Pace Of Fertility Decline Research Articles

Socioeconomic determinants of use and choice of modern contraceptive methods in Ghana

BackgroundThe slow pace of fertility decline in Africa relative to other parts of the world has important implications for the region’s economic development. Modern contraceptive use is seen as important population control and family planning strategy by governments worldwide. This paper examines the socioeconomic determinants of modern contraceptive use and choice among Ghanaian men and women.MethodsWe use the most recent and nationally representative Ghana Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2014. The analysis is observational, with no causal implications. Bivariate and multivariate methods are used to analyse the data. We first use logistic regression to explore the correlates of modern contraceptive use among Ghanaian men and women. Second, we explore the socioeconomic factors influencing the choice of modern contraceptive methods among contraceptive users using multinomial logistic regression. We classify the modern methods of contraception into three groups: long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARC), short-acting contraceptives (SAC), and permanent contraceptives.ResultsMarital status proves to be the most significant predictor for both men and women, with women in monogamous unions having a greater propensity to use modern methods of contraception (OR = 1.4, p < 0.00). We also find that different factors affect the use and choice of modern methods of contraception among men and women in Ghana. Muslim men had a higher likelihood than Catholics to choose the permanent (sterilisation) method (OR = 11.9, p < 0.05), while their female counterparts were 0.25 times less likely to choose sterilisation over SAC (p < 0.05). Moreover, women who ever tested for HIV had higher use of LAC than the SAC ((RRR = 1.6, p < 0.01). The modern contraceptive users (women) with at most basic education were more likely than those with tertiary education to choose LAC over SAC. Finally, rural women with health insurance were 0.75 times (p < 0.01) less likely to use modern methods of contraception.ConclusionsThe paper reiterates the need to intensify and sustain public health education on the health benefits of using modern methods of contraception among the adult population. The paper suggests that including family planning services on Ghana’s national health insurance benefits package is commendable. It can promote modern contraceptive use and curtail unwarranted population growth.

Determinants of Fertility Trend at District, Divisional and Regional Levels and Policy Implication for Poverty Alleviation

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries of the world (1278 persons per sq. km.) but it represents one of the few countries in developing world where the pace of fertility decline has been unparalleled over the last few decades despite pervasive poverty and under-development. It has been passing through a critical phase of fertility transition. The data was collected for this research from the following five sources: i. Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2012-13 for fertility rate, contraceptive use, proportion of children engaged in work and access to mass media and ICT of women. ii. Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh for literacy rate, iii. Population Census 2011 for population density characteristics of different districts, iv. Directorate of Agricultural Extension personnel for daily average wage rate of agricultural labor and v. Bangladesh Poverty Map, 2014 for the level of poverty of different districts. This study contributes to basic knowledge of the structural determinants of fertility rate in the Bangladesh by analyzing the expanded set of determinants at district level, namely contraceptive use, literacy rate, daily wage rate of agricultural labor, population density, child labor, access to mass media and ICT of women and poverty level using spatial data analysis techniques. In this study, the binary join matrix/binary contiguity matrix and inverse distance spatial weight matrix techniques are used to capture spatial dependence in the data. This analysis extends the spatial model by allowing spatial dependence to vary across divisions and regions. The results strongly indicate that the fertility associated with contraceptive use, literacy rate, daily wage rate of agricultural labor, child labor, poverty level and their neighbors’ districts. These results suggest that district should pay particular attention to policies in neighboring districts and policy maker should realize that declining the fertility rate in neighboring districts are likely to affect fertility rate in their own district, therefore, a key issue for policy development is how to stimulate the contraceptive use, educational attainment, promote daily wage of agricultural labor and decrease child labor and poverty level could control the fertility and result in sustainable development and poverty alleviation of regions that are both high fertility and economically lagging. This needs to be addressed both in terms of national level policies and more emphatically within regional and sub-regional development strategies than it has been hither.

Divergence in fertility levels and patterns of muslim-majority countries of maghreb and middle/West Africa

There has been a divergence in the pace of fertility decline between the Muslim-dominated countries of Maghreb and those of Middle/West Africa (despite having similar religious beliefs, which studi...

On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

Accelerating Fertility Decline in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract This paper considers the question, what can governments in sub-Saharan Africa do to accelerate the decline of fertility in the region? It begins with a review and discussion of United Nations projections of fertility for sub-Saharan Africa, and suggests that in light of the stalling of fertility decline that has been observed in some countries of the region, those projections may be optimistic regarding the pace of fertility decline. An overview of the policy environment emphasizes several aspects of government views and policies on fertility and population growth and how they have changed over time, and some differences among sub-regions are noted. The Easterlin framework for fertility analysis serves as the theoretical framework for examination of how existing policies function to influence fertility. The paper concludes by discussing what governments can do to accelerate the decline of fertility.

World population stabilization unlikely this century.

The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.

Analyzing Fertility Trends and Future Prospect through Gompertz Model in Bihar State of India

Several Indian states have achieved or on the way of achieving the replacement level fertility, but the performance of Bihar are far from this. Accordingly, this paper attempts to assess the level and trends of fertility in across districts of fertility and its future prospect. Results shows that TFR is slow decline among districts but yet some districts have high TFR and substantial differences across the socio-economic groups. Contraceptive prevalence rate is marginal differs across the socio-economic groups in the state. Result of Gompertz Model indicates that rate of decline in TFR is decelerate after 1997, Low literacy, Low urbanization preceding poverty are may be other important factors, which may be the cause for decelerate. The projection of result indicates that at present projected TFR for the state is 3.66 (2010), which is far away from target of achieve to replacement of fertility till 2010 by national policy agenda. Moreover the pace of fertility decline seems very slow in coming years. For instance, in 2020 it will reach at the level 2.8 and by 2030 it will reduced only up to 2.2. After very long (2035) time, TFR of the state will achieve at replacement level. The Government’s intervention should focus more first is the local level need based planning for family welfare programmes.

Fertility Levels, Trends and Differentials in Kenya: How Does the Ownchildren Method Add to Our Knowledge of the Transition?

The own-children method of fertility estimation tracks temporal changes in fertility patterns. We revisit the Kenyan fertility transition by applying the method to 1979, 1989 and 1999 censuses, and 1989, 1993, 1998 and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys data. The method's ability to provide yearly fertility rates for periods preceding each data source adds enormous knowledge to fertility patterns. For Kenya, these trends go back through the 1960s. First, the method sheds additional light on the onset of the transition. Second, the trends highlight major differences in the onset and pace of fertility decline among regions and key sub-groups. Third, the rates for overlapping periods provide both internal and external validity checks that heighten confidence in the overall results. Last, it provides a rare opportunity to evaluate birth history fertility rates. Taken together, these estimates provide more detail than ever before regarding fertility patterns in Kenya.

HIGH FERTILITY REGIONS IN BANGLADESH: A MARRIAGE COHORT ANALYSIS

Bangladesh represents one of the few countries in south Asia where the pace of fertility decline has been unprecedented over the last three decades. Although there has been significant reduction in fertility levels at the national level, regional variations continue to persist, especially in Sylhet and Chittagong where the total fertility rates are well above the country average. Using data from three consecutive Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) this paper assesses how fertility patterns in Sylhet and Chittagong differ from the rest of Bangladesh through a marriage cohort analysis of the parity progression ratios, and examines the factors determining the transition rates to higher parity in these two regions. Three cohorts of women are identified: those married during 1965-1974, 1975-84 and 1985-94. The results show that the probability that a woman from the recent cohort in Sylhet or Chittagong who had a third birth will have a fourth birth is nearly twice that of her counterpart in other regions. Social characteristics such as education, occupation, religion and residence have no effect on fertility in Sylhet and Chittagong. Additional period-specific analyses using the 2007 BDHS data show that women in Sylhet are considerably more likely to have a third or fourth birth sooner than those in other divisions, especially Khulna. The findings call for specific family planning policy interventions in Sylhet and Chittagong ensuring gender equity, promoting female education and delaying entry into marriage and childbearing.

Toward Replacement Fertility in Egypt and Tunisia

Egypt and Tunisia began their fertility transition at almost identical fertility levels and at roughly the same time period, yet the difference in the pace of decline has been such that the total fertility rate (TFR) in Tunisia reached replacement level by the year 2001, whereas the TFR in Egypt remains above three live births per woman. This article draws on the secondary literature and on several nationally representative surveys from the two countries between 1978 and 2005 to provide empirical evidence of the difference in the pace of fertility decline and to analyze the determinants of the differential. Findings include (a) variation across the two countries in the consistency of fertility decline among the segments of the population leading the transition; (b) that the success of each country's family planning program was influenced by the role of political leaders and the extent of the program's integration within socioeconomic development objectives; (c) that the impact of contraception on TFR decline became an important factor in the mid-1980s; and (d) that the greatest determinant of the discrepancy in the pace of fertility decline is the disparity in age at marriage, which rose more significantly in Tunisia than in Egypt. The latter finding indicates that reaching replacement fertility in Egypt hinges primarily on further declines in marital fertility, resulting from reduction of wanted fertility and from an expansion of family planning program coverage and improved efficiency of service delivery and use.

The Pace of Fertility Decline in Iran: Finding from the Demographic and Health Survey

The fertility transition experiences of many countries in Asia have been very slow and stalling. Yet, Iranian fertility rates have shown signs of sharp decline. The recent censuses and surveys, both regional and national, all are consistent with a strong declining trend which started in the later part of 1980s and seem to be continuing into the new century. The Demographic and Health Survey of Iran shows below replacement level fertility for urban areas and a very low fertility level for rural areas. A trend analysis of fertility levels suggests an unprecedented pace of fertility transition for Iran. Following Casterline (2001) we attempt to theorize about the cause of fast paced fertility transition. We conclude that the strong emerging economic aspirations among all families in all classes and communities, the high actual and perceptual level of child survival, and very low social and economic cost of birth control have been behind the speed of fertility transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran. We submit that the high economic aspirations of families will not only continue but will shift to higher levels among all classes and especially among the generations entering marriage in the coming years. The strong economic aspiration will curtail their desire for more than one child once they are married. Hence a strong public family planning program must continue to provide birth control supplies and services with low social and economic cost. Any effort to reduce the public support of family planning program will result in socially undesirable consequences such as an increase in abortion.

One and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal.

This paper examines the past and prospective demographic transition in Nepal. Sparse data from the pre-1961 censuses suggest that mortality decline began during 1930s and allow rough estimates of fertility and mortality levels prior to 1961. Fertility decline began sometime between 1961 and early 1980s, with the total fertility rate declining from about 6 to 5 children per woman by early 1990s. The four scenarios of future fertility decline and population growth presented in the paper help draw several conclusions. A continuation of the recent slow pace of fertility decline would result in a total population of slightly over 100 million by the end of the next century (Scenario I). More rapid decline, similar to the median experience of Asian countries, would reduce this growth to below 60 million (Scenario III). Still more rapid decline, close to the limit of what has been observed in countries that have experienced the most rapid declines, could reduce the growth to 40 million (Scenario IV). It is possible, if not at present particularly plausible, that very rapid decline might be achieved by a combination of smaller family sizes and rising age of childbearing. An approach to reaching zero population growth rapidly--and anything less than a doubling of current population--may be ruled out with a high degree of certainty (Scenario II and IV). A doubling of population to 40 million is the least possible growth that can be expected. At the current rate of fertility decline, population will increase to 100 million during this century. If a smaller population in this range is considered to be in the national interest, it is as important to work for more rapid fertility decline as it is to work for accommodation of a much larger population.

Changes in Family-Building Patterns in Egypt and Morocco: A Comparative Analysis

Although both Egypt and Morocco experienced important declines in fertility over the past few decades the pace of that decline was much faster in Morocco than in Egypt. Relatively little is known about the extent to which patterns of family building in both countries explain differentials in the pace of fertility decline. The data for analysis come from the 1980 and 1979-80 World Fertility Surveys conducted in Egypt and Morocco respectively and from each countrys 1995 Demographic and Health Survey. These data are used to calculate life-table estimates of the cumulative proportions of women who progressed to each successive parity within 5 years of the previous one. The data are also used to calculate singulate mean age at marriage and the median length of birth intervals. From the late 1970s to the mid-1990s fertility declined by 44% in Morocco and by 28% in Egypt reflecting a drop in both the level and pace of childbearing. The cumulative proportions of women progressing to each successive parity fell by at least 25% at each parity transition after the transition between a third and fourth birth in Egypt; the pattern was more mixed in Morocco with declines fluctuating between 11% and 27% starting at the transition between a second and third birth. Moreover the median length of time between births increased over the period especially in the intervals between births at parities 2-4 in Morocco (increases of 4.2-4.7 months) and at parities 1-3 in Egypt (increases of 3.0-3.6 months). Among the factors contributing to these fertility declines was a rise over the period in the singulate mean age at marriage (by 5 years in Morocco and by 1 year in Egypt). The adoption of effective family planning programs by both countries which are increasingly enabling women to meet their desire for smaller families may be responsible for the significant changes in the reproductive behavior of married women in Egypt and Morocco. (authors)

Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions

This analysis of fertility transition is conducted among 69 developing countries during 1960-90. It is argued that the relationship between socioeconomic development and the timing and pace of fertility decline is related to level of development regional progress in fertility decline and social interaction. The empirical test is based on the theoretical framework of Notestein and successors. Analysis is based on the UN human development index (HDI) during 1960-85 (life expectancy GDP and literacy). Findings indicate that there is a highly significant negative and nonlinear relationship between HDI and fertility. Fertility was highest among countries with low HDI scores. When HDI was over 0.7 all countries were in transition but there was no fixed threshold for entry into transition. Fertility varied widely among countries at any given level of development. Statistically significant findings and graphic presentation indicate that countries with levels of development over 0.3 in 1960-65 had higher fertility than countries with an HDI of 0.3 in 1985-90. The relationship between fertility and development shifted over time. Transition occurred first in the most industrialized literate and urban provinces of a macroregion and then other provinces in geographic proximity followed regardless of HDI level. Logistic models indicate that development level and years since the beginning of transition in the region were good predictors of transition status in Asia Latin America and Europe. The most rapid declines in fertility occurred in countries that had high levels of development at the onset of transition. How family planning affects the pace and timing of fertility decline cannot be determined. It is posited that the addition of social interaction (ideas evaluation of the merits of ideas social influence and local national and global channels of social interaction) measures to the empirical model would further explain the timing and pace of fertility transition.

The spatial dynamics of U.S. fertility, 1970-1990.

"The fertility downturn in the U.S. since the baby boom has been accompanied by a growing divergence in regional fertility rates. This paper examines the spatial implications of recent fertility trends. Two interrelated questions are posed. First, how and why have the time trends in fertility varied spatially? Second, how have the regional patterns of fertility changed over time? These questions are investigated using a continuous spatio-temporal model of U.S. fertility built using the Dual Expansion Method. Results indicate that the pace of fertility decline has been the most rapid in the Northeast and the slowest in the West. Further, the traditional North-South distinctions in fertility rates are being replaced by East-West patterns. These changes tentatively suggest that regional ethnic composition is becoming an increasingly important factor in accounting for the spatial variation of U.S. fertility."

A multi-level analysis of the determinants of fertility in the four regions of Thailand

A multilevel model of macro and micro variables is used to examine the fertility determinants in the 4 regions of Thailand. The level and pace of fertility decline has varied across regions. Fertility behavior is considered at parity 0, at parities 1-3, and among women with 4 children. Contextual level variables are the status of women, the value of children, infant mortality in 1970, and population pressure. Micro data were obtained from 1970 and 1980 census files for women 15-49 years matched with own children data (aged 1-4 years and born between 1975-79). In general, contextual variables were more important determinants at parity 1-3 and had no effect at parity 0, and individual differences were more important at parity 0. The findings in the regression analyses show consistent results with prior research: older ages effecting a decrease on fertility, migrants having fewer children, higher female education and higher occupational status of husbands lower fertility. When marriage status is controlled at parity 0 the relationship between individual variables and marriage shows sign changes and reduced effects. The effects of individual variables are strongest at parity 4 and over, but affect all parities. Variations between regions on individual variables are small. Contextual variables show less consistency in results. Status of women results show significant negative effects at parity 4 for the central and northern regions. At parity 1-3 the status of women with contextual variables shows status as an important determinant of fertility. Provinces with higher levels of education had lower fertility. The value of children is negatively associated with fertility. The effect is greatest for parity 1-3 women. The north shows significant relationships, while the other regions are inconsistent; the implications are discussed. Infant mortality is not related to fertility except at 0 parity in the north (positive relationship). Population pressure is related to lower fertility in the northeast and south; in the north the results are significant but the sign changes. Only with parity 4 in the south were family planning programs related to lower fertility (negative association); the results are positive in the north and northeast. The policy implications are that increasing the opportunities for women will have an impact on fertility, and fertility would be indirectly affected through improvements in women's status. Decentralization of policy making on fertility is needed along with awareness of the cultural and social environment.

Late fertility decline in the Netherlands: the influence of religious denomination, socio-economic group and region.

The factors affecting the modern decline in fertility in the Netherlands are explored using data from censuses from 1930 to 1971 and additional unpublished sources. Particular attention is paid to the influence of religion, socioeconomic status, and region. The author concludes that "a theory formulated by Lesthaeghe and Wilson on the relation between modes of production and secularization and the pace of fertility decline in Western Europe offers--in combination with van Heek's views on the special position of Dutch Roman Catholicism--a starting point for an explanation of why the fertility decline of Roman Catholics, self-employed and agricultural labourers lagged behind." (summary in FRE)

The Impact of Development and Population Policies on Fertility in India

This article examines the impact of development and population policies on fertility decline and regional variations in India during the 1970s. Indicators of development at the household level include female literacy and education, infant mortality, and poverty; at the village level they include availability of such social services as schools, medical facilities, and transportation and communication facilities. Multiple regression analysis of data aggregated at the state level demonstrates that conditions conducive to fertility decline include high adult female literacy and low infant mortality as indicators of social development, and high contraceptive use and, to a lesser extent, high female age at marriage as proximate determinants of fertility. There are reasons to believe that India's national family planning program contributed to the decline in fertility observed since the 1960s. The pace of fertility decline in the future will depend upon the pace of infant mortality decline, enhancement in female education, and improvements in family planning programs.