Pacific Warm Research Articles

Influences of central Pacific warming on synoptic-scale wave intensity over the northwest Pacific

Influences of central Pacific warming on synoptic-scale wave intensity over the northwest Pacific

Coupled Mg/Ca and Clumped Isotope Measurements Indicate Lack of Substantial Mixed Layer Cooling in the Western Pacific Warm Pool During the Last ∼5 Million Years

AbstractThe Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) plays a crucial role in influencing climate dynamics both in the tropics and globally. Yet, there is an ongoing controversy concerning the evolution of surface temperatures in the IPWP since the Pliocene, which is fueled by contradictory proxy evidence. Temperature reconstructions using TEX86 indicate a gradual cooling by ∼2°C from the Pliocene to today while Mg/Ca‐based studies using planktonic foraminifera do not report any long‐term trends. A bias in Mg/Ca records due to seawater chemistry changes has been suggested as an explanation for this proxy mismatch. Here, we present data from two independent foraminifera‐based temperature proxies, Mg/Ca and clumped isotopes (Δ47), measured on the same samples from IODP Site U1488 in the IPWP. We reconstructed mixed layer and subsurface temperatures and find very good agreement among Mg/Ca and Δ47 when applying a minor correction for changing Mg/Ca ratios of seawater. Diagenetic effects could influence Δ47 but the evaluation of foraminifera preservation at Site U1488 suggests that this effect is unlikely to have masked a long‐term trend in the data. While remaining uncertainties prevent us from fully ruling out particular hypotheses, our study adds evidence that mixed layer temperatures likely did not cool substantially, while subsurface temperatures cooled more strongly since the Pliocene. The substantial Pleistocene cooling previously observed in TEX86 data is consistent with this finding when interpreting it as a combined surface and subsurface signal.

Interdecadal variation of summer rainfall in the Greater Mekong Subregion and its possible causes

This paper investigates the interdecadal variation in summer rainfall over the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) during 1981–2020 and its possible causes, using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station rainfall datasets, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis fifth generation data and the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. The dominant mode of summer rainfall in the GMS features a seesaw pattern with an increase in rainfall over the central–southern GMS and a decrease in rainfall in northwestern Myanmar–Yunnan. The dominant mode of the GMS summer rainfall shows a change in regime around 2001/2002. Interdecadal variability in rainfall is largely related to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Warmer SSTAs in the WPWP lead to interdecadal variation in summer rainfall in the GMS by exciting an anomalous cyclone in the lower troposphere over the southern GMS–South China Sea. This is accompanied by anomalous ascending motions in the central–southern GMS and anomalous descending motions in northern Myanmar–Yunnan. The Matsuno–Gill mechanism, which links SSTAs with interdecadal variations in the GMS summer rainfall, is further confirmed by numerical experiments.

Eastern equatorial Pacific warming delayed by aerosols and thermostat response to CO2 increase

Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains challenging. Here we use a range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 greenhouse warming experiments to assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east–west temperature gradient and corresponding Walker circulation. In abrupt CO2-increase scenarios, many models generate an initial strengthening of this gradient resembling an ocean thermostat, followed by a small weakening; other models generate an immediate weakening that becomes progressively stronger, establishing a pronounced eastern equatorial Pacific warming pattern. The initial response in these experiments is a strong predictor for the intensity of this pattern simulated in both abrupt and realistic warming scenarios, but not in historical simulations showing no multi-model-mean warming trend in this region. The likely explanation is that the recent CO2-driven changes in the tropical Pacific are masked by aerosol effects and a potential ocean-thermostat-related delay, while the eastern equatorial Pacific warming pattern will emerge as greenhouse gases overcome aerosol forcing.

A unique infaunal foraminiferal species tolerance to physical pressure in recent and past sediments of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (IODP, WPWP, Exp. 363)

A unique infaunal foraminiferal species tolerance to physical pressure in recent and past sediments of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (IODP, WPWP, Exp. 363)

Record Arctic Ozone Loss in Spring 2020 is Likely Caused by North Pacific Warm Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Record Arctic Ozone Loss in Spring 2020 is Likely Caused by North Pacific Warm Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Robust Asymmetry of the Future Arctic Polar Vortex Is Driven by Tropical Pacific Warming

AbstractThe future stratosphere is globally dominated by a strong radiative cooling due to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, we find that over North America, the Arctic stratospheric cooling is suppressed or rather warming occurs, whereas over Eurasia stratospheric cooling is most pronounced, leading to an asymmetric polar vortex, based on 21st century climate model simulations. There are many causes that drive polar vortex variability, which make future projections highly uncertain. Our model simulations demonstrate that tropical warming induces the asymmetric polar vortex. The eastern equatorial Pacific warming causes eastward‐shifted teleconnection with a deepened Aleutian low, which strengthens the polar vortex over Eurasia and weakens over North America by enhancing the vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. The asymmetric polar vortex is projected to markedly develop in the 2030s, and so could affect winter surface climate over mid‐ to high‐latitudes of Eurasia in the near future.

Relationship between Boreal Summer Circulation Trend and Destructive Stationary–Transient Wave Interference in the Western Hemisphere

AbstractThis study examines the role of the latent heating in exciting the upper-level circulation anomaly, which destructively interferes with the climatological stationary wave in the Western Hemisphere during boreal summer. This destructive interference pattern closely resembles the circulation trend that is known to be responsible for surface heat extreme trends. To investigate the mechanism behind this circulation anomaly, daily stationary–transient wave interference and related meteorological variables are analyzed using reanalysis data for the period of 1979–2017. Numerical model simulations forced by reanalysis heating anomalies indicate that the destructive interference pattern is most effectively excited by latent heating anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean and eastern Canada. The North Pacific heating anomaly drives circulation anomalies that not only resemble the destructive interference pattern, but also transport moisture into eastern Canada. The resulting latent heating over eastern Canada drives circulation that further reinforces the destructive interference pattern, which includes a prominent high pressure system over Greenland. Tropical heating also plays a role in driving the destructive interference pattern. On intraseasonal time scales, the destructive interference pattern is preceded by suppressed Indo–western Pacific heating and enhanced North American monsoon heating. On decadal time scales, both heating centers have strengthened, but the trend of the North American monsoon heating was greater than that of the Indo–western Pacific heating. These uneven heating trends help to explain the resemblance between the destructive interference pattern and the circulation trend over the Western Hemisphere.

A stronger versus weaker Walker: understanding model differences in fast and slow tropical Pacific responses to global warming

The tropical Pacific response to radiative forcing remains uncertain as projected future changes to the Walker circulation and SST patterns vary substantially among climate models. Here, we study what sets the magnitude and timescales of the response and why they differ across models. Specifically, we compare the fast and slow responses of the tropical Pacific to abrupt CO2 increases (2, 4, 8, 16 × CO2) in two configurations of the same model family (CESM) that differ in horizontal resolution and mean biases. We find that the model with a higher resolution shows a transient ocean thermostat-like response to CO2-forcing, with a stronger Walker cell and lack of warming in the eastern Pacific trade wind belts. This fast response lasts for about 50 years and is followed by a slight Walker cell weakening and equatorial warming. The second model, with a coarser resolution, shows a weak and short-lasting ocean thermostat response, followed by pronounced Walker cell weakening and eastern equatorial Pacific warming, similar to the long-term pattern noted in previous studies. These fast and slow responses also manifest in experiments where CO2 is gradually increased. We relate the magnitude of the fast ocean-thermostat response to the structure of the equatorial thermocline, setting the strength of the Bjerknes feedback. The magnitude and timing of the delayed eastern equatorial Pacific warming are related to the competition of positive feedbacks amplifying the ocean thermostat against the effect of ocean subsurface warming eroding the thermostat. The latter effect is further amplified by the slowdown of oceanic subtropical cells and enhanced extra-tropical warming. Different balances between these effects could explain the large spread in the model future projections for the tropical Pacific.

The North Pacific Blob acts to increase the predictability of the Atlantic warm pool

The Atlantic warm pool (AWP) has profound impacts on extreme weather events and climate variability. Factors influencing the AWP and its predictability are still not fully understood. Other than local ocean–atmosphere feedbacks and El Niño Southern Oscillation, we find an extratropical precursor from the Northeast Pacific (known as the Blob), which leads the AWP by 1 year with a robust correlation (r = 0.68). A suite of Northeast Pacific pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the leading influence of the Blob on the AWP. The preceding summer Blob-related sea surface temperature (SST) warming signal can be transmitted towards the lower latitudes through the seasonal footprint mechanism, leading to the central Pacific warming in the winter and following spring. Such a strong tropical Pacific SST heating excites an anomalous atmospheric wave train that resembles the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. At the downstream portion of the PNA, the low sea surface pressure anomalies can be found over the AWP region during the following spring. The anomalous low initiates the AWP SST warming, and the AWP warmer SST can persist into summer and is further amplified due to ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. Our results show that the North Pacific Blob may act as a useful predictor of the AWP 1 year in advance through trans-basin interactions. A Blob-based prediction model shows considerable hindcast skill for the observed AWP SST anomaly.

Gradually Cooling of the Yellow Sea Warm Current Driven by Tropical Pacific Subsurface Water Temperature Changes Over the Past 5 kyr

AbstractThe integrated effects of ocean‐atmosphere dynamics on the temperature evolution in the western North Pacific marginal seas have remained elusive. In order to study mechanisms controlling southern Yellow Sea (YS) temperature changes, bottom water temperature (BWT) changes were reconstructed for the last 8.8 kyr by using the TEXL86 index, which archives temperature signal of the winter season Yellow Sea Warm Current. Our results reveal a series of abrupt multi‐centennial to millennial scale BWT changes (∼1°C), superimposed on a gradual long‐term cooling (>3°C) trend starting from ∼5 ka to the present. The YS BWT changes are positively correlated with subsurface water temperature changes in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). The Western Pacific Warm Pool subsurface water cooling signal was most likely transmitted by the Kuroshio Current into the southern YS, highlighting the role of WPWP in influencing thermodynamics of the extratropical regions during the Holocene.

The asymmetric influence of ocean heat content on ENSO predictability in the CNRM-CM5 coupled general circulation model

AbstractUnusually high western Pacific oceanic heat content often leads to El Niño about 1 year later, while unusually low heat content leads to La Niña. Here, we investigate if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability also depends on the initial state recharge, and discuss the underlying mechanisms. To that end, we use the CNRM-CM5 model, which has a reasonable representation of the main observed ENSO characteristics, asymmetries and feedbacks. Observations and a 1007-years long CNRM-CM5 simulation indicate that discharged states evolve more systematically into La Niña events than recharged states into neutral states or El Niño events. We ran 70-members ensemble experiments in a perfect-model setting, initialized in boreal fall from either recharged or discharged western Pacific heat content, sampling the full range of corresponding ENSO phases. Predictability measures based both on spread and signal-to-noise ratio confirm that discharged states yield a more predictable ENSO outcome one year later than recharged states. As expected from recharge oscillator theory, recharged states evolve into positive central Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in boreal spring, inducing stronger and more variable Westerly Wind Event activity and a fast growth of the ensemble spread during summer and fall. This also enhances the positive wind stress feedback in fall, but the effect is offset by changes in thermocline and heat flux feedbacks. The state-dependent component of westerly wind events is thus the most likely cause for the predictability asymmetry in CNRM-CM5, although changes in the low-frequency wind stress feedback may also contribute.

Influence of the North American Dipole on ENSO onset as simulated by a coupled ocean–Atmosphere model

The North American Dipole (NAD) is a north–south seesaw pattern of sea level pressure anomalies over the western tropical North Atlantic and northeastern North America. Previous observational studies have demonstrated that the NAD can affect the outbreak of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The present study analyzed the NAD–ENSO relationship as simulated by a coupled ocean–atmosphere model—namely, the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model, gridpoint version 2 (FGOALS-g2). Results indicated that the model can replicate a distinct dipole comprised of a low over northeastern North America and a high over the western tropical North Atlantic, which is the signature feature of the NAD. Further analysis verified that the winter NAD can initiate the central equatorial Pacific warming in the subsequent winter by effectively forcing an anticyclonic flow and sea surface temperature (SST) warming over the northeastern subtropical Pacific (NESP) during late winter or early spring. In addition, the probability of an El Niño event was increased by a factor of 1.8 in the assimilation experiment with the NAD. By comparison, the winter Northern Atlantic Oscillation had no significant impact on the occurrence of ENSO a year later owing to its failure to induce the SST and surface wind anomalies over the NESP.摘要北美偶极子(NAD)是热带北大西洋西部和北美东北部的南北向海平面气压异常偶极型模态.以往的观测研究表明, NAD可以有效地影响ENSO事件的爆发. 本文利用全球耦合模式FGOALS-g2, 评估了NAD与ENSO的关系. 结果表明, 该模式能较好地重现NAD模态. 进一步的分析验证了冬季NAD可以通过强迫冬末春初副热带东北太平洋上空的反气旋和暖海温的出现, 在随后的冬季触发El Niño事件. 此外, 在同化NAD实验中, 发生El Niño事件的概率增加了将近一倍. 相比之下, NAO未能在副热带东北太平洋上空引起表面风和海温的异常, 因而不能有效地激发次年冬季ENSO事件.

The Importance of Central Pacific Meridional Heat Advection to the Development of ENSO

AbstractThe relationship between the Warm Water Volume (WWV) ENSO precursor and ENSO SST weakened substantially after ~2000, coinciding with a degradation in dynamical model ENSO prediction skill. It is important to understand the drivers of the equatorial thermocline temperature variations and their linkage to ENSO onsets. In this study, a set of ocean reanalyses is employed to assess factors responsible for the variation of the equatorial Pacific Ocean thermocline during 1982-2019. Off-equatorial thermocline temperature anomalies carried equatorward by the mean meridional currents associated with Pacific Tropical Cells are shown to play an important role in modulating the central equatorial thermocline variations, which is rarely discussed in the literature. Further, ENSO events are delineated into two groups based on precursor mechanisms: the western equatorial type (WEP) ENSO, when the central equatorial thermocline is mainly influenced by the zonal propagation of anomalies from the western Pacific, and the off-equatorial central Pacific (OCP) ENSO, when off-equatorial central thermocline anomalies play the primary role. WWV is found to precede all WEP ENSO by 6-9 months, while the correlation is substantially lower for OCP ENSO events. In contrast, the central tropical Pacific (CTP) precursor, which includes off-equatorial thermocline signals, has a very robust lead correlation with the OCP ENSO. Most OCP ENSO events are found to follow the same ENSO conditions, and the number of OCP ENSO increases substantially since the 21st century. These results highlight the importance of monitoring off-equatorial subsurface preconditions for ENSO prediction and to understand multi-year ENSO.

Analyzing the effects of sea ice melting and atmospheric heat transport on the warming around arctic based on comparable analysis and coupling modes

The Arctic warming has become a key signal with global climate change in recent decades. In this study, sea ice volume and whole layer atmospheric heat flux divergence were used to represent the local factor and external transport, respectively. The random forest algorithm was adopted to study the nonlinear effects and variations in importance between the local factors and external transport on Arctic warming between 1979 and 2018. The multivariate empirical orthogonal function decomposition method was applied to explore the coupling structure among sea ice volume, heat flux divergence, and temperature at different altitudes, locate the main passages of atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic, and explore the physical mechanisms of extreme Arctic climate events in the past two years. The analysis results suggest that sea ice has a significant impact on lower-level warming, and the atmospheric heat transport is essential in regulating temperature changes in the middle and upper troposphere. Additionally, on an interdecadal scale, the average state of Arctic warming was found to be strongly related to the Arctic Ocean Oscillation index, explaining the warming trend in the Atlantic sector. The trend is jointly controlled by the heat transport passages in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The abrupt change in 2017–2018 was caused by the increased heat transport in the Pacific Ocean and weakened heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean, leading to abnormal warming and cooling near the two passages. On a seasonal scale, heat transport increase in the three passages located in 1) the Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, 2) the Nordic Peninsula and the Barents Sea, 3) the Bering Sea and the East Siberian Sea likely causes regional differences in Arctic summer warming. The increased heat transport in the Bering Sea and East Siberian Sea passage in winter made the Pacific sector significantly warmer. A positive feedback mechanism was created by the change in the circulation field between the temperature and Pacific heat transport.

Weakened feedback of the Indian Ocean on El Niño since the early 1990s

The present paper investigates changes in the feedback of Indian Ocean warming on the western Pacific by using observational data and model experiments. It is found that the relationship between easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific and Indian Ocean warming during the mature and decaying phases of El Nino has changed since 1994. Before 1994, when El Nino reached its peak in the winter, significant warming of the entire Indian Ocean caused tropospheric temperature anomalies and emanated Kelvin waves into the western Pacific. Thus, Indian Ocean warming produced easterly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. However, significant warming of the Indian Ocean has been confined to the west of the Indian Ocean and Kelvin waves have been weakened since 1994. Therefore, the Indian Ocean has contributed less to easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific after 1994. Changes in the intensity and pattern of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode may be responsible for these results. After 1994, the intensity of the IOD, especially the intensity of the cold component of the IOD mode, has become stronger, resulting in Indian Ocean warming being confined to the west of the Indian Ocean. These results are confirmed by numerical model experiments. The paper also discusses the enhancement in the feedback of the north tropical Atlantic on El Nino after 1994.

Over-projected Pacific warming and extreme El Niño frequency due to CMIP5 common biases.

Extreme El Niño events severely disrupt the global climate, causing pronounced socio-economic losses. A prevailing view is that extreme El Niño events, defined by total precipitation or convection in the Niño3 area, will increase 2-fold in the future. However, this projected change was drawn without removing the potential impacts of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models’ common biases. Here, we find that the models’ systematic biases in simulating tropical climate change over the past century can reduce the reliability of the projected change in the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and its related extreme El Niño frequency. The projected Pacific SST change, after removing the impacts of 13 common biases, displays a ‘La Niña-like’ rather than ‘El Niño-like’ change. Consequently, the extreme El Niño frequency, which is highly linked to the zonal distribution of the Pacific SST change, would remain mostly unchanged under CMIP5 warming scenarios. This finding increases confidence in coping with climate risks associated with global warming.

Impacts of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability and Greenhouse Warming on El Niño–Southern Oscillation

AbstractEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate fluctuations with wide-ranging socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Understanding the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño response to a warmer climate is paramount, yet the role of internal climate variability in modulating their response is not clear. Using large ensembles, we find that internal variability generates a spread in the standard deviation and skewness of these two El Niño types that is similar to the spread of 17 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that realistically simulate ENSO diversity. Based on 40 Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and 99 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) members, unforced variability can explain more than 90% of the historical EP and CP El Niño standard deviation and all of the ENSO skewness spread in the 17 CMIP5 models. Both CESM-LE and the selected CMIP5 models show increased EP and CP El Niño variability in a warmer climate, driven by a stronger mean vertical temperature gradient in the upper ocean and faster surface warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, MPI-GE shows no agreement in EP or CP standard deviation change. This is due to weaker sensitivity to the warming signal, such that when the eastern equatorial Pacific surface warming is faster, the change in upper ocean vertical temperature gradient tends to be weaker. This highlights that individual models produce a different ENSO response in a warmer climate, and that considerable uncertainty within the CMIP5 ensemble may be caused by internal climate variability.

Observational constraint on cloud feedbacks suggests moderate climate sensitivity

Global climate models predict warming in response to increasing GHG concentrations, partly due to decreased tropical low-level cloud cover and reflectance. We use satellite observations that discriminate stratocumulus from shallow cumulus clouds to separately evaluate their sensitivity to warming and constrain the tropical contribution to low-cloud feedback. We find an observationally inferred low-level cloud feedback two times smaller than a previous estimate. Shallow cumulus clouds are insensitive to warming, whereas global climate models exhibit a large positive cloud feedback in shallow cumulus regions. In contrast, stratocumulus clouds show sensitivity to warming and the tropical inversion layer strength, controlled by the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient. Models fail to reproduce the historical sea surface temperature gradient trends and therefore changes in inversion strength, generating an overestimate of the positive stratocumulus cloud feedback. Continued weak east Pacific warming would therefore produce a weaker low-cloud feedback and imply a more moderate climate sensitivity (3.47 ± 0.33 K) than many models predict. The response of low clouds to warming is uncertain among climate models and dominates spread in their projections. Satellite estimates of tropical cumulus and stratocumulus cloud feedbacks, derived using surface warming trends, suggest a more moderate climate sensitivity than many models predict.

Cyclostratigraphy and paleoenvironmental inference from downhole logging of sediments in tropical Lake Towuti, Indonesia

Lake Towuti is located on central Sulawesi/Indonesia, within the Indo Pacific Warm Pool, a globally important region for atmospheric heat and moisture budgets. In 2015 the Towuti Drilling Project recovered more than 1000 m of drill core from the lake, along with downhole geophysical logging data from two drilling sites. The cores constitute the longest continuous lacustrine sediment succession from the Indo Pacific Warm Pool. We combined lithological descriptions with borehole logging data and used multivariate statistics to better understand the cyclic sequence, paleoenvironments, and geochronology of these sediments. Accurate chronologies are crucial to analyze and interpret paleoclimate records. Astronomical tuning can help build age-depth models and fill gaps between age control points. Cyclostratigraphic investigations were conducted on a downhole magnetic susceptibility log from the lacustrine facies (10–98 m below lake floor) from a continuous record of sediments in Lake Towuti. This study provides insights into the sedimentary history of the basin between radiometric ages derived from dating a tephra layer (~ 797 ka) and C14-ages (~ 45 ka) in the cores. We derived an age model that spans from late marine isotope stage (MIS) 23 to late MIS 6 (903 ± 11 to 131 ± 67 ka). Although uncertainties caused by the relatively short record and the small differences in the physical properties of sediments limited the efficacy of our approach, we suggest that eccentricity cycles and/or global glacial-interglacial climate variability were the main drivers of local variations in hydroclimate in central Indonesia. We generated the first nearly complete age-depth model for the lacustrine facies of Lake Towuti and examined the potential of geophysical downhole logging for time estimation and lithological description. Future lake drilling projects will benefit from this approach, since logging data are available just after the drilling campaign, whereas core descriptions, though more resolved, only become available months to years later.