Outer Planets Research Articles

The ESO SupJup Survey. III. Confirmation of 13CO in YSES 1 b and Atmospheric Detection of YSES 1 c with CRIRES+

High-resolution spectroscopic characterization of young super-Jovian planets enables precise constraints on elemental and isotopic abundances of their atmospheres. As part of the ESO SupJup Survey, we present high-resolution spectral observations of two wide-orbit super-Jupiters in YSES 1 (or TYC 8998-760-1) using the upgraded VLT/CRIRES+ ( R∼100,000 ) in K-band. We carry out free atmospheric retrieval analyses to constrain chemical and isotopic abundances, temperature structures, rotation velocities ( vsini ), and radial velocities. We confirm the previous detection of 13CO in YSES 1 b at a higher significance of 12.6σ, but point to a higher 12CO/13CO ratio of 88 ± 13 (1σ confidence interval), consistent with the primary’s isotope ratio 66 ± 5. We retrieve a solar-like composition in YSES 1 b with a C/O = 0.57 ± 0.01, indicating a formation via gravitational instability or core accretion beyond the CO iceline. Additionally, the observations lead to detections of H2O and CO in the outer planet YSES 1 c at 7.3σ and 5.7σ, respectively. We constrain the atmospheric C/O ratio of YSES 1 c to be either solar or subsolar (C/O = 0.36 ± 0.15), indicating the accretion of oxygen-rich solids. The two companions have distinct vsini , 5.34 ± 0.14 km s−1 for YSES 1 b and 11.3 ± 2.1 km s−1 for YSES 1 c, despite their similar natal environments. This may indicate different spin axis inclinations or effective magnetic braking by the long-lived circumplanetary disk around YSES 1 b. YSES 1 represents an intriguing system for comparative studies of super-Jovian companions and linking present atmospheres to formation histories.

An ultra-short-period super-Earth with an extremely high density and an outer companion

We present the discovery and characterization of a new multi-planetary system around the Sun-like star K2-360 (EPIC 201595106). K2-360 was first identified in K2 photometry as the host of an ultra-short-period (USP) planet candidate with a period of 0.88 d. We obtained follow-up transit photometry, confirming the star as the host of the signal. High precision radial velocity measurements from HARPS and HARPS-N confirm the transiting USP planet and reveal the existence of an outer (non-transiting) planet with an orbital period of ∼\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\sim$$\\end{document}10 d. We measure a mass of 7.67±0.75\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$7.67 \\pm 0.75$$\\end{document} M⊕\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$M_{\\oplus }$$\\end{document} and a radius of 1.57±0.08\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$1.57 \\pm 0.08$$\\end{document} R⊕\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_{\\oplus }$$\\end{document} for the transiting planet, yielding a high mean density of 11±2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$11 \\pm 2$$\\end{document} g cm-3\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\hbox {cm}^{-3}$$\\end{document}, making it the densest well-characterized USP super-Earth discovered to date. We measure a minimum mass of 15.2±1.8\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$15.2 \\pm 1.8$$\\end{document} M⊕\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$M_{\\oplus }$$\\end{document} for the outer planet, and explore a migration formation pathway via the von Zeipel–Kozai–Lidov (ZKL) mechanism and tidal dissipation.

Self-consistent N-body simulation of planetesimal-driven migration. I. The trajectories of single planets in the uniform background

Abstract Recent exoplanet observations have revealed a diversity of exoplanetary systems, which suggests the ubiquity of radial planetary migration. One powerful known mechanism of planetary migration is planetesimal-driven migration (PDM), which can let planets undergo significant migration through gravitational scattering with planetesimals. In this series of papers, we present the results of our high-resolution, self-consistent N-body simulations of PDM, in which gravitational interactions among planetesimals, the gas drag, and Type I migration are all taken into account. In this first paper (Paper I), we investigate the migration of a single planet through PDM within the framework of the classical standard disk model (the minimum-mass solar nebula model). Paper I aims to improve our understanding of planetary migration through PDM, addressing previously unexplored aspects of both the gravitational interactions among planetesimals and the interactions with disk gas. Our results show that even small protoplanets can actively migrate through PDM. Such active migration can act as a rapid radial diffusion mechanism for protoplanets and significantly influence the early stages of planetary formation (i.e., during the runaway growth phase). Moreover, a fair fraction of planets migrate outward. This outward migration may offer a potential solution for the “planet migration problem” caused by Type I migration and gives a natural mechanism for outward migration assumed in many recent scenarios for the formation of outer planets.

Main-belt comets as contributors to the near-Earth objects population

Aims. Most studies of the dynamics of main-belt objects describing the evolution of the bodies in inner Solar System have been carried with models that include weak nongravitational forces, such as the Yarkovsky and YORP effects. Only about 19 objects exhibit cometary-type activity, with sublimation being the principal mechanism. This paper presents a study of the influence of cometary- type nongravitational forces on the dynamics of main-belt comets, and the possible paths and timescales of evolution into other Solar System regions. Methods. We used the standard Marsden model for cometary-type activity. This model was designed for elongated orbits and the continuous ejection of mass, while the main-belt comets exhibit a different mode of activity. For this reason, we propose a simple model of nongravitational force activation that is consistent with observations. The dynamical evolution of objects was studied using a fifteenth-order RADAU integrator implemented in the REBOUND package. Results. The paper presents the dynamical routes of main-belt comets in the inner Solar System when cometary-type nongravitational forces are included in calculations. The forces significantly shorten the time of transition to other regions compared to the Yarkovsky effect, shortening this time to as little as a few thousand years depending on the frequency of the activity and the A1, A2, and A3 Marsden constants. There is a large probability of a transition to near-Earth object(NEO)-type orbits for bodies with A2 < 0, which means that cometary-type nongravitational forces can be a non-negligible mechanism increasing the number of bodies in that population. The forces can also deliver active main-belt objects into mean motion resonances but can equally eject bodies into outer planetary regions on far shorter timescales than the Yarkovsky and YORP effects. Cometary-type nongravitational effects should be included in dynamical studies of individual sublimating active asteroids.

Disc and atmosphere composition of multi-planet systems

In protoplanetary discs, small millimetre-centimetre-sized pebbles drift inwards which can aid in planetary growth and influence the chemical composition of their natal discs. Gaps in protoplanetary discs can hinder the effective inward transport of pebbles by trapping the material in pressure bumps. In this work, we explore how multiple planets change the vapour enrichment by gap opening. For this, we extended the chemcomp code to include multiple growing planets and investigated the effect of 1, 2, and 3 planets on the water content and C/O ratio in the gas disc as well as the final composition of the planetary atmosphere. We followed planet migration over evaporation fronts and found that previously trapped pebbles evaporate relatively quickly and enrich the gas. We also found that in a multi-planet system, the atmosphere composition can be reduced in carbon and oxygen compared to the case without other planets, due to the blocking of volatile-rich pebbles by an outer planet. This effect is stronger for lower viscosities because planets migrate further at higher viscosities and eventually cross inner evaporation fronts, releasing previously trapped pebbles. Interestingly, we found that nitrogen remains super-stellar regardless of the number of planets in the system such that super-stellar values in N/H of giant planet atmospheres may be a tracer for the importance of pebble drift and evaporation.

HD 28185 revisited: an outer planet, instead of a brown dwarf, on a Saturn-like orbit

ABSTRACT As exoplanet surveys reach ever-higher sensitivities and durations, planets analogous to the Solar system giant planets are increasingly within reach. HD 28185 is a Sun-like star known to host a $m\sin i=6~M_\mathrm{ J}$ planet on an Earth-like orbit; more recently, a brown dwarf with a more distant orbit has been claimed. In this work, we present a comprehensive re-analysis of the HD 28185 system, based on 22 yr of radial velocity (RV) observations and precision Hipparcos–Gaia astrometry. We confirm the previous characterization of HD 28185 b as a temperate giant planet, with its $385.92^{+0.06}_{-0.07}$ d orbital period giving it an Earth-like incident flux. In contrast, we substantially revise the parameters of HD 28185 c; with a new mass of $m=6.0\pm 0.6~M_\mathrm{ J}$, we reclassify this companion as a super-Jovian planet. HD 28185 c has an orbital period of $24.9^{+1.3}_{-1.1}$ yr, a semimajor axis of $8.50^{+0.29}_{-0.26}$ au, and a modest eccentricity of $0.15\pm 0.04$, resulting in one of the most Saturn-like orbits of any known exoplanet. HD 28185 c lies at the current intersection of detection limits for RVs and direct imaging, and highlights how the discovery of giant planets at $\approx$10 au separations is becoming increasingly routine.

Partial Disruption of a Planet around a White Dwarf: The Effect of Perturbations from the Remnant Planet on the Accretion

About 25%–50% of white dwarfs (WDs) are found to be polluted by heavy elements. It has been argued that the pollution could be caused by the tidal disruption of an approaching planet around the WD, during which a large number of clumps would be produced and would finally fall onto the WD. The reason that the planet approaches the WD is usually believed to be due to gravitational perturbations from another distant planet or stellar companion. However, the dynamics of the perturbations and the detailed partial disruption process are still poorly understood. In this study, we present an in-depth investigation of these issues. A triple system composed of a WD, an inner orbit planet, and an outer orbit planet is considered. The inner planet would be partially disrupted periodically over its long-term evolution. Fragments generated in the process are affected by gravitational perturbations from the remnant planet, facilitating their fall toward the WD. The mass-loss rate of the inner planet depends on both its internal structure and also on the orbital configuration of the planetary system.

A search for Planet Nine with small spacecraft: Three-body, post-Newtonian, non-gravitational, planetary and Kuiper Belt effects

A hypothetical gravitating body in the outer Solar System, the so-called Planet Nine, was proposed to explain the unexpected clustering of the Kuiper Belt Objects. As it has not been observed via telescopes, it was conjectured to be a primordial black hole (of the size of a quince) that could be gravitationally detected by laser-launching or solar sailing many small spacecraft. Here, we study various aspects that will affect such a search for Planet Nine. Our basic observable is the angular displacement in the trajectory of a small spacecraft which will be mainly affected by the gravity of Planet Nine, augmented with several other 3-body, non-gravitational, post-Newtonian, planetary and Kuiper Belt effects. First, we calculate the effect of the Sun in the framework of the circular restricted three-body problem of the Sun–Planet Nine-spacecraft for the two particular initial conditions. Then, we study the effects of Kuiper Belt and outer planets, namely Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, as well as non-gravitational perturbations such as magnetic and drag forces exerted by the interstellar medium; and the solar radiation pressure. In addition, we investigate the post-Newtonian general relativistic effects such as the frame-dragging, Schwarzschild effect, and geodetic precession on the spacecraft trajectory. We show that the leading order angular displacement is due to the solar radiation pressure for the lower spacecraft velocities, and the drag force for the higher spacecraft velocities. Among the general relativistic effects, the frame-dragging has the smallest effect; and the Schwarzschild effect due to Sun has the largest effect. However, none of the general relativistic effects produces a meaningful contribution to the detection.

An Efficient Observational Strategy for the Detection of the Oort Cloud

The Oort cloud is presumably a pristine relic of the solar system formation. Detection of the Oort cloud may provide information regarding the stellar environment in which the Sun was born and on the planetesimal population during the outer planets’ formation phase. The best suggested approach for detecting Oort cloud objects in situ, is by searching for subsecond occultations of distant stars by these objects. Following Brown & Webster, we discuss the possibility of detecting Oort cloud objects by observing near the quadrature direction. Due to the Earth’s projected velocity, the occultations are longer near the quadrature direction and are therefore easier to detect, but have lower rate. We show that, for ≲1 m size telescopes, the increased exposure time will result in about one to 3 orders of magnitude increase in the number of detectable stars that have an angular size smaller than the Fresnel scale and are therefore suitable for an occultation search. We discuss the ability of this method to detect Oort cloud objects using existing survey telescopes, and we estimate the detection rate as a function of the power-law index of the size distribution of the Oort cloud objects and their distance from the Sun. We show that occultations detected using ≈1 s integration by ≲1 m telescopes at the optimal region near the quadrature points will be marginally dominated by Oort cloud objects rather than Kuiper belt objects.

Photo-dynamical characterisation of the TOI-178 resonant chain

Context. The TOI-178 system consists of a nearby, late-K-dwarf with six transiting planets in the super-Earth to mini-Neptune regime, with radii ranging from to 2.9 R⊕ and orbital periods between 1.9 and 20.7 days. All the planets, but the innermost one, form a chain of Laplace resonances. The fine-tuning and fragility of such orbital configurations ensure that no significant scattering or collision event has taken place since the formation and migration of the planets in the protoplanetary disc, thereby providing important anchors for planet formation models. Aims. We aim to improve the characterisation of the architecture of this key system and, in particular, the masses and radii of its planets. In addition, since this system is one of the few resonant chains that can be characterised by both photometry and radial velocities, we propose to use it as a test bench for the robustness of the planetary mass determination with each technique. Methods. We performed a global analysis of all the available photometry from CHEOPS, TESS and NGTS, and radial velocity from ESPRESSO, using a photo-dynamical modelling of the light curve. We also tried different sets of priors on the masses and eccentricity, as well as different stellar activity models, to study their effects on the masses estimated by transit-timing variations (TTVs) and radial velocities (RVs). Results. We demonstrate how stellar activity prevents a robust mass estimation for the three outer planets using radial velocity data alone. We also show that our joint photo-dynamical and radial velocity analysis has resulted in a robust mass determination for planets c to 𝑔, with precision of ~ 12% for the mass of planet c, and better than 10% for planets d to 𝑔. The new precisions on the radii range from 2 to 3%. The understanding of this synergy between photometric and radial velocity measurements will be valuable for the PLATO mission. We also show that TOI-178 is indeed currently locked in the resonant configuration, librating around an equilibrium of the chain.

Repelling Planet Pairs by Ping-pong Scattering

The Kepler mission reveals a peculiar trough-peak feature in the orbital spacing of close-in planets near mean-motion resonances: a deficit and an excess that are, respectively, a couple of percent interior to and wide of the resonances. This feature has received two main classes of explanations: one involving eccentricity damping and the other scattering with small bodies. Here, we point out a few issues with the damping scenario and study the scattering scenario in more detail. We elucidate why scattering small bodies tends to repel two planets. As the small bodies random-walk in energy and angular momentum space, they tend to absorb fractionally more energy than angular momentum. This, which we call “ping-pong repulsion,” transports angular momentum from the inner to the outer planet and pushes the two planets apart. Such a process, even if ubiquitous, leaves identifiable marks only near first-order resonances: diverging pairs jump across the resonance quickly and produce the mean-motion resonance asymmetry. To explain the observed positions of the trough-peaks, a total scattering mass of order a few percent of the planet masses is required. Moreover, if this mass is dominated by a handful of Mercury-sized bodies, one can also explain the planet eccentricities as inferred from transit-time variations. Last, we suggest how these conditions may have naturally arisen during the late stages of planet formation.

Additional Doppler Monitoring Corroborates HAT-P-11c as a Planet

In 2010, Bakos and collaborators discovered a Neptune-sized planet transiting the K-dwarf HAT-P-11 every five days. Later in 2018, Yee and collaborators reported an additional Jovian-mass companion on a nine year orbit based on a decade of Doppler monitoring. The eccentric outer giant HAT-P-11c may be responsible for the peculiar polar orbit of the inner planet HAT-P-11b. However, Basilicata et al. recently suggested that the HAT-P-11c Doppler signal could be caused by stellar activity. In this research note, we extend the Yee et al. Doppler time series by six years. The combined data set spanning 17 yr covers nearly two orbits of the outer planet. Importantly, we observe two periastron passages of planet c and do not observe a coherent activity signature. Together with the previously reported astrometric acceleration of HAT-P-11 from Hipparcos and Gaia, we believe there is strong evidence for HAT-P-11c as a bona fide planet.

TOI-2015 b: A Warm Neptune with Transit Timing Variations Orbiting an Active Mid-type M Dwarf

We report the discovery of a close-in (P orb = 3.349 days) warm Neptune with clear transit timing variations (TTVs) orbiting the nearby (d = 47.3 pc) active M4 star, TOI-2015. We characterize the planet's properties using Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) photometry, precise near-infrared radial velocities (RVs) with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder Spectrograph, ground-based photometry, and high-contrast imaging. A joint photometry and RV fit yields a radius Rp=3.37−0.20+0.15R⊕ , mass mp=16.4−4.1+4.1M⊕ , and density ρp=2.32−0.37+0.38gcm−3 for TOI-2015 b, suggesting a likely volatile-rich planet. The young, active host star has a rotation period of P rot = 8.7 ± 0.9 days and associated rotation-based age estimate of 1.1 ± 0.1 Gyr. Though no other transiting planets are seen in the TESS data, the system shows clear TTVs of super-period Psup≈430days and amplitude ∼100 minutes. After considering multiple likely period-ratio models, we show an outer planet candidate near a 2:1 resonance can explain the observed TTVs while offering a dynamically stable solution. However, other possible two-planet solutions—including 3:2 and 4:3 resonances—cannot be conclusively excluded without further observations. Assuming a 2:1 resonance in the joint TTV-RV modeling suggests a mass of mb=13.3−4.5+4.7M⊕ for TOI-2015 b and mc=6.8−2.3+3.5M⊕ for the outer candidate. Additional transit and RV observations will be beneficial to explicitly identify the resonance and further characterize the properties of the system.

Searching for the grand tack in exoplanetary data

The grand tack model, more generally called the Masset and Snellgrove mechanism, is a planetary migration model whereby two giant planets via interactions with their natal disk migrated to larger orbital radii. While its relevance in our own Solar System remains in question, the fact that the Masset and Snellgrove mechanism is a general hydrodynamical effect implies that it may have occurred in another planetary system. In this study I searched through exoplanet data for evidence of the Masset and Snellgrove mechanism, which requires that (1) the inner of the two planets is more massive than the outer planet; (2) the planets are sufficiently massive that their gravity-induced gap overlaps; and (3) they orbit at sufficiently close radii that their co-rotation regions also overlap. The last two requirements are met when the planets orbit with a 3:2 mean motion resonance. I do not find conclusive evidence for a grand tack-like system, but find some evidence for planet formation at the edge of a planet-induced protoplanetary disk gap in three systems.

3D aeronomy of two mini-neptunes in the HD 63433 system and their in-transit absorption in Ly α and metastable He i lines

ABSTRACT The numerical simulation of the HD 63433 system is performed with the aim to study upper atmospheres of two mini-Neptunes, planets b and c, interacting with the stellar wind of the parent star. The obtained results demonstrate that both exoplanets form the extended envelopes with strong supersonic outflows. The synthetic absorption profiles in the Ly α line show that under moderate stellar wind conditions, similar to those of the normal solar wind, the energetic neutral atoms contribute to the absorption in the high-velocity blue wing of the line at a level of tens per cent. The absorption in metastable helium He i(23S) line appears rather weak and below the detection limit by current instruments. An important feature revealed by the simulations is that the tail of escaping atmospheric material of the inner planet disturbs the stellar wind at orbital location of the outer planet and might, therefore, affect its observation in Ly α line.

How the presence of a giant planet affects the outcome of terrestrial planet formation simulations

The architecture and masses of planetary systems in the habitable zone could be strongly influenced by the presence of outer giant planets. Here, we investigate the impact of outer giants on terrestrial planet formation, under the assumption that the final assembly of the planetary system is set by a giant impact phase. Utilizing a state-of-the-art N-body simulation software, GENGA, we interpret how the late stage of terrestrial planet formation contributes to diversity among planetary systems. We designed two global model setups: 1) we placed a gas giant on the outer side of planetesimals and embryo disk and 2) we only included planetesimals and embryos, but no giant. For the model including the outer giant, we studied the effect of different giant initial masses in the range of 1.0–3.0 Jupiter masses, as well as a range of orbital radii from 2.0–5.8 AU. We also studied the influence of different initial positions of planetesimals and embryos on the results. Our N-body simulation time is approximately 50 Myr. The results show that the existence of an outer giant will promote the interaction between planetesimals and embryos, making the orbits of the formed terrestrial planets more compact. However, placing the giant planet too close to the planetesimals and embryo disk suppresses the formation of massive rocky planets. In addition, under the classical theory, where planetary embryos and planetesimals collide to form terrestrial planets, our results show that the presence of a giant planet actually decreases the gap complexity of the inner planetary system.

Photo-dynamical Analysis of Circumbinary Multi-planet System TOI-1338: A Fully Coplanar Configuration with a Puffy Planet

TOI-1338 is the first circumbinary planet (CBP) system discovered by TESS. It has one transiting planet at P ∼ 95 days and an outer nontransiting planet at P ∼ 215 days complemented by radial velocity (RV) observation. Here we present a global photodynamical modeling of the TOI-1338 system that self-consistently accounts for the mutual gravitational interactions between all known bodies in the system. As a result, the three-dimensional architecture of the system can be established by comparing the model with additional data from TESS Extended Mission and published HARPS/ESPRESSO RV data. We report an inconsistency of binary RV signal between HARPS and ESPRESSO, which could be due to the contamination of the secondary star. According to stability analysis, the RV data via ESPRESSO are preferred. Our results are summarized as follows: (1) The inner transiting planet is extremely coplanar to the binary plane ΔI b ∼ 0.°12, making it a permanently transiting circumbinary planet at any nodal precession phases; we updated the future transit ephemerides with improved precisions. (2) The outer planet, despite its untransiting nature, is also coplanar with the binary plane by ΔIc=9.°1−4.°8+6.°0 (22° for the 99% upper limit). (3) The inner planet could have an extremely low density of 0.137 ± 0.026 g cm−3. With a TESS magnitude of 11.45, TOI-1338 b is an optimal circumbinary planet CBP for ground-based follow-up and transit spectroscopy.

A formation pathway for terrestrial planets with moderate water content involving atmospheric-volatile recycling

Of the many recently discovered terrestrial exoplanets, some are expected to harbor moderate water mass fractions of a few percent. The formation pathways that can produce planets with these water mass fractions are not fully understood. Here, we use the code chemcomp which consists of a semi-analytical 1D protoplanetary disk model harboring a migrating and accreting planet, to model the growth and composition of planets with moderate water mass fractions by pebble accretion in a protoplanetary disk around a TRAPPIST-1 analog star. This star is accompanied by seven terrestrial planets, of which the outer four planets likely contain water mass fractions of between 1<!PCT!> and 10<!PCT!>. We adopt a published model that considers the evaporation of pebbles in the planetary envelope, from where recycling flows can transport the volatile vapor back into the disk. We find that with this model, the planetary water content depends on the influx rate of pebbles onto the planet. A decreasing pebble influx with time reduces the envelope temperature and consequently allows the formation of planets with moderate water mass fractions as inferred for the outer TRAPPIST-1 planets for a number of different simulation configurations. This is further evidence that the recycling of vapor is an important component of planet formation needed to explain the vast and diverse population of exoplanets.

The Implications of Thermal Hydrodynamic Atmospheric Escape on the TRAPPIST-1 Planets

JWST observations of the seven-planet TRAPPIST-1 system will provide an excellent opportunity to test outcomes of stellar-driven evolution of terrestrial planetary atmospheres, including atmospheric escape, ocean loss, and abiotic oxygen production. While most previous studies use a single luminosity evolution for the host star, we incorporate observational uncertainties in stellar mass, luminosity evolution, system age, and planetary parameters to statistically explore the plausible range of planetary atmospheric escape outcomes. We present probabilistic distributions of total water loss and oxygen production as a function of initial water content, for planets with initially pure water atmospheres and no interior–atmosphere exchange. We find that the interior planets are desiccated for initial water contents below 50 Earth oceans. For TRAPPIST-1e, f, g, and h, we report maximum water-loss ranges of 8.0−0.9+1.3 , 4.8−0.4+0.6 , 3.4−0.3+0.3 , and 0.8−0.1+0.2 Earth oceans, respectively, with corresponding maximum oxygen retention of 1290−75+75 , 800−40+40 , 560−25+30 , and 90−10+10 bars. We explore statistical constraints on initial water content imposed by current water content, which could inform evolutionary history and planet formation. If TRAPPIST-1b is airless while TRAPPIST-1c possesses a tenuous oxygen atmosphere, as initial JWST observations suggest, then our models predict an initial surface water content of 8.2 −1.0+1.5 Earth oceans for these worlds, leading to the outer planets retaining >1.5 Earth oceans after entering the habitable zone. Even if TRAPPIST-1c is airless, surface water on the outer planets would not be precluded.

A Multi‐Model Ensemble System for the Outer Heliosphere (MMESH): Solar Wind Conditions Near Jupiter

AbstractHow the solar wind influences the magnetospheres of the outer planets is a fundamentally important question, but is difficult to answer in the absence of consistent, simultaneous monitoring of the upstream solar wind and the large‐scale dynamics internal to the magnetosphere. To compensate for the relative lack of in‐situ solar wind data, propagation models are often used to estimate the ambient solar wind conditions at the outer planets for comparison to remote observations or in‐situ measurements. This introduces another complication: the propagation of near‐Earth solar wind measurements introduces difficult‐to‐assess uncertainties. Here, we present the Multi‐Model Ensemble System for the outer Heliosphere (MMESH) to begin to address these issues, along with the resultant multi‐model ensemble (MME) of the solar wind conditions near Jupiter. MMESH accepts as input any number of solar wind models together with contemporaneous in‐situ spacecraft data. From these, the system characterizes typical uncertainties in model timing, quantifies how these uncertainties vary under different conditions, attempts to correct for systematic biases in the input model timing, and composes a MME with uncertainties from the results. For the Juno‐era (04/07/2016–04/07/2023) MME hindcast for Jupiter presented here, three solar wind propagation models were compared to in‐situ measurements from the near‐Jupiter spacecraft Ulysses and Juno spanning diverse geometries and phases of the solar cycle across >14,000 hr of data covering 2.5 decades. The MME gives the most‐probable near‐Jupiter solar wind conditions for times within the tested epoch, outperforming the input models and returning quantified estimates of uncertainty.