The signing of the Paris Agreement represents a consensus on limiting the increase of the average global temperature compared to the preindustrial period. The European Union has set an ambitious goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. By 2030, the European Commission's REPowerEU plan aims to accelerate the processes of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, reducing energy use, and, at the same time, diversifying energy sources and increasing electricity connectivity between member states.In order to achieve the stated goals, future energy systems will be based on renewable energy sources, which are characterized by production variability. Such systems require flexibilization technologies that ensure security and stability of supply. In this study, an analysis of how different fuel and technology costs, as well as policy targets, influence the pace of the energy transition dynamic was made on the case study of Croatia, as there was no such previous investigation. Therefore, the goal of the research is to identify the most prominent driver to achieve energy transition targets in Croatia, with an emphasis on the required flexibilization technologies. The investigation has been implemented in the energy planning tool H2RES, a detailed open-source long-term optimization model in a five-year step model based on scenario analysis of different RES and CO2 targets, technology costs, and fuel prices. The results reveal a need for an ambitious energy policy if the goal is to achieve full energy system decarbonization. Currently, high carbon prices and lower technology costs won't be enough to lead the energy transition, without legislative support.
Read full abstract