Order Flow Imbalance Research Articles

Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve

We examine the role of price discovery in the U.S. Treasury market through the empirical relationship between orderflow, liquidity and the yield curve. We find that orderflow imbalances (excess buying or selling pressure) can account for as much as 26 percent of the day-to-day variation in yields on days without major macroeconomic announcements. The effect of orderflow on yields is permanent and strongest when liquidity is low. All of the evidence points toward an important role of price discovery in understanding the behavior of the yield curve.

Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve

ABSTRACTWe examine the role of price discovery in the U.S. Treasury market through the empirical relationship between orderflow, liquidity, and the yield curve. We find that orderflow imbalances (excess buying or selling pressure) account for up to 26% of the day‐to‐day variation in yields on days without major macroeconomic announcements. The effect of orderflow on yields is permanent and strongest when liquidity is low. All of the evidence points toward an important role of price discovery in understanding the behavior of the yield curve.

The euro as an international currency: explaining puzzling first evidence from the foreign exchange markets

This paper presents evidence that the bid-ask spreads in euro rates increased relative to the corresponding bid-ask spreads in the German mark (DM) prior to the creation of the currency union. This comes with a decrease in transaction volume in the euro rates relative to the previous DM rates. The starkest example is the DM(euro)/yen rate in which the spread has risen by almost two-thirds while the volume decreased by more than one third. This outcome is surprising because the common currency concentrated market liquidity in fewer external euro rates and higher volume tends to be associated with lower spreads. We propose a microstructure explanation based on a change in the information environment of the FX market. The elimination of many cross currency pairs increased the market transparency for order flow imbalances in the dealership market. It is argued that higher market transparency adversely affects the inventory risk sharing efficiency of the dealership market and induces the observed euro spread increase and transaction volume shortfall.

The Euro as an International Currency: Explaining Puzzling First Evidence

This paper presents evidence that the bid-ask spreads in euro rates increased relative to the corresponding bid-ask spreads in the German mark (DM) prior to the creation of the currency union. This comes with a decrease in transaction volume in the euro rates relative to the previous DM rates. The starkest example is the DM(euro)/yen rate in which the spread has risen by almost two-thirds while the volume has almost halved. This outcome is surprising because the common currency concentrated market liquidity in fewer external euro rates and higher volume tends to be associated with lower spreads. We propose a microstructure explanation based on a change in the information environment of the FX market. The elimination of many cross currency pairs increased the market transparency for order flow imbalances in the dealership market. It is argued that higher market transparency adversely affects the inventory risk sharing efficiency of the dealership market and induces the observed euro spread increase and transaction volume shortfall.

A Regime-Level Empirical Model of the Specialist Quote Revision Process

NYSE trading is a continuous auction process distinguished by order flow imbalances and non-coincident revision of the bid and the ask. To deal with the aggregation problem presented by non-coincident revision of the quotes, we propose a regime-level empirical model and use it to test the Brock and Kleidon queuing theory of a continuous auction. Using transactions data for IBM for calendar year 1988, Harris, McInish, and Chakravarity (1995) performed a Hausman-type specification test that confirmed the exogeneity of order flow volumes at the bid and the ask. Extending their work, this paper estimates two simultaneous autoregressive ask and bid equations for 50 randomly selected stocks and contrasts thinly traded and volatile stocks. The results support Brock and Kleidon's distinguishing implication—namely, exogenous increases in trading volume raise the ask and lower the bid. Although some queuing system characteristics prove endogenous in thinly traded stocks and in especially volatile stocks, exogenous order flow volume continues to increase spreads across the 50 stock sample. The paper draws conclusions about the appropriate specification of endogeneity, cross-equation disturbances from the bid to the ask, and cross-equation queuing information flows.

An Analysis of Seasoned Equity Offerings by Equity REITs, 1991 to 1995

This article examines the valuation effect around the filing and offer dates of seasoned equity offerings by Equity REITs over the period 1991 to 1995. Based on a much larger sample, our finding of a significantly negative reaction to filing announcements corroborates the evidence in Howe and Shilling (1988). Our analyses indicate that the valuation effect is impacted more by the information content of the filing than any tax-based explanations. We find a significantly negative valuation effect on the offer day as well. The effect persists even after adjustment of returns by the bid-ask bounce induced by excessive selling of shares in the secondary market by institutional investors to take advantage of offer price discounts. While we attribute the result partly to order flow imbalance around the offer day, this finding is inconsistent with extant literature merits and further investigation.

On the Convergence of Distributions of Random Sums ofIndependent Random Variables to Stable Laws

Previous article Next article On the Convergence of Distributions of Random Sums ofIndependent Random Variables to Stable LawsV. Yu. KorolevV. Yu. Korolevhttps://doi.org/10.1137/S0040585X97976544PDFBibTexSections ToolsAdd to favoritesExport CitationTrack CitationsEmail SectionsAboutAbstractThe paper gives the necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence of distributions of random sums of independent random variables to strictly stable laws.[1] Google Scholar[2] V. Yu. Korolev, Convergence of random sequences with independent random indices, Theory Probab. Appl., 39 (1994), pp. 282–297. tba TPRBAU 0040-585X Theor. Probab. Appl. LinkGoogle Scholar[3] Google ScholarKeywordsstable lawsLindeberg conditionrandom sums Previous article Next article FiguresRelatedReferencesCited byDetails Multivariate Scale-Mixed Stable Distributions and Related Limit Theorems8 May 2020 | Mathematics, Vol. 8, No. 5 Cross Ref From Asymptotic Normality to Heavy-Tailedness via Limit Theorems for Random Sums and Statistics with Random Sample Sizes15 April 2020 Cross Ref Some functional limit theorems for compound Cox processes Cross Ref Application of Compound Cox Processes In Modeling Order Flows with Non-Homogeneous IntensitiesSSRN Electronic Journal Cross Ref Modeling High-Frequency Order Flow Imbalance by Functional Limit Theorems for Two-Sided Risk ProcessesSSRN Electronic Journal Cross Ref On Convergence of Distributions of Compound Cox Processes to Stable LawsV. Yu. Korolev25 July 2006 | Theory of Probability & Its Applications, Vol. 43, No. 4AbstractPDF (119 KB) Volume 42, Issue 4| 1998Theory of Probability & Its Applications History Published online:17 February 2012 InformationCopyright © 1998 Society for Industrial and Applied MathematicsKeywordsstable lawsLindeberg conditionrandom sumsPDF Download Article & Publication DataArticle DOI:10.1137/S0040585X97976544Article page range:pp. 695-696ISSN (print):0040-585XISSN (online):1095-7219Publisher:Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

The intraday speed of stock price adjustment to major dividend changes: Bid−ask bounce and order flow imbalances

This paper examines the intraday stock price reaction to substantial shifts in dividend policy. The results indicate the price reaction to be slower than that previously found by Patell and Wolfson (1984) and closer to that found with earnings announcements by Woodruff and Senchack (1988). Possible order flow imbalances are examined by looking at the proximity of transaction prices to contemporaneous bid and ask quotes. While order flow imbalances are evident for bad news announcements, this is not the case for the dividend increase sample. This is interpreted as evidence that the price reaction to major dividend increases are in general anticipated. Fifteen minute holding period returns are computed to measure the movement of equilibrium prices during the announcement period. Results show a rapid adjustment of prices to positive announcements with adjustment to negative announcements taking up to 75 minutes. Finally, fifteen minute lagged bid—ask returns are calculated to determine whether an investor could respond to the announcement and earn positive returns. These results are found to be dependent on the transaction cost assumptions being made.

An Investigation of Market Microstructure Impacts on Event Study Returns

ABSTRACTWe investigate the importance of bid‐ask spread‐induced biases on event date returns as exemplified by seasoned equity offerings by NYSE listed firms. We document significant negative return biases on the offering day which explain a large portion of the negative event date return documented in the literature. Buy‐sell order flow imbalance is prominent around the offering and induces a relatively large spread bias. If order imbalances are suspected, the researcher can use returns calculated from the midpoint of the closing bid and ask quotes instead of returns calculated from closing transaction prices to avoid this return bias.

An Investigation of Market Microstructure Impacts on Event Study Returns

We investigate the importance of bid-ask spread induced biases on event date returns as exemplified by seasoned equity offerings by NYSE listed firms. We document significant negative return biases on the offering day which explain a large portion of the negative event date return documented in the literature. Buy/sell order flow imbalance is prominent around the offering and induces a relatively large spread bias. If order imbalances are suspected, the researcher can use returns calculated from the midpoint of the closing bid and ask quotes, instead of returns calculated from closing transaction prices, to avoid this return bias.