Optimal Breeding Research Articles

Economic Value of Pregnancy in Dairy Cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate the value of pregnancy for dairy cows. Effects of the stage of gestation, stage of lactation, lactation number, milk yield, milk price, replacement heifer cost, probability of pregnancy, probability of involuntary culling, and breeding decisions were studied. A bioeconomic model was used, and breeding and replacement decisions were optimized. A general Holstein herd in the United States was modeled. The average value of a new pregnancy was $278. The value of a new pregnancy increased with days in milk early in lactation but typically decreased later in lactation. Relatively high-producing cows and first-lactation cows reached greater values, and their values peaked later in lactation. The average cost of a pregnancy loss (abortion) was $555. The cost of a pregnancy loss typically increased with gestation length. Sensitivity analyses showed that an increased probability of pregnancy, an increased persistency of milk yield, and a smaller replacement heifer cost greatly reduced the average value of a pregnancy. The value of a new pregnancy was negative for relatively high-producing first-lactation cows when persistency of lactation and the probability of pregnancy were increased. Breeding was delayed when the value of pregnancy was negative. Changes in milk price, absolute milk yield, and probability of involuntary culling had less effect on the value of pregnancy. The value of pregnancy and optimal breeding decisions for individual cows were greatly dependent on the predicted daily milk yield for the remaining period of lactation. An improved understanding of the value of pregnancy may support decision making in reproductive management when resources are limited.

Consistent annual schedules in a migratory shorebird

Many migratory birds start prebreeding moult and premigratory fuelling some months before the breeding season and face severe time constraints, while travelling up to 15,000 km between non-breeding and breeding grounds. Shorebirds typically leave Southern Hemisphere non-breeding areas over a 3-4 week period, but whether they benefit from interannually consistent timing of departure is unknown. Here, I show that individual bar-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa baueri) from New Zealand are highly consistent in their migratory scheduling. Most birds left within the same week each year (between-year repeatability, r, of 0.83) and adult males, which moult into a bright breeding plumage, were also highly repeatable in the extent of their prebreeding moult (r=0.86). This is consistent with the hypothesis that birds have individually optimized migration schedules. Within adult males, but not females, smaller birds tended to migrate earlier than large birds. Whether this reflects differences in size-related migration speed, optimal breeding time at different sites or size-related natural or sexual selection pressures, remains unknown.

Optimal control of Atlantic population Canada geese

Management of Canada geese ( Branta canadensis) can be a balance between providing sustained harvest opportunity while not allowing populations to become overabundant and cause damage. In this paper, we focus on the Atlantic population of Canada geese and use stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal harvest strategy over a range of plausible models for population dynamics. There is evidence to suggest that the population exhibits significant age structure, and it is possible to reconstruct age structure from surveys. Consequently the harvest strategy is a function of the age composition, as well as the abundance, of the population. The objective is to maximize harvest while maintaining the number of breeding adults in the population between specified upper and lower limits. In addition, the total harvest capacity is limited and there is uncertainty about the strength of density-dependence. We find that under a density-independent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at the highest acceptable abundance. However if harvest capacity is limited, then the optimal long-term breeding population size is lower than the highest acceptable level, to reduce the risk of the population growing to an unacceptably large size. Under the proposed density-dependent model, harvest is maximized by maintaining the breeding population at an intermediate level between the bounds on acceptable population size; limits to harvest capacity have little effect on the optimal long-term population size. It is clear that the strength of density-dependence and constraints on harvest significantly affect the optimal harvest strategy for this population. Model discrimination might be achieved in the long term, while continuing to meet management goals, by adopting an adaptive management strategy.

Philopatry, Dispersal Patterns and Nest-site Reuse in Lesser Grey Shrikes (Lanius minor)

To nest in the same breeding area, territory or even nest-site in successive years may provide a possibility to look at mechanisms involved in breeding habitat selection and could also be an important tool for conservation, management and restoration attempts. In this study we examine site fidelity towards the breeding area as well as the nesting site in a dense and stable population of the Lesser Grey Shrike Lanius minor, a long-distance migrant and highly endangered passerine species, at its present northern border of its breeding range. Overall we recovered 48 out of 146 (32.8%) adults between 1996 and 2000. Recovery rate is significantly higher for males (31 of 77, 40.25%) than for females (17 of 69, 24.6%). Recovery rate of nestlings is much lower since only 51 of 790 (6.5%) were recovered and there is no significant sex difference. Furthermore, our results from 1989 to 2000 revealed that more than 30% (97/319) of the nests were built in the same nest tree in successive years and more than half (183/319 = 57.4%) of the nests in the same or neighboring trees (up to 20 m), but very seldom by the same individuals. The fact that nest reuse in successive years is almost exclusively done by different individuals suggests habitat copying and public information of individual birds. Due to optimal ecological breeding conditions other parameters like inbreeding avoidance or increased genetic variability could be important factors in nest-site selection strategies and consequently result in a “disperse over stay strategy”.

Effect of inbreeding on growth of white clover

Determining the impact of inbreeding on white clover growth will assist in determining the optimal breeding strategies for future population improvement. A dominant self-fertility allele (Sf) at the S locus was used to inbreed white clover to nearhomozygosity (F=0.99). Inbreeding depression was higher in the glasshouse experiment than was observed under sheep grazing in the field. It was also higher for comparable generations with a 54% reduction in herbage yield of the S1 generation in the glasshouse compared with 29% yield reduction under grazing. The level of inbreeding depression for herbage yield of the S1 and S2 generations observed in the glasshouse were consistent with the theoretical reduction in yield. However in later generations the actual herbage yield was consistently higher than expected. This may be due to heterozygosity being maintained during inbreeding or to the elimination of weaker individuals under higher competition and grazing experienced under field conditions. The degree to which inbreeding depression is overcome by outcrossing (heterosis) in white clover will determine whether hybrids or semi-hybrid cultivars can be successfully developed

Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO 2 fertilization in China

A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 degrees C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20-80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5-15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications.

Estimation of variance components for production and fertility traits in Northern Thai dairy cattle to define optimal breeding strategies

Abstract. Milk production in Thailand has been growing into an important agricultural sector, but it still faces numerous difficulties in environmental constraints. The main intention of this study was to identify significant environmental effects on production and fertility traits to give advices for farm management. Additionally, adjusting records for environmental impact is essential to define appropriate models for estimation of variance components and improving selection procedures. The data consists of production and reproduction records and body measurements from 2764 Holstein upgrade cows in 252 farms. With a body weight of 415 kg and a production level of 3668 kg milk Thai Holsteins only reach approximately 60 % of performances of Holsteins in temperate zones. Percentages of Holstein genes of cows and quality of roughage sources showed a certain effect on calving interval and services per conception but not on milk performances. Despite seasonal effects were not very pronounced on milk yield, there was a strong interaction between years and calving seasons. Estimates of variance components applying REML and animal models were in the range as expected, i.e. heritabilities for production traits between 0.34 and 0.37, for fertility lower than 0.03 and for body weight 0.46. Genetic correlations between fertility and production traits were near zero. Economic weights for milk yield and calving interval were derived as first derivation of profit functions and used for selection index calculations. Suc

Techniques for Extending the Breeding Career of Aging and Disabled Stallions

The useful and comfortable breeding life of most disabled and aging stallions can be extended with well-planned and coordinated management and veterinary care aimed at maintaining libido and adequate copulatory ability. This paper outlines various aspects that can be addressed in a coordinated plan, including pain management, fitness and weight management, optimum breeding management and handling, and alternate methods of semen collection, including ground semen collection, manual stimulation, and pharmacologically induced ejaculation.

Effect of P.G. 600 on the timing of ovulation in gilts treated with altrenogest1

We previously reported that ovulation rate, but not pregnancy rate or litter size at d 30 after mating, was enhanced by treatment with P.G. 600 (400 IU of PMSG and 200 IU of hCG, Intervet America, Inc., Millsboro, DE) in gilts fed the orally active progestin, altrenogest (Matrix, Intervet America, Inc.) to synchronize estrus. We hypothesized that in addition to increasing ovulation rate, P.G. 600 may have altered the timing of ovulation. Therefore, mating gilts 12 and 24 h after first detection of estrus, as is common in the swine industry, may not have been the optimal breeding regimen, and as a consequence, pregnancy rate and litter size were not altered. The objective of the present study was to determine the effect of P.G. 600 on the timing of ovulation in gilts treated with altrenogest. Randomly cycling, crossbred gilts (5.5 mo old, 117 kg BW, and 14.7 mm of backfat) were fed a diet containing altrenogest (15 mg/d) for 18 d. Twenty-four hours after altrenogest withdrawal, gilts received i.m. injections of P.G. 600 (n = 25) or saline (n = 25). Gilts were checked for estrus at 8-h intervals. After first detection of estrus, transrectal ultrasonography was performed at 8-h intervals to determine the time of ovulation. Gilts were killed 9 to 11 d after the onset of estrus to determine ovulation rate. All gilts displayed estrus by 7 d after treatment with P.G. 600 or saline. Compared with saline, P.G. 600 increased (P = 0.07) ovulation rate (14.8 vs. 17.5, respectively; SE = 1.1). The intervals from injection to estrus (110.9 vs. 98.4; SE = 2.7 h; P < 0.01) and injection to ovulation (141.9 vs. 128.6; SE = 3.2 h; P < 0.01) were greater in gilts treated with saline than in gilts treated with P.G. 600. Duration of estrus (54.4 vs. 53.7; SE = 2.5 h), the estrus-to-ovulation interval (30.2 vs. 31.7; SE = 2.2 h), and the time of ovulation as a percentage of estrus duration (55.8 vs. 57.5; SE = 3.0%) did not differ for the P.G. 600 and saline-injected gilts, respectively. In summary, P.G. 600 advanced the onset of estrus and ovulation following termination of altrenogest treatment and increased ovulation rate; however, treatment of gilts with P.G. 600 had no effect on the timing of ovulation relative to the onset of estrus.

Non-genetic factors affecting the reproduction performance, lamb growth and productivity indices of Djallonke sheep

Two important components that determine sheep production efficiency are reproduction and live bodyweight. An understanding of environmental factors affecting these traits is needed to implement optimal breeding and selection programs in Benin (West Africa). In this study, age at first lambing, length of the lambing interval, prolificacy, dam's post-partum weights, lambs weight at weaning and productivity indices of West African Dwarf sheep (Djallonke sheep) were analysed under research conditions. The non-genetic effects (season of birth, year of birth, parity of the ewes and sex of lambs) were determined. Age at first lambing (622.4 ± 55.6 days) was significantly ( p < 0.001) affected by year and season of birth. Lambing interval (242.6 ± 20.8 days) was affected ( p < 0.001) by the year of lambing, sex of the lamb, type of birth (single, twin), parity of the ewe and type of birth–parity interaction. The number of offspring per birth (1.4 ± 0.5) was significantly affected ( p < 0.001) by the year of lambing. Lamb weaning weights at 90 days of age (10.6 ± 2.1 kg) and ewe postpartum weights at lambing (27.5 ± 2.4 kg) were significantly affected ( p < 0.001) by all the fixed effects. Ewes with a heavier body weight exhibited shorter lambing intervals ( p < 0.001) and heavier offspring at 90 day of age ( p < 0.01). Productivity expressed as the body weight of a 90 days of old lamb produced per breeding female per year (17.0 ± 3.1 kg), per kg breeding female per year (0.6 ± 0.1 kg) and per kg breeding female per year (1.4 ± 0.2 kg) were affected ( p < 0.01) by the year of lambing, the parity of ewes, the sex of lambs, and the parity sex interaction. The number of births per month (95.7 ± 74.4) was higher during the rainy season than in dry season. Environmental effects estimated in this study are important and will need to be taken into consideration for sheep breeding improvement.

Genetic Progress in Multistage Dairy Cattle Breeding Schemes Using Genetic Markers

The aim of this paper was to explore general characteristics of multistage breeding schemes and to evaluate multistage dairy cattle breeding schemes that use information on quantitative trait loci (QTL). Evaluation was either for additional genetic response or for reduction in number of progeny-tested bulls while maintaining the same response. The reduction in response in multistage breeding schemes relative to comparable single-stage breeding schemes (i.e., with the same overall selection intensity and the same amount of information in the final stage of selection) depended on the overall selection intensity, the selection intensity in the various stages of the breeding scheme, and the ratio of the accuracies of selection in the various stages of the breeding scheme. When overall selection intensity was constant, reduction in response increased with increasing selection intensity in the first stage. The decrease in response was highest in schemes with lower overall selection intensity. Reduction in response was limited in schemes with low to average emphasis on first-stage selection, especially if the accuracy of selection in the first stage was relatively high compared with the accuracy in the final stage.Closed nucleus breeding schemes in dairy cattle that use information on QTL were evaluated by deterministic simulation. In the base scheme, the selection index consisted of pedigree information and own performance (dams), or pedigree information and performance of 100 daughters (sires). In alternative breeding schemes, information on a QTL was accounted for by simulating an additional index trait. The fraction of the variance explained by the QTL determined the correlation between the additional index trait and the breeding goal trait. Response in progeny test schemes relative to a base breeding scheme without QTL information ranged from +4.5% (QTL explaining 5% of the additive genetic variance) to +21.2% (QTL explaining 50% of the additive genetic variance). A QTL explaining 5% of the additive genetic variance allowed a 35% reduction in the number of progeny tested bulls, while maintaining genetic response at the level of the base scheme. Genetic progress was up to 31.3% higher for schemes with increased embryo production and selection of embryos based on QTL information. The challenge for breeding organizations is to find the optimum breeding program with regard to additional genetic progress and additional (or reduced) cost.

Nesting Habitat Requirements of the Brown Pelican and Their Management Implications

Because of the severe land loss in coastal Louisiana, many natural nesting areas for the Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis) are disappearing. Based on field measurements, geographical information system analysis, and a review of the relevant literature, we developed design criteria for the optimal artificial breeding habitat for Brown Pelican. Brown Pelican colonized islands had at least 70% open water within 20 km surrounding the island. Persistent pelican colonies occurred at least 7 km from the mainland and 0.3 km from the nearest island. Long-term colonized islands were between 10 and 70 ha in size with the shrub and dune habitat ranging from 2 to 20 ha on these islands. Pelicans preferred nesting in shrubs, and nesting occurred at an average elevation of 30 cm above mean sea level. We recommend that management for pelican nesting habitat includes loafing habitat: a beach that is at least 28 m wide is recommended.

Optimization of breeding population size for long-term breeding*

A model for optimization of the long-term breeding population size by considering genetic gain, relatedness, time and cost components was developed for the optimum allocation of resources between the breeding and testing populations. The group coancestry and the average breeding value for the breeding population were merged into a joint index, known as group merit. The size of the breeding population was regarded optimal when the annual increase in group merit was maximized at a budget constraint. A study scenario with a balanced selection and parameters suitable to northerly conifers bred in a multipopulation design was applied. The optimum breeding population size ranged between 30 and 70. High heritability, more efficient breeding strategy, high additive variance at mature age, low annual budget, expensive testing method and a low value assigned to gene diversity favoured a small breeding population size.

An economic spreadsheet model to determine optimal breeding and replacement decisions for dairy cattle.

The aim of this paper is to describe a user-friendly spreadsheet culling model that was constructed to support economical, optimal breeding and replacement decisions on dairy farms. The model was based on the marginal net revenue technique. Inputs for the model can be entered for specific farm conditions, and the output is easily accessible. In the model, the retention pay-off (RPO) value of individual dairy cows was calculated. The RPO value of a cow is equal to the total additional profits that a producer can expect from trying to keep the cow until her optimal age, taking into account the changes of involuntary removal compared with her immediate replacement. To calculate the RPO values, the future production, revenues, and costs of dairy cows at different levels of milk production with different numbers of days open (DO) were determined. Furthermore, the ranges of carcass value, calf revenues, and the range of involuntary disposal rates of cows within and across lactations were taken into account. To illustrate the model, parameters in the model were chosen to represent a typical Holstein dairy herd in Pennsylvania. The results of this model are very comparable with earlier, more complex models that are more difficult to use on the farm. In addition to using the RPO values to evaluate the decision to breed or replace a cow, the costs per additional DO were estimated. Early conception was most profitable with the costs per additional DO varying from $0 to more than $3/d. The model can be used as a decision-supporting tool for producers, extension personnel, veterinarians, and consultants. In addition, researchers, economists, and government organizations can use the model to determine the costs of culling dairy cows in a disease control program. The model and manual are available at http://cahpwww.vet.upenn.edu/software/econcow.html.

Foraging Ecology and Interactions between Herring Gulls and Great Black-backed Gulls in New England

Abstract Numbers of Great Black-backed Gulls (Larus marinus) and Herring Gulls (L. argentatus) along coastal New England have changed dramatically during the last century. In recent years, Great Black-backed Gulls have displaced Herring Gulls from optimal breeding sites, thus potentially contributing to the recent decline of the Herring Gull. Although the quality of foraging habitat is also a strong determinate of reproductive success, potential for competition and interactions between these two species in natural foraging habitats have been largely ignored. In this study, the diet and prey preference of the two species were compared. In addition, the spatial and temporal patterns in foraging activities were examined and interspecific interactions in the rocky intertidal zones were also described. Diet and prey preference of the two species greatly overlapped, with both species consuming a large percentage of marine invertebrates (30-60%), especially crabs. Foraging differed, and the Great Black-backed Gu...

Mendelian sampling terms as a selective advantage in optimum breeding schemes with restrictions on the rate of inbreeding.

Quadratic indices are a general approach for the joint management of genetic gain and inbreeding in artificial selection programmes. They provide the optimal contributions that selection candidates should have to obtain the maximum gain when the rate of inbreeding is constrained to a predefined value. This study shows that, when using quadratic indices, the selective advantage is a function of the Mendelian sampling terms. That is, at all times, contributions of selected candidates are allocated according to the best available information about their Mendelian sampling terms (i.e. about their superiority over their parental average) and not on their breeding values. By contrast, under standard truncation selection, both estimated breeding values and Mendelian sampling terms play a major role in determining contributions. A measure of the effectiveness of using genetic variation to achieve genetic gain is presented and benchmark values of 0.92 for quadratic optimisation and 0.5 for truncation selection are found for a rate of inbreeding of 0.01 and a heritability of 0.25.

Correlation between the breeding indicators of black and white cows in Bulgaria

The objective of this study was to estimate coefficients of variability heritability, genetic and phenotypic correlations between indicators of milk productivity in relation to milk yield and fat content, butter fat and protein content in milk. The foremost quality of 21st century Holstein cow is efficiency (Beaulieu, 1993). She must continue to increase both life production and production per year, preserving the quality. Due to the use of optimum breeding programs the rates of the genetic improvement of milk production have increased nearly twice in the 1990 as compared to those in the 1970 according to Aleksiev et.al. (1991), Vankov (1978), Vankov et.al. (1982) and Kennedy,(1991). A primary objective of this study was to determine coefficients of variability, heritability, genetic and phenotypic correlation between indicators of milk productivity in relation to milk yield and fat content, butter fat and protein content in milk. Heritability, genetic and phenotype correlation of milk productivity and protein content in milk of Bulgarian Black and White cows White were estimated, using the linear statistical model (Harvey 1977).

Genetic and phenotypic parameters and responses in index component traits for breeds of sheep selected for lean tissue growth

The aims of this experiment were to estimate genetic and phenotypic parameters, and responses in vivo for selection index component traits, i.e. live weight, fat depth and muscle depth. Performance data sets were available from lean tissue growth selection experiments for Border Leicester (n=613), Coopworth (n=1711) and Dorset Down (n=820) ram flocks and from a Corriedale progeny testing ram flock (n=722). Lean tissue growth flocks had been selected for an increased aggregate breeding value incorporating predicted lean and fat weights with positive and negative economic weightings, respectively, over the period 1986–1992 inclusive. Estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters and responses in index component traits were derived from multivariate AIREML analyses, fitting an individual animal model including animal as a random variable, birth rank, year and age of dam fitted as fixed effects and age at measurement as a covariable. Rates of response for each index component were obtained by regressing best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) breeding values (BV) on time. Index component traits had medium to high (0.20±0.04 to 0.45±0.08) heritability estimates. Estimates of genetic and phenotypic correlations were predominantly low to moderate (0.20–0.60), although a few were high (>0.60). Live weight (+0.24±0.09kg per year) and muscle depth (+0.05±0.02mm per year) increased and fat depth (−0.03±0.02mm per year) decreased under selection. Responses, adjusted for animal size were greatest in fat depth (−0.90±0.63% per year) and least in muscle depth (+0.18±0.06% per year) with live weight being intermediate (+0.45±0.12% per year). Although not significantly different (P>0.05), estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters and responses to selection varied between breeds. Variation in genetic and phenotypic parameters led to variation in predicted responses for lean and fat weights between breeds, suggesting that in order to design more optimal breeding programmes breed specific parameters should be used.

The vulnerability of the Australian beef industry to impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus) under climate change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.

Tests of hypotheses on the adaptive value of an extended male phase in the hermaphroditic shrimp Lysmata wurdemanni (Caridea: Hippolytidae).

Hypotheses on delayed sex change in the protandric simultaneous hermaphrodite Lysmata wurdemanni were tested with observations from population samples, mating experiments, and experiments on sex change under optimal and suboptimal breeding conditions. Male-phase individuals (MPs) much larger than the minimum size of sex change were most frequent in a natural population from fall through early spring. The hypothesis was tested that some MPs delay sex change to the simultaneous hermaphrodite female-phase (FP) because MPs are more competitive in obtaining copulations with parturial FPs than are FPs mating as males (MFPs). In different experiments, parturial FPs were maintained with two potential male mating partners (large MP and MFP, small MP and MFP, large MP and small MP) through the parturial molt and spawning; activities were recorded with time-lapse video. MFPs gained the single copulation with the parturial FP as frequently as MPs, large or small, but large MPs copulated with more FPs than small MPs. The hypothesis of FP reversion to large MP was tested experimentally and rejected. Rate of change of MP to FP was much lower in large MPs maintained under suboptimal (fall/winter) than optimal (spring/summer) breeding conditions. The results presented here suggest that the occurrence of large MPs from the fall to early spring is better explained by abiotic proximate factors related to breeding than by socially mediated sex change in different demographic environments.