Emigration Research Articles

Exploring the temporal patterns and crisis-related risk factors for population displacement in Somalia (2016-2018)

IntroductionOver the past 30 years, south-central Somalia, Puntland (north-east) and Somaliland (north-west) have experienced recurring drought- and conflict-related crises. By the end of 2018, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region had reached 2.6 million; most were displaced to larger towns under government control, where humanitarian assistance was more accessible. Understanding the drivers of crisis-related displacement can provide insight into how responses can best manage and respond to displacement to prevent downstream morbidity and mortality. We aimed to explore the temporal patterns and crisis-related risk factors for population displacement in Somalia from 2016 to 2018, a period of severe drought. MethodsWe conducted an ecological study of secondary panel data stratified by district and month. The study population included all people in the region from 2016 to 2018. The outcome was defined as the number of new out-migrating internally displaced persons (IDPs) per district-month. Exposure variables included armed conflict, rainfall, food insecurity and food security services. Lags at one, two and three months were generated to explore possible delayed effects. All univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using negative binomial regression models with mixed effects incorporating the district as a random effect. ResultsFrom 2016 to 2018, the proportion of IDPs increased from 9% to 25% in Somalia, Puntland and Somaliland. We observed strong associations between IDP out-migration rate and failed rains at a three-month lag, food insecurity at a one-month lag, and the presence of therapeutic food services with no lag. IDP out-migration rate was not associated with armed conflict intensity, and cash- and rations-based food security services. DiscussionThis study identified temporal, and socially and biologically plausible associations between key crisis-related risk factors and displacement in Somalia. The findings suggest a sequence of events spanning a few months, where failed rains and consequent food insecurity likely prompted early population out-migration to larger urban centers where humanitarian services were more accessible. The presence of therapeutics-based food security services could represent a more general correlate of crisis severity and the decision to migrate.

High annual survival suggested by size structure of Kemp’s ridley sea turtles captured by coastal research trawling in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean since 1990

Abundance of Kemp’s ridley sea turtle Lepidochelys kempii Garman, 1880 in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA) is far less than in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), but encounters of this species in the NWA have increased in recent decades. Consequently, improved opportunity exists to evaluate population structure, which is of particular interest given suggestions of renewed decline in annual survival rates in the GOM. Here we use size structure for Kemp’s ridley sea turtles captured (n = 617) by research trawling in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) to assess survival since 1990 following age assignment using recently published size-at-age keys. With limited exception, the ratio of older (≥age 10) to younger (ages 1 to 9) sea turtles captured randomly was overwhelmingly stable and best aligned with high (≥0.9) annual neritic survival in theoretical models with fixed annual hatchling (H) recruitment. When annual H recruitment reflected exponential increase in H production since 1985, following low and generally stable production between 1966 and 1984, reduced H emigration proportion from the GOM to NWA and further increase in annual neritic survival were required to achieve the size/age structure reported for in-water data. Stepwise regression using monthly values for 5 climate indices simulated (adj. r2 = 0.77) proportionate annual H decline, which better explained observed survey size/age structure than climate-based prediction (adj. r2 = 1.00) of published particle emigration rates. Temporal decline in proportionate H recruitment to the NWA should increase retention of juveniles in the GOM to further enhance multi-generational population rebuilding.

Language attitudes, practices and identity in the new Lithuanian diaspora

After the changes in the socio-political situation in many countries of Eastern and Central Europe in the last decade of the 20th century, these countries experienced a major growth of emigration. In the context of the European Union, Lithuania is one of the countries that has faced the highest rates of emigration. The quick and somewhat sporadic emigration mainly for economic reasons is of interest both to linguists and language policy makers in order to support and give guidelines for the maintenance of the heritage language and identity. This paper deals with the data of the new post-Soviet wave of Lithuanian emigrants analysing the language behaviour and language attitudes. The aim is to look into the issues of language attitudes, practices and identity through the tripartite theoretical model - beliefs, emotions and declared language practices - of this wave and to compare it to the overall context of Lithuanian diaspora. The data analysed in this paper has been collected using quantitative (online surveys) and qualitative methods (in-depth interviews) in two research projects in the Lithuanian diaspora in 2011-2017. The main focus is on the use of the heritage Lithuanian language in various domains (home, community, friendship, church), comparing the use of Lithuanian by the post-Soviet emigrants with the language behaviour of the emigrants of earlier emigration waves. The results show equally positive beliefs and affective attitudes of the post-Soviet emigrants compared to previous waves, but a different language behaviour especially when comparing to the emigrants of the end of World War II.

Emigration and Political Contestation

Abstract How does migration affect global patterns of political violence and protest? While political scientists have examined the links between trade and conflict, less attention has been paid to the links between migration and conflict. In this paper, we show that greater emigration reduces domestic political violence by providing exit opportunities for aggrieved citizens and economic benefits to those who remain. Emigration also reduces non-violent forms of political contestation, including protests and strikes, implying that high emigration rates can produce relatively quiescent populations. However, larger flows of emigrants to democracies can increase non-violent protest in autocracies, as exposure to freer countries spreads democratic norms and the tools of peaceful opposition. We use instrumental variables analysis to account for the endogeneity of migration flows and find robust results for a range of indicators of civil violence and protest from 1960 to 2010.

Uncertainty About the Size of the Unauthorized Foreign-Born Population in the United States.

One of the most common methods for estimating the U.S. unauthorized foreign-born population is the residual method. Over the last decade, residual estimates have typically fallen within a narrow range of 10.5 to 12 million. Yet it remains unclear how sensitive residual estimates are to their underlying assumptions. We examine the extent to which estimates may plausibly vary owing to uncertainties in their underlying assumptions about coverage error, emigration, and mortality. Findings show that most of the range in residual estimates derives from uncertainty about emigration rates among legal permanent residents, naturalized citizens, and humanitarian entrants (LNH); estimates are less sensitive to assumptions about mortality among the LNH foreign-born and coverage error for the unauthorized and LNH populations in U.S. Census Bureau surveys. Nevertheless, uncertainty in all three assumptions contributes to a range of estimates, whereby there is a 50% chance that the unauthorized foreign-born population falls between 9.1 and 12.2 million and a 95% chance that it falls between 7.0 and 15.7 million.

The effect of landscape structure on the evolution of two alternative dispersal strategies

BackgroundDispersal is an important event for most organisms at least once in their life cycle. The evolution of dispersal can be influenced by local adaptation, landscape structure, and perceived temporal and spatial variation. The interaction between local adaptation, landscape heterogeneity, temporal variability and rules of dispersal may be more complex than previously assumed. Therefore, we sought to understand the influence of emigration rules and landscape structure on emerging dispersal rates and traits. Here, we implemented an individual-based model (IBM) of trait evolution in scenarios characterized by different landscape structures and different degrees of spatial heterogeneity and global temporal variation. Individuals could evolve two traits coding for their environmental niche (position of niche optimum and niche width), and two traits determining nearest-neighbor dispersal: an individual emigrates with a probability defined by the first trait (random emigration), but emigrates with certainty if the fertility expected in the patch of residence falls below a threshold specified by the second trait (habitat-dependent emigration).ResultsWe note an interaction effect between dispersal strategy and spatial variance—lower emigration under habitat-dependent than under random emigration if spatial heterogeneity is low, but eventually a reversal of this ranking if heterogeneity becomes large. Landscapes with sharp transition of habitat attributes result in a high degree of spatial sorting, while fractal landscapes do not. Emigration rates are overall lowest, when spatial variation is highest.ConclusionsWe conclude that emergent emigration rates are influenced more by landscape structure and spatio-temporal heterogeneity than by the emigration strategy. With the ongoing land use change more research into this topic could help highlight the difficulties species might face under the change from landscapes characterized by gradual transition zones to landscapes dominated by abrupt ecotones, the latter typical for agricultural and urban settings.

Out-migration and social and technological marginalization in Romania. Regional disparities

Migration is one of the drivers of population change in Europe. Out-migration has become a relatively new phenomenon for Romania, especially after the fall of communism and the accession to the European Union. According to EUROSTAT, Romania ranks fifth in the out-migration hierarchy at EU level. The present study aims to provide an insight on the influence of social and technological development level on the out-migration flows by computing and correlating the Social and Technological Disadvantage Index to Out-migration Rate. The study is conducted based on the statistical data available provided by the National Institute of Statistics and by the Romania's representative body of clusters. The study is carried out at the level of 42 Romanian counties (NUTS3 level) for the 2018 timeline. The main findings of the study are related to the fact that the high magnitude of out-migration pertain, on the one hand, to a low level of the social and technological degree (a group of counties from Southern Romania) and, on the other hand, to a high level (such as the case of several counties from Western or Central Romania, Bucharest Municipality and thereabouts). A distinct situation is that of the Eastern counties, which are no longer an area for high emigration, compared to the 2002–2007 period.

Entrapment and escape: Exploring the relationship between suicide and emigration in a post-communist country.

Suicide rate in Hungary was nearly the highest in the world in the decades preceding the transition of the social system. Shortly after the transition in 1989, a radical decrease in fatal suicides occurred, parallel with a marked increase in emigration. We analyzed the data published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office to detect if there was an association between the remarkable drop in suicide rates and the changes in emigration rates from 1995 to 2019. The results of a brief statistical analysis on the correlation between suicide rate and emigration confirmed a strong negative relationship (r = -.855, p = .00). For more precise results, we applied linear regression analysis, which showed that the emigration rate predicted 73.2% of suicide rate variances with a high predictive value (β = -.983). The study provides a possible explanation through a phenomenological analysis on major life transformations. Relating the arrested flight/cry of pain theory, the theory of rites of passage and double-bind communication resulted a comprehensive and coherent, but not exhaustive explanation on the relationship between suicide and emigration.

Cannot keep up with the Joneses: how relative deprivation pushes internal migration in Austria

PurposeUsing aggregated data at the municipality level allows the authors to assess the role of relative deprivation (RD) – a measure of income inequality – on top of absolute income in shaping internal migration in Austria.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors analyse the effect of regional income inequality on emigration rates of Austrian municipalities using a unique spatial dataset that is constructed based on Austrian administrative register data. The register-based data contain information on the municipality of residence of all individuals aged 16 and over that have their main residency in Austria, as well as their income and socio-demographic characteristics.FindingsThe authors find that increases in relative deprivation in a municipality are related to higher emigration from the municipality. Allowing for heterogeneous effects across income, education and age groups reveals that the effect is stronger among those with comparably low levels of income and among low-skilled and young individuals.Originality/valueThe unique spatially disaggregated perspective is based on novel data from Austrian administrative registers, which comprehensively capture the economic situation and geographic movements of the whole Austrian population. Most importantly, this approach allows for measuring income inequality within local communities and for a direct identification of social groups that are more sensitive to inequality.

Season and Discharge Predict Downstream Emigration Rates for Reservoir Sport Fish Populations

AbstractGiven the importance of reservoir fisheries and the investments made by fisheries management agencies to create and maintain these fisheries, the loss of reservoir‐stocked fish through downstream emigration warrants action to be taken to understand and prevent it. The factors driving emigration of reservoir fish and the measurable effects of emigration on fish population dynamics are not well understood. In this study, we sought to understand the seasonal emigration patterns of two popular sport fish, saugeye (female Walleye Sander vitreus × male Sauger Sander canadensis) and Muskellunge Esox masquinongy, and determine if their annual declines in abundance were correlated with predicted annual emigration rates. We modeled daily emigration probabilities of saugeye and Muskellunge from PIT tag data collected in the dam spillway of an Ohio reservoir. Using data on discharge from previous years, these models were used to estimate annual emigration rates, which were regressed against historical catch data to test whether emigration explained annual cohort declines. Our models showed that downstream emigration from the reservoir occurred primarily during spring for both species, especially during periods of high reservoir discharge. All saugeye and nearly all Muskellunge emigrants were adults, with 13% of tagged adult saugeye and 17% of tagged adult Muskellunge emigrating. Our models predicted historical annual emigration losses (across all age‐classes) as high as 24% for saugeye and 8.6% for Muskellunge. Furthermore, historical annual emigration rates were negatively related to catch rates for both species. These results illustrate that, depending on flow regime and seasonal effects on fish movements, emigration can have measurable effects on reservoir sport fish populations. As such, it is important to understand the factors driving downstream migration and use this understanding to inform decisions on potential mitigation of emigration as well as fish stocking decisions.

Wild juvenile salmonid abundance in Wisconsin tributaries indicates limited contributions to Lake Michigan fisheries

Natural reproduction of salmonids occurs in many Lake Michigan tributaries, yet little is known about abundance and the potential contribution of wild fish hatching in Wisconsin tributaries. The objectives of our study were to determine if: 1) abundance of wild juvenile salmonids (primarily adfluvial rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, referred to as steelhead) varied among selected Wisconsin streams based on available spawning and age-0 habitat; 2) stream temperature regimes could limit survival of juvenile salmonids, and 3) wild juvenile salmonids outmigrate from Wisconsin tributaries into Lake Michigan or larger tributaries. In 2016 and 2017, juvenile salmonid abundance was estimated in six Wisconsin tributaries to Lake Michigan by multiple-pass depletion sampling using backpack electrofishing. Habitat assessments included steelhead redd surveys, age-0 habitat surveys, and stream temperatures were monitored using in-stream loggers. Passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and PIT antennas were used to detect outmigration from three streams (Willow, Stony and Hibbard creeks). Population estimates for individual streams ranged from 75 to 2276 for juvenile steelhead and from 0 to 243 for juvenile coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch. No correlation was detected between juvenile steelhead abundance and quality age-0 habitat. Stream temperatures rarely exceeded the thermal limit for steelhead (27 °C). Outmigration rates for three streams ranged from 0.6% to 3.1%, but these estimates were considered minimum values. Low abundance of wild juvenile steelhead and coho salmon alone suggest that the contributions of these tributaries to Lake Michigan fisheries are likely small. Furthermore, relying on returns of wild steelhead produced in these streams is probably insufficient to maintain stream fisheries.

Population Forecast with Focus on Emigration: Scenarios for the Case of Peripheral Region

Sustainable decision-making and policies for regional development need clear understanding of future trends in population change. Emigration as one of the core factors of population change causes the greatest uncertainty in the demographic forecasts. Population change due to emigration is bright especially in peripheral regions what strengthens their unfavourable socio-economic conditions. Within the present study, the authors forecast population change due to emigration in peripheral region with high emigration rates. The authors offer three scenarios – current, half of current, and zero emigration, which demonstrate how differentiated population change due to emigration may be in case of different suppositions. Such approach focuses on the issue at local level. For numerical expression of population change, the authors apply simulation model based on system dynamics methods. Forecast results of future population change due to emigration in each scenario may be as a basis for timely inclusion of issues in regional development policies.

Conditional natal dispersal provides a mechanism for populations tracking resource pulses after fire

AbstractAnimals that persist in spatially structured populations face the challenge of tracking the rise and fall of resources across space and time. To combat these challenges, theory predicts that species should use conditional dispersal strategies that allow them to emigrate from patches with declining resources and colonize new resource patches as they appear. We studied natal dispersal movements in the black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus), a species known for its strong association with recent post-fire forests in western North America. We radio-tracked juveniles originating from seven burned areas and tested hypotheses that environmental and individual factors influence dispersal distance and emigration rates—investigating emigration while additionally accounting for imperfect detection with a novel Bayesian model. We found that juveniles were more likely to leave natal areas and disperse longer distances if they were heavier or hatched in older burned areas where resources are increasingly scarce. Juveniles were also more likely to leave their natal burn if they hatched in a nest closer to the fire perimeter. While dispersing across the landscape, black-backed woodpeckers selected for burned forest relative to unburned available habitat. Together, these results strongly support the hypothesis that black-backed woodpecker populations track resource pulses across fire-prone landscapes, with conditional natal dispersal acting as a mechanism for locating and colonizing newly burned areas. Lending empirical support to theoretical predictions, our findings suggest that changes in resource distribution may shape dispersal patterns and, consequently, the distribution and persistence of spatially structured populations.

Inheritance Institutions and Landholding Inequality in Nineteenth-Century Germany: Evidence from Hesse-Cassel Villages and Towns

This paper considers the German principality of Hesse-Cassel in the 1850s, comparing inheritance institutions and landholding inequality for roughly a thousand mostly agricultural villages and towns. The principality lay between impartible northern Europe and the partible southwest. Inequality in landholding size is measured, showing an average Gini of 0.615 and substantial variation across communities. Places with relatively larger populations and ones that practiced impartible inheritance had mostly higher wealth inequality. The main result is that inheritance norms played a role in causing higher landholding inequality. Higher emigration rates in the impartible communities helped to alleviate landholding inequality.

EU Transmigrants in Belgrade as Agents of Europeanisation from Below

Abstract Migration studies are usually concerned with involuntary or underprivileged migrants living in highly developed societies. In contrast, this article focuses on emigration from affluent to less developed countries, using the example of EU lifestyle women transmigrants living in Belgrade. Serbia is a Western Balkan EU candidate country with a high youth emigration rate. The aim of this study is to question whether EU migrants can be development actors in a Western Balkan country. The bulk of the ethnographic research was conducted in 2018 by way of a series of interviews. The findings show that by using their “transcultural capital” in Serbia, the interviewees have the development potential to act as agents of “Europeanisation from below” and avoid the negative public perception of Europeanisation as a tool of Western domination in the region. However, in order to fulfil their development roles, affluent migrants first need to be recognised in Serbian migration management policies and supported by the local authorities.

Aid for health, economic growth, and the emigration of medical workers

AbstractDebates on the extent to which developing countries suffer from a brain drain often focus on the emigration of locally scarce health personnel. In this paper, we empirically examine how two potential determinants—aid for health and local income levels—affect the emigration rates of doctors and nurses from developing countries. Employing a standard gravity model of international migration, we show that aid for health has a negative effect on the emigration of both nurses and doctors. Our findings suggest that donors influence the emigration decisions of doctors and nurses through improvements in health infrastructure. Higher income per capita is also associated with lower emigration from developing countries for doctors and nurses alike. Given that nurses typically belong to the poorer segments of populations in the countries of origin, we can conclude that even at low initial income levels, on balance, economic growth provides an incentive to stay.

“Who would want to lay down into the permafrost?”: an attempt to explain differences in migration rates, strategies and attitudes in two Russian northern cities

ABSTRACT The macro-level explanations for the massive outflux of the population from the Russian Arctic after 1991 mostly do not account for local differences in out-migration rates. At the same time, these differences can be exceptionally large. This paper uses ethnographic methods to explain significant differences in the rates of population outflux between the cities of Vorkuta and Ukhta, Komi Republic, Russia, which exist despite the very similar history and current social and macroeconomic situation of the two cities. The study indicates differences in attitudes to migration and in-migration strategies among the inhabitants of the two cities. It is suggested that the presence of a large group of inhabitants with the same geographic origin and the same solidarity-promoting occupation in Vorkuta, but not in Ukhta, in the late Soviet period can partly explain this difference. The migration of the members of this group back towards the region of their origin created a migration network with certain cultural norms and expectations related to it; thus, a certain culture of migration emerged. The study points to the potentially significant role of social and cultural factors in shaping the patterns of recent migrations from the Russian Arctic.

Efectos de la violencia sobre las tasas de emigración interna municipal en México: 1995-2015

This article explores the relationship between the increase of violence in Mexico and the rising level of internal municipal emigration before, during, and after the so-called Mexican Drug War, which started in 2007. Through a linear regression and multinomial logistic models, it is shown that violence has had a positive and significant effect on the increase of internal emigration rates, particularly in municipalities with the highest internal emigration rates during the 2005-2010 period. In addition, the effect of violence tendsto be greater on female emigration rates compared to males. This indicates the increase of forced internal displacement in Mexico due to violence in recent years. However, more studies are needed to shed light on forced displacement and the effects of high violence levels on internal and international migration.

Orangutan movement and population dynamics across human-modified landscapes: implications of policy and management

ContextAgricultural expansion is a leading cause of deforestation and habitat fragmentation globally. Policies that support biodiversity and facilitate species movement across farmland are therefore central to sustainability efforts and wildlife conservation in these human-modified landscapes.ObjectivesWe investigated the conservation impact of several potential management scenarios on animal populations and movement in a human-modified tropical landscape, focusing on the critically endangered Bornean orangutan, Pongo pygmaeus.MethodsWe used an individual-based modelling platform to simulate population dynamics and movements across four possible landscape management scenarios for a highly modified oil palm-dominated landscape in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo.ResultsScenarios that maximised the retention of natural forest remnants in agricultural areas through sustainability certification standards supported stable orangutan populations. These populations were up to 45% larger than those supported under development-focused scenarios, where forest retention was not prioritised. The forest remnants served as corridors or stepping-stones, increasing annual emigration rates across the landscape, and reducing orangutan mortality by up to 11%. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that this outcome was highly contingent on minimising mortality during dispersal.ConclusionsManagement that promotes maximising natural forest cover through certification, such as that promoted by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, can maintain viable orangutan populations over the lifespan of an oil palm plantation and facilitate movement among otherwise isolated populations. However, minimising hunting and negative human–orangutan interactions, while promoting peaceful co-existence between apes and people, will be imperative to insure positive conservation outcomes.

Population dynamics of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) in Guadeloupe, French Caribbean: A mark‐recapture study from 2001 to 2013

AbstractSperm whales are present along the Caribbean islands in family groups of mature females, juveniles, and newborns. Their abundance and demographic rates remain poorly known. Using photo‐identification data, we estimated the abundance and annual survival of sperm whales in Guadeloupe from January to April 2001–2013. A total of 1,492 photographs of tail flukes were scored (ranging from 1 to 5) in terms of quality (Q) and marking (M) level. A total of 789 photographs were selected with Q ≥ 3 and M ≥ 3, corresponding to 109 individually identified adult females or immatures of both sexes. Capture histories were built and analyzed using the Pollock's robust design capture‐mark‐recapture model. The study consisted of 13 primary periods sequenced in 5–8 secondary periods. Mean annual survival rate of residents was 0.945, 95% CI [0.864, 0.979]. Abundance varied between years from 75 to 35 individuals. The geometric growth rate over the period 2001–2013 was 0.938, 95% CI [0.878, 0.997], suggesting a population decline of −6.2%/year. Sperm whales are moving between Guadeloupe and Dominica, with a high temporary emigration rate (0.163) and 50% of the individuals of Guadeloupe resighted in Dominica. These results highlight the fragility of the population and the necessity to consider it as one unit.