Satellite Mission Research Articles

Peak Flow Event Durations in the Mississippi River Basin and Implications for Temporal Sampling of Rivers

AbstractThe impact of an episodic river flood is intimately linked to its duration. Yet it is still unclear how often should a river be observed to accurately determine the occurrence and duration of extreme events. Here we assess flow statistics along with peak flow event detection and duration as a function of the discharge sampling period for large tributaries of the Mississippi basin using hourly gages over 2010–2022. Median event durations above high quantiles spatially vary from around 2 days upstream to 30 days downstream. Discharge mean, standard deviation, and quantiles can all be estimated within 2.5% error for sampling periods up to 8 days. A minimum temporal sampling 4× (2×) finer than peak flow event median duration is required to detect 95 ± 3% (85 ± 5%) of events and to estimate their duration within 90 ± 5% (75 ± 10%) median accuracy. Our findings have direct implications for future satellite missions concerned with capturing flood events.

Enabling efficient satellite mission design with rule-based collision avoidance

The growing number of operational spacecraft in Earth's orbit entails an increasing operational effort for collision avoidance (COLA), particularly regarding the coordination of evasive measures. To reduce the associated workload, COLA operations should already be considered in the early planning phases of space missions. The Mission Analysis Software (MAS) is a web-based application developed within the ESA-funded CASCADE (Collision avoidance, satellite coordination assessment demonstration environment) project by OKAPI:Orbits and TU Darmstadt for this purpose. The software follows a data-driven approach to offer satellite operators, mission designers, service providers, agencies, and authorities two services: conjunction assessment and rule analysis. The conjunction assessment provides an estimation of the number and type of conjunctions to be expected on the targeted orbit and identifies frequently conjuncting parties for the current population of active satellites as well as for conceivable future scenarios. The rule analysis follows a rule-based approach to coordinate COLA between individual operators, allowing users to build custom hierarchical rule sets from pre-defined rule building blocks to achieve a desired split of effort between the conjunction parties. The MAS enables the assessment of the operational consequences for a chosen rule set, empowering users to reach bilateral agreements with identified frequently conjuncting parties to determine the obligation to take evasive measures for future conjunctions. The approach of the MAS allows for the pre-emptive reduction of the expected number of conjunctions enabling operators to optimize orbit parameters within their mission constraints as well as the automatization of COLA coordination during operations. Through this, the MAS optimizes propellant needs, mission time, and required workforce associated with COLA for space missions.This paper presents the MAS, showcasing the key features and use cases that have been developed closely with stakeholders and the European Space Agency. Furthermore, the data-based simulation approach of the MAS will be explained, covering the data sources and design choices for the conjunction detection and propagation module. The paper also presents the results of a preliminary rule analysis conducted for the population of active satellites in low Earth orbit as of April 2023. As an intermediate result of an on-going research activity involving the authoring entities, a major goal of this paper is to engage with satellite operators, mission designers, service providers, agencies, and authorities in order to tailor the results of the activity to their actual needs.

Application of the Bagged Trees Technique on Retrieving the Nighttime Ionospheric Peak Density From OI‐135.6 nm Airglow

AbstractThe NASA global‐scale observations of the limb and disk (GOLD) mission is a measurement opportunity to scan the far ultraviolet airglow at ∼134–162 nm over the American Hemisphere since October 2018. The FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 (F7/C2) satellite mission has provided thousands of daily radio occultation soundings in the low‐ and mid‐latitude regions since July 2019. The nighttime OI–135.6 nm emission is mainly through radiative recombination, and the radiance is used to derive the peak electron density. Comparison with corresponding F7/C2 observations demonstrates good correlation in low‐latitudes, while is overestimated near mid‐latitudes in winter, induced by the photoelectrons emanating from magnetically conjugate Hemisphere. The machine learning technique Bagged Trees is implemented to develop an intensity to peak density model training from GOLD and F7/C2 observations. The validation demonstrates that Bagged Trees peak‐density has less influence from conjugate photoelectrons and indicates the power of machine learning techniques for geophysics data processing.

Evaluation of a 4DVAR Assimilation System in the California Current at the SWOT Calibration/Validation Site

Abstract This study evaluates the feasibility of applying the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) data assimilation (DA) framework to a submesoscale-resolving model [Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm), at 1-km grid resolution]. This is in preparation for future studies to understand and assimilate the novel swath measurements of sea surface height from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission. The model domain is centered at the SWOT calibration/validation (CalVal) site, located 300 km offshore of Monterey Bay, California. We assimilate vertical profiles of temperature and salinity from a linear array of three SWOT prelaunch CalVal moorings, between September and December 2019. Two model solutions are analyzed: 1) a nonassimilating forward simulation termed “first-guess” and 2) an optimized solution that assimilates the in situ observations. Both runs are nested within the global 1/12° Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model that uses Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM/NCODA) analysis. We evaluate the performance by comparing the two model solutions against assimilated and withheld in situ observations. We show that by assimilating hydrographic data, the model performance over the first-guess solution is improved with an error-to-observation reduction of 30%–45% for temperature, 14%–41% for salinity, and 44%–56% for steric height. Over the study period, the average steric height error at the three assimilated moorings was 1.27 cm for the optimized solution versus 2.6 cm for the first-guess solution. A comparison to withheld glider observations shows that the optimized solution outperforms the first-guess solution with an error-to-observation reduction of approximately 38% in steric height (1.5 versus 2.4 cm). This study indicates, for the first time, that the MITgcm–ECCO framework can be successfully applied to the reconstruction of submesoscale ocean variability, via the nesting of a high-resolution regional domain into a global outer domain.

LiteBIRD science goals and forecasts. A case study of the origin of primordial gravitational waves using large-scale CMB polarization

We study the possibility of using the LiteBIRD satellite B-mode survey to constrain models of inflation producing specific features in CMB angular power spectra. We explore a particular model example, i.e. spectator axion-SU(2) gauge field inflation. This model can source parity-violating gravitational waves from the amplification of gauge field fluctuations driven by a pseudoscalar “axionlike” field, rolling for a few e-folds during inflation. The sourced gravitational waves can exceed the vacuum contribution at reionization bump scales by about an order of magnitude and can be comparable to the vacuum contribution at recombination bump scales. We argue that a satellite mission with full sky coverage and access to the reionization bump scales is necessary to understand the origin of the primordial gravitational wave signal and distinguish among two production mechanisms: quantum vacuum fluctuations of spacetime and matter sources during inflation. We present the expected constraints on model parameters from LiteBIRD satellite simulations, which complement and expand previous studies in the literature. We find that LiteBIRD will be able to exclude with high significance standard single-field slow-roll models, such as the Starobinsky model, if the true model is the axion-SU(2) model with a feature at CMB scales. We further investigate the possibility of using the parity-violating signature of the model, such as the TB and EB angular power spectra, to disentangle it from the standard single-field slow-roll scenario. We find that most of the discriminating power of LiteBIRD will reside in BB angular power spectra rather than in TB and EB correlations.

Evaluating the Use of Seasonal Surface Displacements and Time‐Variable Gravity to Constrain the Interior of Mars

AbstractThe mass transport of volatiles on Mars represents a seasonally changing load on the surface of the planet. Like on Earth, as mass is redistributed across the planet, the surface responds in a complex manner becoming displaced downwards or upwards. The magnitude and extent of displacement depend on the properties of the load and mechanical properties of the planetary interior. Based on new estimates of the height variation of the seasonal polar caps (SPCs), we predict local surface displacements of up to tens of millimeters with a strong degree 1 signal throughout the Martian year. The long‐wavelength portion of the displacement is potentially observable, with a magnitude of a few millimeters, located away from the SPC where one could realistically measure it with a landed or orbital mission. We also model the direct contribution of this process to observable time variable gravity, where we find the zonal coefficients to be in line with previous measurements, although with a smaller magnitude. Future measurements of this displacement could be used to help elucidate the composition of the interior of Mars using this process as a probe into the Martian interior. Furthermore, more refined measurements of time‐variable gravity would be a powerful tool in constraining the pole‐to‐pole volatile cycle present on Mars.

On Lyapunov stability of artificial potential function-based low-thrust constellation reconfiguration control

The configuration control of constellations which consist of numerous satellites presents significant challenges. Such space systems demand the capability for autonomous reconfiguration to accomplish specific missions. Individual satellites within constellations are primarily equipped with low-thrust systems, rendering traditional impulse control methods for satellite formation and mission planning ineffective. To address this issue, this paper proposes a low-thrust constellations reconfiguration control method utilizing an artificial potential function. Relying exclusively on neighboring state information, satellites can dynamically modulate their control efforts in real-time. The stability of the proposed reconfiguration control method is established under modelable, bounded perturbation using Lyapunov theory. Furthermore, a repulsive potential function is formulated to ensure collision avoidance among satellites. Numerical results indicate that the proposed method is stable, computationally efficient, and guarantees the safe distance during maneuvers. Consequently, this method is ideally suited for reconfiguration tasks across a spectrum of large space systems, including mega-constellations.

Impact of beam far side-lobe knowledge in the presence of foregrounds for LiteBIRD

We present a study of the impact of a beam far side-lobe lack of knowledge on the measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background B-mode signal at large scale. Beam far side-lobes induce a mismatch in the transfer function of Galactic foregrounds between the dipole and higher multipoles which degrads the performances of component separation methods. This leads to foreground residuals in the CMB map. It is expected to be one of the main source of systematic effects in future CMB polarization observations. Thus, it becomes crucial for all-sky survey missions to take into account the interplays between beam systematic effects and all the data analysis steps. LiteBIRD is the ISAS/JAXA second strategic large-class satellite mission and is dedicated to target the measurement of CMB primordial B modes by reaching a sensitivity on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r of σ(r) ≤ 10-3 assuming r = 0. The primary goal of this paper is to provide the methodology and develop the framework to carry out the end-to-end study of beam far side-lobe effects for a space-borne CMB experiment. We introduce uncertainties in the beam model, and propagate the beam effects through all the steps of the analysis pipeline, most importantly including component separation, up to the cosmological results in the form of a bias δr. As a demonstration of our framework, we derive requirements on the calibration and modeling for the LiteBIRD's beams under given assumptions on design, simulation, component separation method and allocated error budget. In particular, we assume a parametric method of component separation with no mitigation of the far side-lobes effect at any stage of the analysis pipeline. We show that δr is mostly due to the integrated fractional power difference between the estimated beams and the true beams in the far side-lobes region, with little dependence on the actual shape of the beams, for low enough δr. Under our set of assumptions, in particular considering the specific foreground cleaning method we used, we find that the integrated fractional power in the far side-lobes should be known at the level of ∼ 10-4, to achieve the required limit on the bias δr < 1.9 × 10-5. The framework and tools developed for this study can be easily adapted to provide requirements under different design, data analysis frameworks and for other future space-borne experiments, such as PICO or CMB-Bharat. We further discuss the limitations of this framework and potential extensions to circumvent them.

THE THREE HUNDRED: Contrasting cluster galaxy density in hydrodynamical and dark matter simulations

Cluster number counts at visible and IR wavelengths will be a key cosmological probe in the next decade thanks to the Euclid satellite mission. For this purpose, the performance of cluster detection algorithms, which at these wavelengths are sensitive to the spatial distributions of the cluster galaxy members and their luminosity functions, need to be accurately characterized. Using THE THREE HUNDRED hydrodynamical and dark-matter-only simulations, we studied a complete sample of massive clusters beyond 7 (5) × 1014 M⊙ at redshift 0 (1) on a (1.48 Gpc)3 volume. We find that the mass resolution of the current hydrodynamical simulations (1.5 × 109 M⊙) is not enough to characterize the luminosity function of the sample in the perspective of Euclid data. Nevertheless, these simulations are still useful to characterize the spatial distribution of the cluster substructures assuming a common relative mass threshold for the different flavours and resolutions. By comparing with the dark-matter-only version of these simulations, we demonstrate that baryonic physics preserves significantly low-mass subhalos (galaxies), as has also been observed in previous studies with less statistics. Furthermore, by comparing the hydro simulations with higher resolution dark-matter-only simulations of the same objects and taking the same limit in subhalo mass, we find galaxy density profiles that are significantly more cuspy towards the centre of the clusters, where the low-mass substructures tend to concentrate. We conclude that using a dark-matter-only simulation may lead to some biases on the spatial distribution and density of galaxy cluster members. Based on the preliminary analysis of few high-resolution hydro simulations we conclude that a mass resolution of 1.8 × 108h−1 M⊙ will be needed for THE THREE HUNDRED simulations to approach the expected magnitude limits for the Euclid survey. These simulations are currently under way.

Prospects of GENESIS and Galileo joint orbit and clock determination

The European Space Agency (ESA) is preparing a satellite mission called GENESIS to be launched in 2027 as part of the FutureNAV program. GENESIS co-locates, for the first time, all four space geodetic techniques on one satellite platform. The main objectives of the mission are the realization of the International Terrestrial Reference Frames and the mitigation of biases in geodetic measurements; however, GENESIS will remarkably contribute to the determination of the geodetic parameters. The precise GENESIS orbits will be determined through satellite-to-satellite tracking, employing two GNSS antennas to observe GPS and Galileo satellites in both nadir and zenith directions. In this research, we show results from simulations of GENESIS and Galileo-like constellations with joint orbit and clock determination. We assess the orbit quality of GENESIS based on nadir-only, zenith-only, and combined nadir–zenith GNSS observations. The results prove that GENESIS and Galileo joint orbit and clock determination substantially improves Galileo orbits, satellite clocks, and even ground-based clocks of GNSS receivers tracking Galileo satellites. Although zenith and nadir GNSS antennas favor different orbital planes in terms of the number of collected observations, the mean results for each Galileo orbital plane are improved to a similar extent. The 3D orbit error of Galileo is improved from 27 mm (Galileo-only), 23 mm (Galileo + zenith), 16 mm (Galileo + nadir), to 14 mm (Galileo + zenith + nadir GENESIS observations), i.e., almost by a factor of two in the joint GENESIS + Galileo orbit and clock solutions.

An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations

AbstractThe prediction of post‐sunset equatorial plasma depletions (EPDs), often called ionospheric plasma bubbles, has remained a challenge for decades. In this study, we introduce the Ionospheric Bubble Probability (IBP) model, an empirical model to predict the occurrence probability of EPDs derived from 9 years of CHAMP and 9 years of Swarm magnetic field measurements. The model predicts the occurrence probability of EPDs for a given longitude, day of year, local time and solar activity, for the altitude range of about 350–510 km, and low geographic latitudes of ±45°. IBP has been found to successfully reconstruct the distribution of EPDs as reported in previous studies from independent data. IBP has been further evaluated using 1‐year of untrained data of the Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI). IBI is a Level 2 product of the Swarm satellite mission used for EPD identification. The relative operating characteristics (ROC) curve shows positive excursion above the no‐skill line with Hanssen and Kuiper's Discriminant (H&amp;KSS) score of 0.52, 0.51, and 0.55 at threshold model output of 0.16 for Swarm A, B, and C satellites. Additionally, the reliability plots show proximity to the diagonal line with a decent Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.249, 0.210, and 0.267 for Swarm A, B, and C respectively at 15% climatological occurrence rate. These tests indicate that the model performs significantly better than a no‐skill forecast. The IBP model offers compelling glimpses into the future of EPD forecasting, thus demonstrating its potential to reliably predict EPD occurrences. The IBP model is publicly available.

Development of WACCM With the Non‐Hydrostatic MPAS‐A Dynamical Core

AbstractThe non‐hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A) dynamical core has recently been adapted for the Specified Chemistry Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SC‐WACCM). In this study, the mean zonal wind and temperature climatology from SC‐WACCM/MPAS‐A is compared with the results from SC‐WACCM using the finite volume and spectral element dynamical cores, as well as the zonal wind and temperature climatology of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite mission and SABER. The simulations have been performed at horizontal resolutions of ∼100 km. Generally a good agreement is seen between the results from the three dynamical cores, which verifies that the new dynamical core is working with WACCM.

Euclid preparation. XLIV. Modelling spectroscopic clustering on mildly nonlinear scales in beyond-LCDM models

The space satellite mission will measure the large-scale clustering of galaxies at an unprecedented precision, providing a unique probe of modifications to the Lambda CDM model. We investigated the approximations needed to efficiently predict the large-scale clustering of matter and dark matter halos in the context of modified gravity and exotic dark energy scenarios. We examined the normal branch of the Dvali--Gabadadze--Porrati model, the Hu--Sawicki $f(R)$ model, a slowly evolving dark energy model, an interacting dark energy model, and massive neutrinos. For each, we tested approximations for the perturbative kernel calculations, including the omission of screening terms and the use of perturbative kernels based on the Einstein--de Sitter universe; we explored different infrared-resummation schemes, tracer bias models and a linear treatment of massive neutrinos; we investigated various approaches for dealing with redshift-space distortions and modelling the mildly nonlinear scales, namely the Taruya--Nishimishi--Saito prescription and the effective field theory of large-scale structure. This work provides a first validation of the various codes being considered by for the spectroscopic clustering probe in beyond-Lambda CDM scenarios. We calculated and compared the $ statistic to assess the different modelling choices. This was done by fitting the spectroscopic clustering predictions to measurements from numerical simulations and perturbation theory-based mock data. We compared the behaviour of this statistic in the beyond-Lambda CDM cases, as a function of the maximum scale included in the fit, to the baseline Lambda CDM case. We find that the Einstein--de Sitter approximation without screening is surprisingly accurate for the modified gravity cases when comparing to the halo clustering monopole and quadrupole obtained from simulations and mock data. Further, we find the same goodness-of-fit for both cases -- the one including and the one omitting non-standard physics in the predictions. Our results suggest that the inclusion of multiple redshift bins, higher-order multipoles, higher-order clustering statistics (such as the bispectrum), and photometric probes such as weak lensing, will be essential to extract information on massive neutrinos, modified gravity and dark energy. Additionally, we show that the three codes used in our analysis, namely PBJ Pybird and MG-Copter exhibit sub-percent agreement for $k Mpc $ across all the models. This consistency underscores their value as reliable tools.

Primary Drivers of the Recent Changes Observed in Global Ocean Circulation Patterns in Mozambique

Purpose: The aim of the study was to examine the primary drivers of the recent changes observed in global ocean circulation patterns in Mozambique Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The study revealed that primary drivers of the recent changes observed in global ocean circulation patterns are involving a combination of natural variability and anthropogenic influences. Key factors identified include global warming, alterations in wind patterns, sea surface temperature anomalies, and increased freshwater input from melting ice caps and glaciers. These elements interact in intricate ways to influence the dynamics of ocean currents, which are critical for regulating Earth's climate and supporting marine ecosystems. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Bronfenbrenner's Ecological Systems Theory &amp; Abraham Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs may be used to anchor future studies on primary drivers of the recent changes observed in global ocean circulation patterns in Mozambique. Increase investment in global ocean monitoring systems, such as Argo floats, satellite missions, and autonomous underwater vehicles, to collect high-resolution data on temperature, salinity, and currents. This data is crucial for validating models and understanding the current state and trends of ocean circulation. Strengthen international cooperation to address global warming, a primary driver of changes in ocean circulation. This includes adhering to and expanding commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

A new model for plasmapause locations derived from IMAGE RPI and Van Allen probe data

The outer boundary of the plasmasphere, the plasmapause, is characterized by a sharp electron density gradient that changes under varying space weather conditions. We developed a new model, called Neustrelitz/ESOC PlasmaPause Model (NEPPM), for providing plasmapause location in terms of -shell utilizing electron density measurements from the Van Allen probes from 2012 to 2018 and the IMAGE satellite data from 2001 to 2005. Both datasets were preprocessed, and algorithms were developed for automatic detection of plasmapause location. The suggested model provides a simple ellipse-based approach determined by the semi-major axis, the eccentricity, and the orientation angle of the semi-major axis. The modelled varies as a function of the index and magnetic local time . The NEPPM results are compared with the Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM). The plasmapause bulge in the evening hours follows the level of geomagnetic activity. The NEPPM will complete the NPSM (Neustrelitz PlasmaSphere Model), which was derived from dual-frequency GPS measurements on-board the CHAMP satellite mission.

Multi-source connectivity as the driver of solar wind variability in the heliosphere

The ambient solar wind that fills the heliosphere originates from multiple sources in the solar corona and is highly structured. It is often described as high-speed, relatively homogeneous, plasma streams from coronal holes and slow-speed, highly variable, streams whose source regions are under debate. A key goal of ESA/NASA’s Solar Orbiter mission is to identify solar wind sources and understand what drives the complexity seen in the heliosphere. By combining magnetic field modelling and spectroscopic techniques with high-resolution observations and measurements, we show that the solar wind variability detected in situ by Solar Orbiter in March 2022 is driven by spatio-temporal changes in the magnetic connectivity to multiple sources in the solar atmosphere. The magnetic field footpoints connected to the spacecraft moved from the boundaries of a coronal hole to one active region (12961) and then across to another region (12957). This is reflected in the in situ measurements, which show the transition from fast to highly Alfvénic then to slow solar wind that is disrupted by the arrival of a coronal mass ejection. Our results describe solar wind variability at 0.5 au but are applicable to near-Earth observatories.

Advancements in Remote Sensing for Evapotranspiration Estimation: A Comprehensive Review of Temperature-Based Models

Quantifying evapotranspiration (ET) is crucial for a valid understanding of the global water cycle and for the precise management of the resource. However, accurately estimating ET, especially at large scales, has always been a challenge. Over the past five decades, remote sensing has emerged as a cost-effective solution for estimating ET at regional and global scales. Numerous models have been developed, offering valuable insights into ET dynamics, allowing for large-scale, accurate, and continuous monitoring while presenting varying degrees of complexity. They mainly belong to two categories despite the variability of their empirical or physical components: temperature and conductance-based models. This comprehensive review synthesizes the fundamental theories and development history of the most used temperature-based models. It focuses on this specific category to maintain conciseness and prevent extended work. It describes the approaches used and presents the chronology of the modifications made and suggested by researchers. Moreover, it highlights the validation studies and the models’ advantages and drawbacks. The review addresses the long-standing challenge of accurately quantifying evapotranspiration at different scales, offers a retrospective comparative analysis spanning a 15-year period, and supports practitioners in selecting the most appropriate model for a specific set of conditions. Moreover, it discusses advancements in satellite missions, such as the Copernicus Space Component and Landsat Next, and their impact on enhancing ET estimation models.

Uncovering sea level patterns in Caspian Sea altimetry data

ABSTRACT This study introduces a technique to uncover concealed patterns in satellite altimetry data, reflecting sea level variations in inland water bodies. We applied the methodology to the Caspian Sea, using altimetry data from four satellite missions over 27 years (1993–2020): TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason1, Jason2, and Jason3. The approach involves two steps: estimating sea level trends and identifying breakpoints that indicate trend shifts; and leveraging time lags between breakpoints at various locations to classify water drainage areas according to their degree of influence on each period. By revealing concealed patterns in the altimetry data, this technique can provide insights to understand the impacts of global warming and local climate changes on sea level fluctuations in the Caspian Sea. We hope that our study can facilitate subsequent interdisciplinary research on the intricate interplay between climate change and hydrological processes in inland water bodies.

A cost-benefit analysis of WildFireSat, a wildfire monitoring satellite mission for Canada.

In anticipation of growing wildfire management challenges, the Canadian government is investing in WildFireSat, an Earth observation satellite mission designed to collect data in support of Canadian wildfire management. Although costs of the mission can be reasonably estimated, the benefits of such an investment are unknown. Here we forecast the possible benefits of WildFireSat via an avoided cost approach. We consider five socio-economic components: suppression costs (fixed and variable), timber losses, property, asset and infrastructure losses, evacuation costs, and smoke related health costs. Using a Monte Carlo analysis, we evaluated a range of possible changes to these components based on expert opinions. The resulting Net Present Value (NPV) estimates depend on the presumed impact of using WildFireSat decision support data products, with pessimistic and conservative assumptions generating mission costs that typically exceed potential benefits by 1.16 to 1.59 times, while more optimistic assumptions generate benefits in excess of costs by 8.72 to 10.48 times. The analysis here excludes some possibly significant market and non-market impacts expected from WildFireSat due to data limitations; accounting for these additional impacts would likely generate positive NPVs under even cautious impact assumptions.

Reviewing Space-Borne GNSS-Reflectometry for Detecting Freeze/Thaw Conditions of Near-Surface Soils

GNSS-Reflectometry, a technique that harnesses the power of microwave remote sensing, is poised to revolutionize our ability to detect and monitor near-surface soil freeze/thaw processes. This technique’s theoretical underpinnings are deeply rooted in the comprehensive explanation of the Zhang–Zhao dielectric constant model, which provides crucial insights into the behavior of frozen and thawed soils. The model elucidates how the dielectric properties of soil change as it transitions between frozen and thawed states, offering a scientific basis for understanding reflectivity variations. Furthermore, the theoretical framework includes a set of formulas that are instrumental in calculating reflectivity at Lower Right (LR) polarization and in deriving Dual-Polarization Differential Observables (DDMs). These calculations are pivotal for interpreting the signals captured by GNSS-R sensors, allowing for the detection of subtle changes in the soil’s surface conditions. The evolution of GNSS-R as a tool for detecting freeze/thaw phenomena has been substantiated through qualitative analyses involving multiple satellite missions, such as SMAP-R, TDS-1, and CYGNSS. These analyses have provided empirical evidence of the technique’s effectiveness, illustrating its capacity to capture the dynamics of soil freezing and thawing processes. In addition to these qualitative assessments, the application of a discriminant retrieval algorithm using data from CYGNSS and F3E GNOS-R has further solidified the technique’s potential. This algorithm contributes to refining the accuracy of freeze/thaw detection by distinguishing between frozen and thawed soil states with greater precision. The deployment of space-borne GNSS-R for monitoring near-surface freeze/thaw cycles has yielded commendable results, exhibiting robust consistency and delivering relatively precise retrieval outcomes. These achievements stand as testaments to the technique’s viability and its growing significance in the field of remote sensing. However, it is imperative to recognize and actively address certain limitations that have been highlighted in this review. These limitations serve as critical focal points for future research endeavors, directing the efforts toward enhancing the technique’s overall performance and applicability. Addressing these challenges will be essential for leveraging the full potential of GNSS-R to advance our understanding and management of near-surface soil freeze/thaw processes.