Ordinal Probability Research Articles

Optimal binary prefix-condition codes with ordinal probabilities

Probability estimates for letters in a finite alphabet are derived in order to apply the Huffman algorithm to determine an optimal binary prefix-condition code. The estimates maximize the entropy subject to constraints specifying second-level orderings of the letters' likelihoods. These are compared to estimates obtained from another probability estimation technique described in the decision theory literature using the English alphabet as an example. © 1990 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Robust interactive decision‐analysis (RID): Behavioral results and implications

AbstractWe have proposed a novel interactive procedure for performing decision analysis, called Robust Interactive Decision Analysis (RID), which permits a decision maker (DM) to voluntarily and interactively express strong (viz, sure) binary preferences for actions, partial decision functions, and full decision functions, and only imprecise probability and utility function assessments. These serve as INPUTS TO operators to prune the state probability space and decision space until an optimal choice strategy is obtained. The viability of the RID approach depends on a DM's ability to provide such information consistently and meaningfully. On a limited scale we experimentally investigate the behavioral implications of the RID method in order to ascertain its potential operational feasibility and viability. More specifically, we examine whether a DM can (1) express strong preferences between pairs of vectors of unconditional and conditional payoffs or utilities consistently; (2) provide imprecise (ordinal and interval) state probabilities that are individually as well as mutually consistent with the state probabilities imputed from the expressed strong preferences. The results show that a DM can provide strong individually and mutually consistent preference and ordinal probability information. Moreover, most individuals also appear to be able to provide interval probabilities that are individually and mutually consistent with their strong preference inputs. However, the several violations observed, our small sample size, and the limited scope of our investigation suggest that further experimentation is needed to determine whether and/or how such inputs should be elicited. Overall, the results indicate that the RID method is behaviorally viable.

Group decision making under uncertainty a note on the aggregation of “ordinal probabilities”

This paper is a first attempt to study the problem of aggregation of individual ordinal probabilistic beliefs in an Arrowian framework. We exhibit some properties an aggregation rule must fulfil; in particular we prove the existence of a “quasi-dictator”.

Analysis of Ordinal Categorical Data.

Preface. 1. Introduction. 1.1. Ordinal Categorical Scales. 1.2. Advantages of Using Ordinal Methods. 1.3. Ordinal Modeling Versus Ordinary Regession Analysis. 1.4. Organization of This Book. 2. Ordinal Probabilities, Scores, and Odds Ratios. 2.1. Probabilities and Scores for an Ordered Categorical Scale. 2.2. Ordinal Odds Ratios for Contingency Tables. 2.3. Confidence Intervals for Ordinal Association Measures. 2.4. Conditional Association in Three-Way Tables. 2.5. Category Choice for Ordinal Variables. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 3. Logistic Regression Models Using Cumulative Logits. 3.1. Types of Logits for An Ordinal Response. 3.2. Cumulative Logit Models. 3.3. Proportional Odds Models: Properties and Interpretations. 3.4. Fitting and Inference for Cumulative Logit Models. 3.5. Checking Cumulative Logit Models. 3.6. Cumulative Logit Models Without Proportional Odds. 3.7. Connections with Nonparametric Rank Methods. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 4. Other Ordinal Logistic Regression Models. 4.1. Adjacent-Categories Logit Models. 4.2. Continuation-Ratio Logit Models. 4.3. Stereotype Model: Multiplicative Paired-Category Logits. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 5. Other Ordinal Multinomial Response Models. 5.1. Cumulative Link Models. 5.2. Cumulative Probit Models. 5.3. Cumulative Log-Log Links: Proportional Hazards Modeling. 5.4. Modeling Location and Dispersion Effects. 5.5. Ordinal ROC Curve Estimation. 5.6. Mean Response Models. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 6. Modeling Ordinal Association Structure. 6.1. Ordinary Loglinear Modeling. 6.2. Loglinear Model of Linear-by-Linear Association. 6.3. Row or Column Effects Association Models. 6.4. Association Models for Multiway Tables. 6.5. Multiplicative Association and Correlation Models. 6.6. Modeling Global Odds Ratios and Other Associations. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 7. Non-Model-Based Analysis of Ordinal Association. 7.1. Concordance and Discordance Measures of Association. 7.2. Correlation Measures for Contingency Tables. 7.3. Non-Model-Based Inference for Ordinal Association Measures. 7.4. Comparing Singly Ordered Multinomials. 7.5. Order-Restricted Inference with Inequality Constraints. 7.6. Small-Sample Ordinal Tests of Independence. 7.7. Other Rank-Based Statistical Methods for Ordered Categories. Appendix: Standard Errors for Ordinal Measures. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 8. Matched-Pairs Data with Ordered Categories. 8.1. Comparing Marginal Distributions for Matched Pairs. 8.2. Models Comparing Matched Marginal Distributions. 8.3. Models for The Joint Distribution in A Square Table. 8.4. Comparing Marginal Distributions for Matched Sets. 8.5. Analyzing Rater Agreement on an Ordinal Scale. 8.6. Modeling Ordinal Paired Preferences. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 9. Clustered Ordinal Responses: Marginal Models. 9.1. Marginal Ordinal Modeling with Explanatory Variables. 9.2. Marginal Ordinal Modeling: GEE Methods. 9.3. Transitional Ordinal Modeling, Given the Past. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 10. Clustered Ordinal Responses: Random Effects Models. 10.1. Ordinal Generalized Linear Mixed Models. 10.2. Examples of Ordinal Random Intercept Models. 10.3. Models with Multiple Random Effects. 10.4. Multilevel (Hierarchical) Ordinal Models. 10.5. Comparing Random Effects Models and Marginal Models. Chapter Notes. Exercises. 11. Bayesian Inference for Ordinal Response Data. 11.1. Bayesian Approach to Statistical Inference. 11.2. Estimating Multinomial Parameters. 11.3. Bayesian Ordinal Regression Modeling. 11.4. Bayesian Ordinal Association Modeling. 11.5. Bayesian Ordinal Multivariate Regression Modeling. 11.6. Bayesian Versus Frequentist Approaches to Analyzing Ordinal Data. Chapter Notes. Exercises. Appendix Software for Analyzing Ordinal Categorical Data. Bibliography. Example Index. Subject Index.