Profitable Opportunities Research Articles

The short-term impact of analyst recommendations: evidence from the Indian stock market

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the short-term impact of brokerage analysts’ recommendations on abnormal returns using a sample selected from the S&P BSE 100 in the Indian context. The efficient market hypothesis, specifically, its semi-strong form, is tested for “Buy” stock recommendations published in the electronic version of Business Standard. The crucial issue is, are there any abnormal returns that can be earned following a recommendation? If so, how quickly do prices incorporate the information value of these recommendations? It tests the impact of analyst recommendations on average abnormal returns (AARs) and standardized abnormal returns (SRs) to determine their statistical significance. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of stock recommendations published in the e-version of Business Standard, the event study methodology is used to determine whether AARs and SRs are significantly different from zero for the duration of the event window by using several significance tests. Findings The findings indicate a marginal opportunity for profit in the short term, restricted to the event day. However, the effect does not persist, i.e. the market is efficient in its semi-strong form implying that investors cannot consistently earn abnormal returns by following analysts’ recommendations. Post the event date, the market reaction to analyst recommendations becomes positive, however, insignificant until the ninth day after the recommendation providing support to the underreaction hypothesis given by Shliefer (2000) and post-recommendation price drift documented by Womack (1996). The study contributes by using different statistical tests to determine the significance of returns. Practical implications There are important implications for traders, investors and portfolio managers. The speed with which market prices incorporate publicly available information is useful in formulating trading strategies. However, stock characteristics such as market capitalization, volatility and level of analyst coverage need to be incorporated while making investment decisions. Originality/value The study contributes by using different statistical tests to determine the significance of returns.

International Trade Economic Analysis for Indian Agriculture during WTO Regime: Effects on Production, Exports, Imports and Poverty

The law of comparative advantage is the cornerstone of international trade. Economic growth, agriculture, poverty reduction and trade have a very complicated relationship. Trade analysis helps any country to discover profitable opportunities; hence the study has undertaken with these objectives. To analyze agricultural trade growth, responsiveness, stability and estimate the effects on production, exports, imports and poverty and suggest polices for boosting Trade. The major agricultural commodities from 1990-91 to 2015-16 were selected. Estimated CAGR, Instability Index, Export import price elasticity’s and regression. During the period 1990-91 to 2015-16, wheat export price and rice import price growth rates were found to be more than other cereals. The imports price growth rate of all pulses were more than exports price growth rates indicating India is importing at higher prices. Among the oilseeds crops, mustard import price (11.05 %) and sunflower export price (7.85 %) growth rates are more. The export import quantity growth rate of all cereals, pulses, and oilseeds were found to be positive except rice imports, wheat exports and soybean imports which were negative. Export import prices of all cereals (except maize) and all pulses were found to be unstable. Import price of all oilseed crops were found to be stable (except mustard and sesamum). The study found that among cereals, pulses and oilseeds, rice (1.24 %), peas (2.36 %) and mustard (0.97 %) have high export elasticities indicating these crops highly responsive to change in international prices. The effect of trade on poverty shows that, production for cereals and pulses, import price for pulses and oilseeds, export price for all the 3 groups have adverse impact on Poverty. Only for oilseeds, production and trade balance have positive and significant effect on poverty. The effect of trade on poverty shows that, export price on all cereals, pulses, oilseeds have adverse impact on poverty. Only for oilseeds, production and trade balance have positive and significant effect on poverty. Thus import prices of cereals, quantity of imports for pulses and export prices of cereals, pulses and oilseeds need to be thoroughly examined and pre-requisite actions as well as policy measures are required. The study advocates that India should design self-reliance policies in pulse production as India is importing pulses at higher prices. India also should design new stable foreign price policy for cereals and pulses as export import prices of all cereals and all pulses were found to be unstable.

STRATEGI PENGEMBANGAN USAHATANI TERUNG (Solanum Melongena L.) DI DESA PUKDALE KECAMATAN KUPANG TIMUR KABUPATEN KUPANG

This research was conducted with the aim of knowing how the internal factors of eggplant farming (Solanum melongena L.), to find out how the external factors of eggplant farming (Solanum melongena L.) and to find out how the strategy of developing eggplant farming in Pukdale Village, East Kupang District, Kupang Regency. The location of this research was carried out with the consideration that Pukdale village is one of the eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) farms. Primary data obtained by means of interviews and direct questionnaires with respondents. In this study, the number of samples taken was 32 people. In this study using a SWOT analysis consisting of internal and external factors. The results showed that: (1) the internal strategic factor of strength is 1.991 and weakness is a score of 0.766, which means that the influence of strength is greater than the effect of weakness on eggplant farming. While the difference between the external strategic factors of opportunity is 1.734 and the threat has a score of 0.831, which means that the effect of opportunities is greater than the effect of threats on eggplant farming (2) The Position Matrix is ​​in quadrant I, which indicates that this eggplant farming is strong and has a chance. The strategy given is Aggressive, where there is power to be used to seize profitable opportunities.

The effect of lean on performance: a longitudinal study of US Hospitals

PurposeThere has been little empirical research focused on the effect of lean on hospital performance in the form of a consolidated methodology. This paper aims to apply a more sophisticated approach to examine whether hospitals’ decision for lean implementation is endogenous and test the effects of lean on hospital performance.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a publicly available data set of hospitals across the USA from 2002 to 2019 and performs two-stage least squares (2SLS) analysis. In the first stage, a probit model is used to estimate hospitals’ decision to implement lean. The fitted probability values from the first stage are used in the second stage to test the relationship between lean and hospital performance. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression results are compared with those of the 2SLS approach.FindingsThe decision to implement lean is significantly associated with hospital-specific characteristics (the complexity of care, size and cost-to-charge ratio), indicating hospitals’ decision for lean implementation is endogenous. Moreover, there is strong evidence that lean implementation is positively associated with hospital financial and operational performance. The Hausman F-tests confirm the presence of endogeneity and this, in turn, suggests that OLS regressions result in unreliable estimates.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study can help hospital managers benchmark performance and explore opportunities for profit and efficiency improvement. The findings are also relevant to policymakers who strive to lower health-care spending.Originality/valueThis study is motivated by the challenges facing the health-care industry. This study is among the first to investigate endogeneity in lean implementation and the association between lean and hospital performance using large-scale archival panel data. The use of the 2SLS approach provides more confidence in statistical findings.

The Level of Diversification on the Firms of the Iberian Market

It is a fact that a company’s durability may depend on its capacity to readjust to a world in continuous change. Diversification strategies should be a security device, reduce the risk, and at the same time, search for possible profitable opportunities. Therefore, when a diversified firm follows one of its business sections and realizes that the performance is worse than foreseen, this negative impact may be diminished by other segments with better performance. Contextually, the current study aims to determine a correlation between value and corporate diversification in the Iberian market. We use Tobin’s Q as the measure for value and the Herfindahl Index to measure diversification. In addition to the study of correlation, this paper also analyses the level of diversification for the firms that integrate the Iberian market and if their market value is above or below their book value. Using these metrics, we found a negative correlation between value and diversification in the Iberian Market. In our sample, we also found that highly diversified firms performed worse than focused firms on average. In the Portuguese sample, we were able to determine the level of diversification that maximizes the Tobin’s Q of a firm. According to Tobin's Q, our sample was characterized by a low level of diversification in general and that the companies were slightly overvalued.

MARITIME SECTOR: KEY DRIVER OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

Nigeria’s Maritime sector is a neglected gold mine. It is capable of becoming a key engine of economic growth and sustainable development, if enhancive strategies are implemented for optimum efficiency. Nigeria’s maritime sector performance for 2019, like the global maritime business in the evidently points to the negative. However, factors that led the local maritime downward are different from factors that negatively affected global maritime sector. This paper will assess the technologies advancement; automation and digitalisation of Nigeria maritime sector to ensure it attain global best practices recommended by International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Currently, technological advancement is bringing its transformative advantages to the maritime ports and shipping space. In the industry known for complex issues, large scale, and a need for firm reliability, digital technologies that create new opportunities for better optimization, automation, and profitability. The study will also analyse maritime performance indicators which includes performance measurement, direct shipping connectivity, port improved management and environmental factor. Performance indicators are systematic tools that determine nature and critical issues that confront shipping industry and ports, help evaluate the possible impact of another policy decision. The challenges, prospects and sustainability of maritime sector in Nigeria over the years will be properly reviewed. The maritime future poses numerous challenges, but also erupt numerous opportunities. Global trade is expanding, Ports and shipping as its workhorse are undergoing transformation and facing massive challenges in maintaining competitiveness. Theories, analyses supporting statistical data, and related information from other relevant institutions and agencies, served as the framework of the study. The result of the study is expected to contribute in economic growth and sustainable development of the maritime sector.
 
 JEL: R40; R42; L20
 
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A filtered currency carry trade

In this paper, we document that the predictive capacity of forward discounts on future currency returns not only differs across currencies but also persists. We then propose a new currency carry trade strategy that relies on the differential predictive capacity of forward discounts. We find that the new strategy offers a significant amount of profit improvement over the conventional currency carry trade strategy. We also find that emerging market currencies provide relatively large profit opportunities. While both strategies show decreasing carry trade profits as FX markets get volatile, the relative outperformance of the new carry trade strategy tends to be found in stable periods but disappears in volatile periods. The superiority of the new carry trade relative to the conventional carry trade is robust to various specification changes.

Narratives of vulnerability and resilience: An investigation of the climate action plans of New York City and Copenhagen

This paper argues that the rise of a global mainstream resilience narrative is advancing a strategically simplified concept of vulnerability that is being exploited to open up lucrative new opportunities for profit. In particular, it presents three ways in which mainstream narratives are currently masking--if not exacerbating--the vulnerability of residents in New York City and Copenhagen. First, it explores how a technocratic orientation to community engagement is affecting local perceptions of participatory processes such as planning consultations and visioning exercises. Next, it investigates how the pursuit of an ‘infrastructure-first’ approach to interventions and a reputation for eco-innovation is creating tensions between institutional and local experiences of resilience. Lastly, it discusses some of the ways in which simplistic understandings of vulnerability are leading to adverse outcomes--such as eco-gentrification and displacement--that are making local communities more, not less, vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It concludes by arguing that the meaningful integration of diverse perspectives and values is integral to the process of giving rise to more critical and expansive narratives of resilience.

Alternative Financial Methods for Improving the Investment in Renewable Energy Companies

Renewable energies have increased in importance in recent years due to the harm caused to the environment by fossil fuels. As a result, renewable energy companies seem to be profitable investment opportunities given their likely substantial future earnings. However, previous empirical evidence has not always agreed about this likely profitability. In addition, the methodologies employed in the existing empirical literature are complicated and not feasible for most investors to use. Therefore, it is proposed an approach which combines the use of performance measures, screening rules, devolatized returns and portfolio strategies, all of which can be implemented by investors. This approach results in high cumulative returns of more than 200% and other positive ratios, even when transaction costs are considered. This should encourage people to invest in these renewable energies and contribute to improving the environment.

Fabrication of δ-MnO2-modified algal biochar for efficient removal of U(VI) from aqueous solutions

Exploitation of algal biochar is a profitable opportunity for the utilization of filamentous green algae due to its sustainable growth and ease of harvest. In this study, Rhizoclonium-derived biochar (CB) and δ-MnO2-modified biochar (MnO2/CB) were fabricated for uranium (U(VI)) removal. The results showed that the δ-MnO2 modification increased the BET surface area and decreased the isoelectric point. The maximum sorption amount of U(VI) by the MnO2/CB reached up to 100.2 mg/g (pH = 6.0, 289 K, and 0.01 M NaCl), which was two times higher than that of the CB. After five consecutive sorption/desorption cycles, the affinity of the MnO2/CB for U(VI) maintained in 94.8%. According to the analysis of X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, it confirmed that the U(VI) sorption was mainly ascribed to the surface complexation between U(VI) and oxygen-containing functional groups on the surface of the MnO2/CB. Therefore, this investigation not only encourages the development of algal biochar derived from the filamentous green algae but also provides a novel adsorbent for U(VI) removal from aqueous solutions.

Economic implications of a connected and automated mobility in Europe

Connected and Automated Mobility will disrupt the road transport sector which has remained substantially unchanged since the vehicle became mass produced in the first half of the twentieth century. Given the central role of mobility for our society and economy, the implications of a transformation in the transport sector will not be limited to transport but will regard many other aspects of our society. The aim of this paper is to analyse the possible future socio-economic implications of such a disruption in the road transport sector. It builds upon a set of future road transport scenarios and aims to identify the main impacts in different economic sectors mostly from a qualitative perspective. Results show that the deployment of Connected and Automated Vehicles could provide profitable opportunities for sectors like automotive, electronics and software, telecommunication, data services, digital media and freight transport; but other sectors including insurance and maintenance and repair are identified as businesses that might suffer revenue decreases in the future. In all scenarios, the policy implications of the transformation can be strong, which implies that the evolution of the transport system has to be carefully monitored in order to promptly cope with possible future effects.

How Are Institutions Informed? Proactive Trading, Information Flows, and Stock Selection Strategies*

ABSTRACTUsing the relationship between institutional trades and sequential public information, this study provides a systematic way to identify institutional trades that are informative about future equity returns. By studying the US financial institutions from 1994 to 2016, I show that institutional trades initiated by managers responding proactively to upcoming informational signals strongly predict future stock returns. The predictability of informed institutions is more evident for stocks with higher information asymmetry and in periods of higher profit opportunities. The informed institutions outperform the uninformed ones by 2% on an annualized basis and their performance gap is persistent. Importantly, the return predictability of informed institutional trades is not subsumed by the return‐predictive signals documented in prior research, computed either from institutional holdings or from financial statements. Further analyses show that the informed institutional investors derive their superior ability to forecast future stock returns from processing corporate fundamentals and acquiring private information. This study derives a novel return predictor using the institutions' proactive trading behavior and identifies various informational sources of informed traders.

Weighted Elo rating for tennis match predictions

Originally applied to tennis by the data journalists of FiveThirtyEight.com, the Elo rating method estimates the strength of each player based on her/his career as well as the outcome of the last match played. Together with the regression-based, point-based and paired-comparison approaches, the Elo rating is a popular method to predict the probability of winning tennis matches. Notwithstanding its widely recognized merits in terms of ease of reproducibility and good performance, the Elo method does not completely take into account the current form of each player and their recent performances. This paper proposes a new version of the Elo rating method, labelled Weighted Elo (WElo), where the standard Elo updating is additionally weighted according to the scoreline of the players’ last match. The proposed method considers not only if a player has won (lost) a match, but also how the victory (defeat) was achieved. In the empirical application, the forecasting performance of the WElo method is evaluated and compared against the most popular forecasting methods in tennis, using a sample of over 60,000 men’s and women’s professional matches. Overall, the WElo method outperforms all these competing methods. Moreover, it provides meaningfully profitable opportunities, according to a simple betting strategy.

Economic and social effects of money laundering: the UK case

Money laundering is one of the largest economic problems of the 21st century with huge social implications and effects. It enables the richest and most powerful in society to take advantage of globalisation and differences across countries. It is only for less well-off money laundering regulations in the UK are stringent and enforced. Money laundering is not a ‘victimless crime’. The individual(s) or the country (and inhabitants) from which the money is stolen are, by definition, the victims/losers, whilst the money is used in the recipient country to support the criminal’s lifestyle or other activities such as drug importation, child sexual exploitation, human trafficking and terrorism and so on, alternatively, invested in property until a profitable opportunity arises. This paper examines the problem both generally and the UK in particular. It describes the main forms and types of money laundering and the devices used. This is followed by sections on its effects on an economy and contains an empirical study of this as it affects London property prices, the actions taken by UK regulators against money launderers, their advisers and agents. The final section discusses some recent initiates and recommendations as to what can and should be done.

Bank Foreign Direct Investment in Indian Economy: A Theoretical Review

The study's primary objective is to understand the evolution of foreign direct investment theories (FDI) and identify the application theories in bank FDI from the literature. Based on the pattern of investment, FDI can be classified as greenfield and brownfield investment. Both types of investments yield profits, so the study attempted to answer why greenfield FDI, i.e., foreign banks invest by opening their branches and offices in the host economy. The study reviewed literature focused on bank FDI determinants in host economies and discussed it in the Indian context. The study found that primary reasons for greenfield FDI are India's locational advantages, such as profit opportunity and already present home clients in India.

DETERMINATION OF DIRECTIONS OF IMPROVEMENT THE ORGANIZATIONAL AND ECONOMIC MECHANISM OF DIVERSIFICATION OF USED RESOURCES AND MANAGEMENT OF PRODUCTS MANAGEMENT

Topicality. In the context of globalization of the world economy, enterprises of different industries, associated with the interpenetration of technology and capital, are diversifying their financial and economic activities. The effectiveness of its implementation directly depends on the timely focus on the types of goods, works, services that are in demand and competitive. Research on the competitiveness of products of various sectors of the economy is becoming increasingly important. The production of competitive products and ensuring the sustainable position of small and medium-sized enterprises in the agricultural market requires a change in production costs by creating a perfect management accounting system, which provides internal users with information for effective management. After all, the level of competitive products and the results of economic activity of the enterprise largely depend on the level of costs.Aim and tasks. The purpose of writing this study is to identify areas for improving the mechanism of diversification of resource use and cost management in small and medium-sized businesses.Research results. In order to effectively implement the diversification mechanism in the complex of agricultural enterprises, it is necessary to solve a number of micro- and macroeconomic problems. Particular attention should be paid to determining areas for improving the organizational and economic mechanism for diversification of resources used and cost management.The sphere of agriculture as animal husbandry, which remains one of the main branches of agriculture of small and medium business, in relation to the production of competitive products, is studied. Despite the large amount of research, the issues of regulation and optimization of livestock production costs in the management accounting system remain unclear. Theoretical and methodological developments aimed at determining the methods of regulation and optimization of costs for livestock production in the management accounting system, which determines the relevance of the selected topic.The regulation and optimization of costs for livestock production in the management accounting system, the expansion of the concept of «costs», methods of accounting for livestock costs and the main points of cost accounting in production.The production of competitive products and ensuring a stable position of enterprises in the agricultural market requires a change in the cost of livestock products by creating a perfect management accounting system that allows internal users to provide information for effective management.It is noted that in theory and practice there are a number of features of the classification of costs, which take into account various aspects of the agricultural enterprise and form a variety of information for effective management decisions. Thus, experience and research show that the organization of management accounting within a particular agricultural enterprise, focused on meeting the specific information needs of the management system, will ensure its success in dynamic economic conditions and help solve a wide range of problems to optimize livestock production costs.Conclusion. Based on the study, it can be stated that the improvement of the diversification mechanism should be defined as a set of methods and forms of management activities aimed at identifying and rational use of the most profitable opportunities to achieve the goals. The management system of production diversification includes methods and procedures of analysis, planning and control, as well as feedback, which allows to improve the quality of management decisions.Further research has been formed on the formation of a system of accounting for the cost of livestock products, capable of generating information flows for management decisions, which requires a sound approach to determining the objects of accounting and costing, establishing their relationship and interdependence.

Forecasting foreign exchange rate using a combination of linear regression and flower pollination algorithm

Several currencies exist in the world. Each currency will have value. The currency exchange will go through a conversion process to adjust the amount. Each currency value can fluctuate based on the conditions of the currency area. The fluctuating changes in value provide profit opportunities. Maximizing profits can make forecasts so that the right decisions are made. One of the forecasts can use regression. Regression is capable of forecasting based on historical data. The regression in this study will be optimized using the Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA). The use of the Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA) aims to obtain appropriate parameters for regression to reduce forecast errors. The data in this study were obtained by utilizing extraction from the Meta trader application. This data will be the basis for the system learning stage and the testing phase. Obtaining a good hyperparameter can make the forecasting system closer to the actual value. Good system accuracy can be a trader’s supporting data in making transactions. Forecasting in this study used the parameter 5 window sizes, 20 population sizes, and 0.7 probability switch. This experiment resulted in MSE 0.0331 and RMSE 0.1756. This forecasting has sufficient results to support a trader’s decision. Further research is needed to improve accuracy and determine the direction of the forecast to improve this research.

COVID-19 and instability of stock market performance: evidence from the U.S.

The effect of COVID-19 on stock market performance has important implications for both financial theory and practice. This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 and the instability of both stock return predictability and price volatility in the U.S over the period January 1st, 2019 to June 30th, 2020 by using the methodologies of Bai and Perron (Econometrica 66:47–78, 1998. https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540; J Appl Econo 18:1–22, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659), Elliot and Muller (Optimal testing general breaking processes in linear time series models. University of California at San Diego Economic Working Paper, 2004), and Xu (J Econ 173:126–142, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.11.001). The results highlight a single break in return predictability and price volatility of both S&P 500 and DJIA. The timing of the break is consistent with the COVID-19 outbreak, or more specifically the stock selling-offs by the U.S. senate committee members before COVID-19 crashed the market. Furthermore, return predictability and price volatility significantly increased following the derived break. The findings suggest that the pandemic crisis was associated with market inefficiency, creating profitable opportunities for traders and speculators. Furthermore, it also induced income and wealth inequality between market participants with plenty of liquidity at hand and those short of funds.

Evasive entrepreneurship: Circumventing and exploiting institutional impediments for new profit opportunity in an emerging market.

Evasive entrepreneurship (circumvention and exploitation of institutions by entrepreneurs) is a prevalent practice in many developing economies. Extant literature on the topic falls short of providing adequate theories to explain its triggers, mechanisms, and consequences. Leveraging extensive survey data from the World Bank, we used structural equation modeling to examine the relationship between evasive entrepreneurial behavior—tax evasion and bribery—and the relative payoff of such practices. Of the 2599 Nigerian entrepreneurs in our sample, the majority admitted to engaging in evasive entrepreneurship. The data suggest that institutional factors thought to constrain entrepreneurship in emerging markets are counter-intuitively perceived by founders as opportunities to earn large rents and improve firm performance. Our results emphasize the urgent need to eliminate institutional constraints that paradoxically enable the growth of evasive entrepreneurship in emerging economies. Our results also suggest that prevailing local conventions involving evasive behavior may motivate nascent entrepreneurs to imitate bribery and tax evasion, normalizing malfeasance as ‘best practice.’

Profits, public health, and patient care: caring for childhood cancer survivors.

Advances in therapy over the last several decades have contributed to dramatic growth in the population of childhood cancer survivors [1]. Unfortunately, cancer treatments can harm developing organs, leaving some childhood survivors at high risk for subsequent chronic illness, including heart failure, lung disease, cognitive problems, reproductive health issues, and secondary cancers [2]. These long-term adverse effects can reduce the life expectancy of survivors compared to their age-matched noncancer peers and reduce their quality of life over the course of survivorship [3, 4]. The burden of chronic disease, psychosocial concerns together with the growing numbers of adult and young adult survivors of childhood cancer has led to a critical need for evidence-based models of care to improve clinical and behavioral outcomes for this population [5]. Benedict et al. (see this issue) [6] present the case for hospital-based specialty clinics as a care model for childhood cancer survivors. This work is very timely given shortages in institutional resources for survivorship care [7] and requirements for survivorship programs new accreditation standards by the American College of Surgeons Commission on Cancer, which include the delivery of a Survivorship Care Plan to cancer patients at the conclusion of their treatment [8]. The authors are to be lauded for their use of an interesting economic approach to provide data to motivate hospital administrators to invest in a survivorship clinic. The study presents a retrospective financial accounting analysis of procedures recommended by the “Children’s Oncology Group (COG) guidelines” at a single nonprofit institution in New York. The researchers report a potential “profit opportunity loss” of $348,700 (in 2019 dollars) over a period of 3 years from 2010 to 2012 due to nonuniversal use of recommended procedures and care. Further, they found that nonuniversal use of guideline care occurred among individuals who were uninsured and underinsured and racial minorities, arguably the most vulnerable groups. Motivating providers and patients to routinely undergo office visits and procedures to potentially detect disease that led to additional services (e.g., breast cancer screening with MRI generating biopsies and surgeries) was projected to increase hospital profits. The authors argue that the ability to capture this potential profit would lead to increased investment to support clinical operations, and this investment could then improve survivors’ outcomes.