Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions

Abstract

This analysis of fertility transition is conducted among 69 developing countries during 1960-90. It is argued that the relationship between socioeconomic development and the timing and pace of fertility decline is related to level of development regional progress in fertility decline and social interaction. The empirical test is based on the theoretical framework of Notestein and successors. Analysis is based on the UN human development index (HDI) during 1960-85 (life expectancy GDP and literacy). Findings indicate that there is a highly significant negative and nonlinear relationship between HDI and fertility. Fertility was highest among countries with low HDI scores. When HDI was over 0.7 all countries were in transition but there was no fixed threshold for entry into transition. Fertility varied widely among countries at any given level of development. Statistically significant findings and graphic presentation indicate that countries with levels of development over 0.3 in 1960-65 had higher fertility than countries with an HDI of 0.3 in 1985-90. The relationship between fertility and development shifted over time. Transition occurred first in the most industrialized literate and urban provinces of a macroregion and then other provinces in geographic proximity followed regardless of HDI level. Logistic models indicate that development level and years since the beginning of transition in the region were good predictors of transition status in Asia Latin America and Europe. The most rapid declines in fertility occurred in countries that had high levels of development at the onset of transition. How family planning affects the pace and timing of fertility decline cannot be determined. It is posited that the addition of social interaction (ideas evaluation of the merits of ideas social influence and local national and global channels of social interaction) measures to the empirical model would further explain the timing and pace of fertility transition.