This paper investigates the global sensitivity of high-pressure-turbine (HPT) first stage cascades aerothermal characteristics and blade cooling performance under the influence of combustor swirl and hot spot. The combustor outflow conditions impact on turbine working performance and robustness. This paper is focused on the influence of uncertain combustor swirling flow and hot spot, rather than deterministic working conditions. A simplified combustor outflow simulation method is firstly proposed, and the effects of combustor outflow are quantified by combining chaos polynomial expansion with Sobol’ decomposition method. The results show that different rotating directions of the swirl lead to restricted influences on the averaged aerothermal performance of the turbine stage, but significantly affects its robustness. The positive swirl increases the total pressure loss generated by the lower passage vortex of the stator cascade, and the high uncertainty region of the stator cascade total pressure loss profile is the combined products of the residual swirl and the interaction between the passage vortex and mainstream. The total pressure loss of the rotor cascade due to leakage vortex has low sensitivity to the hot spot and swirl strength, while the total pressure loss generated by the passage vortex is affected by hot spot temperature. Temperature distribution affected by the passage vortex is sensitive to swirl strength. Generally, uncertainty variance of stage aerothermal parameters with positive swirl is about 30% larger than that of the negative case, since the positive swirl has stronger interactions with the blades, leading to more significant uncertainty. However, the averaged heat transfer coefficients with positive swirl are 37% less sensitive, compared to the negative swirl case. The results give better understanding on the influence mechanisms of turbine inflow conditions, emphasize the meaning of investigating uncertain characteristics of the turbine cascades. Investigations of this article provide reference for robust turbine blade cooling design.
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