The long-term effect of COVID-19 policy stringency on consumer food demand quantities in Switzerland

Abstract

This is the first study investigating the effect of COVID-19 policy stringency on consumer food demand for the years 2020 and 2021. In particular, we compared food demand in periods with strict COVID-19 policies to food demand in periods with less strict COVID-19 policies. For this purpose, we used Switzerland, which imposed two COVID-19 lockdowns, as a case study. To test this link, we applied fixed effects dummy variable regressions (as baseline estimates) and dose–response functions. To capture the stringency of Swiss COVID-19 policies, we relied on daily data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Food demand data at the product level came from the combined retail and consumer panel of the market research company Nielsen and covered meat, milk products, vegetables, and fruits. Empirical findings revealed that consumer demand for all food products was on average 2.5 times higher during the two lockdowns compared to periods without lockdowns. While we found no statistically significant differences in consumer food demand between the two lockdowns for milk products, vegetables, and fruits, the total food demand and the demand for meat was higher during the first lockdown. Increases in Swiss food demand were likely caused by the closing of restaurants (both lockdowns) and the closing of borders to neighboring countries (only the first lockdown), preventing shopping tourism. Against the background of potential future pandemics, our research provides important information for policymakers on the quantification of food demand changes in times of crisis.