Operational Risk Events Research Articles

Assessing the Operational Risk of Investment Funds

Over the last decade, several events, including the 2003 late-trading and market-timing mutual fund scandal, have demonstrated investment funds have significant levels of operational risk. While the BASEL II accord requires banks to quantify potential operational risk losses, investment fund regulators have instead required additional disclosure. Little research, however, has been performed evaluating the usefulness of regulatory disclosure in predicting and protecting investors from large operational risk events. In this study, we will use a long time series of previously unexamined historical Form ADV filings to identify what disclosure information is useful to investors. By linking this data to mutual fund companies, we can examine what current conflicts of interest and regulatory issues predict future operational losses for investors. We will also use this information to form a univariate measure computed using standard mutual fund operating data that will inform investors about the mutual fund operational risk. Ultimately, our research will have important implications for both investment fund investors and regulators. By determining what disclosure information is most useful, investors can focus on those variables to protect themselves from future problems, while regulators can improve the cost-benefit ratio of future disclosure requirements.

The dynamics of operational loss clustering

This paper investigates the characteristics of the operational loss data formation mechanism that takes place between the date of discovery of a new operational risk event and the final settlement date on which all losses are materialized. The first loss that characterizes the initial impact of a new operational risk event frequently triggers a sequence of related losses. Then, losses generated by the same event are not independent and follow a predictable scheme and the frequency of secondary losses is not homogeneous: both are functions of the initial loss amount and time. We model the arrival intensity and loss severities with a shot-noise stochastic process and derive its key properties. We then discuss implications of our model for the estimation of the regulatory capital charge for operational risk. In an empirical analysis, we find strong evidence of a shot-noise behavior in operational losses using the data of a major US commercial bank.

Financial Sector Integration and Information Spillovers: Effects of Operational Risk Events on U.S. Banks and Insurers

This paper presents an event study analysis of the market value impact of operational risk events on non-announcing firms in the U.S. banking and insurance industries. We seek evidence of positive or negative intra or inter-sector spillover effects on stock prices in the commercial banking, investment banking, and insurance industries. The rationale for anticipating inter-sector spillovers is the integration of the previously fragmented markets for financial services that has occurred over the past twenty-five years. We find that operational risk events cause significant negative intra and inter-sector spillover effects. Regression analysis reveals that the spillovers are information-based rather than purely contagious.

Cyclicality in catastrophic and operational risk measurements

Using equity returns for financial institutions we estimate both catastrophic and operational risk measures over the period 1973–2003. We find evidence of cyclical components in both the catastrophic and operational risk measures obtained from the generalized Pareto distribution and the skewed generalized error distribution. Our new, comprehensive approach to measuring operational risk shows that approximately 18% of financial institutions’ returns represent compensation for operational risk. However, depository institutions are exposed to operational risk levels that average 39% of the overall equity risk premium. Moreover, operational risk events are more likely to be the cause of large unexpected catastrophic losses, although when they occur, the losses are smaller than those resulting from a combination of market risk, credit risk or other risk events.

The market value impact of operational loss events for US banks and insurers

This paper conducts an event study analysis of the impact of operational loss events on the market values of banks and insurance companies, using the OpVar database. We focus on financial institutions because of the increased market and regulatory scrutiny of operational losses in these industries. The analysis covers all publicly reported banking and insurance operational risk events affecting publicly traded US institutions from 1978 to 2003 that caused operational losses of at least $10 million – a total of 403 bank events and 89 insurance company events. The results reveal a strong, statistically significant negative stock price reaction to announcements of operational loss events. On average, the market value response is larger for insurers than for banks. Moreover, the market value loss significantly exceeds the amount of the operational loss reported, implying that such losses convey adverse implications about future cash flows. Losses are proportionately larger for institutions with higher Tobin’s Q ratios, implying that operational loss events are more costly in market value terms for firms with strong growth prospects.

The Market Value Impact of Operational Risk Events for U.S. Banks and Insurers

This paper conducts an event study analysis of the impact of operational risk events on the market values of banks and insurance companies, using the OpVar database. We focus on financial institutions because of the increased market and regulatory scrutiny of operational losses in these industries. The analysis covers all publicly reported banking and insurance operational risk events affecting publicly traded U.S. institutions from 1978-2003 that caused operational losses of at least $10 million - a total of 403 bank events and 89 insurance company events. The results reveal a strong, statistically significant negative stock price reaction to announcements of operational loss events. On average, the market value response is larger for insurers than for banks. Moreover, the market value loss significantly exceeds the amount of the operational loss reported, implying that such losses convey adverse implications about future cash flows. Losses are proportionately larger for institutions with higher Tobin's Q ratios, implying that operational loss events are more costly in market value terms for firms with strong growth prospects.

Quantifying Event Risk: The Next Convergence

Operational or event risk is not a new phenomenon for financial services companies. However, its measurement, as part of integrated risk management programs, has been the subject of recent focus. Property and casualty insurers have measured components of this risk class as part of the pricing and underwriting process. Although all financial services firms are exposed to direct and indirect (e.g., reputational) costs of operational risk events, few financial services firms actually measure “operational risk.” This article explores ways in which this may be done in practice.

The Impact of Product Recalls on the Wealth of Sellers

What happens to the wealth of shareholders of firms producing defective products? Our answer-for producers of drugs and autos that were recalled from the market-is that the shareholders bear large losses. They are substantially greater than the costs directly emanating from the recall-for example, costs of destroying or repairing defective products. In fact, they are plausibly larger than all the costs attributable specifically to the recalled product; the losses spill over to the firm's "goodwill." They also spill over to competitors. This negative externality may even be larger in the aggregate than the losses to the producer of the recalled product.