Options Market Research Articles

Changes in Effectiveness of Delta Hedging Using Options on the WIG20

Purpose: Based on the research carried out by the author in 2007 and 2015, an increase in the effectiveness of delta hedging with the use of options on the WIG20 was found. The purpose of the study is to compare the results of the 2017–2018 delta hedging effectiveness studies with the results of previous studies, as well as to assess the changes in the effectiveness with an indication of possible causes. Design/methodology/approach: To compare the effectiveness of delta hedging, the estimated Value at Risk was used for unhedged and hedged portfolios in the analyzed periods. The results obtained on the basis of data from the years 2017–2018 were compared with the results for the data from 2007 and 2015. Findings: On the basis of the conducted research, the effectiveness of delta hedging using options on the Polish market can be generally stated, but the durability of the high effectiveness of delta hedging observed in 2015 cannot be stated. In the years 2017–2018, there was a decrease in the effectiveness of delta hedging associated with a significant decrease in liquidity on the option market. The research results highlight the importance of liquidity for the proper option pricing as well as for the possibility of risk reduction. Research limitations/implications: Some difficulty and limitation of the study were quite frequent lack of data regarding the options analyzed in the period 2017–2018. Originality/value: The value of the obtained results is increased by their uniqueness, as changes in the effectiveness of delta hedging on the Polish options market are not discussed in the literature by other authors.

On the RND under Heston's Stochastic Volatility Model

We consider Heston's (1993) stochastic volatility model for valuation of European options to which (semi) closed form solutions are available and are given in terms of characteristic functions. We prove that the class of scale-parameter distributions with mean being the forward spot price satisfies Heston's solution. Thus, we show that any member of this class could be used for the direct risk-neutral valuation of the option price under Heston's SV model. In fact, we also show that any RND with mean being the forward spot price that satisfies Hestons' option valuation solution, must be a member of a scale-family of distributions in that mean. As particular examples, we show that one-parameter versions of the {\it Log-Normal, Inverse-Gaussian, Gamma, Weibull} and the {\it Inverse-Weibull} distributions are all members of this class and thus provide explicit risk-neutral densities (RND) for Heston's pricing model. We demonstrate, via exact calculations and Monte-Carlo simulations, the applicability and suitability of these explicit RNDs using already published Index data with a calibrated Heston model (S&P500, Bakshi, Cao and Chen (1997), and ODAX, Mrazek and Pospisil (2017)), as well as current option market data (AMD).

A Descriptive Study of High-Frequency Trade and Quote Option Data*

Abstract This paper provides a guide to high-frequency option trade and quote data disseminated by the Options Price Reporting Authority (OPRA). We present a comprehensive overview of the U.S. option market, including details on market regulation and the trading processes for all 16 constituent option exchanges. We review the existing literature that utilizes high-frequency options data, summarizes the general structure of the OPRA dataset, and presents a thorough empirical description of the observed option trades and quotes for a selected sample of underlying assets that contains more than 25 billion records. We outline several types of irregular observations and provide recommendations for data filtering and cleaning. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of the high-frequency option data with two empirical applications: option-implied variance estimation and risk-neutral density estimation. Both applications highlight the rich information content of the high-frequency OPRA data.

The implied volatility smirk in SPY options

ABSTRACT We provide a comprehensive study of the implied volatility (IV) smirk in the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund (SPY ETF) option market. In general, the IV curves are downward sloping with little curvature, exhibiting an almost straight line. However, the shape of the IV curves becomes more curved during the global financial crisis (GFC) period, indicating that the commonly accepted IV smirk shape is driven by the GFC. In addition, based on in-sample, out-of-sample tests and asset allocation analysis, we show that the first difference of the slope factor can predict the next month’s SPY excess returns.

Is Corporate Governance Priced in the Option Market? Evidence from Shareholder Proposals

By exploiting the local randomness in close-call votes on governance-related shareholder proposals, this paper finds a negative effect of passing a governance proposal on firms’ ex-ante tail risk measured by the cost of option protection against downside tail risks, which suggests that corporate governance is priced in the option market. In a local regression discontinuity (RD) analysis, firms that narrowly pass the majority threshold show a lower ex-ante tail risk measured by implied volatility smirk and model-free implied skewness than those that narrowly fail. This effect is stronger for firms with weaker corporate governance and higher information transparency and is attenuated when firms perform better. Evidence from a global RD analysis confirms the external validity of results in the local RD analysis. Overall, this paper observes a causal impact of corporate governance on the option market and sheds new light on the cross-sectional determinants of option prices.

Jump Contagion among Stock Market Indices: Evidence from Option Markets

This paper explores the contagious propagation of jumps among international stock market indices by exploiting a rich panel of stock and options data. We propose a multivariate option pricing model designed to allow for, but not superimpose, time and space amplification of jumps in option markets. We develop a semi-parametric estimation procedure employing a continuum of moments conditions in GMM with implied states. We introduce a partial-information approach to reduce the computational complexity arising in the multivariate setting, derive the asymptotic properties of our estimators, and analyze their finite-sample performance. Our empirical results reveal evidence of jump contagion in option markets, both from the US to Europe and vice versa, with the US leading the UK and standing on equal footing with Germany. We illustrate the importance of capturing jump contagion for risk management, option pricing, and scenario analysis.

A Truthful Generalization of Black‐Scholes‐Merton

BSM was never equipped to face an options market. The formula doesn't know what an options market is and even less so what the meaning of inverting the formula and implying volatility from the option market price could possibly be.

Do Financial Markets Anticipate Corporate Related Decisions of the United States Supreme Court?

This paper investigates stock and option market reactions to judicial events in the United States Supreme Court (SC) relating to cases where at least one party involved is a public firm. Using a comprehensive dataset of more than 500 SC cases from 1948 to 2018, we find that the stock market reacts to both the grant of certiorari and to the announcement of the final decision, suggesting that the stock market could not anticipate the SC actions. We also find that case-specific characteristics, such as parties involved, the type of legal issue, and press coverage explain some of the cross-sectional variations in the stock returns across cases. Our tests indicate that there is no information leakage prior to the events and no stock price drift after the events. Finally, we find some evidence that the option market anticipates the final decision as early as the date certiorari is granted, reinforcing the theory that smart money comes early to the option market.

The Role of Leveraged ETFs and Option Market Imbalances on End-of-Day Price Dynamics

Leveraged ETFs and market makers who are active in option markets must ad-just imbalances arising from market movements. Establishing delta-neutrality may cause either return momentum or reversal depending on the sign and size of the imbalance vis-a-vis market prevailing liquidity. We find that a large and negative (positive) aggregated gamma imbalance, relative to the average dollar volume, gives rise to an economically and statistically significant end-of-day momentum (rever-sal). We compare this channel to the rebalancing of leveraged ETFs and find that the effect generated by leveraged ETFs is economically larger. Consistent with the notion of temporary price pressure, the documented effects quickly revert at the next day’s open. Information-based explanations are unlikely to cause the results, suggesting a non-informational channel through which leveraged ETFs and option markets affect underlying stocks towards the market close.

Determinants of Option Markets Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis on European Markets

This paper attempts to discover the macroeconomic determinants of liquidity in option markets, which is measured by the open interest, the volume (number of transactions), the implied volatility and the bid-ask spread. The macroeconomic determinants of each European economy employed in this study are 1) the gross domestic product, the gross domestic product per capita, the unemployment rate, the income tax rate, the corporate tax rate, the population, the bank capital-to-assets ratio, the inflation, the 10-year government bond yield rate, 2) the market capitalization (of listed domestic companies), the Standard & Poor’s global equity indices (annual % change), the stocks traded (turnover ratio of domestic shares (%) and total value), which show the breadth of a country’s capital markets, as well as 3) indices like the economic freedom, the freedom from corruption, the fiscal freedom, the business freedom, the investment freedom, the financial freedom. Panel data linear regressions are performed to find evidence that the liquidity of the option markets is mainly affected by macroeconomic and capital market determinants, whereas the economic freedom indicators play a less significant role. The findings can be of use to the policymakers and option market authorities who wish to increase the liquidity of these markets. The novelties introduced by this study are the consideration of macroeconomic variables as determinants of option market liquidity and the subsequent use of these determinants in order to make policy recommendations.

Does Options Trading Deter Real Activities Manipulation?

We examine whether and how options trading activity curtails real activities manipulation. Using a large sample of US firms that are suspected of earnings manipulation, we document that an active options trading market significantly reduces real activities manipulation. We confirm our findings by using 2SLS analyses and alternative research designs. Our findings are also robust to using alternative proxies for options trading activity. Further, we find that the deterring impact of options trading on real activities manipulation is more pronounced among firms with low institutional ownership, firms in highly competitive industries, and small and young firms. Overall, our findings show that an active options market discourages managers from engaging in real activities manipulation as informed options trading helps stock prices better reflect adverse consequences of real activities manipulation. Our findings highlight the benefits of the options market development in reducing value-destroying activities and thus provide policy, practice, and research implications.

Dynamic interaction between historical and implied volatility in the Indian option market

Forecasting volatility plays a key role while trading in the futures and options market. An accurate estimate of future volatility would facilitate the traders to determine the intrinsic value of o...

Introducing the Cryptocurrency VIX: CVIX

We present a theoretical and empirical methodology that reflects the Cryptocurrency version of VIX, which we name it as CVIX (Crypto VIX), and captures the future 30 days forward Crypto risk (fear). Our framework is built on idiosyncratic and systematic Crypto risk, and is not based on the option implied volatility model, that developed by the CBOE for the S&P Volatility Index VIX. For back testing, our CVIX projected with accuracy of over 89% the 30 days forward Crypto realized volatility. We apply our CVIX framework on the S&P index, and show it projects the 30 days forward realized S&P volatility with accuracy of 91.8%, while VIX’s accuracy is only 63.4%. Our framework is superior over the option based VIX due to the fact that the option market does not represents all the stock market, and our methodology accounts properly for the idiosyncratic risk.

The Index Effect: Evidence from the Option Market

We document a significantly positive response of delta-hedged option positions on companies entering or leaving the S&P 500 index. Our findings (i) hold for both call and put options, (ii) are robust to placebo- and risk-adjustments, and (iii) are stronger for companies that are likely subject to more demand pressure from stock index investors. The inclusion effect is permanent, while the exclusion effect is transitory. We explore various mechanisms to explain these results, including leading theories of benchmarking, investor recognition, noise trading, and dispersion trading. We find that these explanations cannot individually account for all our novel results.

Shareholder Meetings Uncertainty: Evidence from the Options Market

Extant literature finds insignificant abnormal returns around shareholder meetings. We verify those findings but show that option implied volatility gradually declines by about 1.04 percent between record and meeting dates and then by about 0.30 percent right after annual meetings. These declines occur even if meetings do not have shareholder proposals or close votes. The post-meeting decline is more pronounced for meetings with close-call shareholder proposals. Our evidence indicates that investors anticipate meeting outcomes to affect stock prices and that shareholder proposals are consequential but have heterogeneous value implications.

Is Corporate Governance Priced in the Option Market? Evidence from Shareholder Proposals

Is Corporate Governance Priced in the Option Market? Evidence from Shareholder Proposals

The application of the improved option parity arbitrage model in SSE 50ETF option

The SSE 50ETF option is China's first stock index option product launched in 2015. For a number of reasons, the options market can sometimes create arbitrage opportunities. Based on the theory of option parity arbitrage and taking into account the transaction costs, this paper explores effective options arbitrage strategies and practices them. Based on the theory of option parity arbitrage and taking into account the transaction costs, this paper establishes an effective option arbitrage strategy model and puts it into practice. The results show that there are indeed arbitrage opportunities in the market that exceed the risk-free rate of return, but there are not many such opportunities, and there is not much arbitrage space under many opportunities. This is not only the embodiment of high market efficiency, but also the result of taking various transaction costs into full consideration in this paper to ensure the effectiveness of arbitrage.

The Price of Covid-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Options Market

The Price of Covid-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Options Market

Investor Sentiment Index and Option Price Volatility Based on MIDAS Model: Evidence from China

The paper selects the transaction data of the option market and network data from June 1, 2015 to February 2, 2018. The principal component analysis is adopted to construct investor sentiment index. The OLS and MIDAS model are employed to study the influence of investor sentiment index on the option implied volatility in Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF. The empirical results show that the MIDAS model with more high-frequency information has stronger interpretation ability than the same frequency model. Investor sentiment index based on traditional indicators has a negative effect on the option implied volatility while the excessive attention of investors on the Internet would exert positive pressure on the option market. The conclusion can well explain the inherent mechanism of investor sentiment affecting option implied volatility. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the influence of investor sentiment on the option price volatility in China

Pairs Trading In The index Options Market

We test the Index options market efficiency by means of a statistical arbitrage strategy, i.e. pairs trading. Using data on five Stock Indexes of the Euro Area, we first identify any potential option mispricing based on deviations from the long-run relationship linking their implied volatilities. Then, we evaluate the profitability of a simple pair trading strategy on the mispriced options. Despite the signals of potential mispricing are frequent, the statistical arbitrage does not produce significant positive returns, thus providing evidence in support of Index Option market efficiency. The time-to-maturity of the options involved in the trade as well as financial market turbulence have a marginal effect on the eventual strategy returns, which are instead mostly driven by the moneyness of the options traded. Our results remain qualitatively unchanged if a stricter definition of reversion to the equilibrium is applied or when the long-run relationship is estimated on an (artificially derived) time series of options prices rather than on options’ implied volatilities.