Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker Research Articles

Pandemic Pass? Treaty Derogations and Human Rights Practices During COVID-19

This research note asks whether states issuing pandemic-era human rights treaty derogations implemented emergency provisions as intended or used them to abuse human rights during a time of crisis. In an effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries declared states of emergency and derogated (temporarily suspended) from their international human rights treaty obligations. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy PanDem dataset and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we find that states that derogated from their international human rights obligations imposed emergency measures that were temporary and did not violate non-derogable rights. On the other hand, states that did not derogate were more likely impose discriminatory measures, enact emergency measures without time limits and violate non-derogable rights. Our results support the role that flexibility mechanisms such as derogations play in international law and show that states are being sincere about their intentions and not, generally, using these mechanisms to cover abusive behavior.

Confinement policies: controlling contagion without compromising mental health

ABSTRACT A growing literature shows that confinement policies used by governments to slow COVID-19 transmission have negative impacts on mental health, but the differential effects of individual policies on mental health remain poorly understood. We used data from the COVID-19 questionnaire of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which focuses on populations aged 50 and older, and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for 28 countries to estimate the effects of eight different confinement policies on three outcomes of mental health: insomnia, anxiety and depression. We applied robust machine learning methods to estimate the effects of interest. Our results indicate that closure of schools and public transportation, restrictions on domestic and international travel, and gathering restrictions did not worsen the mental health of older populations in Europe. In contrast, stay at home policies and workplace closures aggravated the three health outcomes analysed. Based on these findings, we close with a discussion of which policies should be implemented, intensified, or relaxed to control the spread of the virus without compromising the mental health of older populations.

Battle to Survive: The Association Between Accountability and Chinese Local Government Response to COVID-19

ABSTRACT China’s ability to sustain the zero-COVID strategy over three years has garnered global attention, but little is known about the factors contributing to its long-term adherence. Based on the political promotion tournament model, this article theorizes that China’s strict administrative accountability system, which tied local officials’ career prospects to their performance in crucial policy goals, incentivized local governments to sustain COVID-19 policies. Using data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and major official Chinese media outlets, we performed interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to examine whether the accountability events affected the local government’s COVID-19 responses. Noticeably, our analyses found that from May 4, 2020, to September 30, 2022, when an accountability event happened, officials in the affected (local effects) and unaffected (spillover effects) provinces all increased their containment responses and decreased their economic support responses. This is true even for provinces without new localized outbreaks. The effects of accountability events increased with decreasing geographical distance. These findings remain consistent after several robustness checks. The administrative accountability system is a key institutional factor in implementing China’s zero-COVID strategy, which contributed to the global literature about the pandemic policy process in centralized countries.

Containment Measures and Alcohol Consumption Among Drinking Higher Education Students Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multilevel Analysis in 25 Countries.

Hazardous alcohol use tends to be more prominent among higher education students. The COVID-19 pandemic severely altered student life, raising questions on its impact on students' alcohol use patterns. The current study examined cross-country variations in drinking behaviors (weekly drinking and binge drinking), and the extent to which these variations were associated with containment measures implemented during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were obtained from the COVID-19 International Student Well-being Study, covering students in 25 middle- and upper-high income countries. Data on government responses were retrieved from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Multilevel multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed on weekly drinking (n = 44,212) and binge drinking (n = 32,785). Considerable cross-country variation existed for weekly drinking and binge drinking. In the majority of countries, a self-reported decrease in weekly drinking and a substantial self-reported decrease in binge drinking were observed. Closings of schools were associated with decreases in weekly drinking, while limitations on social gatherings were associated with increases in weekly drinking. The stringency index was associated with reporting decreased binge drinking. The study findings demonstrate a number of small yet significant associations between containment measures and changes in student drinking behaviors. Future studies are required to uncover why some students increased their alcohol consumption, particularly in countries with stricter limitations on social gatherings.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries

PurposeNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis.We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor – COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker – OxCGRT.MethodsNPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5–25, and C4-C6, weeks 35–52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others).ResultsDuring the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries.ConclusionIn the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT).

Pediatric suicide attempts lagged during the COVID-19 pandemic: a European multicenter study

BackgroundElevated rates of suicidal behavior were reported during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, information is scarce on patients’ profiles during this period. Studies evoke the potential adverse effects of the mandatory lockdown, but they remain relatively speculative.MethodsWe monitored fluctuations in suicide attempts (SA) in six European countries. We gathered data, retrospectively for under 18-year-old SA episodes (1 January 2018 to 31 December 2021), through records of psychiatric emergency services. We collected clinical profiles individually. We extracted environmental indicators by month, as provided by Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). We used the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) method to identify breakpoints in SA episodes reported for each country, and logistic regressions to estimate changes in patients’ characteristics after the breakpoints. Finally, we used a univariate and multivariate negative binomial model to assess the link between SA and OxCGRT indicators, accounting for the delay (lag) between the interventions and their impact on SA.ResultsThe study comprised 2,833 children and adolescents (mean age = 15.1 years (SD 1.6); M: F sex-ratio = 1:5.4). A significant increase in SA was found either 6 or 10 months after the beginning of the pandemic, varying by country. Patients were more likely to be girls (aOR = 1.77 [1.34; 2.34]) and used SA methods “other than self-poisoning” (aOR = 1.34 [1.05; 1.7]). In the multivariate model, an association was found between SA and the contact tracing indicator with an 11 months delay, and the number of COVID-19 deaths with a 3-months delay.ConclusionsFindings confirmed a delayed increase in SA during the COVID-19 pandemic in children and adolescents as well as changes in patients’ profiles. The duration and severity of the pandemic emerged as the strongest predictor in the rise of SA. If faced with a similar pandemic in the future, the gap between the onset of pandemic and the increase in suicide attempts presents an opportunity for prevention.

Time series analysis of COVID-19 stringency measures on the spatio- temporal dynamics of air pollution

Introduction: Execution of COVID-19 lockdown measures caused variations in air pollution worldwide. This paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 stringency measures on the spatio-temporal dynamics of air pollution in Mumbai, India, using a comprehensive two-and-a-half-year pandemic period dataset. Materials and methods: We classified the pandemic period into 7 phases and 21 sub-phases based on the severity of the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) Stringency Index (SI). Optimized Hotspot analysis (OHS) and Ordinary Least Square Regression models explored the spatio-temporal fluctuations and the effect of stringency measures on air quality. Results: The R2 value varied; with the best model R2 of 0.61 for Particulate Matters (PM10) and Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and lowest of 0.23 for Sulfur dioxide (SO2). A 10-point increase in SI caused a 3-7% reduction in air pollutants. Substantial reduction in average PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and Carbon monoxide (CO) was observed throughout the COVID-19 phases. Meteorology and SI collectively caused maximum reduction of 82.6%, 72.7%, 53.8%, 52.2%, 49.1%, 28.4% for NO2, PM2.5, PM10, NH3, CO, and SO2 respectively, during complete or extreme lockdown phases. Except SO2, seasonality significantly influenced the pollutant concentrations. Winter was the worst period while monsoon was the best. OHS identified central Mumbai wards as hotspots and areas close to the national park as coldspots. Conclusion: PM10, NO2 and CO were more affected by SI measures than NH3 and SO2. For a rapid emergency response to high PM10, implementation of SI, very high (≥ 80 score) and above is advised. Findings of this study have significant public health policy implications, especially among global south nations.

State COVID-19 Policies and Drug Overdose Mortality Among Working-Age Adults in the United States, 2020.

Objectives. To identify relationships between US states' COVID-19 in-person activity limitation and economic support policies and drug overdose deaths among working-age adults in 2020. Methods. We used county-level data on 140 435 drug overdoses among adults aged 25 to 64 years during January 2019 to December 2020 from the National Vital Statistics System and data on states' COVID-19 policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to assess US trends in overdose deaths by sex in 3138 counties. Results. Policies limiting in-person activities significantly increased, whereas economic support policies significantly decreased, overdose rates. A 1-unit increase in policies restricting activities predicted a 15% average monthly increase in overdose rates for men (incident rate ratio [IRR] = 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09, 1.20) and a 14% increase for women (IRR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.09, 1.20). A 1-unit increase in economic support policies predicted a 3% average monthly decrease for men (IRR = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.95, 1.00) and a 4% decrease for women (IRR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.93, 0.99). All states' policy combinations are predicted to have increased drug-poisoning mortality. Conclusions. The economic supports that states enacted were insufficient to fully mitigate the adverse relationship between activity limitations and drug overdoses. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(7):714-722. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307621).

The long-term effect of COVID-19 policy stringency on consumer food demand quantities in Switzerland

This is the first study investigating the effect of COVID-19 policy stringency on consumer food demand for the years 2020 and 2021. In particular, we compared food demand in periods with strict COVID-19 policies to food demand in periods with less strict COVID-19 policies. For this purpose, we used Switzerland, which imposed two COVID-19 lockdowns, as a case study. To test this link, we applied fixed effects dummy variable regressions (as baseline estimates) and dose–response functions. To capture the stringency of Swiss COVID-19 policies, we relied on daily data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Food demand data at the product level came from the combined retail and consumer panel of the market research company Nielsen and covered meat, milk products, vegetables, and fruits. Empirical findings revealed that consumer demand for all food products was on average 2.5 times higher during the two lockdowns compared to periods without lockdowns. While we found no statistically significant differences in consumer food demand between the two lockdowns for milk products, vegetables, and fruits, the total food demand and the demand for meat was higher during the first lockdown. Increases in Swiss food demand were likely caused by the closing of restaurants (both lockdowns) and the closing of borders to neighboring countries (only the first lockdown), preventing shopping tourism. Against the background of potential future pandemics, our research provides important information for policymakers on the quantification of food demand changes in times of crisis.

Crisis Leadership in the Time of Covid: Effects of Personality Traits on Response Speed

Abstract Why were some countries faster than others at introducing COVID-19 mitigation policies? Existing research shows that leaders are central to defining and making sense of crises, which then shapes their governments’ crisis response. I argue that crisis-sense-making depends on leaders’ personality traits pertaining to how they perceive their power status, collect and process information, and interact with their environment, subsequently influencing their governments’ crisis response speed. I test this argument in the context of the European experience with COVID-19, combining an original Leadership Traits Analysis dataset of thirty-two leaders with the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker data. I show that leaders who were highly self-confident or exhibited a tendency to challenge constraints were significantly slower at introducing pandemic mitigation policies. Leaders who were open to information were significantly faster to do so. I also show that policy emulation between countries over time dissipated the slowing effects of the leaders’ need for power and conceptual complexity on response speed. The results present new and systematic evidence on how leader personality shaped pandemic policy-making, contributing to the literature on crisis policy-making and political leadership. They also offer science advisors food for thought on how to communicate with leaders.

Effects of Face Mask Mandates on COVID-19 Transmission in 51 Countries: Retrospective Event Study.

The question of the utility of face masks in preventing acute respiratory infections has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, given the inconclusive evidence from existing randomized controlled trials, evidence based on real-world data with high external validity is missing. To add real-world evidence, this study aims to examine whether mask mandates in 51 countries and mask recommendations in 10 countries increased self-reported face mask use and reduced SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers and COVID-19 case growth rates. We applied an event study approach to data pooled from four sources: (1) country-level information on self-reported mask use was obtained from the COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey, (2) data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker provided information on face mask mandates and recommendations and any other nonpharmacological interventions implemented, (3) mobility indicators from Google's Community Mobility Reports were also included, and (4) SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers and COVID-19 case growth rates were retrieved from the Our World in Data-COVID-19 data set. Mandates increased mask use by 8.81 percentage points (P=.006) on average, and SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers declined on average by -0.31 units (P=.008). Although no significant average effect of mask mandates was observed for growth rates of COVID-19 cases (-0.98 percentage points; P=.56), the results indicate incremental effects on days 26 (-1.76 percentage points; P=.04), 27 (-1.89 percentage points; P=.05), 29 (-1.78 percentage points; P=.04), and 30 (-2.14 percentage points; P=.02) after mandate implementation. For self-reported face mask use and reproduction numbers, incremental effects are seen 6 and 13 days after mandate implementation. Both incremental effects persist for >30 days. Furthermore, mask recommendations increased self-reported mask use on average (5.84 percentage points; P<.001). However, there were no effects of recommendations on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers or COVID-19 case growth rates (-0.06 units; P=.70 and -2.45 percentage points; P=.59). Single incremental effects on self-reported mask use were observed on days 11 (3.96 percentage points; P=.04), 13 (3.77 percentage points; P=.04) and 25 to 27 (4.20 percentage points; P=.048 and 5.91 percentage points; P=.01) after recommendation. Recommendations also affected reproduction numbers on days 0 (-0.07 units; P=.03) and 1 (-0.07 units; P=.03) and between days 21 (-0.09 units; P=.04) and 28 (-0.11 units; P=.05) and case growth rates between days 1 and 4 (-1.60 percentage points; P=.03 and -2.19 percentage points; P=.03) and on day 23 (-2.83 percentage points; P=.05) after publication. Contrary to recommendations, mask mandates can be used as an effective measure to reduce SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers. However, mandates alone are not sufficient to reduce growth rates of COVID-19 cases. Our study adds external validity to the existing randomized controlled trials on the effectiveness of face masks to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Development of New Stringency Indices for Nonpharmacological Social Distancing Policies Implemented in Korea During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Random Forest Approach.

In the absence of an effective treatment method or vaccine, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic elicited a wide range of unprecedented restriction policies aimed at mitigating and suppressing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These policies and their Stringency Index (SI) of more than 160 countries were systematically recorded in the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) data set. The SI is a summary measure of the overall strictness of these policies. However, the OxCGRT SI may not fully reflect the stringency levels of the restriction policies implemented in Korea. Korea implemented 33 COVID-19 restriction policies targeting 4 areas: public facilities, public events, social gatherings, and religious gatherings. This study aims to develop new Korea Stringency Indices (KSIs) that reflect the stringency levels of Korea's restriction policies better and to determine which government-implemented policies were most effective in managing the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea. The random forest method was used to calculate the new KSIs using feature importance values and determine their effectiveness in managing daily COVID-19 confirmed cases. Five analysis periods were considered, including November 01, 2020, to January 20, 2021 (Period 1), January 20, 2021, to June 27, 2021 (Period 2), November 01, 2020, to June 27, 2021 (Period 3), June 27, 2021, to November 01, 2021 (Period 4), and November 01, 2021, to April 24, 2022 (Period 5). Among the KSIs, public facilities in period 4, public events in period 2, religious gatherings in periods 1 and 3, and social gatherings in period 5 had the highest importance. Among the public facilities, policies associated with operation hour restrictions in cinemas, restaurants, PC rooms, indoor sports facilities, karaoke, coffee shops, night entertainment facilities, and baths or saunas had the highest importance across all analysis periods. Strong positive correlations were observed between daily confirmed cases and public facilities, religious gatherings, and public events in period 1 of the pandemic. From then, weaker and negative correlations were observed in the remaining analysis periods. The comparison with the OxCGRT SI showed that the SI had a relatively lower feature importance and correlation with daily confirmed cases than the proposed KSIs, making KSIs more effective than SI. Restriction policies targeting public facilities were the most effective among the policies analyzed. In addition, different periods call for the enforcement of different policies given their effectiveness varies during the pandemic.

Volunteering and instrumental support during the first phase of the pandemic in Europe: the significance of COVID-19 exposure and stringent country’s COVID-19 policy

BackgroundThe COVID-19 control policies might negatively impact older adults’ participation in volunteer work, instrumental support provision, and the likelihood of receiving instrumental support. Studies that quantify changes in these activities and the related factors are limited. The current study aimed to examine the level of volunteering, instrumental support provision and receipt before and during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and to determine whether older adults’ volunteering, instrumental support provision and receipt were associated with individual exposure to COVID-19 and the stringency of country’s COVID-19 control policy during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsA cross-sectional survey using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) Corona Survey 1 was designed to focus on community-dwelling Europeans aged ≥50 years. History of participation in volunteering work and instrumental support provision or receipt was assessed from the previous SHARE Wave data. The country’s COVID-19 control policy stringency index (S-Index) was from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker database. A total of 45,669 respondents from 26 European countries were included in the volunteering analysis. Seventeen European countries were included in the analyses of instrumental support provision (N = 36,518) and receipt (N = 36,526). The multilevel logistic regression model was fitted separately to analyse each activity.ResultsThe level of volunteering and instrumental support provision was lower during the pandemic, but instrumental support receipt was higher. The country S-Index was positively associated with support provision (OR:1.13;95%CI:1.02–1.26) and negatively associated with support receipt (OR:0.69;95%CI:0.54–0.88). Exposure to COVID-19 was positively associated with support receipt (OR:1.64;95%CI:1.38–1.95). COVID-19 exposure on close ones positively associated with volunteering (OR:1.47;95%CI:1.32–1.65), support provision (OR:1.28;95%CI:1.19–1.39), and support receipt (OR:1.25;95%CI:1.15–1.35).ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic impacted older Europeans’ volunteering, instrumental support provision, and instrumental support receipt from outside their household. When someone close to them was exposed to COVID-19, older Europeans were likely to receive instrumental support and to volunteer and provide instrumental support. A stricter country’s COVID-19 control policy might motivate older adults to provide instrumental support, but it prevents them from receiving instrumental support from outside their households.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Sweden—Did it differ across socioeconomic groups?

The characterization of the socioeconomic profile of COVID-19 mortality is limited. Likewise, the mapping of potential indirect adverse outcomes of the pandemic, such as suicide and alcohol abuse, along socioeconomic lines is still meagre. The main aim of this paper is to (i) depict SES-differences in COVID-19 mortality, and (ii) to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide and alcohol mortality across socioeconomic groups. We used Swedish monthly data spanning the period January 2016–December 2021. We chose education as indicator of socioeconomic status (SES). The following causes of deaths were included in the analysis: COVID-19, all-cause mortality excluding COVID-19, suicide and a composite index of alcohol-specific deaths. SARIMA-modelling was used to assess the impact of the pandemic on suicide and alcohol-specific mortality. Two alternative measures of the pandemic were used: (1) a dummy that was coded 1 during the pandemic (March 2020 and onwards), and 0 otherwise, and (2) the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker’s Stringency Index. There was a marked SES-gradient in COVID-19 mortality in the working-age population (25–64) which was larger than for other causes of death. A SES-gradient was also found in the old-age population, but this gradient did not differ from the gradient for other causes of death. The outcome from the SARIMA time-series analyses suggested that the pandemic did not have any impact on suicide or alcohol-specific mortality in any of the educational and gender groups.

Do Scholars Respond Faster Than Google Trends in Discussing COVID-19 Issues? An Approach to Textual Big Data.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has posed various difficulties for policymakers, such as the identification of health issues, establishment of policy priorities, formulation of regulations, and promotion of economic competitiveness. Evidence-based practices and data-driven decision-making have been recognized as valuable tools for improving the policymaking process. Nevertheless, due to the abundance of data, there is a need to develop sophisticated analytical techniques and tools to efficiently extract and analyze the data. Methods: Using Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we categorize the policy responses into 6 different categories: (a) containment and closure, (b) health systems, (c) vaccines, (d) economic, (e) country, and (f) others. We proposed a novel research framework to compare the response times of the scholars and the general public. To achieve this, we analyzed more than 400,000 research abstracts published over the past 2.5 years, along with text information from Google Trends as a proxy for topics of public concern. We introduced an innovative text-mining method: coherent topic clustering to analyze the huge number of abstracts. Results: Our results show that the research abstracts not only discussed almost all of the COVID-19 issues earlier than Google Trends did, but they also provided more in-depth coverage. This should help policymakers identify core COVID-19 issues and act earlier. Besides, our clustering method can better reflect the main messages of the abstracts than a recent advanced deep learning-based topic modeling tool. Conclusion: Scholars generally have a faster response in discussing COVID-19 issues than Google Trends.

PoliSEAmaking: Accountabilities in Economic Responses to COVID-19 of Southeast Asian Governments

This paper examines the connection between governments’ accountability and their responses to the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19 through the lens of competing principals approach. Given that governments’ sense of accountability towards groups of principals may vary, it may affect the policy outcomes as well. In the case of Covid-19 pandemic, the dilemma manifests in the extent to which the governments spend their resources on economic assistance to the people. By using the ever-growing corpus of data on economic responses, such as The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) as well as the compilation of several measures for political accountabilities, regime types, and COVID-related public health, this study finds that, unlike other regions in the world, the only type of accountability predicting Southeast Asian (SEA) governments’ level of economic support to the people is diagonal accountability leveraged by the media and civil societies (CSOs). This finding not only illustrates the dilemma faced by the governments as an agent in a multi-principal scenario, but also indicate that a) SEA governments generally do not feel directly liable to its people; b) they do not feel pressured by the check and balances mechanisms of formal institutions, either; and c) they only feel obligated to do something when the issue is being publicized in the news or mobilized by the CSOs.

An assessment of the Philippines government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic based on policy response indices

COVD-19 has resulted in governments worldwide implementing policies for pandemic suppression or containment. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) global database of pandemic policy responses provide open access data to allow for national assessments of pandemic response policies. Using OxCGRT data for the Philippines, we assessed the temporal trends of pandemic response indices and indicators. Using principal components and principal coordinate analyses, OLS and logistic regression on the ordinal policy response variables, composite policy response indices, and epidemiological estimates of pandemic spread, we assess which policy response is most significant in pandemic management. Stringency and Restrictions to Internal Movement are most significant and this reflects on the primary policing and securitizing strategy used by the Philippines government in the pandemic response. This has limited effective outcomes based on its relationships with health, economic and vaccination policy categories. We contextualize these findings with the outcomes of the government’s vaccination policy.

The mortality and years of life lost for community-acquired pneumonia before and during COVID-19 pandemic in China

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of mortality worldwide, but disease burden of CAP is not clear so far. We aim to explore the spatial and temporal trends of mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to CAP during 2013-2021 in mainland China, especially the mortality changes before and during COVID-19 pandemic due to COVID-19 related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We used data from the National Mortality Surveillance System to estimate the age-standardized rates of death and YLL of CAP at national and provincial level in China during 2013-2021. Monthly and provincial NPIs data were obtained from Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. The Average annual percentage change (AAPC) and mortality reduction were estimated by log-linear regression and interrupted time series, respectively. In China, most CAP that caused deaths had no clear etiology, and bacterial pneumonia and viral pneumonia were the leading 2 causes among CAP deaths with determined etiology before and during COVID-19 pandemic. The age-standardized CAP mortality rate decreased from 11.18 per 100,000 in 2013 to 8.76 per 100,000 in 2019, and to 5.74 per 100,000 in 2021 (AAPC-4.51% vs-7.89%). Trends were similar in age-standardized rate of YLL. Both rates declined more for viral pneumonia, compared with bacterial pneumonia. After adjusting for NPIs at provincial level after 2020, the NPIs for COVID-19 was associated with significant reductions in CAP mortality (-0.34 per 100,000,-0.41 to-0.27; p<0.0001), and provinces that economically developed and conducted strict regular NPIs against COVID-19 contributed the most reduction. We observed a decreasing trend of age-standardized CAP mortality from 2013 to 2019, and a dramatical reduction during COVID-19 pandemic, especially for viral pneumonia. Our study provided the evidence for the effectiveness of regular NPIs on the significant reductions in CAP mortality. This work has been supported by Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project Z191100006619101, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS 2021-I2M-1-048), CAMS Institute of Respiratory Medicine Grant for Young Scholars (2023-ZF-8) and the New Cornerstone Science Foundation.

Similarities and Differences in the Manifestations of the COVID-19 Epidemic Process in Some Countries

Relevance. The pandemic of a new coronavirus infection has become an unprecedented challenge for modern society. It took the entire population of the Earth by surprise, changing the lives of millions of people in the world in record time. Governments of different countries have reacted differently to the pandemic. The list of preventive measures and the timeliness of their adoption differed. Comparing and evaluating the experience of different countries and emergency response systems will help in the future to use best practices and models to combat future biological threats. The aim of the study was to identify and describe the features of the manifestation of the COVID-19 epidemic process in a number of countries, taking into account the ongoing anti-epidemic and preventive measures, and to hypothesize about the main factors that could potentially influence the differences in the manifestation of the COVID-19 epidemic process. Materials and methods. The choice of countries was conditioned by the purpose to compare the manifestations of epidemic process in our country with the great powers and economies of the world - USA and China and countries (Republic of Belarus and Sweden), which did not introduce lockdown and did not follow all WHO recommendations. To achieve this goal, a descriptive research method was used based on open source data, an analysis of relevant Russian and foreign literature was carried out (scientific electronic libraries PubMed and Elibrary; open sources of statistical information: Yandex DataLens Public: Coronavirus: Dashboard, Johns Hopkins University website, United Nations Population Division, World Bank, Global Panel Database on COVID-19 Pandemic Policy (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker), as well as the website of the World Health Organization (WHO), Our World in Data, Rospotrebnadzor and some media). Conclusion. The lowest incidence rate is observed in China (on average 315.1 per 100 thousand population [95% CI 314.8–315.4]), and the highest is in the USA (9957.7 per 100 thousand population [95% CI 9954.5–9960.9]). In terms of the number of tests conducted, the United States and Russia are in the lead. To date, the highest vaccination coverage and vaccination rate are observed in the PRC and amount to 92.4% and 90.1%, respectively. In general, these indicators do not reach 95% in all countries, which requires improving the quality of immunoprophylaxis measures. Anti-epidemic measures in the studied countries differed in their set, scope and severity of implementation. In China, Russia and the USA were held in full, and in Belarus and Sweden only partially, some of the events were not held at all. Thanks to the rapid creation of effective vaccines in Russia and China, it was possible to delay the onset of pronounced increases in morbidity at a later date, which, in turn, helped to reduce the burden on the healthcare system. At the same time, despite the obvious relevance of COVID-19, the question of a comprehensive study of the alleged risk factors (biological, social and natural) is still open. There is a certain probability that the virus will now be permanently present in the global population (it will become a seasonal disease).

Were public interventions relevant for containing the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil in 2020?

Flattening the curve was the most promoted public health strategy worldwide, during the pandemic, to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and, consequently, to avoid overloading the healthcare systems. In Brazil, a relative success of public policies was evidenced. However, the association between public policies and the "flatten the curve" objectives remain unclear, as well as the association of different policies to reach this aim. This study aims to verify if the adoption of different public policies was associated with the flattening of the infection and death curves by covid-19 first wave in 2020. Data from the Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe (Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System - SIVEP-Gripe) and the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE) were used to compute standardized incidence and mortality rates. The Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) was used to obtain information about governmental responses related to the mitigation of pandemic effects, and the Human Development Index (HDI) was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. A non-linear least-square method was used to estimate parameters of the five-parameter sigmoidal curve, obtaining the time to reach the peak and the incremental rate of the curves. Additionally, ordinary least-square linear models were used to assess the correlation between the curves and the public policies adopted. Out of 51 municipalities, 261,326 patients had SARS-CoV-2 infection. Stringency Index was associated with reducing covid-19 incremental incidence and death rates,in addition to delaying the time to reach the peak of both pandemic curves. Considering both parameters, economic support policies did not affect the incidence nor the mortality rate curves. The evidence highlighted the importance and effectiveness of social distancing policies during the first year of the pandemic in Brazil, flattening the curves of mortality and incidence rates. Other policies, such as those focused on economic support, were not effective in flattening the curves but met humanitarian and social outcomes.