Overview Of Trends In Mortality Research Articles

Global trends in cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence and mortality.

Mortality from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) increased in the past, but trends have been favorable in more recent years in many high-income countries. However, incidence has been increasing in several countries. We provided an up-to-date overview of mortality trends from CMM. We analyzed death certification data from the WHO in selected countries worldwide from 1980 to the most recent available calendar years. We also reported incidence data derived from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents from 1990 to 2012. Separate analyses were performed for young adults aged 20-44 and middle-aged adults aged 45-64 years. Mortality from CMM in all age groups showed a favorable pattern in the majority of the countries considered. Mortality trends declined by 40 to 50% in Australia over the last decades, confirming the importance of prevention measures. Considering young adults aged 20-44, Australia, New Zealand and Northern Europe reported the highest death rates for both sexes (>0.90/100 000 in men and >0.60/100 000 in women) while Japan, the Philippines, and Latin America the lowest ones (<0.50/100 000 and <0.35/100 000 in men and women, respectively). Incidence trends were stable or upward in most countries, with higher rates among women. Our study highlights a global reduction of CMM mortality over the last three decades. The increasing awareness of risk factors, mainly related to UV exposure, along with early diagnosis and progress in treatment for advanced disease played pivotal roles in reducing CMM mortality, particularly in Australia.

Global, regional, and national temporal trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years for cardiovascular disease attributable to low temperature during 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease 2019 study.

Few studies have focused on the region-specific relationship between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and low temperature worldwide. We aimed to provide an overview of trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CVD and its subtypes attributable to low temperature over the past 30 years in 204 countries and regions, along with the associations of these trends with age, period, and birth cohorts. Data on the estimated burden of CVDs (including ischemic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, and stroke) attributable to low temperature were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We utilized an age-period-cohort model to estimate overall annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 15 ~ 19 to 81 ~ 85 years (local drifts), and period and cohort relative risk (period/cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019. Among noncommunicable diseases, CVDs had the highest mortality rate and DALY loss attributable to low temperature worldwide and has increased from 65.7 to 67.3%, which is mainly attributed to the increase in East Asia and Pacific region. In terms of the level of economic and social development, an inverted U-shape was found in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) due to low-temperature across different sociodemographic indices (SDI) regions. Both high CVD mortality (19.45, 95% CI [14.54, 24.17%]) and a decreasing mortality rate related to low temperature (from 1990 to 2019, net drift, -3.25% [-3.76, 2.73%] per year) was found in high SDI countries or territories, with opposite outcome found in low SDIs regions. The older adults (70+) and men share the highest rate of CVD ASMR and DALY attributed to low temperature across all regions, especially in North America and Europe and Central Asia. Mortality and DALY loss from CVD attributable to low temperature showed an overall decreasing trend globally except for East Asia and Pacific region. SDI, sex, age and geographic location contributed to the diversity of the CVD disease burden associated with low temperature worldwide. More attention should be given to the older adults, men, and low SDI regions.

National burden of cancer in Italy, 1990\u20132017: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017

We monitored the burden of cancer in Italy and its trends over the last three decades, providing estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for cancer overall and 30 cancer sites using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. An overview of mortality trends between 1990 and 2017 was also provided. In 2017, there were 254,336 new cancer cases in men and 214,994 in women, corresponding to an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 438 and 330/100,000, respectively. Between 1990 and 2017, incident cancer cases, and, to a lesser extent, ASIRs significantly increased overall and for almost all cancer sites, but ASIRs significantly declined for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms. In 2017, there were 101,659 cancer deaths in men (age-standardized death rate, ASDR, 158.5/100,000) and 78,918 in women (ASDR 93.9/100,000). Cancer deaths significantly increased between 1990 and 2017 (+ 18%), but ASDR significantly decreased (− 28%). Deaths significantly increased for many cancer sites, but decreased for stomach, esophageal, laryngeal, Hodgkin lymphoma, and testicular cancer. ASDRs significantly decreased for most neoplasms, with the main exceptions of cancer of the pancreas and uterus, and multiple myeloma. In 2017, cancer caused 3,204,000 DALYs. Between 1990 and 2017, DALYs and age-standardized DALY rates significantly declined (-3.4% and -33%, respectively). Age-standardized mortality rates in Italy showed favorable patterns over the last few decades. However, the absolute number of cancer cases and, to a lower extent, of cancer deaths increased likely due to the progressive ageing of the population, this calling for a continuous effort in cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment.

Progress in cancer mortality, incidence, and survival: a global overview.

Cancer mortality has declined over the last three decades in most high-income countries reflecting improvements in cancer prevention, diagnosis, and management. However, there are persisting and substantial differences in mortality, incidence, and survival worldwide. In order to provide an up-to-date overview of trends in mortality, incidence, and survival, we retrieved data from high-quality, population-based cancer registries for all cancers and 10 selected cancer sites in six high-income countries and the European Union. We computed age-standardized (world standard population) mortality and incidence rates, and applied joinpoint regression models. Mortality from all cancers and most common cancer sites has declined over the last 25 years, except for the pancreas and lung (in women). The patterns for incidence are less consistent between countries, except for a steady decrease in stomach cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in men. Survival for all cancers and the selected cancer sites increased in all countries, even if there is still a substantial variability. Although overall cancer death rates continue to decline, incidence rates have been levelling off among men and have been moderately increasing among women. These trends reflect changes in cancer risk factors, screening test use, diagnostic practices, and treatment advances. Many cancers can be prevented or treated effectively if they are diagnosed early. Population-based cancer incidence and mortality data can be used to focus efforts to decrease the cancer burden and regularly monitor progress towards cancer control goals.

Divergences in trends in child and adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Survey evidence on the survival of children and siblings

This paper provides an overview of trends in mortality in children aged under 5 and adults between the ages of 15 and 60 in sub-Saharan Africa, using data on the survival of the children and siblings collected in Demographic and Health Surveys. If conspicuous stalls in the 1990s are disregarded, child mortality levels have generally declined and converged over the last 30–40 years. In contrast, adult mortality in many East and Southern African countries has increased markedly, echoing earlier increases in the incidence of HIV. In recent years, adult mortality levels have begun to decline once again in East Africa, in some instances before the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy programmes. More surprising is the lack of sustained improvements in adult survival in some countries that have not experienced severe HIV epidemics. Because trends in child and adult mortality do not always evolve in tandem, we argue that model-based estimates, inferred by matching indices of child survival onto standard mortality schedules, can be very misleading.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000)

To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases.

Mortality from unintentional injuries in Japan, 1899-1998.

Clark et al. presented interesting findings on injury mortality in East Germany in terms of social changes.1 In fact, injury mortality trends reflect histories of societies. Here I provide an example from Japan, with an overview of trends in mortality due to unintentional injuries over the past 100 years. Mortality data presented here were derived from governmental statistical records.2,3 Figure 1 ▶ shows mortality due to unintentional injuries, by sex, between 1899 and 1998. Historically, men have been more likely than women to be killed as a result of unintentional injuries. Death rates for both sexes for 1923 and 1995 were exceptionally high owing to significant earthquakes that occurred in those years. It is also noteworthy that there was a sharp decline in mortality in the 1970s followed subsequently by a slight increase in the 1990s. FIGURE 1— Mortality from unintentional injuries: Japan, 1899–1998. Figures 2 and 3 ▶ ▶ show mortality due to motor vehicle crashes and other unintentional injuries between 1947 and 1998. Mortality due to motor vehicle crashes increased consistently after the end of the Second World War. However, rates began to decrease rapidly in the early 1970s. FIGURE 2— Male mortality from motor vehicle crashes and other unintentional injuries: Japan, 1947–1998. FIGURE 3— Female mortality from motor vehicle crashes and other unintentional injuries: Japan, 1947–1998. Conversely, mortality due to other unintentional injuries continued to fall through the late 1980s but rose gradually during the 1990s as a result of the increased mortality rates among older adults owing to suffocation, drowning, and falls (data not shown). The reduced mortality from all unintentional injuries during the 1970s was proportional to the reduced mortality from motor vehicle crashes, whereas the increase occurring in the 1990s reflected elevated mortality due to other unintentional injuries. The trends just described were consistent for both sexes. The relationship between mortality due to motor vehicle crashes, mortality due to other unintentional injuries, and mortality due to all unintentional injuries was similar between males and females. Male mortality consistently exceeded female mortality, but there were exceptions in the case of particular unintentional injuries. For example, in 1959, elevated mortality due to unintentional injuries not stemming from motor vehicle crashes was more prominent in females. The reason is that females were more victimized by natural disasters (typhoons and floods) that occurred in that year. Increased mortality rates due to motor vehicle crashes were accompanied by an increase in the number of car owners.4 However, the mortality rates have dramatically declined since 1970. In that year, the country's first traffic law was put in force, and traffic safety began to be planned and implemented nationwide.5 This regulation effectively reduced motor vehicle crashes. After decreasing constantly over the years as a result of public health efforts, mortality due to non–motor vehicle unintentional injuries began to rise in the 1990s. Examination of this trend by age group showed that mortality due to suffocation, drowning, and falls among older adults had increased in recent years.6 This result may be associated with restricted physical functioning in later adulthood; however, other factors, such as living circumstances, could be related as well. For instance, in the past 2 decades, the number of individuals 65 years or older who live alone or only with their spouse has increased 4-fold.7 Further investigation is required to confirm such potential effects of social factors on unintentional injuries.