Origin-destination Demand Research Articles

Incorporating policy mixes to multimodal network capacity considering second-best constraints

In the pursuit of capacity-oriented urban sustainable development (SD), this study aims to enhance the multimodal transport network by making it more accessible, efficient, and environmentally friendly. A sustainable framework combining policy mixes and second-best constraints is developed as a multimodal transportation network capacity (TNC) model with the bi-level programming (BLP) formulation. The upper-level model is to maximise the total origin-destination (OD) demand with considering second-best constraints. The lower-level model is a combined mode split and traffic assignment with elastic demand (CMSTA-ED) model which considers policy mixes. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid PSO–GWO algorithm, the synergy of the method for selecting and mixing policy instruments based on the proposed assessment system, and a methodology to establish a policy mix. The findings of this research offer practical guidance for formulating well-informed and no-redundant policy mixes, contributing to the improvement of sustainable multimodal transportation network performance.

An Integrated Framework for Estimating Origins and Destinations of Multimodal Multi-Commodity Import and Export Flows Using Multisource Data

Estimating origin-destination (OD) demand is integral to urban, regional, and national freight transportation planning and modeling systems. However, in developing countries, existing studies reveal significant inconsistencies between OD estimates for domestic and import/export commodities derived from interregional input-output (IO) tables and those from regional IO tables. These discrepancies create a significant challenge for properly forecasting the freight demand of regional/interregional multimodal transportation networks. To this end, this study proposes a novel integrated framework for estimating regional and international (import/export) OD freight flows for a set of key commodities that dominate long-distance transportation. The framework leverages multisource data and follows a three-step process. First, a spatial economic model, PECAS activity allocation, is developed to estimate freight OD demand within a specific region. Second, the international (import and export) freight OD is estimated from different zones to foreign countries, including major import and export nodes such as international seaports, using a gravity model with the zone-pair friction obtained from a multimodal transportation model. Third, the OD matrices are converted from monetary value to tonnage and assigned to the multimodal transportation super network using the incremental freight assignment method. The model is calibrated using traffic counts of the highways, railways, and port throughput data. The proposed framework is tested through a case study of the Province of Jiangxi, which is crucial for forecasting freight demand before the planning, design, and operation of the Ganyue Canal. The predictive analytics of the proposed framework demonstrated high validity, where the goodness-of-fit (R2) between the observed and estimated freight flows on specific links for each of the three transport modes was higher than 0.9. This indirectly confirms the efficacy of the model in predicting freight OD demands. The proposed framework is adaptable to other regions and aids practitioners in providing a comprehensive tool for informed decision-making in freight demand modeling.

Short-Term Origin-Destination Demand Prediction Based on Spatiotemporal Encoder-Decoder Network with a Residual Feature Extractor

Online ride-hailing services play a crucial role in daily transportation, However, challenges persist in certain regions with limited access, and drivers encounter difficulties in receiving orders. Accurate prediction of short-term origin-destination (OD) demand is crucial for addressing these issues. This study leverages recent advancements in artificial intelligence and big data to introduce a spatiotemporal encoder-decoder network with a residual feature extractor (RF-STED) for short-term OD demand prediction in online ride-hailing services. The RF-STED model, built on deep learning models such as graph convolutional networks and convolutional long short-term memory (Conv-LSTM), includes spatiotemporal networks, encoding layers, and a residual feature extractor. The spatiotemporal network has two branches: branch one processes multi-pattern OD data using a multi-pattern temporal feature extraction module, utilizing a multi-channel Conv-LSTM to capture temporal correlations. Branch two utilizes a multi-spatial feature extraction module to convert OD pair associations into a spatial topology, extracting multi-spatial correlations. The encoding layer captures spatiotemporal dependencies, while the residual feature extractor decodes compressed vectors back into an OD graph for forecasting future demand. Experiments with a Manhattan taxi dataset in the U.S. show the RF-STED model outperforms 10 baseline models and four ablation models. The results emphasize the model’s strength and robustness in short-term OD flow prediction.

Modeling Multimodal Curbside Usage in Dynamic Networks

The proliferation of emerging mobility technology has led to a significant increase in demand for ride-hailing services, on-demand deliveries, and micromobility services, transforming curb spaces into valuable public infrastructure for which multimodal transportation competes. However, the increasing utilization of curbs by different traffic modes has substantial societal impacts, further altering travelers’ choices and polluting the urban environment. Integrating the spatiotemporal characteristics of various behaviors related to curb utilization into general dynamic networks and exploring mobility patterns with multisource data remain a challenge. To address this issue, this study proposes a comprehensive framework of modeling curbside usage by multimodal transportation in a general dynamic network. The framework encapsulates route choices, curb space competition, and interactive effects among different curb users, and it embeds the dynamics of curb usage into a mesoscopic dynamic network model. Furthermore, a curb-aware dynamic origin-destination demand estimation framework is proposed to reveal the network-level spatiotemporal mobility patterns associated with curb usage through a physics-informed data-driven approach. The framework integrates emerging real-world curb use data in conjunction with other mobility data represented on computational graphs, which can be solved efficiently using the forward-backward algorithm on large-scale networks. The framework is examined on a small network as well as a large-scale real-world network. The estimation results on both networks are satisfactory and compelling, demonstrating the capability of the framework to estimate the spatiotemporal curb usage by multimodal transportation. History: This paper has been accepted for the Transportation Science Special Issue on ISTTT25. Funding: This material is based upon work supported by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy [Award DE-EE0009659]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2024.0522 .

Distributionally robust origin–destination demand estimation

Gaining a good understanding of the travel demands of a city or region is extremely important for many transportation applications. For stochastic origin–destination (OD) estimation problems, an accurate distribution assumption or observation of OD estimates or data is usually desired but not always available. In this paper, we establish a novel two-stage OD estimation framework based on distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and quasi-sparsity property of large-scale OD demand matrices. The proposed two-stage Distributionally Robust Quasi-Sparsity OD estimation (DR-QSOD) model does not require an accurate or complete distribution assumption of estimates/data. Numerical results demonstrate that DR-QSOD model outperforms stochastic QSOD model in estimating OD demands when the distribution assumption of data is biased. This paper also discusses two different approaches to solve the DR-QSOD model as well as compares their computational efficiency. In addition, DR-QSOD model is shown to keep relatively high quasi-sparsity consistency, which also brings lots of meaningful practical insights.

Optimization of electric charging infrastructure: integrated model for routing and charging coordination with power-aware operations

With the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), optimizing charging operations has become imperative to ensure efficient and sustainable mobility. This study proposes an optimization model for the charging and routing of electric vehicles between Origin-Destination (OD) demands. The objective is to develop an efficient and reliable charging plan that ensures the successful completion of trips while considering the limited range and charging requirements of electric vehicles. This paper presents an integrated model for optimizing electric vehicle (EV) charging operations, considering additional factors of setup time, charging time, bidding price estimation, and power availability from three sources: the electricity grid, solar energy, and wind energy. One crucial aspect addressed by the model is the estimation of bidding prices for both day-ahead and intra-day electricity markets. The model also considers the total power availability from the electricity grid, solar energy, and wind energy. The alignment of charging operations with the capacity of the grid and prevailing bidding prices is essential.This ensures that the charging process is optimized and can effectively adapt to the available grid capacity and market conditions. The utilization of renewable energies led to a 42% decrease in the electricity storage capacity available in batteries at charging stations. Furthermore, this integration leads to a substantial cost reduction of approximately 69% compared to scenarios where renewable energy is not utilized. Hence, the proposed model can design renewable energy systems based on the required electricity capacity at charging stations. These findings highlight the compelling financial advantages associated with the adoption of sustainable power sources.

Spatial-temporal memory enhanced multi-level attention network for origin-destination demand prediction

Origin-destination demand prediction is a critical task in the field of intelligent transportation systems. However, accurately modeling the complex spatial-temporal dependencies presents significant challenges, which arises from various factors, including spatial, temporal, and external influences such as geographical features, weather conditions, and traffic incidents. Moreover, capturing multi-scale dependencies of local and global spatial dependencies, as well as short and long-term temporal dependencies, further complicates the task. To address these challenges, a novel framework called the Spatial-Temporal Memory Enhanced Multi-Level Attention Network (ST-MEN) is proposed. The framework consists of several key components. Firstly, an external attention mechanism is incorporated to efficiently process external factors into the prediction process. Secondly, a dynamic spatial feature extraction module is designed that effectively captures the spatial dependencies among nodes. By incorporating two skip-connections, this module preserves the original node information while aggregating information from other nodes. Finally, a temporal feature extraction module is proposed that captures both continuous and discrete temporal dependencies using a hierarchical memory network. In addition, multi-scale features cascade fusion is incorporated to enhance the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, extensively experiments are conducted on two real-world datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the ST-MEN model achieves excellent prediction accuracy, where the maximum improvement can reach to 19.1%.

Origin-destination demand prediction of public transit using graph convolutional neural network

The insight into origin–destination (OD) demand patterns aids transport planners in making the public transit system more efficient and attractive. This may encourage individuals to shift from private vehicles to public transit, easing the burden on traffic and its negative impacts. Hence, to know how OD demand is going to vary in future, a state-of-the-art OD demand prediction model needs to be developed. Previously, studies have developed zone-based prediction models which may not be appropriate for predicting OD demand within a route of public transit. Additionally, spatial correlations between the stops of public transit must be included in the model for improved forecasting accuracy. Hence, in an effort to fulfil these gaps, a Graph Convolutional Neural Network (GCN) is developed to forecast the OD demand of public bus transit with nodes being the bus stops and links between them representing the passenger flow between the stops. Land use around the bus stops is retrieved as a node feature and included in the model to account for the spatial correlation between the stops. The model is trained using a real-life dataset from the public bus service of Davangere city located in India. Land use around the bus stops is extracted from the Davangere city master plan, procured from the urban development authority. The developed model is compared with conventional models and the findings show that the GCN model performs better in terms of prediction accuracy than the baseline models. Additionally, at the stop level, the performance of the model remained stable due to the inclusion of land use data compared to conventional models where land use data was not considered.

Disaggregated spatiotemporal traffic assignment for road reservation service and supply-demand statistical analysis

This paper develops a disaggregated spatiotemporal traffic assignment method with a system-optimal (SO) orientation and analyzes the supply-demand matching degree with four statistical indexes under the background of a road reservation system. Three key issues are addressed. Firstly, the paper illustrates the service process of a road reservation system. It is essential to know how the road reservation system works and the difference between it and other reservation systems. Secondly, a spatiotemporal discretization expression method based on the system-optimal traffic assignment (SOTA) model with predictive origin-destination demand for link travel time is put forward to make the supply space could be reserved, and the demand would not be mutually interfering. Thirdly, the study proposes a reverse feasible spatiotemporal route searching algorithm based on the expected arrival time to individually assign the applicants on the road network. This route searching algorithm does not use the network topology but the spatiotemporal discretized links. The departure time preference was considered in the feasible spatiotemporal route searching algorithm. Moreover, as the real demand distribution of the whole reservation area is not difficult to obtain after a period of updates, it is possible to analyze the supply-demand matching degree of the road network. Thus, four statistical indexes are proposed to assess the state variation of the road network. Simulation results verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. The novel reverse feasible routes searching algorithm has a system-optimal trend with inputting the demand individually and an acceptable calculating efficiency. The method proposed by this paper could ensure a reliable road reservation service with accurate demand prediction. Considering the departure time preference would not bring extra burden to the road reservation system but provide more user-friendly service. Through the analysis, the supply-demand matching degree of the road network is significantly influenced by the cohesive capacity connection of the upstream and downstream links. This indicates the network structure and road attributes optimization should be considered in enhancing the road reservation service.

Physics Guided Deep Learning-Based Model for Short-Term Origin–Destination Demand Prediction in Urban Rail Transit Systems Under Pandemic

Accurate origin–destination (OD) demand prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and management of urban rail transit (URT) systems, particularly during a pandemic. However, this task faces several limitations, including real-time availability, sparsity, and high-dimensionality issues, and the impact of the pandemic. Consequently, this study proposes a unified framework called the physics-guided adaptive graph spatial–temporal attention network (PAG-STAN) for metro OD demand prediction under pandemic conditions. Specifically, PAG-STAN introduces a real-time OD estimation module to estimate real-time complete OD demand matrices. Subsequently, a novel dynamic OD demand matrix compression module is proposed to generate dense real-time OD demand matrices. Thereafter, PAG-STAN leverages various heterogeneous data to learn the evolutionary trend of future OD ridership during the pandemic. Finally, a masked physics-guided loss function (MPG-loss function) incorporates the physical quantity information between the OD demand and inbound flow into the loss function to enhance model interpretability. PAG-STAN demonstrated favorable performance on two real-world metro OD demand datasets under the pandemic and conventional scenarios, highlighting its robustness and sensitivity for metro OD demand prediction. A series of ablation studies were conducted to verify the indispensability of each module in PAG-STAN.

The Bus Rapid Transit investment problem

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems can provide a fast and reliable service to passengers at low investment costs compared to tram, metro and train systems. Therefore, they can be of great value to attract more passengers to use public transport. This paper thus focuses on the BRT investment problem: Which segments of a single bus line should be upgraded such that the number of newly attracted passengers is maximized? Motivated by the construction of a new BRT line around Copenhagen, we consider a setting in which multiple parties are responsible for the financing of different segments of the line. As each party has a limited willingness to invest, we solve a bi-objective problem to quantify the trade-off between the number of attracted passengers and the investment budget. We model different problem variants: First, we consider two potential passenger responses to upgrades on the line. Second, to prevent scattered upgrades along the line, we consider different restrictions on the number of upgraded connected components on the line. We propose an epsilon-constraint-based algorithm to enumerate the complete set of non-dominated points and investigate the complexity of this problem. Moreover, we perform extensive numerical experiments on artificial instances and a case study based on the BRT line around Copenhagen. Our results show that we can generate the full Pareto front for real-life instances and that the resulting trade-off between investment budget and attracted passengers depends both on the origin–destination demand and on the passenger response to upgrades. Moreover, we illustrate how the generated Pareto plots can assist decision makers in selecting from a set of geographical route alternatives in our case study.

Developing a novel approach in estimating urban commute traffic by integrating community detection and hypergraph representation learning

The efficiency of urban traffic management and congestion alleviation relies heavily on accurate forecasting of Origin-Destination (O-D) demand matrices. Existing models primarily focus on estimating O-D demand for various travel purposes throughout the day, which is characterised by its pulsating nature. However, these models often compromise the precision of peak-hour forecasts, leading to unreliable dynamic traffic control and challenges in effectively reducing peak-hour congestion. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes a novel method for predicting commuting O-D demand matrices. Our method employs community detection algorithms on road networks to precisely partition commute O-D regions, incorporating Points of Interest (POIs). We also present a spatio-temporal dynamic weighted hypergraph model that leverages these partitioned regions, time characteristics from observed O-D trips, and meteorological data to improve forecasting. Comparative analyses with contemporary models and ablation studies indicate our method significantly enhances prediction accuracy, by approximately 5%. These findings imply that the proposed method more effectively encompasses the varied characteristics of commuting during peak hours, thereby providing more accurate demand matrices for urban traffic management.

Multi-Type traffic sensor system design for multi-period network-wide speed-flow estimation with day-to-day uncertainties

Owing to budget limitations, traffic sensors cannot be installed on each link of a road network in practice. Thus, optimizing the locations of a limited number of sensors is crucial for development of various intelligent transportation systems. This paper devises a multi-type traffic sensor location model with consideration of day-to-day flow variations by hourly period. Based on the devised model, network-wide link speeds and flows in multiple periods, even on those links without installed sensors, can be estimated. The link speed and flow estimator is formulated as a bi-level model, in which the upper-level model estimates multi-period origin–destination (OD) demands, and the lower-level model assigns the resultant OD demands onto the study network to obtain the hourly link flows and speeds. The case studies on both synthetic and real road networks demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of the multi-period multi-type sensor location scheme and provide valuable insights.

Redesigning large-scale multimodal transit networks with shared autonomous mobility services

This study addresses a large-scale multimodal transit network design problem, with Shared Autonomous Mobility Services (SAMS) as both transit feeders and an origin-to-destination mode. The framework captures spatial demand and modal characteristics, considers intermodal transfers and express services, determines transit infrastructure investment and path flows, and generates transit routes. A system-optimal multimodal transit network is designed with minimum total door-to-door generalized costs of users and operators, satisfying transit origin–destination demand within a pre-set infrastructure budget. Firstly, the geography, demand, and modes in each zone are characterized with continuous approximation. The decisions of network link investment and multimodal path flows in zonal connection optimization are formulated as a minimum-cost multi-commodity network flow (MCNF) problem and solved efficiently with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) solver. Subsequently, the route generation problem is solved by expanding the MCNF formulation to minimize intramodal transfers. The model is illustrated through a set of experiments with the Chicago network comprised of 50 zones and seven modes, under three scenarios. The computational results present savings in traveler journey time and operator cost demonstrating the potential benefits of collaboration between multimodal transit systems and SAMS.

Continuous-Time and Discrete-Time Representation Learning for Origin-Destination Demand Prediction

Continuous-Time and Discrete-Time Representation Learning for Origin-Destination Demand Prediction

An empirical study on the stochastic long-term travel demands of a large-scale metro network

The widely-existed uncertainty of origin–destination (OD) demand in transportation networks has attracted extensive attention. Most characterizations or modeling of stochastic OD demands in networks assume a homogenous probability distribution, but it lacks empirical studies of large-scale networks to justify this assumption. Given that the long-term continuous automatic fare collection data of metro networks can provide complete OD passenger demand information, this study takes the Shanghai Metro network as an example to empirically examine the stochasticity characteristics of OD passenger demands of metro network. Based on the morning peak OD demand data for 250 weekdays, a local outlier factor method is used to identify and remove outliers in the data. A clustering method is used to cluster the OD pairs, study the fluctuation and distribution characteristics of the OD passenger demands, and select the optimal distribution type through goodness-of-fit indices. The results show that 1) the coefficients of variation of morning peak OD demands in the network are mainly distributed in the range of 0.2–0.6, and different OD pairs have different fluctuations, and the degree of demand fluctuation decreases as the mean increases; 2) the probability distribution types of OD demands based on statistical characteristics are heterogeneous; and 3) the optimal distribution type of OD demands is Poisson, Lognormal/Gamma, and Normal for OD pairs characterized by a small mean and right-skewness, a small mean and skewness close to 0, and a large mean, respectively. In contrast to the simple average-based data processing of OD passenger demand in metro networks, this paper presents a new perspective of mining long-term continuous data to understand the inherent stochasticity of OD passenger demands. The results can provide more realistic and practical inputs and assumptions for theoretical research on stochastic OD demands in metro networks.

Determining optimal location and size of PEV fast-charging stations in coupled transportation and power distribution networks considering power loss and traffic congestion

The placement and sizing of plug-in electric vehicle fast-charging stations (PEVF-CS) can significantly influence traffic flow in urban transportation networks. Consequently, suboptimal choices regarding the location and size of PEVF-CSs may lead to increasing travel time and traffic congestion in transportation networks and deterioration of the power quality indexes in power distribution networks. Also, each PEVF-CS is equipped with power electronic converters that can be used as power line conditioners and active filters to compensate for the reactive power and current harmonic components due to nonlinear loads and reduce the power loss. Thus, PEVF-CSs can improve the voltage profile, decrease voltage THD, and reduce the power loss in power distribution networks. Accordingly, this paper develops a mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP) to determine the optimal locations and sizes of PEVF-CSs. In addition, the proposed model considers traffic congestion and power quality in the coupled transportation and power distribution networks. The model considers various load profiles and origin-destination demands to address the different operational aspects of transportation and power distribution networks. The main features of the proposed model are 1- road congestion reduction, 2- traveling time reduction, 3- power loss reduction, and 4- power quality improvement. The proposed model is implemented using GAMS software and applied to different-scale test systems in different scenarios. The results show that the proposed method decreases traffic congestion and improves power quality.

Short-term origin-destination demand forecasting in rail transit systems: parallel model architecture and gravity approach

Short-term origin-destination demand forecasting in rail transit systems: parallel model architecture and gravity approach

Dynamic origin-destination matrix estimation for networks operating under free-flow conditions using macroscopic flow dynamics

The origin-destination (OD) matrix is a crucial requirement for efficient transportation planning, however its estimation still remains one of the most challenging tasks in transportation. This paper proposes a novel methodology for the estimation of dynamic OD matrices. The proposed methodology integrates disaggregated measurements from stationary sensors, e.g. loop detectors, with a macroscopic model that associates OD demands with Traffic counts on specific network links. We investigate networks that operate under free-flow conditions, hence the dynamic OD matrix estimation problem is formulated as a linear mathematical program. Finally, we reformulate the problem to obtain a computationally cheap quadratic programming problem that allows real-time estimation of OD matrices within the time-window under study. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology through a literature network, showcasing its ability to accurately capture travel patterns in a computationally efficient manner, allowing informed decision-making processes in transportation planning and management.

A two-stage stochastic programming approach for dynamic OD estimation using LBSN data

Estimating origin–destination (OD) demand is essential for urban transport management and traffic control systems. With the ubiquity of smartphones, location based social networks (LBSN) data has emerged as a new rich data source with broad urban spatial and temporal coverage highly suitable for OD estimation. Its nature of confirmed trip purpose (activity) and activity chain host makes it more advantageous than other data (e.g., household travel surveys and traffic network detection). On the other hand, LBSN data is a more direct and accurate representation of demand patterns and can remove the significant burden of developing traffic models and estimating simulation-based objective functions. However, thus far, most LBSN-based estimation models only focus on static (day-level) OD estimation, making less use of those characteristics. To this end, this paper establishes a two-stage stochastic programming (TSSP) framework integrating the activity chains to model activity-level dynamic mobility flows using LBSN data. The first-stage model aims to minimize the errors introduced by the inter-zone OD flows alongside the expected errors of the check-in patterns. The second-stage model attempts to minimize the errors produced by the considered check-in pattern scenarios. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is used to generate plausible check-in scenarios. A generalized Benders decomposition (GBD) algorithm is presented to solve the two-stage stochastic programming model. We conduct the experiments on the case study of Tokyo, Japan, under the employment of the generalized least squares (GLS) estimator. The results show that algorithm convergence can be guaranteed within several iterations. The approach can provide satisfactory estimations of check-in patterns, zonal production and attraction, and OD flows. Furthermore, multiple objective function states are tested for evaluating the completeness of the proposed framework and exploring its potential for simplification and extension. Incorporating specific penalty terms into the objective function also provides a way to verify the reliability of the two-stage structure and validate the effectiveness of the model. Finally, we discuss the model enhancement from the perspectives of online OD estimation by integrating with LBSN simulations, network-wide OD extrapolation using appropriate scaling methods, and removing the user-side data requirement by leveraging activity chain modeling. The proposed framework provides a novel and effective approach to OD demand estimation using LBSN data.