Optimistic Beliefs Research Articles

Communication with relatives on prognosis of critically ill patients

Most patients admitted to the intensive care unit are unable to participate in decisions relating to their care. Therefore, physicians have to inform relatives on the condition of the patient, his evolution and the estimated prognosis. Numerous studies have shown that relatives commonly have inaccurate expectations of the patient’s prognosis, due to either misunderstanding of oral information by the physicians and/or overly optimistic beliefs. This may lead to undue prolongation of an ICU stay in the case of a poor prognosis. Several methods have been proposed in order to align relatives with the estimation of the patient’s prognosis by the physicians. The use of visual tools, added to oral information seems beneficial. Moreover, communication with relatives on the prognosis has to convey support and empathy.

Aspergillus flavus originated pure compound as a potential antibacterial

Problem BackgroundPenicillin was the first and most famous fungal secondary metabolite used as broad spectrum antibiotic that revolutionarised pharmaceutical research and also saved millions of lives. The over optimistic belief in 1967 that sufficient antibiotics had been discovered to defeat infectious diseases was quickly crashed with the appearance of multidrug resistant (MDR) bacteria in 1990s. This has posed a serious threat to mankind. Although scientists are making efforts to synthesize and discover new antibiotics there are not enough new drugs in pharmaceutical pipeline to beat the pace at which MDR bacteria are emerging. In view of this there is an urgent and serious medical need for new bioactive compounds to be discovered to treat infections caused by MDR pathogens. The present study is aimed to investigate the antibacterial potential of Aspergillus flavus originated compounds that may act as drug leads to treat future infections.MethodologyAmong the 6 isolated fungal strains from the rhizosphere of Mentha piperetta, one was processed for isolation of secondary metabolites on the basis of preliminary antibacterial testing. Observation of morphological and microscopic features helped in identification of the fungal strain as Aspergillus flavus. Potato Dextrose Agar (PDA) medium was used for fungal growth while Czapec Yeast Broth (CYB) medium was used for production of fungal metabolites. Column chromatography technique was utilized for purification of compound from crude fungal extract and the mass of the compound was determined using Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (LCMS) method. Structure elucidation of the pure compound was performed using 500 Varian Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) machine. Docking was performed using Glide SP algorithm. Agar well diffusion method was used to determine the invitro antibacterial potential of the compound against two MDR bacterial strains i.e. Staphylococcus aureus and Proteus vulgaris. For this a total of 4 dose concentrations i.e. (100, 250, 500, 1000 μg mL− 1) of the compound were prepared and applied to bacterial strains on Mueller Hinton agar using tetracycline as control.ResultsThe chemical name of the purified compound from A. flavus was determined as (2E)-3-[(3S, 4R)-8-hydroxy-3, 4-dimethyl-1-oxo-3, 4-dihydro-1H-2- benzopyran-7-yl] prop-2-enoic acid with the formula C14H14O5 and exact mass of 262.08. The in-Silico analysis showed that this compound has the potential to inhibit the binding pocket of S. aureus TyrRS (1JII) with docking score of − 8.67 Kcal mole− 1. The results obtained from invitro experiments were encouraging as at 1000 μg mL− 1 the compound showed 58.8% inhibition against S. aureus and 28% inhibition against P. vulgaris.ConclusionsThe pure compound with formula C14H14O5 and exact mass of 262 exhibited antibacterial potential both insilico and invitro against both Gram negative and Gram positive bacteria. The compound was more active against S. aureus in comparison to P. vulgaris. From the obtained results it is concluded that this compound can be used as potent antibacterial candidate but further studies will be needed prior to its use as antibiotic.

Reality Bites

Reality Bites

Risk perception and optimism during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Slowing the spread of COVID-19 requires people to actively change their lives by following protective practices, such as physical distancing and disinfecting their hands. Perceptions about the personal risk of COVID-19 may affect compliance with these practices. In this study, we assessed risk perception and optimism about COVID-19 in a multinational (UK, USA and Germany), longitudinal design during the early stages of the pandemic (16 March 2020; 1 April 2020; 20 May 2020). Our main findings are that (i) people showed a comparative optimism bias about getting infected and infecting others, but not for getting severe symptoms, (ii) this optimism bias did not change over time, (iii) optimism bias seemed to relate to perceived level of control over the action, (iv) risk perception was linked to publicly available information about the disorder, (v) people reported adhering closely to protective measures but these measures did not seem to be related to risk perception, and (vi) risk perception was related to questions about stress and anxiety. In additional cross-sectional samples, we replicated our most important findings. Our open and partly preregistered results provide detailed descriptions of risk perceptions and optimistic beliefs during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western countries.

Optimism where there is none: Asymmetric belief updating observed with valence-neutral life events

How people update their beliefs when faced with new information is integral to everyday life. A sizeable body of literature suggests that people's belief updating is optimistically biased, such that their beliefs are updated more in response to good news than bad news. However, recent research demonstrates that findings previously interpreted as evidence of optimistic belief updating may be the result of flaws in experimental design, rather than motivated reasoning. In light of this controversy, we conduct three pre-registered variations of the standard belief updating paradigm (combined N = 300) in which we test for asymmetric belief updating with neutral, non-valenced stimuli using analytic approaches found in previous research. We find evidence of seemingly biased belief updating with neutral stimuli — results that cannot be attributed to a motivational, valence-based, optimism account — and further show that there is uninterpretable variability across samples and analytic techniques. Jointly, these results serve to highlight the methodological flaws in current optimistic belief updating research.

When Doctors and Families Disagree in the Neurologic Intensive Care Unit—Misunderstandings and Optimistic Beliefs

When Doctors and Families Disagree in the Neurologic Intensive Care Unit—Misunderstandings and Optimistic Beliefs

Assessment of Discordance Between Physicians and Family Members Regarding Prognosis in Patients With Severe Acute Brain Injury

Shared decision-making requires key stakeholders to align in perceptions of prognosis and likely treatment outcomes. For patients with severe acute brain injury, the objective of this study was to better understand prognosis discordance between physicians and families by determining prevalence and associated factors. This mixed-methods cross-sectional study analyzed a cohort collected from January 4, 2018, to July 22, 2020. This study was conducted in the medical and cardiac intensive care units of a single neuroscience center. Participants included families, physicians, and nurses of patients admitted with severe acute brain injury. Severe acute brain injury was defined as stroke, traumatic brain injury, or hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy with a Glasgow Coma Scale score less than or equal to 12 points after hospital day 2. Prognosis discordance was defined as a 20% or greater difference between family and physician prognosis predictions; misunderstanding was defined as a 20% or greater difference between physician prediction and the family's estimate of physician prediction; and optimistic belief difference was defined as any difference (>0%) between family prediction and their estimate of physician prediction. Logistic regression was used to identify associations with discordance. Optimistic belief differences were analyzed as a subgroup of prognosis discordance. Among 222 enrolled patients, prognostic predictions were available for 193 patients (mean [SD] age, 57 [19] years; 106 men [55%]). Prognosis discordance occurred for 118 patients (61%) and was significantly more common among families who identified with minoritized racial groups compared with White families (odds ratio [OR], 3.14; CI, 1.40-7.07, P = .006); among siblings (OR, 4.93; 95% CI, 1.35-17.93, P = .02) and adult children (OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.10-5.37; P = .03) compared with spouses; and when nurses perceived family understanding as poor compared with good (OR, 3.73; 95% CI, 1.88-7.40; P < .001). Misunderstanding was present for 80 of 173 patients (46%) evaluated for this type of prognosis discordance, and optimistic belief difference was present for 94 of 173 patients (54%). In qualitative analysis, faith and uncertainty emerged as themes underlying belief differences. Nurse perception of poor family understanding was significantly associated with misunderstanding (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.07-3.94; P = .03), and physician perception with optimistic belief differences (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.10-4.88; P = .03). Results of this cross-sectional study suggest that for patients with severe acute brain injury, prognosis discordance between physicians and families was common. Efforts to improve communication and decision-making should aim to reduce this discordance and find ways to target both misunderstanding and optimistic belief differences.

Adult Adoptees’ Perspectives on Adoption: A South African Perspective

This qualitative study explored perspectives on adoption of 12 searching adult adoptees. A thematic analysis resulted in four meta-themes: (1) Optimistic adoption views, beliefs and values, (2) the integral role of the adoptive family in adoption, (3+) the effects of adoption, and (4) perceptions of adoption in society. These findings indicate that adoption is a good alternative to substitute, foster or institutional care. All participants believed in the positive nature of adoption and the possibility of positive adoption outcomes. However, a positive adoption experience may be dependent on the adoptees’ access to their biological history, the absence of abuse, and open communication about adoption.

Self-beneficial belief updating as a coping mechanism for stress-induced negative affect

Being confronted with social-evaluative stress elicits a physiological and a psychological stress response. This calls for regulatory processes to manage negative affect and maintain self-related optimistic beliefs. The aim of the current study was to investigate the affect-regulating potential of self-related updating of ability beliefs after exposure to social-evaluative stress, in comparison to non-social physical stress or no stress. We assessed self-related belief updating using trial-by-trial performance feedback and described the updating behavior in a mechanistic way using computational modeling. We found that social-evaluative stress was accompanied by an increase in cortisol and negative affect which was related to a positive shift in self-related belief updating. This self-beneficial belief updating, which was absent after physical stress or control, was associated with a better recovery from stress-induced negative affect. This indicates that enhanced integration of positive self-related feedback can act as a coping strategy to deal with social-evaluative stress.

Market sentiment and heterogeneous agents in an evolutive financial model

We study a financial market populated by heterogeneous agents, whose decisions are driven by “animal spirits”. Each agent may have either correct, optimistic or pessimistic beliefs about the fundamental value, which can change from time to time based on an evolutionary mechanism. The evolutionary selection of beliefs depends on a weighted evaluation of the general market sentiment perceived by the agents and on a profitability measure of the existent strategies. As the relevance given to the sentiment index increases, a herding phenomenon in agent behavior may occur and animal spirits can drive the market toward polarized economic regimes, which coexist and are characterized by persistent high or low levels of optimism and pessimism. This conduct is detectable from agents polarized shares and beliefs, which in turn influence the price level. Such polarized regimes can consist in stable steady states or can be characterized by endogenous dynamics, generating persistent alternating waves of optimism and pessimism, as well as return distributions displaying the typical features of financial time series, such as fat tails, excess volatility and multifractality. Moreover, we show that if the sentiment has no or low relevance on belief selection, those stylized facts are abated or are missing from the simulated time series.

When a gain becomes a loss: The effect of wealth predictions on financial decisions

When people make financial decisions, they need not only think about their current financial situation, but also about changes in future wealth. This work investigates people's beliefs about their future wealth and how these beliefs impact financial decisions. Using a joint experimental and computational cognitive modeling approach, we show that people's future beliefs serve as reference points when making investment decisions. These results are further supported by data from a large-scale cross-sectional survey (n = 4606) showing that people's beliefs about the future value of their assets are related to investment decisions between risky (i.e., stock market index) and safe (i.e., bond earning a fixed amount per year) options. In both the experiments and survey, we hypothesize that outcomes that are nominally stated as sure gains can become coded as losses due to belief-based reference points. This pattern leads to an increase in riskier choices across positive outcomes for individuals with optimistic beliefs about their future wealth.

Deinstitutionalization Through Optimism: The Community Mental Health Act of 1963.

Deinstitutionalization Through Optimism: The Community Mental Health Act of 1963.

Personality and climate change mitigation: a psychological and semiotic exploration of the sustainable choices of optimists

Abstract Climate change is an anthropogenic existential threat that provokes extreme concern among climate scientists, but not, it seems, among all member of the public. Here, there is considerably more variability in level of concern and, it appears, in everyday sustainable behavior. But how does personality affect this variability in behavior? And how are underlying personality states like dispositional optimism linked to more sustainable everyday practices? Research in clinical psychology has suggested that dispositional optimism is a very positive personality characteristic associated with higher levels of hope and resilience, but applied research from other domains has reported that optimists can, on occasion, bury their heads in the sand and avoid attending to external threats, like climate change, in order to maintain mood state. So are optimists more immune to climate change messaging than non-optimists? And do they make fewer sustainable choices? A series of experimental studies, manipulating signifiers of carbon footprint (Study 1) and eco labels on products (Study 2) found that optimists made more sustainable choices than non-optimists and that both groups were influenced equally by climate change film clips in terms of sustainable choices (Study 1). Optimists also displayed a false consensus effect, overestimating the proportion of people who would behave more sustainably like themselves (Study 3). Given that global problems like climate change need concerted, cooperative effort, these optimistic beliefs about how others behave could be adaptive in the long-run. Designing climate change messages to appeal to optimists might be a critical consideration for the future.

Ownership, Learning, and Beliefs

AbstractWe examine how owning a good affects learning and beliefs about its quality. We show that people have more extreme reactions to information about a good they own compared with the same information about a nonowned good: ownership causes more optimistic beliefs after receiving a positive signal and more pessimistic beliefs after receiving a negative signal. Comparing learning to normative benchmarks reveals that people overextrapolate from signals about goods they own, which leads to an overreaction to information; in contrast, learning is close to Bayesian for nonowned goods. We provide direct evidence that this effect is driven by ownership channeling greater attention toward associated information, which leads people to overweight recent signals when forming beliefs. The relationship between ownership and beliefs has testable implications for trade and market expectations. In line with these predictions, we show that the endowment effect doubles in response to positive information and disappears with negative information, and demonstrate a significant relationship between ownership and overextrapolation in survey data about stock market expectations.

SELF-EFFICACY, AFFECTIVE WELL-BEING, AND INTENT-TO-LEAVE BY SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS: A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL

The current research aims to explore the impact of Science and Mathematics teachers’ self-efficacy on their intentions to leave through the mediating effects of their affective wellbeing (stress, burnout, and depression). Data were collected from 329 teachers of Science and Mathematics who were selected randomly with a clustered sampling method from 232 secondary schools in South and East Anatolia, Turkey. The structural equation model that yielded the best fit indicated that as teachers’ self-efficacy levels increase, their stress, burnout, depression, and intent-to-leave levels decrease. Teachers with high self-efficacy are less likely to develop intention-to-leave because of their positive affective well-being indicators. Results suggest that maths and science teachers who have optimistic beliefs in their capabilities can more easily cope with the stressors at work and have better affective well-being, and consequently, a lower level of intention-to-leave. The results provide educational leaders with insights as to how better to retain qualified Science and Mathematics teachers. Keywords: intent-to-leave, self-efficacy, science and mathematics teachers, wellbeing

Hope, bias and survival expectations of advanced cancer patients: A cross‐sectional study

Many patients with advanced illness are unrealistically optimistic about their prognosis. We test for the presence of several cognitive biases, including optimism bias, illusion of superiority, self-deception, misattribution, and optimistic update bias, that could explain unrealistically optimistic prognostic beliefs among advanced cancer patients and quantifies the extent to which hope exacerbates these biases. A cross-sectional survey was administered to 200 advanced cancer patients with physician-estimated prognoses of one year or less. Hope was measured using the Herth Hope Index (HHI). Hypotheses were tested using linear and logistic regressions and a structural-equation model. Results are consistent with the presence of optimism bias, illusion of superiority, self-deception, and misattribution. All of these biases are amplified by higher levels of hope. Each 1-point higher HHI is associated with a 6% (OR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.01-1.11) greater odds of believing their illness is curable, a 0.33-year (95% CI: 0.17-0.49) longer expected survival, a 6% (OR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.02-1.11) higher probability of believing that survival outcomes are better than the average patient, a 5% higher odds of believing primary intent of treatment is curative (OR: 1.05; 95% CI: 1.00-1.10), and a 12% (OR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.05-1.17) higher odds of believing they are well-informed. Mediation analyses revealed that hope significantly mediates the effect of mental-well-being and loneliness on expected survival. Results suggest advanced cancer patients succumb to several cognitive biases which are exacerbated by greater levels of hope. As a result, they are susceptible to possible over-treatment and regret.

Political games of attack and defence.

Political conflicts often revolve around changing versus defending a status quo. We propose to capture the dynamics between proponents and opponents of political change in terms of an asymmetric game of attack and defence with its equilibrium in mixed strategies. Formal analyses generate predictions about effort expended on revising and protecting the status quo, the form and function of false signalling and cheap talk, how power differences impact conflict intensity and the likelihood of status quo revision. Laboratory experiments on the neurocognitive and hormonal foundations of attack and defence reveal that out-of-equilibrium investments in attack emerge because of non-selfish preferences, limited capacity to compute costs and benefits and optimistic beliefs about the chances of winning from one's rival. We conclude with implications for the likelihood of political change and inertia, and discuss the role of ideology in political games of attack and defence.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The political brain: neurocognitive and computational mechanisms’.

The Modest Effects of Fact Boxes on Cancer Screening.

As health care becomes increasingly personalized to the needs and values of individual patients, informational interventions that aim to inform and debias consumer decision-making are likely to become important tools. In a randomized controlled experiment, we explore the effects of providing participants with published fact boxes on the benefits and harms of common cancer screening procedures. Female participants were surveyed about breast cancer screening by mammography, while male participants were surveyed about prostate cancer screening by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. For these screening procedures, we expect consumers to have overly optimistic prior beliefs about the benefits and harms. We find that participants update their beliefs about the net benefits of screening modestly, but we observe little change in their stated preferences to seek screening. Participants who scored higher on a numeracy test updated their beliefs about screening benefits more in response to the fact boxes than did participants who scored lower on the numeracy test.

Optimistic amnesia: how online and offline processing shape belief updating and memory biases in immediate and long-term optimism biases.

When people are confronted with feedback that counters their prior beliefs, they preferentially rely on desirable rather than undesirable feedback in belief updating, i.e. an optimism bias. In two pre-registered EEG studies employing an adverse life event probability estimation task, we investigated the neurocognitive processes that support the formation and the change of optimism biases in immediate and 24 h delayed tests. We found that optimistic belief updating biases not only emerged immediately but also became significantly larger after 24 h, suggesting an active role of valence-dependent offline consolidation processes in the change of optimism biases. Participants also showed optimistic memory biases: they were less accurate in remembering undesirable than desirable feedback probabilities, with inferior memories of undesirable feedback associated with lower belief updating in the delayed test. Examining event-related brain potentials (ERPs) revealed that desirability of feedback biased initial encoding: desirable feedback elicited larger P300s than undesirable feedback, with larger P300 amplitudes predicting both higher belief updating and memory accuracies. These results suggest that desirability of feedback could bias both online and offline memory-related processes such as encoding and consolidation, with both processes contributing to the formation and change of optimism biases.

Teaching French During a Pandemic: Lessons in Innovation, Creativity, and Community

[...]in early March she requested to attend class online: I'm afraid that it is still a very, very optimistic belief to hold that smaller events are going to be safer […] While we could no longer visit local museums, go to theatre performances, or attend global music concerts (I am still mourning the fact that we missed the Coeur de Pirate concert at Berklee School of Music in May), I nevertheless wanted to offer them various possibilities for cultural exploration. Since many students had left their residence halls and returned home to live with their parents, they had access to a kitchen so I encouraged them to take advantage of this unique opportunity. [...]students produced wonderful pictures and videos of their culinary adventures making gâteau au yaourt, crepes, and tarte aux pommes. While one can easily identify intelligence and study skills in the traditional classroom, the unique circumstances of this semester provided me a glimpse into the patience my student displayed as he lovingly ruffled his younger brother's hair on the occasions when the child flitted in and out of our Zoom meetings.