Developing a novel approach in estimating urban commute traffic by integrating community detection and hypergraph representation learning

Abstract

The efficiency of urban traffic management and congestion alleviation relies heavily on accurate forecasting of Origin-Destination (O-D) demand matrices. Existing models primarily focus on estimating O-D demand for various travel purposes throughout the day, which is characterised by its pulsating nature. However, these models often compromise the precision of peak-hour forecasts, leading to unreliable dynamic traffic control and challenges in effectively reducing peak-hour congestion. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes a novel method for predicting commuting O-D demand matrices. Our method employs community detection algorithms on road networks to precisely partition commute O-D regions, incorporating Points of Interest (POIs). We also present a spatio-temporal dynamic weighted hypergraph model that leverages these partitioned regions, time characteristics from observed O-D trips, and meteorological data to improve forecasting. Comparative analyses with contemporary models and ablation studies indicate our method significantly enhances prediction accuracy, by approximately 5%. These findings imply that the proposed method more effectively encompasses the varied characteristics of commuting during peak hours, thereby providing more accurate demand matrices for urban traffic management.