Opposition Candidate Research Articles

ELECTORAL PROCESS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE: CAUSES AND CHARACTERISTICS

The article is devoted to the study of the main causes, mechanisms and patterns of political violence in the context of electoral struggle. It has been found that under conditions of significant competition and uncertainty of election results, political elites may choose illegal tools and strategies to maintain power: violence, bribery, fraud, intimidation, and persecution of opponents. It has been proven that the use of violence during the electoral process can significantly distort the voting results, undermine the legitimacy of the elections, and limit the participation of opposition candidates and voters.It has been determined that electoral violence involves the use of organized physical coercion, repression, intimidation, persecution, and destruction of property before, during, and after elections in order to influence the electoral process, voter behavior, and voting results. Such violence becomes an obstacle to holding democratic, fair, free, and competitive elections, hinders the establishment of consensus between government and opposition forces, and can provoke a large-scale armed conflict. It has been proven that the causes of electoral violence include the participants’ desire to influence voting results, increase their advantage over competitors, intimidate disloyal voters, deprive opposition supporters of the opportunity to vote, delegitimize the electoral process, and discredit the government’s ability to maintain security and the functioning of political institutions. As a result, it was found that political competition, unpredictable election results and ethnic polarization of society increase the likelihood of electoral violence, deep political crisis and armed confrontation, which can have critical consequences for political security and the sustainability of democracy.

THE INSURRECTIONIST PLAYBOOK: JAIR BOLSONARO AND THE NATIONAL CONGRESS OF BRAZIL

In this paper we unpack the 2022 Brazilian Presidential campaign marked by multiple claims of electoral fraud and support for a coup d’état by supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro. We identify the narrative frames underpinning the insurrectionist playbook by analyzing Bolsonaro’s statements during the presidential campaign. We subsequently test the penetration of this playbook on members of the Brazilian National Congress during the campaign trail and the transition of power to the opposition candidate, when pro-Bolsonaro protesters attempted to overthrow the Federal Government. Our analyses lend support to the hypothesis that the coup d’état was not successful due to the dwindling support beyond the hard-core Bolsonaro base. Our results also show that the insurrectionist playbook, largely centered on the blueprint of false claims of electoral fraud, can be monitored through the public statements of elected officials. We conclude with a discussion of our findings and recommendations for future research.

Thorns in the side: Strategies of populist parties against local public administrations

AbstractThe success of populist parties in national elections puts pressure on political leaders and their administrations, both at the central and sub‐national levels. This paper explores the political tensions between two administrative levels—a central level governed by a populist party, and the city level headed by a liberal party—and the strategies populists use to challenge local political leaders and their city administrations. This paper analyzes three case studies: Prague, Warsaw, and Budapest. In all three cities, opposition candidates are visible challengers to the populist parties in government. The results show that city administrations face increasing tasks, cuts in budget transfers, higher scrutiny from central government, and administrative bottlenecks.

Presidential candidates nobody wants?

AbstractIn a nationally representative study, we explore the public's views of the 2016 presidential nominees. Current measures generally focus on approval of given candidates with closed‐ended questions, but much can be learned by soliciting the public's unconstrained candidate preferences—not only in the direction of how they feel, but the depth of their views and who they really want to see in office. Employing open‐ended questions, we find that more than 75% of the voting public preferred an option other than what was offered. Even when constraining choices to politicians, the Democratic and Republican nominees were not preferred by the majority of the public, and this held true when restricting the analyses to partisans only. We further asked voters to express, in their own words, what they thought of the two candidates for president. The majority of the public described both candidates in negative terms. They spoke with deep disdain for the opposition's candidate, as well as their own party's candidate. The results add support to the view that US primary elections are failing to produce candidates who represent the public's interests and signal the potential for further instability in US government.

The Insurrectionist Playbook: Jair Bolsonaro and the National Congress of Brazil

This study unpacks the 2022 Brazilian Presidential campaign marked by multiple claims of electoral fraud and calls for a coup d’état by supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro. We identify the narrative frames underpinning this insurrectionist playbook by analyzing Bolsonaro’s statements during the presidential campaign. We subsequently test the penetration of this playbook on members of the Brazilian National Congress during the campaign trail and the transition of power to the opposition candidate, when pro-Bolsonaro protesters attempted to overthrow the Federal Government. Our analyses lend support to the thesis that the coup d’état was not successful due to the dwindling support beyond the hard-core Bolsonaro base. Our results also describe an insurrectionist playbook largely centered on the blueprint of false claims of electoral fraud, a playbook that can be monitored through the public statements of elected officials. We conclude with a discussion of our findings and recommendations for future research.

Instagramming the Political Image: Visual Campaigning Strategies of Successful Opposition Candidates in Turkey’s 2019 Mayoral Elections

This study explores how opposition political candidates strategically use Instagram images for their election campaigns in a competitive authoritarian regime. The article focuses on Turkey’s 2019 mayoral elections and reports findings from 452 Instagram posts by the winning candidates in the three biggest cities (İzmir, Ankara, and İstanbul), all of whom are from the opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The results from a quantitative content analysis show that all elected mayors mainly applied their traditional media strategies directly to Instagram as part of broadcasting purposes. They rarely extended their campaigning to other media platforms as part of a hybrid campaign strategy. Implications of the role of Instagram in challenging incumbent parties in competitive authoritarian regimes are discussed.

Elections and Democracy in Turkey: Reconsidering Competitive Authoritarianism in the Age of Democratic Backsliding

AbstractThis article reflects on the reasons why Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) could still win in the recent 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey despite, among other daunting issues, the deep economic crisis and their unsuccessful handling of the February 2023 earthquake. The article discusses the role of state apparatus and the media under a neopatrimonial system, as well as the role of the EU, which turned Turkey into a rentier state with the refugee deals. The discussion considers whether Turkey could still be seen as a competitive authoritarian regime and points to the difficulties in determining whether regimes such as the Turkish one are competitive authoritarian or not until the election results are seen and the opposition candidates actually win.

NİJERYA'DA SEÇİMLERİN ASKERİLEŞTİRİLMESİ: DEMOKRATİK BÜYÜME İÇİN BİR BANE

Since the return to democracy in 1999, elections in Nigeria have been an integral component of the democratization process and a necessary exercise for good governance. However, in successive elections, the procedures and periods of electioneering have often been fraught with threats and risks of electoral violence, which has significantly contributed to undoing long and hard-fought democratic gains. Furthermore, incumbent leaders have been accused of using state power to intimidate opposition candidates and their support base, with election processes being abused by some African governments to impose undemocratic practices. 
 
 This paper focuses on the role of the military in influencing elections in Nigeria. It uses the 2019 and 2023 general elections in Nigeria as case studies. This paper argues that using the military in elections not only lacks a constitutional basis but contributes to electoral violence, deaths and destruction of property.

Rwanda: Opposition Candidate

Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural SeriesVolume 60, Issue 5 p. 24020A-24020A Internal Developments Rwanda: Opposition Candidate First published: 13 June 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-825X.2023.11069.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. Volume60, Issue5June 2023Pages 24020A-24020A RelatedInformation

GHANA: Opposition Candidate

Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural SeriesVolume 60, Issue 5 p. 24021C-24022A Internal Developments GHANA: Opposition Candidate First published: 13 June 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-825X.2023.11073.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. Volume60, Issue5June 2023Pages 24021C-24022A RelatedInformation

Going on the offensive: Negative messaging in British general elections

What drives British parliamentary candidates to attack their opponents? Using an original dataset of approximately 7500 general election leaflets from four elections between 2010 and 2019, we offer the first study into the conditions under which British parliamentary candidates use negative messaging. We find that leaflets from opposition candidates and candidates contesting marginal (i.e., competitive) seats are more likely to include messages about their opponent(s), which suggests that candidates respond to the incentives and pressures that come from both their local and national environment when determining whether to include negative messaging in their leaflets. Moreover, we find that, as seats become more marginal, candidates from government parties become just as likely as opposition parties to engage in negative messaging, and therefore, voters in marginal seats are likely to experience more negative campaigns than those residing in seats where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Taken together, our findings make an important contribution to the growing body of literature that explores how candidates use negative messaging in party-centred systems.

Sierra Leone: Opposition Candidate

Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural SeriesVolume 60, Issue 2 p. 23913A-23913A Internal Developments Sierra Leone: Opposition Candidate First published: 16 March 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-825X.2023.10929.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume60, Issue2March 2023Pages 23913A-23913A RelatedInformation

The Instrumentalization of Women Opposition Leaders for Authoritarian Regime Entrenchment: The Case of Uganda

Electoral authoritarian regimes have sought to use a variety of tactics to remain in power even as they have opened themselves up to competition through multiparty elections. These tactics have included an array of measures targeting opposition women. They became significant in Africa after the 1990s as most countries adopted multiparty systems and ruling parties needed to maintain vote share. Ruling parties in African authoritarian countries strengthened their patronage networks by promoting women as leaders. At the same time, women in opposition parties have fared poorly compared to women in ruling parties and male opposition candidates. This has been the case even where one finds the special dispensation of a gender quota in the form of reserved seats. This article looks at how Uganda’s ruling party has used various tactics to advance women leaders, responding to pressures from both the women’s movement and international actors while seeking to ensure its continued dominance. It reveals an essential feature of authoritarianism in Africa today, namely the instrumental use of women leaders to entrench the ruling party in power.

The “Accidental Candidate” Versus Europe’s Longest Dictator: Belarus’s Unfinished Revolution for Women

Women in Central and Eastern Europe have made gains as presidents and prime ministers. A notable exception to this is Belarus, where President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the longest dictator in Europe, has tightly clung to power since 1994. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya surprised many when she threw her hat in the ring for the 2020 presidential election. This article asks how Tsikhanouskaya arose as the 2020 opposition candidate and how gender shaped the campaign. Gender played a central role in her being able to stand in the election. Her husband had been a leading presidential candidate but was imprisoned by the regime. Like women who rose to executive leadership positions, Tsikhanouskaya ran in her husband’s place. Lukashenka permitted her candidacy because he did not see her as a political threat. Lukashenka regularly diminished her candidacy using sexist rhetoric. Tsikhanouskaya’s own campaign highlighted more traditionally feminine traits such as being a nurturer, unifier, and non-power seeking, and only being in politics by chance. Referring to herself as an “accidental candidate,” she made it clear that she sought to unify the Belarussian people against the dictatorship and would step aside after this was accomplished. As de facto opposition leader, she continues to highlight these more feminine qualities and craft a less threatening image.

Legislative Elections Amid Civil Wars: Micro-Case Studies from Mali

ABSTRACT This paper investigates ruling parties’ calculations in wartime legislative elections. The paper argues that ruling parties’ strategies are shaped by opportunity structures and the party’s desire to protect party insiders, rather than simply by considerations about ‘government-held’ or ‘rebel-held’ territory. Ruling parties may adopt several strategies: (1) ceding seats to popular opposition candidates, even in government-controlled territory; (2) allowing rebels to run on the ruling party’s ticket; and (3) blatant electoral manipulation. Ruling parties may miscalculate, including about how much manipulation the population will countenance. The paper examines these dynamics through a case study of Mali’s 2020 legislative elections.

TIKTOK IN ELECTORAL COMMUNICATION: THE CASE OF RUSSIAN STATE DUMA ELECTIONS 2021

The article presents the results of an empirical study of the features of electoral communication in the political cluster of TikTok channels during the election of deputies of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of the VIII convocation, which took place from September 17 to 19, 2021. Using the method of content analysis, content strategies that were used by channels of a polar political orientation were identified and characterized. Thus, pro-government channels followed a strategy that we described as “television”: an attempt to use existing formats (mainly television) on a new platform (cuttings from television interviews), a combination of emotional and rational types of argumentation (as in the course of television debates), the use of topics informational character). The channels of the opposition candidates used a personalized "user" approach: publishing video messages to users on behalf of the candidates, the emotional nature of the videos, designed to involve subscribers in communication. This approach made it possible to involve users in the electoral discussion to a greater extent, which was confirmed by the results of calculating the user involvement coefficient. At the same time, the results of the study showed that neither the pro-government nor the opposition political forces were ready to be fully involved in the creation of content and adapt it to the unique formats of the TikTok service, and in the vast majority of cases they published content previously created for other communication channels. Thus, the potential of TikTok was only half used.

Землетрясение в Турции: влияние на внутреннюю политику и выборы мая 2023 г.

In May 2023, general presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Turkey, as a result of which the ruling government in confirmed its authority: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan retained his post and his People’s Alliance received a majority in the Grand National Assembly (Mejlis). The victory turned out to be difficult for the Turkish authorities. R.T.Erdogan won in two rounds of voting in a fierce competition with opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. However, while powerful People’s Alliance retained its majority in the Mejlis, it failed to get the desired qualified majority, having lost the opportunity to adopt a new Constitution within the next five years to replace the one in force since 1982. Elections in Turkey took place against the background of the largest earthquake in the country’s modern history that occurred on February 6, 2023 and the elimination of its consequences. The purpose of this article is to determine the consequences of the earthquake for Turkey’s domestic politics in terms of the course and results of the general presidential and parliamentary elections and the impact on domestic political situation for the five-year term of the newly elected president and the Mejlis in 2023–2028. Results of the national development during the 20-year period of Erdogan’s and Justice and Development Party’s rule are inspected. Based on the analysis of program documents, pledges and statements by the government and opposition, the impact of the earthquake on political processes in Turkey and on the turn of the Turkish voters’ attention to domestic issues is explored. The article marks an increase in nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments in Turkey, regardless of the political views of the Turkish electorate, and suggests that these sentiments will continue to play a significant role in the coming years.

CINEMA E REPRESSÃO: A VONTADE DE VERDADE DE JAFAR PANAHI

The article analyzes the film In film nist (2011), by the Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi, as a form of resistance to the silencing imposed by the Iranian government on his artistic production, since, in 2009, the filmmaker displeased the authorities of his country by supporting Mir Hussein Mussavi, the opposition candidate in the presidential election. Thus, Panahi was sentenced to 6 years of house arrest and banned from filming for 20 years, however, the filmmaker called his cameraman friend Mojtaba Mirtahmasb to record his routine in one day inside his own apartment and produced a questioning film. Contemporary Iranian cinema inaugurated a new modality of realism, whose filmmakers build “documentary fictions”, in which scripts are inspired by real stories. The restorative realism of Iranian cinema seeks to restore a fullness to the complex reality that only cinema would be able to achieve, using, for this, the resumption of episodes that happened in the historical and social world. It must be considered that the production of discourses, in any society, is controlled with the aim of conjuring its powers and dangers, weakening the effectiveness of uncontrollable events, with the aim of hiding the forces that materialize the social constitution. In order for the “will to truth” to be satisfactorily exercised, external and internal procedures to the discourse are used. While procedures external to discourse limit the production of discourses, interdicting the word, and defining what can be said/not said in each circumstance, through the “object taboo” and the privileged or exclusive right of the speaker; the procedures internal to the discourse have the function of classifying, ordering and dictating their distribution.

Resort spraw wewnętrznych wobec wyborów czerwcowych w 1989 roku. Decyzja nr 012/89 Ministra Spraw Wewnętrznych z dnia 31 V 1989 w sprawie wprowadzenia stanu podwyższonej gotowości do działań w resorcie spraw wewnętrznych na okres wyborów

During the elections in June 1989, a special staff was established in the Ministry, which was responsible for the operational security of their course. At the same time, an intensive and extensive action was carried out against the opposition candidates and the entire opposition environment. The first structural changes took place only in August 1989. However, no new regulations, new directional plans for operational work, the liquidation of old units and the appointment of new ways, the style and purpose of the SB did not change. He was focusing around the “solidarity” camp and the opposition organizations being formed.

Political Logic of the “Municipal Filter” in Russia: Evidence from Perm Krai 2020 Elections

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the endorsement strategies of municipal council members in Russia. Since 2012, the candidates for chief executive office are required to collect the signatures at the local level. Filtering had been an important political toll before the return of direct gubernatorial elections, however, for the latter there are specific requirements in terms of territorial quotas and coverage that can be used against the independent candidates. We theorize that partisanship, gender, and employment sector on individual level and political competition, population size, and budget autonomy on the municipality level are important in shaping the councilmembers’ decision. We test this theory against the data on 2020 Perm krai gubernatorial elections and find out that while the general pattern is largely in line with our expectations, there are nuances when it comes to supporting particular opposition candidates. This study contributes to the literature on electoral authoritarianism and subnational elections in Russia and to the general scholarship on the means of authoritarian control.