Optimal Policy Response Research Articles

A Theory of the Non-Neutrality of Money with Banking Frictions and Bank Recapitalization

The unconventional monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve during the recent Global Financial Crisis often involve implicit subsidies to banks. This paper offers a theory of the non-neutrality of money associated with capital injection into banks via nominal transfers, in an environment where banking frictions are present in the sense that there exists an agency problem between banks and their private-sector creditors. The analysis is conducted within a general equilibrium setting with two-sided financial contracting. We first show that even with perfect nominal flexibility, the recapitalization policy has real effects on the economy. We then introduce banking riskiness shocks and study optimal policy responses to such shocks.

A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana

A model in which monetary policy pursues full-fledged inflation targeting adapts well to Ghana. Model features include: endogenous policy credibility; non-linearities in the inflation process; and a policy loss function that aims to minimize the variability of output and the interest rate, as well as deviations of inflation from the long-term low-inflation target. The optimal approach from initial high inflation to the ultimate target is gradual; and transitional inflation-reduction objectives are flexible. Over time, as policy earns credibility, expectations of inflation converge towards the long-run target, the output-inflation variability tradeoff improves, and optimal policy responses to shocks moderate.

A Model for Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting and Application to Ghana

A model in which monetary policy pursues full-fledged inflation targeting adapts well to Ghana. Model features include: endogenous policy credibility; non-linearities in the inflation process; and a policy loss function that aims to minimize the variability of output and the interest rate, as well as deviations of inflation from the long-term low-inflation target. The optimal approach from initial high inflation to the ultimate target is gradual; and transitional inflation-reduction objectives are flexible. Over time, as policy earns credibility, expectations of inflation converge towards the long-run target, the output-inflation variability tradeoff improves, and optimal policy responses to shocks moderate.

Inflation targeting, asset prices, and financial imbalances: Contextualizing the debate

This paper casts the debate regarding the role of asset prices and financial imbalances in the formulation of monetary policy from the perspective of theoretically optimal policy responses. Within the context of a standard model of the transmission mechanism, several possible motivations for responding to financial imbalances are highlighted. However, preventative policy actions against the build-up of financial imbalances cannot be easily understood within such a framework without fundamental modification to the underlying model. It is argued that a more practical way to evaluate such actions is through the inclusion of concerns for financial imbalances explicitly in the central bank's objective function.

Inflation Targeting, Asset Prices and Financial Imbalances: Conceptualizing the Debate

This paper attempts to conceptualize the debate regarding the role of asset prices and perceived financial imbalances in the formation of monetary policy from the perspective of theoretically optimal policy responses. While much of the disagreement can be reconciled within the framework of flexible inflation targeting, defined as a commitment to a targeting rule, preemptive policy actions against the build-up of financial imbalances cannot be motivated within such a framework without modification either to the targeting rule or the underlying model. Given standard forecasting models, such actions are shown to be operationally equivalent to targeting financial imbalances explicitly in the central bank loss function.

More or Less Aggressive? Robust Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Financial Distress

This paper investigates the optimal monetary policy response to a shock to collateral when policymakers act under discretion and face model uncertainty. The analysis is based on a New Keynesian model where banks supply loans to transaction constrained consumers. Our results confirm the literature on model uncertainty with respect to a cost-push shock. Insuring against model misspecification leads to a more aggressive policy response. The same is true for a shock to collateral. A preference for robustness leads to a more aggressive policy. Increasing the weight attached to interest rate smoothing raises the degree of aggressiveness. Our results indicate that a preference for robustness crucially depends on the way different types of disturbances affect the economy: in the case of a shock to collateral the policymaker does not need to be as much worried about model misspecification as in the case of a conventional cost-push shock.

A Framework to Enforce Anti-Predation Rules

The major interest of antitrust law and economics with respect to predation strategies has been largely twofold. On the one hand, there has been a lively discussion on the question whether predation can basically be a rational strategy for an incumbent facing an entry threat. On the other hand, research has focused on the problem of how an antitrust authority should detect predation strategies and especially distinguish such abuses from socially desirable, procompetitive behaviour. However, compared to other areas of antitrust policy such as hard core cartel enforcement or merger control, surprisingly little research has been devoted to the subsequent third stage in antitrust analysis: intervention. This stage acknowledges the necessity of appropriate detection rules for efficient antitrust enforcement, but it uses these insights to answer the complementary question of how these rules should be linked to punishment with a pecuniary fine and/or the imposition of behavioural remedies. Against this background, the paper aims at developing a framework to enforce anti-predation rules that explicitly takes the intervention stage into account. Following a characterisation and rationalisation of predation, the welfare effects of predation are studied. Given the key finding that predation can be a rational business strategy with negative implications on overall welfare, research with respect to the detection of predation is reviewed. However, given the fact that detecting is a necessary but not sufficient condition for ‘enforcing’, the intervention options against predators are analyzed subsequently. The analysis differentiates between a no rule approach, an ex post rule of reason and an ex ante per se rule. It was shown that no policy option dominates the others and that the welfare optimal policy response depends on several industry and market characteristics such as the level of the incumbency advantages, the level of the gains of entry for society or the specifics of antitrust enforcement in the respective jurisdiction. Subsequently, the key insights of the analysis are incorporated into the development of a framework to enforce anti-predation rules which aims at increasing the deterrence effect of predation strategies without biasing the fundamentally important incentives of firms for procompetitive price decreases.

Outsourcing, Public Input Provision and Policy Cooperation

This paper concerns public input provision as an instrument for redistribution under international outsourcing by using a model-economy comprising two countries, North and South, where firms in the North may outsource part of their low-skilled labor intensive production to the South. We consider two interrelated issues: (i) the incentives for each country to modify the provision of public input goods in response to international outsourcing, and (ii) whether international outsourcing justifies policy cooperation. If the public input good is substitutable for (complementary with) outsourcing in terms of the production function faced by northern firms, then outsourcing contributes to increase (decrease) the public input provision in the North. For the South, the optimal policy response depends on the level of outsourcing. We also show how policy cooperation with respect to public input provision can be designed to increase the overall social welfare.

Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates

In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap, but also by a wide array of “dual mandate” policies that are not overly aggressive in stabilizing core inflation. Finally, policies that react to a forecast of headline inflation following a temporary energy shock imply markedly different effects than policies that react to a forecast of core, with the former inducing greater volatility in core inflation and the output gap.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation Rates

In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well-approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap, but also by a wide array of "dual mandate" policies that are not overly aggressive in stabilizing core inflation. Finally, policies that react to a forecast of headline inflation following a temporary energy shock imply markedly different effects than policies that react to a forecast of core, with the former inducing greater volatility in core inflation and the output gap.

Monetary Policy under Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity

We develop a New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting where downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) arises endogenously through the wage bargaining institutions. It is shown that the optimal (discretionary) monetary policy response to changing economic conditions then becomes asymmetric. Interestingly, in our baseline model we find that the welfare loss is actually slightly smaller in an economy with DNWR. This is due to that DNWR is not an additional constraint on the monetary policy problem. Instead, it is a constraint that changes the choice set and opens up for potential welfare gains due to lower wage variability. Another finding is that the Taylor rule provides a fairly good approximation of optimal policy under DNWR. In contrast, this result does not hold in the unconstrained case. In fact, under the Taylor rule, agents would clearly prefer an economy with DNWR before an unconstrained economy ex ante.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation Rates

In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well-approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap, but also by a wide array of dual mandate policies that are not overly aggressive in stabilizing core inflation. Finally, policies that react to a forecast of headline inflation following a temporary energy shock imply markedly different effects than policies that react to a forecast of core, with the former inducing greater volatility in core inflation and the output gap.

The Macro Management of Commodity Booms: Africa and Latin America's Response to Asian Demand

Strong growth in China and India has led to improvements in raw-material exporting countries' terms of trade and attracted complementary finance. The long-term challenge for these countries, where institutions are often fragile, is to avoid the so-called resource curse. This paper aims to provide a comparative perspective between policy choices in commodity exporting countries, contrasting the experiences of Africa and Latin America. First, it highlights global macroeconomic links between the Asian Drivers (China and India) and these regions. Second, it discusses optimal policy responses from a macroeconomic and institutional perspective. Third, it presents empirical evidence on macroeconomic, particularly fiscal responses to Dutch disease and the specialization effects caused by Asian Drivers' demand and assesses the benefits and challenges offered by the Asian Drivers from a macro perspective for both Africa and Latin America.

Are Changes in Financial Structure Extending Safety Nets?

Significant attention has recently been directed to the optimal policy response when financial excesses threaten. This paper rather addresses issues pertinent to the appropriate policy response once financial difficulties have actually materialised. It begins with some empirical evidence concerning recent changes in financial structure (marketisation, globalisation and consolidation) and documents the rise in the number and variety of episodes of financial instability. The paper then goes on to examine the rationale for government intervention (use of safety net instruments) to reduce the costs of such financial instability, and cautiously concludes that the use of a number of such instruments has been on the rise. Moreover, the balance among them has also been changing. An attempt is then made to link these evolving policy responses back to the underlying changes in financial structure identified earlier. Since the use of safety net instruments always implies in principle some element of moral hazard, the paper concludes with an empirical evaluation of whether this seems to be a matter of practical importance, and whether good design might not have the potential to materially reduce such concerns. The conclusion reached is that sensible policies designed to contain the damage arising from financial instability can have less desirable longer-term consequences. Policymakers thus continue to face an inter-temporal optimisation problem.

The perverse response of interest rates

Abstract The optimal monetary policy response to an increase in aggregate demand may be to reduce the interest rate. This apparently perverse response of interest rates can occur when the Phillips curve is non-linear.

Optimal Policy Response with Control Parameter and Intercept Covariance

Parameter uncertainty and the interaction between the uncertain parameters are important aspects of economic policy. In this work, I develop an analytical one-state variable, one-control variable model with two uncertain parameters (the control parameter and the intercept) and a nonzero covariance. I characterize the effect of changes in each of the covariance components on the optimal expected control variable. I found that the nature of the optimal policy maker's response depends on the specific changing component of the covariance, the sign of the correlation coefficient and the sign of the optimal expected control variable when the covariance is zero. I obtain the conditions under which the effect of the covariance is considerable. This work complements previous studies by providing a complete set of cases and conditions for an aggressive or cautionary optimal policy maker's response to changes in each covariance component. Finally, the importance of the analytical results is shown for the regulation of a stock pollutant leading to global warming.

Optimal Monetary Policy with Vertical Production and Trade*

AbstractThis paper explores the optimal monetary policy response to domestic and foreign technology shocks in an open economy with vertical structure of production and trade. We find that any stage‐specific productivity shock in one country may have a transborder spillover effect on the other country via the vertical trade. So when choosing optimal monetary rules, each monetary authority should respond to both home and foreign productivity shocks. Also, the flexible exchange rate cannot replicate the flexible price equilibrium, even under producer currency pricing, due to price stickiness in multiple stages. We also find that the existence of a transborder spillover effect depends on the currencies of price setting. Finally, vertical trade may affect the value of exchange rate flexibility under PCP and LCP setting.

Monetary Policy and Natural Disasters in a DSGE Model: How Should the Fed Have Responded to Hurricane Katrina?

In the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, speculation arose that the Federal Reserve might respond by easing monetary policy. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the appropriate monetary policy response to a natural disaster. We show that the standard Taylor (1993) rule response in models with and without nominal rigidities is to increase the nominal interest rate. That finding is unchanged when we consider the optimal policy response to a disaster. A nominal interest rate increase following a disaster mitigates both temporary inflation effects and output distortions that are attributable to nominal rigidities.

Optimal Response to a Transitory Demographic Shock in Social Security Financing

We examine the optimal policy response to a transitory demographic shock that affects negatively the financing of retirement pensions. In contrast to existing literature, we endogenously determine optimal policies rather than exploring implications of exogenous parametric policies. Our approach identifies optimal strategies of the social security administration to guarantee the financial sustainability of existing retirement pensions in a Pareto improving way. Hence, no cohort will pay the cost of the demographic shock. We find that the optimal strategy is based in the following ingredients: elimination of compulsory retirement, a change in the structure of labor income taxation and a temporary increase in the level of government debt.

A model of optimal legal restrictions and open market operations

This paper considers an asset model that generates a monetary equilibrium in which capital, government bonds, and fiat money are held as perfect substitutes. Due to a congestion effect, output per producer is a decreasing function of the aggregate capital stock, and this effect makes a legal restriction on capital accumulation welfare enhancing. The restriction considered is that the money to capital ratio must be at some level greater than that level existing in a monetary equilibrium. In this context an open market purchase of bonds will decrease the nominal interest rate, and inflation, but may increase or decrease the real interest rate. I also show that the optimal policy response to an exogenous increase in total factor productivity is for the monetary authority to undertake an open market purchase. The two changes together result in a decrease in inflation and the nominal interest rate, and an increase in the real interest rate.