Power distribution companies must establish an optimal maintenance schedule that balances the reliability and efficiency of a number of widely scattered facilities. Accordingly, we have developed an optimization method for inspection scheduling by which optimal inspection schedules are planned using 1) a method to predict the inspection priority for each facility and 2) a method to establish an inspection schedule that minimizes the inspection cost. In this study, for step 1, a practical method using both inspection history and facility attributes is proposed. The method consists of two approaches: a relation analysis and a defect prediction. In the relation analysis, relations between facility defect and other maintenance data are analyzed using a multiple correlation analysis method on the basis of chi-square testing. And then, facility defect is predicted using the data items that correlated with the facility defect obtained from the relation analysis. A modified quantification method type II introducing biased posterior probability is proposed for the prediction. Furthermore, proposed method is demonstrated by utilizing maintenance data accumulated by a certain Japanese power utility company. Evaluation results show that inspection cost can be reduced by 36–58% compared with the conventional twice-every-two-years inspection while retaining reliability.
Read full abstract