Opposition Parties Research Articles

Do Turkey's 2024 Local Elections Signal the End of Erdoğan's Reign?

AbstractThe unexpected victory of the opposition Republican People's Party in Turkey's March 31 municipal elections raises intriguing questions about the future of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan after more than two decades of his rule. Just 10 months after Erdoğan won a new term, a significant portion of the electorate voted against him and his Justice and Development Party, marking his largest defeat ever. The president acknowledged the significance of the defeat, describing the results as “not only a loss of votes but also a loss of soul and blood.” This article analyzes the factors that drove the outcome and contends that this was more a protest of the Turkish strongman than an approval of opposition policies. The people voted against Erdoğan's arrogance and authoritarian style, as well as the poor quality of his party's candidates; the worsening economy, especially for retirees; and perceptions of a deteriorating justice system. The main opposition party also benefited from skillful leadership less than a year after its defeat in the presidential election. While the outcome of the 2024 vote signals a desire for democratic governance and accountability, it remains uncertain at this early stage whether this is a temporary deviation.

Shocking Experience: How Politicians’ Issue Strategies Are Shaped by an External Shock During Campaigns

In this article, we focus on how the issue strategies of political leaders are influenced by an external shock that completely changes the public agenda of the election campaign. The 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election campaign is a unique case to investigate this question, as Russia attacked Ukraine six weeks before the election day (April 3, 2022). The study aims to investigate whether the campaign’s issue strategies changed due to this shocking event, and if so, what are the main directions of the changes. The examination relies on a manual content analysis of Hungarian party leaders’ Facebook posts during the campaign, covering both the period before and after the outbreak of the war. First, based on the literature, we distinguish between different issue strategies such as issue ownership, issue stealing, “riding the wave,” and multi-issue and issue-poor strategies. We categorize political leaders’ issue strategies based on their issue focus before and after the external shock. Our results show that while war, economy, and foreign policy play a greater role in the communication of most political actors after February 24, there are remarkable differences between political actors. The communication of opposition party leaders seems to persist with their original issue strategies (issue-poor and multi-issue campaigns), while Viktor Orbán clearly changed his focus immediately after the invasion of Ukraine and ran a “riding the wave” campaign with a focus on war.

Feminist movement and suffrage: how women obtained the right to vote in Bolivia (1920–1952)

ABSTRACT With its proclamation of universal suffrage in 1952, Bolivia fits into Samuel Huntington’s “second short wave of democratization” (1943–1963). In 1952, all women and men gained the right to vote, marking a significant step towards democratization by including previously excluded groups. Literate women had already obtained municipal voting rights in 1945 under a populist government aiming for broader political participation. However, women first voted in 1947, after the oligarchy overthrew this government in 1946 and sought to regain power by repressing the opposition parties and previously marginalized sectors. Unexpectedly, it supported women’s suffrage for national elections by the late 1940s. What prompted various political parties to support women’s suffrage in the late 1940s? This paper explores how women in Bolivia gained the right to vote and what role the feminist movement and power struggles played in obtaining women’s suffrage. Beginning in the 1920s with a study of the emergence of the feminist movement and its evolution during the decades of the 1930s (the Chaco War) and 1940s, the paper culminates with an assessment of feminism’s impact on public opinion as well as the importance of the growing politicization of women in the 1940s.

A tale of two crises: affective polarization in Greece

Affective polarization, the strong feeling of animosity toward the supporters of the opposite party is rising in Europe. Several studies have examined the impact of ideological extremity and partisanship as a social identity on the rise of affective polarization. However, the impact of policy preferences on affective polarization remains relatively unexplored. I am at filling this gap by examining how preferences towards measures taken at addressing both the economic and the health crises impact affective polarization. Using newly collected data from Greece, a country with historically high levels of affective polarization, the analysis reveals that both policies have an impact of affective polarization but there are asymmetries on how policy preferences influence it. For the supporters of the governing conservative party, affective polarization appears to be policy-driven, whereas for the supporters of the opposition, the populist left-wing party SYRIZA, it is predominantly ideology-driven. Interestingly, the supporters of the governing party continue to align with the pro-memorandum stance even in the absence of an actual memorandum.

Leading the Moon to Mars Program: James Bridenstine as NASA administrator 2018–2021

Large-scale, long-term scientific and technological programs face many hurdles and barriers on the way from initiation to completion. This is especially true for huge-multi-billion space endeavors, such as Artemis, NASA's Moon to Mars venture. Such programs traverse a number of presidencies and congresses. Among the most critical factors in program success or failure is the performance of NASA Administrators. While typically in office only part of the time the program endures, their tenures can be pivotal. Consider the case of James Bridenstine who served in the tumultuous time of Donald Trump. His record illuminates how a NASA Administrator with a political style can maneuver to a program's advantage, often in spite of environmental turmoil. While the full story of Artemis is yet to be written, it seems clear that Bridenstine, overall, left the program with a more secure political momentum than when he arrived. While he could not achieve all he wished, especially internally, he set Artemis on a sufficiently sound trajectory that his successor, under a different president of the opposite party, could maintain and build on Bridenstine's legacy. This positive hand-off was largely unanticipated since Bridenstine came to office with low expectations. His actions to secure the Moon to Mars program thus merits reflection.

A Mathematical Model of an Electoral Process and Predicting of Outcome

We developed and analysed a mathematical model to study the dynamics of an electoral process and predict the outcome in Nigeria with three political parties as major actors. We model the ruling party (P1); major opposition party (P2) and minority opposition parties (P3). The model includes party campaigners of the three political parties and a class of eligible voters. The model also incorporates the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), electoral observers, judiciary, security personnel and thugs. The influx of voters into the system is determined by the registration rate of voter cards. The model’s interest lies in the measure of positive influence that the party campaigners who eligible voters to join their party. With this, the model mirrors election’s outcome and the movement of voters between the three groups of political parties involved. The model has proven that the pattern of election’s outcome for each political party is affected by the defection of party members and lack of policy consistency. We determine the equilibria analytically and discuss the stability of the system. Numerical simulations are graphed in combination with curve fitting to compare each party’s performances over the years. The result shows that no political party remains in power steadily from 2007 to 2019. Thus, the prediction of elections outcome to the political space of any region in Nigeria depends on political party structures and voters’ decisions.

Are women politicians outperformed by men? The impact of gender on legislative activity in Japan

AbstractObjectivesGiven the distinct political landscape of Japan, this study aims to explore the impact of gender on the parliamentary behavior of Japanese legislators.MethodsUtilizing a self‐constructed data set covering the 44th–48th Diets (2005–2021), this study examines the individual‐level parliamentary activities of male and female legislators in Japan. Key metrics analyzed include the frequency of speeches delivered in both plenary and committee sessions, alongside the submission of memorandums to the Diet.ResultsThe findings indicate that on the whole, gender exerts only a minimal effect on parliamentary activities. However, upon closer examination of members belonging to opposition parties during specific time periods, female legislators emerge as more active in terms of questioning and memorandum submission compared to their male counterparts.ConclusionThis study unveils a noteworthy trend wherein women legislators in Japan demonstrate equal or greater engagement in parliamentary activities than their male counterparts. These findings underscore the importance of exploring gender dynamics within political systems beyond the Western sphere. Moreover, they emphasize the necessity for ongoing research into gender representation and participation within Japan's political arena.

The political fallout of air pollution

This paper studies the effect of air pollution on voting outcomes. We use data from 60 federal and state elections in Germany from 2000 to 2018 and exploit plausibly exogenous fluctuations in ambient air pollution within counties across election dates. Higher air pollution on election day shifts votes away from incumbent parties and toward opposition parties. An increase in the concentration of particulate matter (PM10) by 10 [Formula: see text]g/m[Formula: see text]-around two within-county SDs-reduces the vote share of incumbent parties by two percentage points, which is equivalent to 4% of the mean vote share. We generalize these findings by documenting similar effects with data from a weekly opinion poll and a large-scale panel survey. We provide further evidence that poor air quality leads to more negative emotions such as anger, worry, and unhappiness, which, in turn, may reduce the support for the political status quo. Overall, these results suggest that poor air quality affects decision-making in the population at large, including consequential political decisions.

Peer-supplied credibility labels as an online misinformation intervention

Misinformation is rampant on social media, and existing platform-supplied interventions offer limited effectiveness. In this study, we examine the effectiveness of credibility labels that dispute the accuracy of information when they are supplied by one’s peers at different levels of relationship closeness and political agreement. We investigate four variants of these labels using a 2 (strong vs. weak tie strength) x 2 (high vs. low political agreement) between-subjects factorial design. We find that credibility disputes raised by one’s co-partisans (peers with similar political beliefs) significantly reduced belief in misinformation, irrespective of one’s relationship closeness with the peer. Our findings also reveal that in contrast to prior literature, a peer’s knowledgeability may be more potent than trustworthiness in causing belief change, and that trust can sometimes manifest even in the credibility judgement of distant peers, when perceived to have expertise or a fact-checking tendency. We further highlight the dual nature of these credibility labels, discussing scenarios in which disputes by hyper-partisan members of the opposite party can enforce belief in misinformation. We conclude by discussing how peer-supplied credibility disputes can benefit social media, especially echo chambers with high political homophily, where disputes by a co-partisan may be met with less resistance and persuade significantly reduced belief in fake news.

Parliamentary Opposition Parties in Georgia’s Foreign Policy under a Hybrid Regime in 2012–2020

Abstract Based on three case studies, this paper examines the influence of parliamentary opposition parties on Georgia’s foreign policy as a country with a hybrid regime. The study covers an eight-year period from the start of the Georgian Dream party’s rule in 2012 to the end of 2020 when pro-Western opposition forces were strong and the government pursued a “normalization” policy with Russia. An analysis of the cases reveals that the parliamentary opposition has leverage in foreign policy to put pressure on the government. Yet the case studies show that the opposition’s influence on foreign policy was manifested mainly by non-parliamentary means, particularly in mobilizing international actors and shaping public opinion on specific foreign policy issues.

Electoral campaigning in a hybrid media environment

In the current hybrid media environment, politicians have manifold opportunities to be in contact with voters during elections. Legacy news media still constitute an important campaign tool for politi- cians, but a range of social media have gained ground in electoral campaigning over the last decades as well. Against this backdrop, the aim of this study is to shed further light on politicians’ campaign practices in a hybrid communication environment, and whether the introduction of social media have introduced new dynamics into election campaigns. The study does so through a case study of Dan- ish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and opposition party leader Alex Vanopslagh’s social media campaigns and online news pres- ence during the 2022 national election. The study finds that Freder- iksen was more in the news during the election than Vanopslagh, but that social media was central in both campaigns. However, Van- opslagh was on a broader set of social media and to a greater extent capitalised on the platform affordances than Frederiksen.

Paradox of optimism: opposition coordination against autocratic incumbents in Turkey’s 2019 and 2023 elections

ABSTRACT In the 2019 local and 2023 general elections, Turkey’s opposition parties joined forces in pursuit of a common objective: to oust autocratic incumbents and democratize the political system. While they achieved noteworthy successes in 2019, replicating these gains in the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections proved elusive. This study reveals that coordinating opposition efforts becomes more challenging during general elections, particularly when a charismatic presidential candidate, capable of fostering synergy among opposition factions and voters, is absent. Additionally, when opposition parties span the ideological spectrum, crafting a unified campaign around a shared manifesto becomes more intricate. The resulting atmosphere of uncertainty is exacerbated further in the absence of decisive leadership. Most importantly, the research highlights a paradox: as optimism for electoral victory grows, parties become more inclined to form alliances but less willing to nominate a strong leader, due to concerns about power-sharing overshadowing electoral success. This paradox diminishes the chances of opposition victory.

Opposition party institutionalisation in authoritarian settings: the case of Uganda

ABSTRACT This article analyses the process of institutionalisation among Ugandan opposition parties and highlights the tensions at play between party institutionalisation and broader party goals in authoritarian settings. Based upon qualitative research conducted between 2016 and 2023, we offer a historical analysis of the steps towards institutionalisation – understood as a process, rather than a state – taken by two Ugandan parties: the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and the Democratic Party (DP). Uganda features historical parties such as the DP that were severely weakened by the ‘Movement era’ but endured despite losing ground, and newer opposition forces, such as the FDC, that proved relatively stronger despite being divided over the question of building party structures, thus providing an interesting case study. Ultimately, this article demonstrates the complex, and at times conflicting, implications of institutionalisation for opposition parties’ ability to achieve their objectives in an authoritarian regime.

Bangladesh in 2022 and 2023

Following the semicentennial celebrations and a global pandemic, Bangladesh seemed well on track to achieve the promises of furthering both democracy and development. But while development was visible in the completion of spectacular infrastructural projects, democracy continued to suffer, as the government plans to host the 12th parliamentary elections without the participation of the main opposition party. The war in Ukraine and a depleting foreign exchange reserve severely affected the country’s economic profile, while a dengue outbreak once more revealed the inadequacies of its public health system.

Burundi: Opposition Party Leader Expelled

Burundi: Opposition Party Leader Expelled

Political Campaigns and Social Media: The Lok Sabha Elections 2019

Abstract: In the 2019 Indian Lok Sabha elections, political campaigns underwent a major transformation due to the widespread use of social media. This research examines the relationship between social media and political campaigns in the 2019 elections, emphasising important trends, challenges, and consequences. Over 900 million eligible voters participated in the 2019 elections, making it the largest democratic election in the world. Political parties and candidates realised the potential of social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and WhatsApp to reach voters, influence public opinion, and garner support. The political parties across India, irrespective of national, state or local status, leveraged the social media platforms to their benefit and reaped the most out of their presence on social media. Major differences reflected through the use of social media to campaign and bolster respective parties' election agenda, spreading their words of promise of welfare for the citizens while trying to reach the farthest corner of the country. The larger use of the same could be seen in case of national parties like that of Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC), while they leveraged the use of social media to strengthen their presence amongst the voters, the smaller parties like the state parties and local parties used the social media but to limited extent as, in most of the cases the presence of the larger parties could be felt more. By using targeted advertising, data analysis, and engaging content, the political parties’ social media campaigns could effectively spread their message and connect with larger audiences. With impactful visuals, memorable slogans, and interactive content, the parties successfully promoted their message of welfare of the citizens, nationalism, growth, and cultural heritage, finding support among the voter base throughout India. The political parties in India, including national parties like Indian National Congress, Trinamool Congress faced challenges in competing with the ruling party's digital presence. Despite using social media for outreach, the opposition parties couldn't match the BJP's effective communication and failed to address issues like economic troubles, inequality, and unemployment. The 2019 election was also plagued by fake news, misinformation, and divisive content on social media, which threatened the electoral process. The unchecked spread of misinformation and sensationalist content on social media has intensified societal divisions, eroded trust, and lowered the calibre of public debate. This raises concerns about the detrimental effects of social media on democratic principles and institutions. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections highlight the urgent need for increased transparency, responsibility, and regulation in political campaigns on social media. Combating misinformation, protecting the fairness of elections, and promoting digital understanding are crucial for safeguarding the integrity of democratic processes and fostering informed voter participation.

Partisan Bias in Episodes of Political Violence

Imagine two incidents of political violence. In the first, you share political affiliation with the victim. In the second, they reside in the opposite party. How would this minor change – a shifting label, the difference of a word – impact your reaction? This article offers empirical insight through an experiment: U.S. participants read a mock college controversy, where a student sent death threats to, and doxed, a professor. The treatment varied whether the perpetrator described the professor as a Democrat, Republican, or used otherwise non-descript (e.g., “political”) adjectives. A posttreatment survey then measured respondents’ discrete emotions, the penalties they preferred the student receive, and their partisan group identity strength. Participants who read about violence against a copartisan victim showed a statistically significant increase in preferred penalty severity. But violence against an outparty victim mirrored the control, with subjects reacting as if they didn’t know the political affiliation of anyone involved. Posttreatment measures also demonstrated the potential for anxiety (but not anger or partisan strength) to mediate this underlying partisan bias.

Charter–manifesto congruence as a signal for issue salience: democratic innovations within political parties in Hungary

ABSTRACT This article proposes a proxy for issue salience via studying congruence between parties’ organizational structure and the policies they promote to their voters. This charter-manifesto congruence, i.e. institutionalizing the same democratic innovations at the intra-party level and advocating for their adoption at the national level, is particularly useful to demarcate party profiles in dominant party systems and electoral autocracies. To demonstrate how such congruence can be measured, we analyse the credibility of the commitments made by opposition parties in Hungary to a variety of democratic innovations. Drawing on novel survey data, we further substantiate our argument by showing high support for these innovations among party members and voters. The analysis identifies gender quotas as the most congruent innovation. Our longitudinal research design also reveals a recent breakthrough of e-democracy in party manifestos. We then discuss how preferences for various innovations are potentially shaped by membership size, party founders’ political socialization or organizational learning. At the normative level, the analysis suggests that some forms of democratic innovations are better suited for intra-party organizations than for party manifestos. These implications might be relevant for those committed to promoting deliberation, gender equality and (re-)engagement of the youth in politics.

Partisanship and Political Socialization in Electoral Autocracies

In electoral autocracies, why do some people actively support political parties while others choose to not get involved in politics? Further, what differentiates those who choose to support the ruling party from those who support the opposition? Existing research has proposed that people support ruling parties primarily to extract economic benefits from the state while people support opposition parties primarily for ideological reasons. However, we lack a unified theory of partisanship, leading to indeterminant predictions about the individual predictors of partisanship. This article instead considers the social nature of partisanship in authoritarian regimes. Qualitative data collected in Cameroon highlight different processes of political socialization in an autocratic context, and data from an original survey show not only that partisan homogeneity in social networks is highly predictive of individual-level partisanship but also, at least to some extent, that partisanship can be contagious through the process of socialization within these networks.

Power Interplay Between Executive and Legislative in the Formation of Undang-Undang Nomor. 3 Tahun 2022 Concerning Ibu Kota Negara

The main objective of this research is to discuss the power interplay between the executive and legislature in the formation of Law no. 3 of 2022 concerning Ibu Kota Negara. With a focus on the interaction of power between the two institutions in the process of forming the IKN Law. This research uses qualitative methods and is explained using the power cube theory by John Gaventa. In the formation of this law, most of the factions in the DPR RI out of a total of 9, only one opposition party refused to accept and approve the discussion of the IKN Bill. With the position of the government which has a large coalition (grand coalition) with membership in parliament reaching 74%. It can be seen that the role of the executive is more dominant than the role of the legislature in determining the direction of decisions on this Law, namely by conditioning the decisions taken by party factions that are members of supporting government supporters to fully support them.