Outcome Of War Research Articles

A paradigm shift in international security as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war

This article presents the main features of the historical genesis of the international security paradigm shift from its institutionalisation to the present day. It is shown that such genesis is sinusoidal in nature and related to the well-known 'Kondratiev waves', except that, unlike the latter, it is not economic in nature, but security in nature. In a historical and geopolitical context, five successive shifts in the international security paradigm (Pre-Systemic, Westphalian, Vienna, Versailles, Yalta-Potsdam, Unipolar) are distinguished as a normatively recognised system of international relations of war and peace, based on all countries' adherence to universally recognised principles and norms of international law, as enshrined in relevant international treaties. The main factors of the end of the era of the unipolar world and the growing role of 'fragile' states in the international security environment as potential objects of international military interventions and spaces for the deployment of local conflicts and wars were characterised. It was concluded that the war in Ukraine is a key trigger for a new paradigm shift in international security and the emergence of a new system of international relations, and that the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will determine the 'starting positions' and strong arguments in the hands of the United States of America and its allies against China and its allies during the inevitable new global security conference on the creation of a new world order.

Tracing the Application of Modern Principles of International Humanitarian Law in the pre-Christian War between King Duṭugamunu and Elāra in Sri Lanka

The war between King Duṭugamunu and Elāra is the most significant singular war that took place in the pre-Christian period in Sri Lanka. It has the elements of modern international armed conflict (IAC). A local monarch waged it to unify the nation against an invading foreign force led by a foreign ruler who seized power through regicide. This historical conflict sparked extensive debates, criticisms, and varying interpretations, contributing to distortions of factual accounts. The studies analysing this battle from the perspectives of the modern International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is minimal. The branch of public international law that deals with IAC is International Humanitarian Law (IHL). The research problem that was investigated is 'Did the Sri Lankan monarch comply with the modern principles of international humanitarian law when there were no such laws at that time in the world and thereby, does that monarch deserve to be called as the founder of IHL? Accordingly, this study aims at analysing the motives, intentions, and conduct including the pre-conflict, in-conflict, and post-conflict behaviour of key actors and the war's outcome from the perspectives of IHL. The methodology used for this study is literature review. It is qualitative and interpretative in nature. The historical sources, international conventions and national legislations were used as primary and secondary sources for this purpose. The focus of the analysis is the evaluation of IHL principles in the context of the historical war. This study provides a unique analysis that suggests the application of principles akin to modern IHL by the ruling monarch nearly two millennia before the formal establishment of such principles. The major finding is that some 2019 years prior to the international community introduced the modern IHL principles such as humanity, avoidance of unnecessary suffering, proportionality of damages, humane treatment of prisoners of war (POW) etc., the ruling Sri Lankan monarch has recognised and applied them in this war and has recognised the new principle of Eternal Honour to POWs which is yet to recognise by IHL. Keywords: Humanitarian; International; Law; Vijiṭapura; War

No End in Sight? Trajectories of War Terminations in Islamist Armed Conflicts

We know that Islamist armed conflicts tend to become intractable. Yet, we have very limited knowledge about the various ways in which such conflicts are brought to a halt. In this article, we address this research gap. By combining insights from the warscapes literature with research on conflict terminations, we provide a more nuanced picture of how Islamist conflicts terminate, and the trajectories that they follow. Our findings – based on a global analysis of terminations in Islamist armed conflicts, 1989–2019 – demonstrate that these conflicts rarely terminate entirely but rather change and take different forms, or are followed by violence involving other armed actors, either continued or renewed cycles of violence.

The Theories of war in practice: possible outcomes and means for the termination of war. Case study: Russian war against Ukraine

Purpose: is to anticipate the termination of the Russia-Ukraine war considering the underlying causes on the basis of main war termination theories. Method: comparative analysis, and synthesis. Findings: The length of a war is typically unpredictable due to the intricate interplay of elements that affect its duration. Initial assessments often underestimate the enemy's capabilities, resolve, and adaptability. Understanding these factors can help in devising strategies to prevent or shorten wars. In historical records, the majority of military operations, campaigns, and wars have exceeded their anticipated duration. What causes the wars to linger longer than anticipated? What variables or elements, in general, affect the duration of wars? These are some of the most frequently considered questions by the researchers. In this regard wars need to be categorized based on their features in order to make sense of how long they should last. The scale and ferocity of wars differ. Some wars lasted only a few days, while others lasted for years or even decades. Some wars were fought between two nations, while others involved multiple nations, some others had a worldwide scope. Limited engagements occurred in some wars, while others left massive amounts of destruction in their wake. While many nations rally their entire population for war, some do not believe it is necessary. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, the article illustrates the main points of war theories concerning the origins and end of a conflict, supports the connection between them, and emphasizes the variables and elements that influence the duration of the war. The authors try to anticipate the termination of this war based on various factors. Theoretical implications: The paper enhances our understanding of key concepts of theories of war provide a framework to understand the various dynamics and outcomes of conflicts, including how they begin, unfold, and eventually end. The Russia-Ukraine war serves as a contemporary case study to explore these theories in practice. The paper provides new insights for understanding the variables and elements that influence the duration of the war and offer various lenses to comprehend and address the war, suggesting a multifaceted approach that includes military, diplomatic, economic, and socio-cultural strategies. Practical implications: Examining the practical implications of the theories of war in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war involves understanding how these theories translate into real-world strategies and actions that can lead to the termination of the war. The paper highlights that military, diplomatic, economic, and socio-cultural strategies must be integrated to address the complex dynamics of the conflict and pave the way for a sustainable peace. Value: The study offers significant value in understanding, predicting, and potentially resolving wars in the example of Russia-Ukraine war and provides multiple lenses through which to analyze the war, devise strategies, and anticipate outcomes.

The Over-Politicization of Russian Battlefield Strategy in Ukraine

The extant literature lavishes its focus on understanding Russia’s motivation for starting a war against Ukraine and on the broader question of the role of technology in determining the outcome of war. This article, however, undertakes a comprehensive examination of the relatively ignored yet important aspect of adapting military strategy during the war through Russian experience. It demonstrates that the Russian strategists have shown adequate appreciation for the principle of adaptation in formulating military strategy. To this effect, it identifies and explains three distinct sequential adaptations in the Russian military strategy during the ongoing Ukrainian war. The analysis, conducted with thoroughness and rigor, demonstrates that the Russian armed forces made a relatively quicker transition from the show of force to offense to defense. It also delves into the factors that drove these adaptations. This research has implications for both theory and policy. On the theoretical side, it reinforces the organic relationship between strategy and war. On the policy side, it highlights the importance of adapting military strategy to contain and limit the scope of war.

Trade Wars, Nominal Rigidities, and Monetary Policy

Abstract This paper shows that the outcome of trade wars for tariffs and welfare will be affected by the monetary policy regime. The key message is that trade policy interacts with monetary policy in a way that magnifies the welfare costs of discretionary monetary policy in an international setting. If countries follow monetary policies of flexible inflation targeting, trade wars are relatively mild, with low equilibrium tariffs and small welfare costs. Discretionary monetary policies imply much higher tariffs, high inflation rates, and substantially larger welfare costs. We quantify the effects of a global trade war among major economies using estimates of trade elasticities, economic size, net foreign assets, and trade openness. We find large welfare benefits of an inflation targeting monetary policy for all countries.

Adaptive Whitening and Feature Gradient Smoothing-Based Anti-Sample Attack Method for Modulated Signals in Frequency-Hopping Communication

Adaptive Whitening and Feature Gradient Smoothing-Based Anti-Sample Attack Method for Modulated Signals in Frequency-Hopping Communication

The Union Army's Surgical Handbook and the Positive Story of Civil War Surgery.

Western armies have relied on surgical field manuals to help physicians deal with unfamiliar combat medical conditions from the Napoleonic wars to the present day, but there has been little discussion of whether these handbooks have been used or improved outcomes. Recent research shows that the Union Army's American Civil War (1861-1865) surgical case fatality rates improved as the war progressed, much like the US Army's experience in later wars, and were generally superior to comparable European results. These positive Civil War outcomes have been attributed to field experience, adoption of best practices, and enhanced communication, without consideration of New York surgeon Stephen Smith's widely-used Hand-Book of Surgical Operations. The Army of the Potomac added Smith's pocket-sized Hand-Book to its supply table in 1862. Northern medical journals applauded it, and Smith's contemporaries documented its wide use. Smith's handbook explained and demonstrated surgical techniques that were adopted as the war progressed, such as the use of general anesthesia and limb-sparing resection (debridement) of gunshot wounds. It offered pithy, well-documented advice from recognized experts along with numerous illustrations, which allowed untrained physicians to visualize anatomical relationships and see contemporary best practices in a way that no other wartime publication provided, making it an exemplar of a mass-media surgical improvement change agent.

The Real and the Ideal: The Field of the Asia Minor Expedition as Memoryscape and the Politics of Collective Memory

Abstract: In the summer of 1921, the Greek armies had succeeded in occupying part of Greece's claimed territories in Asia Minor. Although the outcome of the Greco-Turkish war had yet to be decided, the Greek minister of military affairs proposed that a public war memorial park be constructed in Athens, a park-monument where the Asia Minor locations under Greek control would be presented metonymically. The project, visualized on a detailed map, foresaw the transport of ancient Greek antiquities from Asia Minor and their selective positioning in the park so as to create a spatio-temporal miscellany. In the proposed memorial park, space, time, and Greek antiquity were to produce a new locus, a memoryscape, that went beyond existing frontiers and outside experienced time. The plan to create a cultural mnemonic marker monumentalizing the Asia Minor Campaign sought not only to shape the national identity but also to proclaim and promote Greece's demand for annexation of the Asia Minor territories.

Does war improve women’s political representation?

An expanding body of scholarly work posits that war, particularly intrastate war, disrupts established power arrangements and social institutions, providing avenues for women to enhance their political influence through reforms in political structures and participation in peace-building processes. Webster, Chen, and Beardsley (2019) systematically explore the nexus between war and women’s political empowerment, demonstrating associations between both interstate and intrastate conflicts and advancements in women’s political empowerment. Extending their analysis, this study investigates the influence of intrastate conflicts on women’s representation in legislative bodies. However, nuanced findings emerge from this analysis. There is no supporting evidence that the occurrence of warfare leads to an increase in women’s legislative representation. Ongoing internal conflicts exhibit a negative impact on the progression of women’s political representation. Conversely, the termination of civil wars, particularly without their prompt resumption, correlates with a higher likelihood of adopting gender quotas, thereby enhancing women’s legislative representation. Furthermore, the correlation between the termination of civil wars and women’s legislative representation appears specific to the context of sub-Saharan Africa. No conclusive evidence supports this relationship as a global phenomenon.

A Basque Media War: Who is Ireland’s Friend, Who is Ireland’s Enemy? The Easter Rising’s Influence, Context and Development in the Basque Country

This paper examines the inner debate in Basque nationalism resulting from the Easter Rising between 1916 and 1918. Basque nationalists firmly believed that the Irish Revolution would affect the British war effort, the outcome of the Great War and hence Basque political vindication itself. The official nationalist leadership and its organ, Euzkadi, supported Great Britain, arguing a British military triumph in Ireland and in the Great War would bring a worldwide era of autonomy for national minorities. Pro-independence militants, however, not only expressed solidarity and outspoken support towards the rebels, but also associated their victory with a post-war scenario favourable to independence movements. This study focuses on the two competing Basque nationalist interpretations as presented in the media. Simultaneously, traditionalist parties (i.e. Carlists and Integrists) exacerbated nationalists’ differences in order to weaken a direct political rival.

Unification of Ukrainian Society in a Postwar Period as a Preventive Mechanism to Avert the Crisis of State

The study involves the analysis of unification of Ukrainian society in a postwar period to prevent the crisis of state system. It is claimed, that upon the war termination the issue of creation of universal Ukrainian society forming model arises, which is supposed to represent a symbiosis of foundations of nationwide well-being and prospects of Ukraine strategic development. It is shown, that the existent division of society into those who stayed in Ukraine and those who left for other countries can scale up in a long run. The loss of conceptual univocity in the course of developing such categories as “victim,” “patriot,” “traitor” and “savior” in civil society bears evidence to the mobility of self-identification process of existing population clusters and possible appearance of new categories of populace in the not so distant future. The rationalization for human capital is provided as well as the necessity of having regard to the mentioned factor while elaborating the postwar country development strategy. Special attention is paid to the problem of implementation of repatriation policy. Its types are defined, and the mostly acceptable options for Ukraine are characterized, including the direct and active or in direct and mediated state’s stimulation of nationals’ returning to the ethnical Homeland. Based on the conducted analysis of current experience of European countries, it was concluded that it is the controlled process of return migration that is the key component of consistent country development.

SYRIA: PROXY WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The conflict in Syria quickly escalated into a complex and prolonged civil war where states outside the conflict fueled rebel groups to fight. The onset of multiple proxy wars befell Syria. Proxy war happens when a ruler of a state devises and facilitates the provision of support to a rebel group that is engaged in carrying out violent activities in another state. Thus, an external state can influence the outcome of a civil war without having to bear the heavy costs of sending its army forces. States that wage proxy wars risk a potential conflict escalation, and gamble with provoking retaliation by either the offending state or its allies. Furthermore, inadvertent conse quences of backing rebel forces are also possible such as international condemnation. So, why does a state choose to form a relationship with a proxy group, instead of intervening directly? Why invest money and military power in a third party that could lead to a prolonged conflict? The analysis highlights that the political survival of regimes in the Middle East caused leaders to support rebel groups in Syria. I present a causal mechanism that is based on transnational threats to explain the phenomenon of proxy war in the Syrian civil war. Keywords: Syria, proxy war, Middle East, qualitative analysis, foreign policy.

A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine? Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security

Abstract Whatever the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War, in its wake Ukraine will need to choose a security policy to defend its sovereignty from future threats. Its choice holds implications for broader European security. Some observers advocate Ukraine becoming a member in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), thereby gaining protection from the U.S. “nuclear umbrella.” Others doubt the effectiveness of “extended nuclear deterrence”—the threat of U.S. nuclear retaliation for attacks, including those carried out with conventional armed forces, on an ally's territory. But nuclear deterrence was never put to the test in Cold War Europe, and today extended nuclear deterrence is an unreliable and risky approach to Russian aggression. An examination of the role of nuclear deterrence during the 1961 Berlin Crisis demonstrates that Soviet military strategy against U.S. nuclear weapons posed the risk of escalation. In vulnerable NATO territories, such as the Estonian city of Narva, such a risk still exists. A Cold War–era alternative to nuclear deterrence offers the possibility of a non-nuclear defense for Ukraine. Proposals such as the “spider in the web” strategy draw on concepts of the security dilemma and non-offensive, confidence-building defense to provide for Ukrainian security in a Europe threatened by Russian expansion, without relying on the threat of nuclear war.

The peace formula of Volodymyr Zelenskyy before and after the Vilnius NATO summit

Abstract. The Peace Formula put forward by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the G20 Summit was a response to the challenges caused by the russian-Ukrainian war and the destruction of the existing world order that followed it. Undoubtedly, the Formula stirred great resonance both among diplomatic circles and the entire international environment since the old system of regional and global security was destroyed, and the global world now faced the problem of finding the contours of a new architecture of international security. Therefore, the Formula represented an attempt to simultaneously solve a whole set of different-scale and multi-directional strategic tasks: urgent and long-term, regional and global, etc. The level of priority of those tasks depends not just on the course and outcome of russian-Ukrainian war but also on the challenges and threats that subsequently emerged at the global level of international security. The article describes the conditions and factors that preceded the emergence of the Peace Formula, as well as the process of filling the sessions and content of the document. The author emphasises the Formula’s significance for potential negotiations with russia to end the war and analyses the positions of key geopolitical actors regarding the implementation of the Peace Formula and its role in formulating security guarantees for Ukraine. Other aspects covered in the study include the influence of the decisions of the Vilnius NATO Summit on the fulfilment of the items of the Peace Formula, the prospects of security guarantees for Ukraine, and the ultimate formation of a new regional security architecture. Key words: Peace Formula, security guarantees, NATO, regional security.

From Treaties to Tweets: The (In)Formality of War Termination

From Treaties to Tweets: The (In)Formality of War Termination

At Any Cost: How Ukrainians Think about Self‐Defense Against Russia

AbstractHow do populations facing external aggression view the costs and benefits of self‐defense? In Western countries, war support has been shown to follow cost–benefit calculations, resembling the moral principle of proportionality. A categorical position, in contrast, means supporting self‐defense regardless of the costs. To evaluate which moral principle populations facing external aggression follow, we conducted a conjoint experiment with 1,160 Ukrainians in July 2022. We examine support for different strategies Ukraine could pursue against Russia, which vary regarding the political autonomy and territorial integrity they afford and three costs: civilian and military fatalities, and nuclear risk. We find that Ukrainians do not trade off autonomy or territory against these costs. A new method to rank conjoint‐attributes, computing “nested” marginal means, shows that respondents categorically reject political or territorial concessions, regardless of costs. This provides first experimental evidence that populations resisting external aggression do not subject war outcomes to cost–benefit calculations.

How Is Money Driven? The Case in Shanghai (1949–1950)

This article presents a case study of how the Renminbi won the currency war in Shanghai between 1949 and 1950. This case study supports the proposition of chartalism and MMT that money is a creature of the state, and in two ways deepens our understanding of the role of the state in the sovereign currency system. First, taxation is not the only way to drive money. The Shanghai government also drove money by supplying goods. Second, the outcome of a currency war depends on many historical factors, and the government plays an important role by changing the conventions that shape people’s monetary behavior. The Shanghai government adopted anti-inflation policies to transform the conventions of valuing commodities and metallic currencies over paper currencies.

카이로회담 전후 연합국 군사동맹의 비판적 검토

This paper tried to critically examine the military alliance between the U.S., Britain, and China through China’s role in the Cairo talks and changes in the Allied strategy against Japan before and after the talks. Immediately after the outbreak of the Pacific War, the national government proposed a military alliance to the West, and a military alliance was signed between the United States, Britain, and China. However, each country had a different view of the Allied military alliance. As a result, the difference in strategy between the US, UK, and Chinese military leaders resulted in Burma being occupied by the Japanese military in a short period of time. Since 1943, as the war has developed in favor of the Allies on the battlefields of Europe and the Pacific, the Allies held Cairo talks for the post-war Asian initiative and the Japan-Japan strategy. Chiang Kai-shek’s participation in the Cairo conference led China to become one of the four major powers. But it was a semi-final in justification, not a real one.
 In Tehran, the Allies decided to end the war in Asia after ending the war in Europe first. Of course, the strategy agreed upon by the Allies at the Tehran talks may have been a way to quickly end World War II as a whole. However, this strategy could have a huge negative impact on Eastern Europe and Asia, even if the damage to the Chinese national government was left alone. First of all, in Europe, the Soviet Union advanced to Germany and influenced post-war Eastern Europe, and then in Northeast Asia, the Soviet Union exerted influence over Manchuria rather than other powers, which had a decisive impact on the outcome of the post-war civil war.

Social Tradition: Theoretical Problems and Practical Implementation

The article examines the historical, logico-conceptual and politico-pragmatic content of an ideological trend, such as “social traditionalism”. The idea of combining socialism with the core tradition of Orthodoxy can be traced back in our history to the last quarter of the nineteenth century. In Konstantin Leontiev’s statements, in particular. Later on, it appeared among the members of the “Christian Brotherhood of Struggle”: Valentin Sventsitsky, Vladimir Ern, and the Priest Pavel Florensky. Nikolai Berdyaev upgraded this idea to its logical fi nish, by describing the phenomenon of “Russian communism” as the metamorphosis of Russian religiosity: they created the Third Rome, but got the Third International instead. Alexander Shchipkov’s thesis, according to which the traditional ideological paradigm of modernity (“liberalism — conservatism — socialism”) is undergoing the reformatting stage and is being replaced by the “nationalism — socialism — traditionalism” paradigm, implies that “liberalism” is being driven out by “nationalism” as its alternative. However, in the fi eld of international relations, “nationalism” can be interpreted as a projection of liberal individualism justifying the right of a national state to freedom, that is, sovereignty. Against the background of evaluating the outcome of the Cold War, the USSR breakup can be understood as the victory of liberalism over socialism. Today, China embodies the idea of socialism, while the liberal West faces inner culture wars: liberalism is being attacked by supporters of multiculturalism and the “cancel culture”. In the course of evaluating the prospects of “social traditionalism” as a Russian state ideology, one should take into account that both the United Russia party and President Vladimir Putin defi ne their ideological position as “conservatism”. At the same time, the latest edition defi nes presidential conservatism as a political management technology. In this regard, the defi nition of traditionalism as a “set of methods” and “procedures for ethicization” proposed by Alexander Shchipkov can also be considered technological rather than ideological. But in this case, a contradiction emerges: social traditionalism claims to replace conservatism precisely as an ideology, striving to synthesize socialism and Christianity. Socialism becomes the result of an arbitrary choice procedure, while Christianity remains a tradition, but not in the sense of the basic defi nition of traditionalism.