Outbreak Of Conflict Research Articles

Kulturowe rozumienie konfliktu i sposobów jego rozwiązywania – filozofia „kompromisu” na przykładzie relacji rdzennej ludności Stanów Zjednoczonych z amerykańskim rządem

The study provides an interdisciplinary analysis of the philosophy of compromise and the mechanisms of its resolution using the example of the relationship between the indigenous peoples of the United States and the American government. The paper traces the history of early interactions between Europeans and North American indigenous peoples, which were initially partnerships. However, as the number of colonists increased and the demand for land grew, disputes escalated. Fearing the outbreak of larger-scale conflicts that could escalate into open warfare, the US government attempted to negotiate with the various tribes, often resulting in the signing of treaties. The author examines the evolution of the US government’s policy, which, over time, shifted from a trade and alliance relationship to abusive and hypocritical actions aimed at taking land from indigenous peoples. Although the treaties formally recognized the sovereignty of the tribes, in reality they served as tools for the colonizers to take over their lands. These documents defined boundaries and land use rights, and also obliged the Indians to support the US military. Many of these agreements were made under pressure, leading to numerous negative consequences for indigenous peoples, including the loss of lands, resources and forced attempts to assimilate to European norms, resulting in acts of genocide in the long term. To this day, many of these treaties remain in force, and contemporary Native American communities continue to struggle to comply with their provisions. These treaties form the basis of numerous claims to land rights, hunting, fishing and access to natural resources. These documents are also a testament to the philosophy of life of indigenous communities. Nowadays, thanks to increased legal awareness, Native Americans consistently remind the government of the need to respect these treaties, which were often not the result of negotiation but imposed conditions that indigenous peoples had to agree to in order to survive.

Future armed conflicts - A new point of view

This article focusses on future wars and the resulting consequences for the development of the armed forces. The purpose of this study is to indicate the course of future armed conflicts on the base of the forecasts presented by the largest research centres as well as to signal the need to look at them from a new point of view, disregarding the current tense situation in the world. The subjects of the research are armed conflicts, and above all, the possible ways of conducting them in the future, as well as the domains in which they will be fought. The authors assume that the causes and forms of future armed conflicts will evolve. Changes will depend on the time and place of the outbreak of conflicts, the technology used, as well as the scale of their play. It is also assumed that future armed conflicts will take place in all domains, between equal opponents or between great powers and smaller states or organizations, which are weaker to them in every respect. In the paper, the authors took an attempt to answer the following questions: How will the geopolitical and economic situation in the world change, also in the context of progressing climate change? How will armed conflicts evolve in a changing world? How will future wars play out and what capabilities should military forces have to fight them? According to the analysis, the authors claim that future armed conflicts will: take place in all domains; require a rapid situation assessment and decisions; conducted in a complex environment; include hybrid strategies; increasingly difficult to resolve; non-linear; took the form of asymmetric activities; periodically conducted without electronic devices (an opponent can disable devices or track them); implemented by modular units capable of conducting independent activities at the lowest levels; saturated with robots and drones.

The Comparison Between Power Transition in Ancient Times and the Modern Era

Power Transition is a popular topic in the field of international relationships, and my study is focusing on the difference between hegemonic transition in ancient times and modern era. This is an important topic because it can provide some degree of inspiration to the scholars studying international conflicts in the modern era. Especially now that people are expecting a new wave of conflict for the alternation of hegemony between China and the US. After the Cold War, many scholars started focusing on the reasons that stopped possible military conflicts. However, most of them concentrated on technological and geological perspectives, but ignored factors of international relationship. To illustrate, the study chooses the Punic Wars as my ancient example and Sino-US competition for my modern example to evaluate. This paper analyzes the differences based on technological and international relationship factors by comparing the two cases. The paper argues that the Cold Weapon Era and the existence of small international systems made hegemonic wars easier to initiate and relatively less costly, suggesting that the conditions of the time facilitated the outbreak of such conflicts.

Multidimensional geographic factors behind conflicts: a case study in Sudan

ABSTRACT Sudan has been racked by complex and volatile conflicts for decades, with a new round of civil conflict erupting in April 2023, leading to significant loss of life and property. Despite the ongoing violence, the associations between conflicts and local contextual factors remain ambiguous. In this study, we developed an event-grid dataset, consisting of 50,033 observations with 20 variables derived from nighttime light (NTL) data, OpenStreetMap data, and other geographic data. Machine learning algorithms were employed to model the outbreak of conflict in 2023. Furthermore, the SHapley Additive exPlanations method was utilized to explain the relationships between diverse explanatory variables and conflicts. The results indicate that eXtreme Gradient Boosting model outperforms other models, such as Categorical Boosting and Light Gradient Boosting Machine. Multiple factors jointly contribute to conflicts. NTL-derived variables and transportation-related variables emerge as the most influential factors, followed by climate and agricultural factors. Regions characterized by economic inequality and proximity to transportation hubs are found to be more prone to conflicts. Additionally, variables impact the outbreak of conflict not only individually but also through mutual interactions. Notably, this study enhances a comprehensive and quantitative understanding of conflicts in Sudan, providing valuable insights to support humanitarian aid efforts.

Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict

The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict casted an impact on the global food market, which was believed to be attributed to that Ukraine has suffered significant production losses due to cropland abandonment. Nevertheless, recent outbreaks of farmer protests against Ukraine’s grain exports demonstrated that the production losses might not be as severe as previous estimates. By utilizing the adaptive threshold segmentation method to extract abandoned cropland from the Sentinel-2 high-resolution imagery and calibrating the spatial production allocation model’s gridded crop production data from Ukraine’s statistical data, this study explicitly evaluated Ukraine’s crop-specific production losses and the spatial heterogeneity. The results demonstrated that the estimated area of abandoned cropland in Ukraine ranges from 2.34 to 2.40 million hectares, constituting 7.14% to 7.30% of the total cropland. In Ukrainian-controlled zones, this area spans 1.44 to 1.48 million hectares, whereas in Russian-occupied areas, it varies from 0.90 to 0.92 million hectares. Additionally, the total production losses for wheat, maize, barley, and sunflower amount to 1.92, 1.67, 0.70, and 0.99 million tons, respectively, with corresponding loss ratios of 9.10%, 7.48%, 9.54%, and 8.67%. Furthermore, production losses of wheat, barley, and sunflower emerged in both the eastern and southern states adjacent to the conflict frontlines, while maize losses were concentrated in the western states. The findings imply that Ukraine ought to streamline the food transportation channels and maintain stable agricultural activities in regions with high crop production.

The north of Ireland during the interregnum: a Gramcian analysis of power and crisis

ABSTRACT The North of Ireland was induced in to existence over a century ago, yet the polity lacked societal-wide legitimacy. The outbreak of conflict in 1968 signalled the beginning of an interregnal period in which the old order was substantially challenged. Whilst the Good Friday Agreement was idealised as an end to this interregnum, Brexit has re-opened the battle for politico-ideological supremacy. This paper traces the contours of the hegemony-seeking strategies of the various political actors from 1968-present and assesses whether we are in the crucial and final phase of the organic crisis of the North of Ireland.

Management of Inter-Religious Conflicts in Kwara State: Prospects and Challenges

Nigeria has experienced various inter-religious conflicts that have obvious effects on peace. In Kwara State, for example, inter-religious conflict has surfaced as a major feature of inter-group relations. This paper examines the management of inter-religious conflict in Kwara State. Nigeria with the use of descriptive analysis. Conflict theory was employed as the basis of the study. The Kwara State Government applied various strategies in the management of inter-religious conflict, among them attempts to provide good governance and equitable development, litigation, use of police actions to prevent or quell emergent violence, establishment of inter-faith dialogue committees and partnership with traditional and religious institutions such as the Ilorin Emirate Council. Other government response strategies include court processes and the deployment of security forces. These have attracted considerable attention. In view of the situation on ground, the study advocates for some measures towards effective management of inter-religious conflicts in the state. These include the establishment of a committee comprising all representatives of social groups within the state. The committee should provide a forum for discussing and resolving communal issues instead of resorting to violence. Besides, it is further recommended research be carried out for an in-depth understanding of the causes and solutions to inter-religious conflicts in the state, where experts in conflict resolution would be used to curtail possible outbreak of conflicts, while increased attention is devoted to the prevention of social conflicts, the peaceful resolution of existing conflicts should be intensified through constant dialogue.

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.

Beyond Frankenstein: the Politics of the Gothic in Iraqi Fiction

Abstract This article examines works of post-2003 Iraqi fiction that draw on the aesthetic and thematic conventions of the postcolonial gothic genre by centering the grotesque figure of the animated corpse. Through these figures, the texts bring the disposable victims of necropolitical violence back into view, resisting their erasure while also resurrecting the buried histories that contributed to the outbreak of ongoing conflict. As these texts foreground the victims of violence both past and present, they issue powerful critiques of neocolonial and sectarian violence, particularly through their inversion of the gothic trope of the terrifying Other. In these texts, initially frightening animated corpses are revealed to be the sympathetic victims of violence, rendering necropolitical violence, rather than the corpses, the true source of horror in the texts and issuing a call to the reader to sympathize and even empathize with the frightening Other.

Future armed conflicts - A new point of view

This article focusses on future wars and the resulting consequences for the development of the armed forces. The purpose of this study is to indicate the course of future armed conflicts on the base of the forecasts presented by the largest research centres as well as to signal the need to look at them from a new point of view, disregarding the current tense situation in the world. The subjects of the research are armed conflicts, and above all, the possible ways of conducting them in the future, as well as the domains in which they will be fought. The authors assume that the causes and forms of future armed conflicts will evolve. Changes will depend on the time and place of the outbreak of conflicts, the technology used, as well as the scale of their play. It is also assumed that future armed conflicts will take place in all domains, between equal opponents or between great powers and smaller states or organizations, which are weaker to them in every respect. In the paper, the authors took an attempt to answer the following questions: How will the geopolitical and economic situation in the world change, also in the context of progressing climate change? How will armed conflicts evolve in a changing world? How will future wars play out and what capabilities should military forces have to fight them? According to the analysis, the authors claim that future armed conflicts will: take place in all domains; require a rapid situation assessment and decisions; conducted in a complex environment; include hybrid strategies; increasingly difficult to resolve; non-linear; took the form of asymmetric activities; periodically conducted without electronic devices (an opponent can disable devices or track them); implemented by modular units capable of conducting independent activities at the lowest levels; saturated with robots and drones.

World «wars» for fresh water: realities and prospects

The article presents the results of systematic studies of water conflicts occurring in different regions of our planet. The role and place of fresh water in the life support and vital activity of people are emphasized. The main factors influencing the change in the state and reduction of the planet's water resources are analyzed. The contradiction underlying water conflicts of various kinds is formulated, which can lead to the outbreak of military conflicts between countries, including those with nuclear weapons, due to the problematic use of transnational water resources. The main water conflicts and the causes of their occurrence are investigated. Based on the results of the presentation of the material, the necessary conclusions are made.

Arming Sheīkh Saīd: Conflict and Cooperation in Italian and British Imperial Policy in the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea, 1927-1940

ABSTRACT After the Great War, Imam Yahya, the spiritual and temporal ruler of Yemen, established control over the Yemeni highlands and fought wars against his rivals to extend his power. Jacopo Gasparini, the governor of Italy’s Eritrean colony, increased Italian trade with Yemen, primarily by shipping arms to Imam Yahya. Italian influence in the Arabian peninsula worried British officials. Britain’s primary goal was to protect its imperial road through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea by ensuring that no European Power established itself on the eastern shore or on strategic islands of the Red Sea. In 1927, Italy and Britain signed the Rome Understanding, agreeing to limit their imperial competition in the peninsula. Both parties maintained the Rome Understanding and its successor agreement in the 1938 Easter Accords until the outbreak of the Second World War, although both violated its spirit and letter when convenient. In the latter half of the 1930s, Imam Yahya wanted to acquire naval cannon to defend Sheīkh Saīd, a promontory that overlooked the strategically important Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Both Italian and British officials resisted providing them, as both feared that the other could seize Sheīkh Saīd and use these cannon to bar the southern exit of the Red Sea. After lengthy negotiations, the Italians eventually relented and shipped four naval cannon to Imam Yahya to try to earn his favour before the outbreak of Anglo-Italian conflict in World War Two. The episode of arming Sheīkh Saīd shows the nature of conflict and cooperation in Anglo-Italian relations in the Arabian Peninsula and the ultimate failure to reconcile their imperial interests.

Bhag-Rembhag Sabhala’an as a Method of Resolving Religious Conflicts in the Madura Legal Tradition

Religion-based conflicts often occur in various regions, including Madura. However, there is an interesting conflict resolution, namely through the bhag-rembhag sabhala'an tradition. This research aims to determine the mechanism for resolving religious-based conflicts based on local wisdom through bhag-rembhag sabhala'an which is practiced in Madura. This research uses empirical legal research methods with socio-legal and anthropo-legal approaches, which result in the discussion that: First, the resolution of religious conflicts in the context of national law only focuses on efforts to give verdicts of heresy and guilt to parties who, by the religious majority community, are considered contrary to the understanding of the majority of religious believers, not on efforts to open dialogue and find ways of peace between conflicting communities. Second, the resolution of religious conflicts with the bhag-rembhag sabhala'an emphasises efforts to open dialogue between conflicting adherents by utilising local village figures to find a peaceful way and find a variety of similarities amid striking differences caused by the outbreak of religious conflict. Bhag-rembhag Sabhala'an has long been practised in Madura in the event of differences in understanding and religious conflicts, where humanist and peaceful approaches are preferred over violent ways of resolving conflicts. The real contribution of this research is that the mechanism for resolving religious conflicts based on local wisdom can be the primary choice for parties in resolving religious conflicts. This method prioritises peaceful solutions and respect for religious differences.

Impact of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict on Global Marine Network Based on Massive Vessel Trajectories

Maritime transportation plays a vital role in global trade, and studying the resilience of the global maritime network is crucial for ensuring its sustainable development. Currently, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has garnered significant global attention. However, there is a lack of specific research on the impact of the conflict on maritime shipping, particularly the resilience of the global maritime network. This paper proposes a resilience assessment framework under the influence of significant events by combining complex network metrics and network performance indicators from the resilience triangle model. It quantitatively evaluates the resilience changes in the global maritime network before and after the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The experiment utilizes real automatic identification system (AIS) maritime trajectory data to quantify and visualize the changes in global maritime traffic during a 20-day period before and after the conflict, constructing the global maritime network for resilience calculations. The research findings indicate the following changes occurred after the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Firstly, the global maritime industry experienced overall growth, with increased ship transportation between ports. Transportation in certain regions was negatively affected, with a significant decrease in ship activities in the Black Sea and Adriatic Sea areas. The positions of Russia and Ukraine in the world maritime industry noticeably declined. Secondly, the network connectivity, network size, and network density of the global maritime network significantly increased, indicating an enhanced network resilience. According to our quantitative results, from a topological perspective, we observed the following changes: network connectivity increased by 27.2%, network scale increased by 36.6%, network density increased by 32.4%, and network resilience increased by 18.6%. Thirdly, the global maritime network is characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, and the impact of conflicts on the heterogeneity of the shipping network is not significant. Finally, the network exhibited a slower performance decline under random attacks, while deliberate attacks led to a sharp decline. Due to the adaptive nature of the maritime network, the resilience of the network improves in terms of its topology following the outbreak of conflicts. After conflict incidents, the rate of performance decline during simulated attacks is lower compared to the pre-conflict period.

Climate, conflict and internal migration in Colombia

Robust empirical evidence on the potential causal linkages between environmental change, conflict and migration is scarce. We evaluate this relationship in the context of internal migration in Colombia for the period from 2000 to 2005. Using municipalitylevel data in a gravity model that considers the issue of endogenous selection regarding both the outbreak of conflicts and the existence of non-zero migration flows, we establish an empirical causal link between droughts, conflict and migration. Our results show a positive relationship between the severity of droughts and the likelihood of conflicts, as well as between conflicts and human mobility, suggesting an indirect effect of climate on internal migration in Colombia.

The limits of recovery: coming of age, aspirations and (im)mobility among displaced Pandit youth in Jammu

ABSTRACT How do the displaced recover tangible and intangible losses incurred in displacement? What does the process of recovery involve, especially for members of displaced families who come of age after displacement and face the burden of recovery? This paper engages with these questions in relation to the Hindu minority of the Kashmir valley, better known as the Kashmiri Pandits. Following the outbreak of conflict, the vast majority of this community fled the Kashmir valley in 1990. The paper will explore the biographies of two Kashmiri Pandit men who were children at the time of displacement and came of age in exile. By drawing on their experiences, set in the context of ethnographic research in the city of Jammu in Jammu and Kashmir, this paper examines the process of ‘growing up’ in a non-metropolitan urban area and balancing the recovery of loss alongside the aspirations of the youth. While existing scholarship on societies affected by violence discusses how recovery takes place in engaging with ordinary life, this process has to contend with the limits of ordinary life. The paper argues that the displaced are forced to come to terms with the limits of recovery and confront the dead-endedness of ordinary life.

QUANTIFYING THE ECONOMIC SURVIVE ACROSS THE EU USING MARKOV PROBABILITY CHAINS

The multiple global crisis has made the economies of the world’s countries, including EU’s economy, vulnerable through the downgrading of the pandemic and the subsequent outbreak of geo-political conflict. These two events had the effect of decelerating the European economy and increasing the poverty level of the population, even that these developments are weaker than in rest of the world. The main objective of the present scientific approach is to identify a risk function based on Markov probability chains and to assess the possibilities of economic recovery through a package of policies structured over different time horizons. The used methods consist of meta-analysis, statistical analysis and geo-spatial and temporal modelling. The results of the study capture the integrated developments of risk-generating macroeconomic elements such as inflation, unemployment, public debt growth in a regionally segregated manner. These elements are useful for supranational decision-makers to increase the economic survival rate after multiple shocks through our proposed policy package.

The Battle of Blore Heath: Sources, Historiography and Implications for the Outbreak of Conflict, 1459-60

ABSTRACT Discussion of the battle of Blore Heath (23 September 1459) has focused on the role of Cheshire gentry. This reflects a historiographical tradition that began early in the sixteenth century with Edward Hall. Attempts to reframe analysis of the battle, and in particular to understand dispositions and manoeuvres on the battlefield itself, have placed weight on the evidence of Jehan de Waurin’s chronicle of Great Britain. Compiled from his vantage point at the duke of Burgundy’s court using newsletters and similar materials, Waurin’s account has significant limitations. These are assessed here, alongside further evidence in other narrative sources. This allows for a clearer understanding of the participation of men from across the north-west midlands in the king’s forces, as also of the small group of core followers who accompanied the earl of Salisbury on his journey to rendezvous with the duke of York and other opponents of the court party.

Exploring Sentiments in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Comparative Analysis of KNN, Decision Tree And Logistic Regression Machine Learning Classifiers

The outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine on February 23, 2022, was a huge shock, and it quickly became the dominant topic of conversation on social media. Our research is based on Twitter conversations about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This paper intends to monitor and analyze the Twitter conversation on the continuing war in Ukraine using natural language processing techniques such as word cloud analysis, sentiment analysis, and visualization. The major goal is to acquire insight into Twitter users’ shifting thoughts and opinions on various parts of the conflict over time. The study’s findings have important implications for politicians, journalists, and social media users who want to follow and understand how online communities’ attitudes on global issues change. We hope that this study will help to gain a deeper knowledge of how social media works in affecting public debate and how it might be used to gain insights into public opinion on crucial global issues. In this work logistic regression, K-nearest neighbours and decision tree algorithm are used to analyse the sentiments and got classification accuracy of 94.58%, 88.89% and 90.45% respectively.

Oil and global politics after 24 February 2022

A study of the impact of oil on global politics at this time is necessary to understand the relationship between energy security, geopolitical conflicts, and economic relations, which could substantially affect the future of the global energy landscape and international relations. The purpose of this study was to analyse the impact of the oil market on geopolitical relations and develop strategies to ensure energy security and stability in the international arena. The meth- ods employed include the analytical method, classification method, functional method, statistical method, and synthesis method. The study found that the rise in oil and other energy prices after the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts led to a considerable increase in economic pressure on importing countries. It was emphasised that the development of alterna- tive energy sources has become a vital strategic step to reduce dependence on oil. For instance, expanding the use of solar and wind power can help to balance the energy mix and reduce risks from geopolitical turbulence. The study analysed the possibilities of international cooperation in the energy sector to ensure energy security and stability in the global market. It was found that synergy between countries can help reduce the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the energy market and ensure sustainable energy supplies. It was established that the transition to alternative energy sources and the de- velopment of effective energy security strategies are key factors in supporting the sustainable development of national economies in a changing geopolitical environment. The conclusion is that there is a need to intensify efforts to develop and implement a comprehensive approach to energy regulation to ensure energy stability and maintain international peace and security. The authorities, business, and other stakeholders can use the findings of this study to make strategic decisions in the field of energy and global economic relations