Flu Outbreak Research Articles

Data from Emergency Medical Service Activities: A Novel Approach to Monitoring COVID-19 and Other Infectious Diseases.

Background: Italy, particularly the northern region of Lombardy, has experienced very high rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Several indicators, i.e., the number of new positive cases, deaths and hospitalizations, have been used to monitor virus spread, but all suffer from biases. The aim of this study was to evaluate an alternative data source from Emergency Medical Service (EMS) activities for COVID-19 monitoring. Methods: Calls to the emergency number (112) in Lombardy (years 2015-2022) were studied and their overlap with the COVID-19 pandemic, influenza and official mortality peaks were evaluated. Modeling it as a counting process, a specific cause contribution (i.e., COVID-19 symptoms, the "signal") was identified and enucleated from all other contributions (the "background"), and the latter was subtracted from the total observed number of calls using statistical methods for excess event estimation. Results: A total of 6,094,502 records were analyzed and filtered for respiratory and cardiological symptoms to identify potential COVID-19 patients, yielding 742,852 relevant records. Results show that EMS data mirrored the time series of cases or deaths in Lombardy, with good agreement also being found with seasonal flu outbreaks. Conclusions: This novel approach, combined with a machine learning predictive approach, could be a powerful public health tool to signal the start of disease outbreaks and monitor the spread of infectious diseases.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and its Impact on Consumers' Food Habits

In January 2020, starting as a flu outbreak in China, COVID-19 was soon declared a pandemic, posing a significant threat to public health on a global scale. Albania experienced the initial impacts at the beginning of March 2020, resulting in the first confirmed cases and subsequent governmental measures that affected the entire population. The government implemented a lockdown, necessitating the cessation of operations for all schools and universities due to transportation restrictions and isolation protocols designed to mitigate the spread of the virus. During the first wave of the Pandemic, Albania distinguished itself as one of the countries that effectively managed the crisis. Social distancing measures considerably affected the coordination system, leading to challenges in food supply for families, particularly in urban areas—disruptions within the agri-food supply chain complicated food distribution to markets in sufficient quantities to meet consumer demands. Throughout 2020 and subsequent years, developed countries adopted an online and offline commerce model, deviating from practices established before the COVID-19 pandemic. Food catering services experienced significant growth during the lockdown compared to the pre-pandemic period. These services flourished by implementing various preventive and control measures calibrated to the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Tirana, the capital city, stringent measures impeded both market and governmental efforts to ensure food supply for residents. The unplanned participation of various entities in online food trading facilitated the resolution of this issue. This period proved to be a pivotal opportunity for individuals globally to conceive future solutions.

Enhancing antibody levels and T cell activity of quadrivalent influenza vaccine by combining it with CpG HP021

Influenza virus infections are a serious danger to people’s health worldwide as they are responsible for seasonal flu outbreaks. There is an urgent need to improve the effectiveness and durability longevity of the immune response to influenza vaccines. We synthesized the CpG HP021 and examined the impact of it on the immune response to an influenza vaccine. In BALB/c mice, hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers to the vaccine were increased four- to eightfold against H1N1, H3N2, BV, and BY viruses by 3 μg IIV4 + 40 μg CpG HP021 compared with those of the non-adjuvanted IIV4 group, and the CpG HP021 group had a broader HI activity. Additionally, the immune response was directed towards Type 1 T helper (Th1) cells due to the CpG HP021 adjuvant. The CpG HP021-adjuvanted IIV4 induced a higher number of T cells secreting interferon gamma (IFN-γ) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), and increased the percentage of effector memory T cells in mice. In SD rats, the immune responses induced by IIV4 with CpG HP021 were similar to those in BALB/c mice. The development of CpG HP021 may expand the options for adjuvants in vaccines against infectious diseases.

An Examination of Moderna

Understanding the COVID-19 response for Moderna, a biotechnology company based out of the United States, and compiling the current outlooks regarding vaccinations, development of a diversified product line, and garnering a competitive edge in the biotechnology space is a costly endeavor Moderna is attempting to transverse. Declining revenues, rising costs, and low sales of Moderna's current product have deteriorated the value base. The recent increase in share price is motivated by anticipation of a potential avian flu outbreak and response. This study attempts to shed light on the current financial condition of Moderna.

A comprehensive review of influenza B virus, its biological and clinical aspects.

Influenza B virus (IBV) stands as a paradox, often overshadowed by its more notorious counterpart, influenza A virus (IAV). Yet, it remains a captivating and elusive subject of scientific inquiry. Influenza B is important because it causes seasonal flu outbreaks that can lead to severe respiratory illnesses, including bronchitis, pneumonia, and exacerbations of chronic conditions like asthma. Limitations in the influenza B virus's epidemiological, immunological, and etiological evolution must be addressed promptly. This comprehensive review covers evolutionary epidemiology and pathogenesis, host-virus interactions, viral isolation and propagation, advanced molecular detection assays, vaccine composition and no animal reservoir for influenza B virus. Complex viral etiology begins with intranasal transmission of influenza B virus with the release of a segmented RNA genome that attacks host cell machinery for transcription and translation within the nucleus and the release of viral progeny. Influenza B virus prevalence in domesticated and wild canines, sea mammals, and birds is frequent, yet there is no zoonosis. The periodic circulation of influenza B virus indicates a 1-3-year cycle for monophyletic strain replacement within the Victoria strain due to frequent antigenic drift in the HA near the receptor-binding site (RBS), while the antigenic stability of Yamagata viruses portrays a more conservative evolutionary pattern. Additionally, this article outlines contemporary antiviral strategies, including pharmacological interventions and vaccination efforts. This article serves as a resource for researchers, healthcare professionals, and anyone interested in the mysterious nature of the influenza B virus. It provides valuable insights and knowledge essential for comprehending and effectively countering this viral foe, which continues to pose a significant public health threat.

Multi-Step Forecasting Method For Influenza Pandemic Using Long Short-Term Memory Model To Improve Public Health Conditions

The flu spread is a major global public health problem that gets attention around the world because it can cause serious illness, cost a lot of money, and kill a lot of people every year. To avoid influenza-like disease (ILD) and run healthcare systems well, predicting when an influenza outbreak will happen is essential. Researchers have used Machine Learning (ML) techniques but have yet to find the best ways to see complicated, non-linear trends in sequential data about flu outbreaks. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) are used together in this study to show a new way to predict multi-step influenza breakouts. Every week, the study gathers information on ILD, which covers flu and other illnesses with signs similar to the flu. When measuring performance during busy times, the suggested model does much better than other advanced Machine Learning (ML) methods and Fully Connected Neural Networks (F-CNN).

Update of the COVID-19 Incidence Forecast with the Overlap of Seasonal Flu Outbreaks

Update of the COVID-19 Incidence Forecast with the Overlap of Seasonal Flu Outbreaks

“Puščic prš proži nezaslišana usoda”: anglofonsko gledališče in dramatika po koncu pandemije

Since the days of their conception and for most of their history, theatre institutions and the dramatic genre have indelibly reflected their immediate socio-historic contexts, including epidemics. Although forced to close for a full year during the 1918 outbreak of Spanish flu, however, modern Anglophone theatres and authors deliberately avoided exploiting the pandemic in their works. Conversely, the COVID-19 pandemic directly affected the birthing of new genres and individual plays that included it in their settings and contents, and also motivated discussions on the future of dramatic literature and theatre establishments, particularly with regard to hybrid drama. Building on its author’s previous research, this paper examines British and American dramatic literature and theatre establishments one year after the end of the pandemic, to detect whether Anglophone drama has embraced the new genres, and whether its authors have continued to reflect the pandemic in their works.

Meat production and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Asia

AbstractIs there a link between meat production and infectious diseases? Researchers, policymakers and pundits argue that the growth of demand for meat in Asia can increase the risk of zoonotic diseases, pathogens that originate in animals and can be transmitted to humans. Using original data on zoonotic disease outbreaks in 22 Asian countries between 1996 and 2019, this study examines the impact of beef, chicken and pork production on zoonotic outbreaks—focussing on all diseases and disaggregated subcategories. Because such outbreaks lead to culling animals, data on inorganic chemical fertiliser use are used to identify the plausibly exogenous relationship flowing from meat production to outbreaks. Results indicate that in these countries, intensive meat production may have contributed to a 16%–300% rise (for a one‐million‐tonne increase in output) in zoonotic outbreak incidence. Findings also suggest this relationship is primarily driven by flu pathogens' higher sensitivity to meat production, with a one‐million‐tonne increase in output being associated with a 48%–530% rise in the number of predicted flu outbreaks. These results are consistent across numerous sensitivity analyses accounting for modelling, operationalisation, and data selection choices.

A massive primary spontaneous pneumothorax during the recovery phase of H1N1 pneumonia – An issue of concern

The H1N1 or swine flu outbreak in 2009 was a major pandemic. It is a subtype of influenza A virus that affects humans and has two surface antigens, which led to it being called the novel H1N1 flu. Some patients with swine flu may develop lower respiratory tract infections, which can result in respiratory failure and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In this case report, a patient with H1N1 pneumonia developed massive spontaneous pneumothorax during the recovery phase and concludes that, high pressure mechanical ventilation during the management of H1N1 pneumonia and persistent cough could be the reason for spontaneous development of pneumothorax. However, spontaneous development of pneumothorax in patients with swine flu pneumonia is rarely reported. We present an uncommon case of H1N1 pneumonia-induced pneumothorax that occurred during the recovery phase of the patient. This case report highlights the need for clinicians and healthcare teams to be aware of this potential complication during the post-recovery phase of the patient.

Economic Development after Covid

The identification of Covid cases in China marked the beginning of a global crisis. The virus was first discovered in early 2020, leading to the lockdown of Wuhan city. Subsequently, it spread to India and the rest of the world, causing significant changes in the global economy. This article highlights various economic developments that have occurred during the Covid period, including the growth of the internet, advancements in the medical field, improvements in the IT sector, increased online transactions, enhanced family interactions, and improved healthcare for the people. However, it is important to acknowledge that the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic is a tragic event unfolding worldwide, reminiscent of the Spanish flu outbreak in 1918-19. Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the associated risks, quantifying the economic impact is challenging. Any unforeseen increase in uncertainty can jeopardize both economic growth and financial stability. In light of this, economists at the International Monetary Fund emphasize the need for targeted economic policies, fiscal measures, and appropriate monetary and financial stability policies to strengthen the global economy.

Abundant Intra-Subtype Reassortment Revealed in H13N8 Influenza Viruses.

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) pose a serious threat to global health. On the one hand, these viruses cause seasonal flu outbreaks in humans. On the other hand, they are a zoonotic infection that has the potential to cause a pandemic. The most important natural reservoir of IAVs are waterfowl. In this study, we investigated the occurrence of IAV in birds in the Republic of Buryatia (region in Russia). In 2020, a total of 3018 fecal samples were collected from wild migratory birds near Lake Baikal. Of these samples, 11 were found to be positive for the H13N8 subtype and whole-genome sequencing was performed on them. All samples contained the same virus with the designation A/Unknown/Buryatia/Arangatui-1/2020. To our knowledge, virus A/Unknown/Buryatia/Arangatui-1/2020 is the first representative of the H13N8 subtype collected on the territory of Russia, the sequence of which is available in the GenBank database. An analysis of reassortments based on the genome sequences of other known viruses has shown that A/Unknown/Buryatia/Arangatui-1/2020 arose as a result of reassortment. In addition, a reassortment most likely occurred several decades ago between the ancestors of the viruses recently collected in China, the Netherlands, the United States and Chile. The presence of such reassortment emphasizes the ongoing evolution of the H13N8 viruses distributed in Europe, North and East Asia, North and South America and Australia. This study underscores the importance of the continued surveillance and research of less-studied influenza subtypes.

A Patinformatics perspective of tomato flu and coxsackie viruses

Tomato flu or tomato fever has been reported to be a viral disease by 'The Lancet Respiratory Medicine' journal, detailing about the first instance of this unexplained sickness which occurred on 6 May 2022. This has spread to few regions of India and viral sequencing in 2022 showed its homology with Coxsackie A16 virus. Tomato flu seemed to be a manifestation of Hand-foot-and-mouth-disease (HFMD) caused by Coxsackie viruses. Patent documents are rich source of technological information in a particular area and patents related to diseases are an important area which when extensively explored may give valid scientific clues. Thus, in the present study, we explored the patent landscape of coxsackie viruses, the causal agent of the tomato flu outbreak, to have far sighted effects in future.

Ethnobotanical study and vulnerability of medicinal plants used against the symptoms of COVID-19 in the Lomié subdivision, East Region of Cameroon

Science has advanced to the point that traditional medicine is now a useful instrument for treating a wide range of human ailments. Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) do not, however, have access to the contemporary healthcare system. As a result, they turn to biological resources, which are the only readily available and accessible means of treating diseases like COVID-19 and flu outbreaks. In response to worldwide illnesses, this study aligns with the perspectives of traditional knowledge of biological resources, particularly therapeutic plants. Therefore, this study was aimed to document the use of the potential of medicinal plants by IPLCs in the Lomié subdivision to manage COVID-19 symptoms. In four villages in the Lomié subdivision Ekom, Payo, Eschiambor, and Kongo, ethnobotanical surveys, including semi-structured interviews on traditional usage of plants against Covid-19 symptoms, were carried out with 80 participants in order to meet all of the study specific objectives. For every species, a vulnerability index was established in order to evaluate the species fragility. To analyze the data, both descriptive and inferential statistics were applied. The findings show that the respondents are well aware of the symptoms of the COVID-19 and that gave them the ability to provide timely and efficient responses. The survey identified 43 species from 39 genera grouped in 28 families were used to treat COVID-19 symptoms, with bark being the most commonly used plant part (43.8%). Decoction was the most frequently used method of preparation (50%), and oral administration was the main route of administration (56.3%). Most of the plant species were harvested from secondary forests (44.2%), of which trees formed 48.8%. A total of 30 species were recorded to be vulnerable, with Entandrophragma cylindricum (Sprague) Sprague, Milicia excelsa (Welw.) Benth, Myrianthus arboreus P. Beauv., and Trichoscypha aborea (A. Chev.) A. Chev being the most vulnerable, with vulnerability index of 2.4. The results showed a strong non-causal relationship between vulnerability and the continuous and discontinuous explanatory parameters. The susceptibility of medicinal plants used to treat COVID-19 symptoms and the explanatory parameters had a statistically significant causal association, according to the binomial logistic regression model. In light of novel diseases like COVID-19, this study finds that traditional knowledge of medicinal plants is still widely held, especially among the indigenous and local population. It can also be very beneficial in the development of new medications for a variety of illnesses.

Time‐varying reaction of U.S. meat demand to animal disease outbreaks

AbstractThis study examined the impact of the mad cow (BSE) and bird flu (HPAI) outbreaks on the demand for beef, pork, and broiler meat in the United States from 1997 to 2022. Using time‐varying elasticities obtained from the Rotterdam model extended to include animal disease outbreaks, we found that the BSE outbreaks significantly reduced beef consumption. These reactions were indeed time‐varying, ranging from 1.312% in 2003 to 1.212% in 2005. HPAI outbreaks had a delayed reaction, with a rebound in broiler meat consumption in the quarter following the start of the outbreak. In general, the magnitude of these reactions was proportional to the severity of an outbreak.

Transmission restriction and genomic evolution co-shape the genetic diversity patterns of influenza A virus

Influenza A virus (IAV) shows an extensive host range and rapid genomic variations, leading to continuous emergence of novel viruses with significant antigenic variations and the potential for cross-species transmission. This causes global pandemics and seasonal flu outbreaks, posing sustained threats worldwide. Thus, studying all IAVs' evolutionary patterns and underlying mechanisms is crucial for effective prevention and control. We developed FluTyping to identify IAV genotypes, to explore overall genetic diversity patterns and their restriction factors. FluTyping groups isolates based on genetic distance and phylogenetic relationships using whole genomes, enabling identification of each isolate's genotype. Three distinct genetic diversity patterns were observed: one genotype domination pattern comprising only H1N1 and H3N2 seasonal influenza subtypes, multi-genotypes co-circulation pattern including majority avian influenza subtypes and swine influenza H1N2, and hybrid-circulation pattern involving H7N9 and three H5 subtypes of influenza viruses. Furthermore, the IAVs in multi-genotypes co-circulation pattern showed region-specific dominant genotypes, implying the restriction of virus transmission is a key factor contributing to distinct genetic diversity patterns, and the genomic evolution underlying different patterns was more influenced by host-specific factors. In summary, a comprehensive picture of the evolutionary patterns of overall IAVs is provided by the FluTyping's identified genotypes, offering important theoretical foundations for future prevention and control of these viruses.

Pigs and Pathogens: “Swine Flu” as a Boundary Object for Animal Rights and Farming Discourses

Abstract This paper considers the ways in which discourse around the 2009 Swine Flu outbreak reflects differences in framing and symbolic boundary negotiation amongst animal rights organizations, small scale farming advocates and meat industry representatives. Frame analysis shows how “Swine Flu” is treated as a “boundary object” to negotiate its significance and meaning for human and non-animal health writ large. The ambiguity of the virus’ origins, who was responsible, and who should care allowed Swine Flu to emerge as a boundary object for stakeholders to negotiate within public health discourse. Thematic analysis identified six separate frames, revealing patterns of meaning-making by animal rights organizations (AROs), farm-to-table groups, and meat industry networks. Frame use illustrates how Swine Flu was situated by competing stakeholders to reinforce a network of boundaries. Future directions consider the applicability of frames to understand boundary processes during COVID-19.

Eye Flu Outbreaks in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam: A Potential Threat

Eye Flu Outbreaks in India, Pakistan, and Vietnam: A Potential Threat

CD8+ Tcell epitope conservation in emerging H5N1 viruses suggests global protection.

The recent H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the USA has sparked fresh fears of avian viruses causing the next pandemic. To date, the H5N1 (clade 2.3.4.4b) outbreak in cattle has spread across several states in the USA, with several humans infected following exposure to cows. This H5N1 clade is also reportedly circulating across Europe, Africa and South America. H5N1 was also detected in a child returning to Australia following travel in India where H5N1 (clade 2.3.2.1a) is also reported to be circulating. There are no licenced vaccines against H5N1 avian influenza viruses for humans. Current vaccines aim to protect against seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 variants are unlikely to provide much protection against the different H5, or other avian viruses. CD8+ Tcells are known to provide protection against influenza infection, enhancing viral control and decreasing disease severity. We recently compiled and published a list of the known immunogenic influenza-derived CD8+ Tcell epitopes restricted to the most prevalent 10 HLA-A, -B and -C molecules worldwide. We assessed the conservation of a curated list of these influenza A virus-derived CD8+ Tcell epitopes in H5N1 viruses' sequences at the heart of the outbreak. We identified that > 64% of the CD8+ Tcell epitopes are highly conserved (> 90% sequence identity) in the H5N1 viruses, with 60% (18/30) of the most prevalent HLA-I molecules have at least one immunogenic CD8+ Tcell epitope conserved in H5N1 viruses. Together these HLA-I molecules with conserved epitopes have a cumulative total of > 100% global coverage. Epitopes derived from the NP, M1, PB2, NS1 and PB1 proteins displayed the highest level of conservation. Together, this analysis highlights that globally there is the potential for Tcell cross-recognition against the H5N1 viruses that may provide some protection in humans towards the current avian flu outbreak.

Investigating the Profitability of Government-Funded Small-Scale Broiler Projects in Northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

The frequent failures of government-funded broiler enterprises raise concerns about the viability and wisdom of government funding for smallholders. This study therefore investigates the scope for the profitability of the small-scale broiler production and the range of socio-demographic and production issues that are implicated. The study area was the Northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province of South Africa, where smallholder broiler production is popular. A total of 75 randomly selected, small-scale broiler producers from three districts in Northern KZN, namely, King Cetshwayo, uMkhanyakude, and Zululand, participated in the survey out of the 134 small-scale broiler producers supported by the government. The analyses employed diverse descriptive analysis and included the calculation of the gross margin to proxy broiler chicken profitability. Three models were fitted for the empirical analysis, namely, the OLS, the Two-Stage Least Squares, and the Stochastic Frontier models, to determine the factors influencing profitability, correcting for endogeneity, and computing the technical efficiency and inefficiency of the small-scale broiler production system. The results show that the primary production and marketing challenges were the lack of infrastructure (abattoirs and refrigeration) and the lack of formal markets, including the lack of market information and high transport costs. On average, the sampled government-funded small-scale broiler enterprises achieved a positive gross profit margin of 31 percent, which is relatively low when compared to the small-scale farmers that work for a large-scale enterprise—the Commercial Chicken Farm, near Pietermaritzburg. It was revealed that the profits are significantly influenced by gender, farmgate price, access to market information, and access to extension services. The production system was also shown to be operating at a reasonably high technical efficiency, which is strongly influenced by flock size, feeds, and labour input, while age, gender, and educational level contributed to technical inefficiency. The recent crisis that was experienced by the poultry industry in South Africa linked to the outbreak of the Avian Flu and its devastating consequences point up the urgency for more investment in infrastructure to enhance bird safety at affordable costs. Although the government-funded small-scale broiler enterprises in Northern KZN were found to be viable, it is evident that they can be better, possibly through more capacity building and collective action to take full advantage of the economies of scale.