Opposition Parties Research Articles

Party system fragmentation and fractionalization in Turkey under the AKP's competitive authoritarian rule

ABSTRACT How does the political party system fragment and fractionalize during the episodes of democratic backsliding and autocratization? Current scholarship demonstrates that parties have become more pronounced due to the competitive nature of elections and the low-level institutionalization of authoritarian regimes, without explicitly laying out the causal mechanisms. Through an analysis of Turkey since the mid-2010s and by using both the institutional and sociological schools, this article examines how the number of parties in competitive authoritarian regimes significantly increases. The alteration of electoral laws and growing authoritarianism inadvertently benefit opposition parties, as democratic decline fosters new political cleavages, resulting in splits in established parties. Additionally, with the incumbent’s media power and its influence over state institutions, new parties are encouraged to split from major opposition parties by bolstering intra-party splits.

The Metaphoricity of Corruption: Exploring Ghana’s Electoral Manifestos under the Fourth Republic

This study investigated the metaphoricity of the noun “corruption” in the manifestos of Ghana’s two leading parties: the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). The study explored how metaphors have shaped the political narrative on corruption from 1996 to 2024 through the use of Conceptual Metaphor Theory (CMT). Data on the word corruption from 14 manifestos were analysed for its metaphorical expressions based on the imprints of the preceding verb and other collocates. The findings revealed that corruption is metaphorically framed as war, disease, bushfire, business, and commodity. Opposition parties used these metaphors more frequently to critique incumbent governments and influence voters. The study highlights the strategic use of metaphors in shaping public perceptions of corruption, suggesting that metaphorical language serves as a powerful rhetorical tool in political discourse that influences electoral outcomes and governance narratives. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on political discourse by demonstrating how metaphorical language shapes the public’s perception of corruption. Keywords: Corruption, Ghana, Manifesto, Metaphor, NDC, NPP

Regime Type and Data Manipulation: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Context: This study examines whether autocratic governments are more likely than democratic governments to manipulate health data. The COVID-19 pandemic presents a unique opportunity for examining this question because of its global impact. Methods: Three distinct indicators of COVID-19 data manipulation were constructed for nearly all sovereign states. Each indicator was then regressed on democracy and controls for unintended misreporting. A machine learning approach was then used to determine whether any of the specific features of democracy are more predictive of manipulation. Findings: Democracy was found to be negatively associated with all three measures of manipulation, even after running a battery of robustness checks. Absence of opposition party autonomy and free and fair elections were found to be the most important predictors of deliberate undercounting. Conclusions: The manipulation of data in autocracies denies citizens the opportunity to protect themselves against health risks, hinders the ability of international organizations and donors to identify effective policies, and makes it difficult for scholars to assess the impact of political institutions on population health. These findings suggest that health advocates and scholars should use alternative methods to estimate health outcomes in countries where opposition parties lack autonomy or must participate in uncompetitive elections.

Political instability and academic achievement in Nairobi County, Kenya

The researcher investigated relationship between political instability and academic achievement in Nairobi County, Kenya. The objectives of the study were to examine relationship between civil unrest and government- oppositional group conflicts, and academic achievement in Nairobi County, Kenya. The study employed correlation research design. The study sample size was 331 respondents comprising 52 teachers and 279 learners selected using simple random and purposive sampling techniques respectively. The data collection tools were questionnaires for both learners and teachers. Researcher ascertained research tools validity by getting relevant information on specific tools from experts and professionals in ministry of education. The reliability of tools was determined by cronbanch alpha co-efficient; which computed to 0.73. The descriptive statistics was presented in frequencies and percentages; while inferential statistics was analyzed using regression statistic technique. The study reviewed that civil unrest has significant relationship with academic achievement in Nairobi County, Kenya. The ggovernment-oppositional group conflict has significant relationship with academic achievement in Nairobi County, Kenya. Following study findings, the researcher concluded that there was significant relationship between political instability and academic achievement in Nairobi County, Kenya. The researcher therefore recommended that ministry of education should actively involve ministry of defense to counter civil unrest in the country to minimize cases of poor academic achievements. Government should collaborate with opposition party to reduce cases of government-opposition group conflicts. The study may form bases for further studies in related field.

Soft as wool? Media representations of the Zimbabwean president Emmerson Mnangagwa after the 2018 post-election violence

ABSTRACT Emmerson Mnangagwa’s ascendency to power in November 2017 was viewed from within and beyond Zimbabwe as the country’s opportunity to correct leadership deficiency brought about by Robert Mugabe. His leadership was meant to bring national socio-economic political development in Zimbabwe. Under Mugabe, Zimbabwe experienced a long period of despotic rule. This present study argues that Mnangagwa’s attempts to rebrand himself and the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front ruling party is marred with controversy. The study is an analysis of Mnangagwa’s selected responses to criticism during the 2018 post presidential election violence mainly against the opposition party, Movement for Democratic Change Alliance. Data was collected from purposively selected articles from the state controlled The Herald and privately owned NewsDay. Through qualitative content and Critical Discourse Analysis, the study examines if these responses reveal Mnangagwa as a reformist. Guided by the branding theory, the study unpacks similarities and dissimilarities in Mnangagwa and Mugabe’s leadership styles. Zimbabwe suffered global isolation due to complex factors such as disputed elections and land grabs. This study opens new avenues in understanding Mnangagwa’s rule in his ‘New Dispensation.’

Deployed to the Hill: Military Experience and Legislative Behavior in Congress

Congress is more polarized than ever. At the same time, there are fewer military veterans serving in Congress than ever before. Candidates with military experience, along with their supporters, argue that electing more veterans could help reduce dysfunction and gridlock. They claim that military values, such as duty and teamwork, translate into differences in legislative behavior. But are veteran lawmakers more effective than those without military experience? Are they more bipartisan? Using House data from the 104th to 116th Congresses (1995–2021), I examine the extent to which military experience influences a lawmaker’s ability to legislate and engage in bipartisan behavior. I find that veteran lawmakers are more effective at advancing consequential legislation. Additionally, veterans appear more willing to collaborate with members of the opposite party, especially in recent Congresses. These effects are particularly evident among those who served on active duty. I conclude by considering the implications of these findings for maintaining healthy civil-military relations in America.

No coalition is an island: how pre-electoral coalitions at the national-level shape local elections

ABSTRACT The rise of populist parties has affected the structure of electoral competition on the national level. To evaluate the depth of such changes, this paper examines whether pre-electoral coalitions (PEC) that contested the 2021 Czech general election aiming to replace the populist ANO in the government were replicated at the local level. Using the probit multilevel model estimated on the dyads, the results indicate that local pre-electoral coalitions were more likely to form if they were based on two (of three) pre-electoral coalitions that contested the 2021 general election. The strength of the populist party, however, does not increase the probability of anti-populist PECs. Instead, parties in local opposition are more likely to coalesce together, no matter which party governs. In addition, forming PEC in the Senate election is associated with a higher probability of forming the same PEC in local election.

Discourse Analysis of Conflict and Resolution in History Textbooks: Representations of the Referendum in Indonesia

This study explores how Indonesian history textbooks represent conflict and its resolution with a focus on the theme of East Timor. The research applies the methodology of Historical Discourse Analysis, examining various elements of representation, including nomination, predication, argumentation, perspective, and intensification. The primary objects of study are two Indonesian history textbooks that are currently used in schools. The results show that textbook I adopts a pragmatic and binary approach, framing the Indonesian government as the protagonist that seeks to include East Timor as part of its national territory. In this narrative, the East Timorese people are portrayed as the antagonists who resist the integration process with Indonesia. This approach reflects a polarized view of the conflict, emphasizing the roles of both parties in opposition. On the other hand, Textbook II takes a more constructive and reconciliation-oriented approach. It presents a vision for future cooperation and understanding between Indonesia and East Timor, highlighting possibilities for peaceful resolution and long-term collaboration between the two countries. Despite these different approaches, this study identifies an ongoing challenge in the writing of Indonesian history textbooks, which can be termed as "schizo-history." This concept refers to the paradox faced by historians in balancing efforts to reconstruct historical events with the anxiety surrounding the potential impact of those narratives on national unity. The study argues that Indonesian historians must continue to seek alternative methodologies that can address these tensions while providing more nuanced and balanced representations of historical events. This research contributes to broader discussions on the role of history textbooks in shaping national identity and calls for further investigation into the challenges and opportunities in writing history textbooks in post-conflict contexts.

Research on the Reform and Transformation of Singapore's Political Election System and Political System

Singapore is an important country in Southeast Asia, which has been established for less than 60 years. In the early days of its establishment, its survival situation was very difficult. But under the struggle of the People's Action Party (PAP) led by Lee Kuan Yew and the "founding generation" of the people, Singapore has harmoniously coexisted with different ethnic and religious groups and has forcefully embarked on a rapid development path. According to data released by the World Bank, as of 2022, Singapore's per capita GDP has reached over 82000 US dollars and has been steadily increasing for many years. The People's Action Party has won every election since its founding and has been in power ever since. However, as the public increasingly enjoys the oversight and balance of the government by the opposition in parliament, the party's support rate for the election has gradually declined, and its vote share in the most recent election has dropped to 60%. The rapid development of Singapore since its founding cannot be separated from the continuity policies implemented by the fixed ruling party, which attract a large amount of foreign capital investment. However, the people's call for democracy forces the ruling party to face strong opposition in the upcoming general election. For the ruling party, more support from voters for the opposition party has entered an irreversible path. This article will explore the path of political system reform in Singapore.

Educational Metaphor in the Polish press: a perspective on presenting the political situation in Poland at the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war

The following paper investigates the topic of educational metaphors about the Russia–Ukraine War in Polish press articles. Educational metaphor relates to the use of concepts connected with schooling or teaching in order to describe other concepts. The research material is composed of texts published after 24 February 2022 in the following newspapers: Do Rzeczy, Gazeta Polska, Polityka, and Krytyka Polityczna. This article aims to present one of the metaphorical mappings together with its critical analysis with the use of the conceptual metaphor theory (Лакофф, Джонсон 2004) and critical metaphor analysis (Charteris-Black 2004). According to the research, the trichotomy which includes the Polish Government, the opposition parties, and the Polish society may be distinguished in the Polish press. Amidst these oppositions, the metaphorical mapping is discerned, according to which the war is understood as the teacher, the politicians and society as the students, and the help offered to Ukraine is interpreted as the examination. Assessment of the actions undertaken by the Government, the opposition parties and the society has been the subject of the ideological and political profile of a particular magazine.

Political parties and Russia’s escalation of the war in Ukraine: consequences for left-wing parties in Moldova

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had a significant impact on Moldova, particularly due to its geographic proximity to Ukraine. Although Moldova has long balanced relationships between Russia and the European Union, the war prompted a re-evaluation of its geopolitical stance. In order to better understand domestic political party contestation of foreign policies, this article analyses Moldovan parliamentary debates between February 2022 and December 2023. The analysis focuses on the arguments used by members of the left-wing political parties that had previously adopted a more pro-Russian stance for the country’s foreign policy. The findings show reduced political contestation after Russia’s full-scale invasion with the left-wing parties, avoiding articulating clear positions on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Compared to the clear stance of the ruling PAS party, the opposition parties were inconsistent in their views on Russia and the EU, often ambiguous about Russia and divided on EU integration.

Limited Congruence: Citizens’ Attitudes and Party Rhetoric About Referendums and Deliberative Practices

Both citizens and political parties refer to novel participatory practices in the contemporary crisis of representative democracy. Survey data indicate a growing demand for such practices within the electorate, while political parties have also begun discussing them more frequently. However, previous studies on citizens’ attitudes and parties’ discourse on democratic innovations rarely speak to each other. It remains unclear whether citizens’ attitudes and parties’ discourse are congruent. This article seeks to address this gap in the literature and analyses the extent to which political parties reflect citizens’ attitudes towards referendums and citizens’ deliberation in their manifestos. We cover 15 political parties in Germany and the UK. Our analysis uses party manifesto data between 2010 and 2024, and data from surveys conducted on national representative samples. Our findings reveal that political parties and citizens rarely have congruent approaches towards referendums and deliberative practices. People’s enthusiasm about referendums is hardly reflected in parties’ rhetoric, but the latter reacts gradually to the public appetite for deliberation. There are visible differences between opposition parties and those in government.

Cultural Censorship and Institutional Trust in Africa

What are the consequences of cultural censorship on trust? Previous literature on institutional and political trust informs this article which extends the work to consider the importance of artistic spaces for shaping political attitudes. These spaces may allow individuals to form trust relationships with each other. The importance of these cultural spaces is highlighted when, in both democracies and autocracies, we observed cultural censorship. While the rationale for censorship may differ across regime types, some of the effects look strikingly similar. Using survey data from the Afrobarometer and measures of censorship from Varieties of Democracy, this article suggests that trust in executive and legislative institutions among regime supporters is increased, when autocracies engage in cultural censorship. Additionally, this article argues that trust in the ruling party increases and trust in the opposition party decreases with more cultural censorship in both autocracies and democracies. Taken together this descriptive initial test of the theory, consistent with the theory presented, offers additional insights about how authoritarian regimes might use cultural censorship to maintain system support, but also suggest reasons why even democratic regimes can be motivated to engage in censorship for political gain.

Social Discontent and Voting Behaviour in South Africa’s 2024 General Elections: The Transition from One-party Dominance to a Multi-party Coalition

The main aim of this paper was to analyse South Africa’s transition from one-party dominance to a multi-party coalition government, with specific reference to the 2024 general elections in South Africa. Through the use of secondary data collection, the paper critically analysed the nexus between social discontent and voting behaviour in South Africa’s 2024 general elections. Using rational choice theory, the paper argued that voting behaviour in the 2024 elections was influenced by people’s choice to vote for a political party that promised to improve their welfare by addressing existing socio-economic challenges. The study found that the African National Congress (ANC), which has been a single dominant party in national government for 30 years, has failed to address pressing challenges that cause social discontent such as poor service delivery, poverty, unemployment, inequality, corruption, and the energy crisis. As a result, the party fell below the threshold to govern on its own, leading to the formation of a multi-party coalition government with former opposition parties named the Government of National Unity (GNU). The paper concluded that parties that form multi-party coalition government should prioritise people’s interests such as mitigating existing social discontents, because failure to do so shall influence voting behaviour in the upcoming election cycles, which might affect their electoral support as was the case with the ANC’s decline of support post-2024 general elections. This study anticipates making a valuable contribution to the existing body of knowledge by offering practical insights into the nexus between social discontent and voting behaviour in South Africa’s elections. In addition, the study provides recommendations on how the newly formed government of national unity can mitigate the existing social discount among electorates. Keywords: Multi-Party Coalition Government, One-Party Dominance, Social Discontents, Voting Behaviour, South African 2024 General Election

Beyond acceptable criticism

Abstract This paper utilizes the concept of debasement to examine politicians’ rhetoric in Japan. It focuses on 3,233 questions posed by opposition party members to Cabinet ministers during the 2023 meetings of the Budget Committee in both houses of the National Diet. The analysis identifies debasement comments, examining the linkage between the use of such language and a list of socio-political variables, including ideological orientation, differences in electoral systems, and previous career occupation. From a cross-cultural perspective, abusive rhetoric in Japan might not seem to be an extreme phenomenon, but because of cultural factors even the use of “mild” invective language indicates a clear intention of politicians to debase the reputation of their counterparts in the parliament.

The Stability of Party Power in Turkey after President Erdogan's Victory in the 2023 Elections

The present research aims to identify the impact of Erdogan's victory on the basic budgets in Turkey and its impact on the opposition parties and the strength of the opposition, as well as on the Turkish economy, as the economic factor played a significant and influential role in the results of the Turkish elections, which led to the rise of the Justice and Development Party with Erdogan's victory. This party has an effect on the political and democratic process in the country. Thus, the investigation includes two axes: the first, political parties in Turkey, and the second, the Turkish elections in 2023 AD.

In defence of democracy: parliamentary opposition and democratic resilience in Poland

ABSTRACT The 2023 electoral victory of Poland's liberal opposition halted democratic backsliding and exemplified democratic resilience. This study provides a novel empirical analysis of discursive strategies used by the main opposition party, Civic Platform/Civic Coalition, in parliamentary speeches on democracy from 2001 to 2020. Using a mixed-method approach with temporally sensitive word embeddings and discourse analysis, we highlight shifts in opposition discourse since 2015 – from radicalisation to a more moderate, focused response addressing key aspects of democratic breakdown – demonstrating an adaptive strategy of democratic resilience.

Book Review: Keeping the red flag flying: The labour party in opposition since 1922

Book Review: Keeping the red flag flying: The labour party in opposition since 1922

Tackling transparency in UK politics: application of large language models to clustering and classification of UK parliamentary divisions

For a healthier democracy in the UK, novel methods of visualising political data are key to improving transparency, and encouraging engagement. The paper proposes a visualisation tool, using Large language models (LLMs), such as GPT3.5 and GPT4, to conduct Natural Language Processing (NLP) in a novel methodology. We investigate partisan voting profiles, specifically of the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat parties along 11 predetermined dimensions, ranging from Immigration and Borders, over Welfare and Social Housing, to European Union and Foreign Affairs. Higher order dimensions reveals shifts in party preference over time, while clear trends of more extreme voting behaviour can be seen across parties between 2016 and 2023. The novel visualisation methodology reveals that voting behaviour has become more polarised along party lines, with Labour becoming more left-wing and Conservatives becoming more right-wing regarding most political topics. Liberal Democrats voting behaviour has typically been those of an opposition party, albeit becoming somewhat more extreme.

Caretaker Conventions in Crisis Times: Dutch Government‐Opposition Dynamics After the Fall of the Government

How does the caretaker status of a government affect party political dynamics in parliament during a crisis? Generally, caretaker governments are not mandated to introduce important policy changes. Yet major crises can demand decisive political action. This article aims to understand the consequences of the caretaker status of the Rutte III government in the Netherlands (after its resignation in January 2021) for government-opposition dynamics during the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. We first analyse party voting behaviour in parliament and then draw on a qualitative text analysis of nine critical parliamentary debates. Surprisingly, we find that differences between mandated and caretaker status have little effect on parliamentary dynamics. Opposition parties with coalition potential are supportive of the government and take on a cooperative tone; opposition parties without coalition potential are not supportive and take on a combative tone and oppose in harsher terms, yet even they barely mention caretaker status. As such, this case provides unique insights into the functioning of caretaker conventions during crises which offer opportunities for new theorising in the undertheorised field of caretaker cabinets and parliaments.