Outright Monetary Transactions Program Research Articles

How have the European central bank\u2019s monetary policies been affecting financial markets in CEE-3 countries?

This paper aims to contribute to the growing pool of literature on the spillover effects of the European Central Bank’s (un)conventional monetary policies on the exchange rate, sovereign bond and equity markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland (CEE-3 countries), which are collectively known as the CEE-3 countries. The study is conducted using daily data from January 2010 to September 2019. Our results indicate that the financial markets of the CEE-3 countries have been strongly influenced by the nonstandard measures enacted by the European Central Bank, particularly those involving purchases of euro-area sovereign debt. The strongest spillover effects were identified for the Securities Markets Program, while the effects from the Outright Monetary Transactions program turned out to be the most durable. At the same time, the financial markets of the CEE-3 countries were found to have been largely unaffected by interest rate changes enacted by the European Central Bank.

The evolution of European economic institutions during the COVID-19 crisis.

This article argues that the incomplete economic and institutional integration of the euro area has exposed the monetary union to increasing economic divergence, which could be deepened by the COVID‐19 crisis. We discuss how monetary and fiscal measures implemented at the onset of the pandemic have contributed to mitigate the economic consequences of lockdowns, but provided limited insurance to narrow economic gaps across member countries. However, EU countries agreed on July 21, 2020 to develop, for the first time, countercyclical fiscal transfers financed by common debt issuance. We discuss the potential of this instrument to contribute to improve the resilience of the eurozone.

What were they thinking? Firms' expectations since the financial crisis

PurposeThis paper explores how firms formed their expectations about the availability of bank finance since the financial crisis. Various expectations hypotheses that incorporate backward and/or forward-looking elements and inattention are tested. From a policy perspective, the most important hypothesis is whether policy announcements have a direct impact on the expectations of companies.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is based on a large sample of euro area companies from the ECB “Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises” between 2009 and 2018. Ordered logit models are used to relate individual replies on expectations to firms' information available at the time of the forecasts. The model controls for the business cycle and firms' structural characteristics. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we test how policy announcements may affect expectations.FindingsFirms update what otherwise look like adaptive expectations on the basis of new information. The hypothesis of rational expectations is rejected. Moreover, we do not find evidence of inattention or of a wave of pessimism/optimism. The analysis of expectations around the time of the ECB Outright Monetary Transactions program provides some evidence of forward-looking expectations.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the literature on expectations by using a novel survey in eleven countries. In the multi-country setting, country-specific business cycle effects and waves of pessimism or optimism are better controlled for. The policy announcements of summer 2012 provide for a natural experiment to test the direct impact of such announcements on expectations, an issue of relevance for the monetary policy transmission to economic activity.

‘We Serve the People of Europe’: Reimagining the ECB's Political Master in the Wake of its Emergency Politics

AbstractIn the wake of the Euro crisis, the mission statement on the European Central Bank's (ECB) website was changed from ‘Our mission is to serve Europe's citizens’ to ‘Our mission is to serve the people of Europe’. This article situates this discursive shift within a broader change of the ECB's self‐presentation in public discourses and explores its meaning in terms of political theory and public law. The article argues that the shift represents a response to the perceived necessity of reimagining the ECB's foundation of legitimate governmental authority following its exercise of emergency powers during the Euro crisis. The discourse emphasizes an organic link between the ECB and ‘the people of Europe’ as a political subject able to authorize previously unauthorized governmental practices such as the outright monetary transactions programme. It reflects, furthermore, a new governing philosophy that stresses flexibility and discretion rather than strict adherence to rules in the ECB's exercise of power.

Givers or Recipients? Co-Movements between Stock Markets of CEE-3 and Developed Countries

In this paper, time-varying co-movements between the stock markets of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the capital markets of developed countries in stable and crisis periods are studied. The parameters of the VAR-AGDCC-GARCH (Vector Autoregressive- Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model are estimated, and volatility spillovers are calculated. The evidence suggests that the level of correlation between stock return shocks of Central and Eastern European countries increased significantly in the period of financial turmoil and was high in the period of the US sub-prime crisis, as well as during the euro area sovereign debt crisis. After the announcement of the OMT (Outright Monetary Transactions) program, the evolution of the stock market indices in Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs) have followed different paths. An analysis of the volatility spillovers indicates that CEECs are the recipients of volatility. In the period of 2004–2019, they received much volatility—from Germany and the US, in particular. They also received much volatility from Spain during the euro area sovereign debt crisis. After 2012, volatility transmission to Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary dropped significantly.

Monetary Policy, Product Market Competition and Growth

In this paper we argue that monetary easing fosters growth more in more credit‐constrained environments, and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition. Indeed, when competition is low, large rents allow firms to stay on the market and reinvest optimally, no matter how funding conditions change with aggregate conditions. To test this prediction, we use industry‐level and firm‐level data from the euro area to look at the effects on sectoral growth and firm‐level growth of the unexpected drop in long‐term government bond yields following the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions programme (OMT) by the European Central Bank. We find that the monetary policy easing induced by OMT contributed to raising sectoral (firm‐level) growth more in more highly leveraged sectors (firms), and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition in the country (sector).

Firms’ Expectations on the Availability of Credit Since the Financial Crisis

Using a large set of firm-level survey data from the euro area since 2009, we analyse how firms use their information to form expectations on the availability of bank finance. Our results suggest that firms update what otherwise look like adaptive expectations on the basis of the latest information in their information set. As in the previous literature, the hypothesis that expectations fulfil the (orthogonality) conditions of the rational expectations hypothesis is rejected by the data. We find evidence that this is not only due to information imperfections but also to some type of misspecification of the expectations’ model that firms are using. In addition, we find some evidence that companies that have not used bank finance recently tend to do worse at forecasting its availability next period. To test how policy announcements may affect expectations, we concentrate on the possible effects of the ECB policy announcements of summer 2012, which included among other things the announcement of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions Program (OMT). Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence of forward-looking expectations. In particular, shortly after the OMT announcement the forecast of “informed” firms were more upbeat compared to the control group of firms. This moreover was true in both vulnerable and non-vulnerable countries, suggesting that it was the relevance of the information about the future of the banking system that most mattered for expectations at the time, more than the immediate impact of the announced policy measures. JEL Classification: C83, D22, D84

Financial Integration in Europe Through the Lens of Composite Indicators

This paper develops composite indicators of financial integration within the euro area for both price-based and quantity-based indicators covering money, bond, equity and banking markets. Prior to aggregation, individual integration indicators are harmonised by applying the probability integral transform. We find that financial integration in Europe increased steadily between 1995 and 2007. The subprime mortgage crisis marked a turning point, bringing about a marked drop in both composite indicators. This fragmentation trend reversed when the European banking union and the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions Programme were announced in 2012, with financial integration recovering more strongly when measured by price-based indicators. In a growth regression framework, we find that higher financial integration tends to be associated with an increase in per capita real GDP growth in euro area countries. This correlation is found to be stronger the higher a country's growth opportunities. JEL Classification: F36, F43, F45, G01, G15

Financial Integration in Europe Through the Lens of Composite Indicators

This paper develops composite indicators of financial integration within the euro area for both price-based and quantity-based indicators covering money, bond, equity and banking markets. Prior to aggregation, individual integration indicators are harmonised by applying the probability integral transform. We find that financial integration in Europe increased steadily between 1995 and 2007. The subprime mortgage crisis marked a turning point, bringing about a marked drop in both composite indicators. This fragmentation trend reversed when the European banking union and the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions Programme were announced in 2012, with financial integration recovering more strongly when measured by price-based indicators. In a growth regression framework, we find that higher financial integration can be associated with an increase in per capita real GDP growth in euro area countries. In times of high financial stress, however, such a positive correlation between financial integration and growth seems to break down.

Do SMEs Benefit from Unconventional Monetary Policy and How? Microevidence from the Eurozone

AbstractWe study the impact of the announcement of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) Outright Monetary Transactions Program on small firms’ access to finance using a matched firm‐bank data set from eight Eurozone countries. We find that following the announcement, credit access improved relatively more for firms borrowing from banks with high balance sheet exposures to impaired sovereign debt, with such firms less likely to be refused a loan or to be price rationed. Loan terms also improved as manifested by lengthening of loan maturities. Unconventional monetary policy has a positive impact on firms’ investment and profitability, while its effect on firm innovation is weaker.

The importance of being earnest

PurposeThis paper aims to provide an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the Eurozone from 2000 until August 2012, when the Outright Monetary Transactions programme was launched.Design/methodology/approachThe authors constructed an unbalanced panel with quarterly data from 2000 Q1 to 2012 Q2 for the 12 Eurozone countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. The authors propose a model that explains spreads through the main categories of variables observed in the literature. The relationship between variables is analysed using ordinary least squares and quantile regressions. As discussed by the authors, quantile regressions provide a more precise estimation, given the huge heterogeneity across counties that can be observed in the Eurozone.FindingsResults show that the relationship between sovereign risk and macroeconomic fundamentals is affected by a strong country sentiment effect. The impact of country sentiment on sovereign risk is larger for those countries that were already experiencing higher spreads. Regardless the impact that European Central Bank’s (ECB) intervention had on sovereign risk from 2012, quantile regression results suggest that policy recommendations and goals should be adapted to each country’s market perception.Originality/valueThe results obtained improve on previous findings on this topic (De Grauwe and Ji, 2012) in two ways. First, they show that even introducing every category of determinants found in the literature in the main specification, fundamentals can only partially explain the evolution of sovereign risk in the Eurozone. Second, they find there is a country-sentiment effect that affects the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and sovereign risk. Furthermore, the paper finds that the country-sentiment effect is larger for countries facing high spreads.

La Banque centrale européenne et la crise des dettes souveraines : politique monétaire, politique économique ou état d’exception ?

L’affaire Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), qui a vu s’opposer le Tribunal constitutionnel fédéral allemand et la Cour de justice de l’Union européenne (CJUE) sur la question de la conformité au droit de l’Union européenne de l’action de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) lors de la crise des dettes souveraines de 2010-2012, constitue sans aucun doute, à ce jour, l’illustration la plus éclatante de la controverse relative à l’existence (ou non) d’une mutation constitutionnelle tacite du mandat de la BCE. Dans son arrêt du 21 juin 2016, le Tribunal constitutionnel fédéral confirme la conformité du programme monétaire OMT au droit de l’Union et à la Loi fondamentale allemande, mais n’en maintient pas moins de « sérieuses objections » à l’encontre du raisonnement de la CJUE, témoignant ainsi de la persistance de certaines tensions entre, d’une part, les interventions de la BCE et, d’autre part, les dispositions du Traité sur le fonctionnement de l’Union européenne (TFUE) relatives à ses compétences.

Monetary Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth

In this paper we argue that monetary easing fosters growth more in more credit-constrained environments, and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition. Indeed when competition is low, large rents allow firms to stay on the market and reinvest optimally, no matter how funding conditions change with aggregate conditions. To test this prediction, we use industry-level and firm-level data from the Euro Area to look at the effects on sectoral growth and firm-level growth of the unexpected drop in long-term government bond yields following the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions program (OMT) by the ECB. We find that the monetary policy easing induced by OMT, contributed to raising sectoral (firm-level) growth more in more highly leveraged sectors (firms), and the more so the higher the degree of product market competition in the country (sector).

Risk assessment on euro area government bond markets – The role of governance

Since the announcement of the outright monetary transactions program (OMT) government bond yield spreads have decreased substantially, but have not fallen to pre-crisis levels. This paper argues that the debt-to-GDP ratio has become less relevant as a determinant for government bond spreads, while financial markets have become more concerned about the willingness and the capability to cooperate with the institutions that conduct the adjustment programs since the announcement of OMT. The paper links the willingness and the capability to cooperate to political stability and the quality of governance, for which the indicators are available from the World Bank. By means of a time-varying coefficient approach it can be shown that the coefficient for a composite World Bank indicator on the quality of governance has outpaced other possible determinants of government bond spreads since the announcement of OMT.

Saving Face? The German Federal Constitutional Court DecidesGauweiler

The German Federal Constitutional Court has issued its long-awaited judgment in theGauweiler Case.The Court ruled that the policy decision on the Outright Monetary Transactions programme (OMT programme) does not manifestly exceed the competences attributed to the European Central Bank (ECB) and does not manifestly violate the prohibition of monetary financing of the budget, if interpreted in accordance with the preliminary ruling of the European Court of Justice (Court). This article surveys the Court's decision and offers a critical commentary on this important case.

Gauweiler and the Outright Monetary Transactions Programme: The Mandate of the European Central Bank and the Changing Nature of Economic and Monetary Union

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The German Constitutional Court and Preliminary References—Still a Match not Made in Heaven?

So far, the German Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht, henceforth:BVerfG) has only made a single preliminary reference to the (now) Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), despite frequent rulings on matters connected with European Union (EU) Law. Its apparent reluctance seemed odd considering the atmosphere of dialogue and cooperation which prevails between the non-constitutional courts and the EU courts. This situation might, however, have changed with the preliminary reference from January 2014, proving predictions on the perceived “most powerful constitutional court” and its relationship to the EU partly wrong. The legal effects of its preliminary reference on the interpretation of Articles 119, 123, 127 ff. of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) and the validity of Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) by the European Central Bank (ECB) under EU Law are as yet unclear; although the Opinion of the Advocate General Cruz Villalón was delivered in the beginning of 2015, which did not confirm the doubts expressed by theBVerfGabout the conformity of the OMT programme with EU law. Nonetheless, the interpretative scheme and the normative questions as to the reluctance of theBVerfGremain the same after this single referral and offer explanations as to why theBVerfGhad for nearly sixty years not referred a question to the former European Court of Justice (ECJ).

Doubtful it Stood…: Competence and Power in European Monetary and Constitutional Law in the Aftermath of the CJEU's OMT Judgment

Quite unsurprisingly, the CJEU has held that the ECB's OMT program does not violate EU law. In accordance with this holding, I argue in the first part of this note that the OMT program does not transgress the ECB's mandate under the Treaty, which is often interpreted too narrowly, in particular by German legal scholars. Furthermore, I argue that a violation of the prohibition of monetary financing of the member States as enshrined in article 123, para 1 TFEU cannot be inferred from the ECB's announcement of a program, which has never been implemented. In any case, there is clearly no manifest and grave transgression of EU competences which, according to the German Federal Constitutional Court's (FCC)Honeywelldoctrine, is required for an ultra vires finding. The second part of this note shows that the FCC's doctrine regarding transgressions of competences by EU organs (ultra vires review) is not only unconvincing as a matter of principle but also and worse (as on premises we can always reasonably disagree) not consistently applied to the OMT program. The note also objects to the Court's somewhat trendy blending of ultra vires and constitutional identity review of EU law through which it increasingly conceals its approach of applying the so-called constitutional constraints of European integration to the EU organs' conduct. The forthcoming FCC judgment is therefore less important as regards the quite foreseeable finding on the lawfulness of the OMT program but – hopefully – of vital importance as it might embody a more coherent relaunch of the FCC's standards of judicial review with regard to EU law.The judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) on the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2012 announcement of future Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) comes as no surprise. It had not been expected that the CJEU would interpret the European Economic and Monetary Union's (EMU) Treaty provisions the way the FCC had “suggested.” Neither had it seemed conceivable that the CJEU would reject the FCC's request for a preliminary ruling holding that a legally non-binding assessment of the EU action's lawfulness could not be requested under Article 267 TFEU. The judgment had nevertheless been awaited for with tension for two reasons: First, in the vigorous and in part very critical debate about the ECB's competences under the TFEU and its alleged ultra vires action a judgment by the CJEU was necessary to settle the fundamental European law issues at stake. This is all the more important with regard to the ECB's current Expanded Asset Purchase Program (EAPP) as well as its interconnection with the European Stability Mechanism's (ESM) financial assistance programs. The CJEU's holdings on the ECB's competences within the EMU framework are discussed in the first part of this note regarding the distinction between monetary and economic policy (infra section A.I.) and the interpretation of Article 123, paragraph 1 TFEU which prohibits monetary financing of the member States by the ECB (infra section A.II.). Second, it was clear that the judgment would shape the new stage in the changing and sometimes explosive on-off relationship between the CJEU and the FCC, the stage entered into by Karlsruhe's first ever request for a preliminary ruling. The FCC had fortified its ultra vires doctrine and clearly indicated its readiness not to follow the CJEU but to insist on the notorious “last word” of the German Constitution instead. Thus, the second part of this note discusses the constitutional legal premises of the FCC's approach and the procedural and substantial manner in which the FCC tries to scrutinize the ECB's OMT program (infra sections B.I. and B.II.). In this context, possible scenarios for the upcoming judgment (infra section C.I.) and consequences for European multi-level constitutionalism (infra section C.II.) will be discussed.

Sustainability vs credibility of fiscal consolidation

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explain why some countries in the eurozone between 2010 and 2012 experienced a dramatic vicious circle between hard austerity plans and rising default risk premia. Were such plans too small, and hence non-credible, or too large, and hence non-sustainable? These questions have prompted theoretical and empirical investigations in the line of the so-called “self-fulfilling beliefs”, where beliefs of unsustainability of fiscal adjustments, and hence default on debt, feed higher risk premia which indeed make fiscal adjustments less sustainable. Design/methodology/approach – Detecting the sustainability factor in the evolution of spreads is uneasy because it is largely non-observable and may be proxied by different variables. In this paper, the authors present the results of a dynamic principal components factor analysis (PCFA) applied to a panel data set of the 11 major EZ countries from 2000 to 2013, consisting of each country’s spread of long-term interest rate over Germany as dependent variable, and an array of leading fiscal and macroeconomic indicators of solvency fiscal effort and its sustainability. Findings – The authors have been able to identify the role of these indicators that combine themselves as significant latent variables in boosting spreads. Moreover, the large joint deterioration of these variables is identifiably located between 2009 and 2012 and particularly for the group of countries under most severe default risk (with Italy and France as borderline cases). The authors also find evidence that the announcement of the European Central Bank Outright Monetary Transactions program has improved the sustainability assessment of sovereign debts. Originality/value – Dynamic PCFA is a rather unusual technique with respect to standard econometric tests of models, which is particularly well-suited to reduce the number of variables in a data set by extracting meaningful linear combinations from the observed variables that may concur to explain a given phenomenon (the dependent variable). These combinations, called “common factors”, can be interpreted as latent, non-observable variables.

ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?

Paul De Grauwe's Eurozone fragility hypothesis states that sovereign debt markets in a monetary union without a lender-of-last-resort are vulnerable to self-fulfilling dynamics fuelled by pessimistic investor sentiment that can trigger default. We test this contention by applying an eclectic methodology to a two-year window around Mario Draghi's “whatever-it-takes” pledge that can be understood as the implicit announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program. A principal components analysis reveals that the perceived commonality in default risk among peripheral and core Eurozone sovereigns increased after the announcement. An event study reveals significant pre-announcement news transmission from Spain to Italy, France, Belgium and Austria that clearly dissipates post-announcement. Country-specific regressions of CDS spreads on systematic risk factors reveal frequent days of large adverse shocks affecting simultaneously those five Eurozone countries, but only during the pre-announcement period. Altogether these findings support the fragility hypothesis and endorse the OMT program.