Open-list PR Research Articles

All (electoral) politics is local? Candidate's regional roots and vote choice

ABSTRACT Many authors argue that candidates are more popular among voters from their own region. Two potential explanations have been suggested: voters’ identification with their home region, and the representation of regional interests. The information on candidates’ residence can be transmitted to voters in different ways, the most easily accessible way being information printed on the ballot paper. However, most studies on “friends and neighbour voting” use aggregate data. Studies that rely on individual level data usually put respondents in hypothetical situations and confront them with synthetic candidates, reducing their realism. To bridge this gap and to test the effect of providing information on the candidates’ residence, we use data from a survey experiment to analyze voters’ responses to ballot paper information on the regional background of real candidates in the 2014 European election in Germany. We find that voters in an open list PR election are more likely to support regional candidates if ballot paper information on the candidates’ geographic background helps them to do so. The appeal of personal ties is a stronger explanation for vote preference than the one based on regional interests.

The effect of campaign spending, district magnitude and incumbency when electoral rules create districts with old and new voters: the case of Chile in 2017

The impact of campaign spending, generally greater for challengers than for incumbents, is conditioned by electoral rules and incumbency—normally seen as a dichotomous condition. But when an electoral reform changes the composition of districts, a legislator is an incumbent only in the section of the new district. In Chile, the 60 open-list proportional representation 2-member districts used until 2013 were combined to create 28 open-list PR districts for the 2017 election, thus making some legislators enjoy a higher degree of incumbency. With data from 1430 candidates in the 2013 and 2017 legislative elections, we report a nonlinear positive effect of campaign spending on electoral success in all district magnitudes. Campaign spending has a higher impact as the number of open seats increases and a stronger effect for incumbents whose old districts comprise a larger share of the new districts. Campaign spending matters differently for challengers and incumbents given the moderating effect of district magnitude, the number of open seats and the percentage of incumbency.

The conditional effect of personal vote-seeking behaviors on MPs electoral performance: Evidence from an open-list PR system

Considerable research argues that voters reward personal vote-seeking behaviors. The expected electoral gain would be the primary driver of MPs' action. Nevertheless, empirical evidence is scarce, and the findings do not always match the theoretical expectations. This article examines the electoral impact of personal vote-seeking behaviors, arguing in favor of integrating party electoral performance into the models. I also propose a new measure of electoral performance based on the evolution of MPs electoral results. Drawing on data from Finland, the findings globally support the theoretical arguments. MPs benefit from personal vote-seeking behaviors, primarily when their party improves its results. The findings have important implications for our knowledge of the personal vote and, more generally, the personalization of politics.

Ballot position effects in open-list PR systems: the moderating impact of postal voting

Various studies demonstrate that candidates at the top of the party list have a strong advantage in preferential voting systems, particularly under open-list PR. Such ballot position effects can be explained by voters’ tendency to rely on easily available information shortcuts when selecting a candidate. In this paper, we argue that the strength of ballot position effects depends on the context of how voters cast their vote. Specifically, we argue that postal voters are less likely to rely on the ballot position cue compared to voters who vote on election day for two reasons. First, postal voters might be more politically interested. Second, postal voters have more time to assess additional information about the candidates. The hypothesis is tested by analyzing newly collected data from two open-list PR elections in the German federal state of Hamburg. The results confirm the theoretical expectations: Ballot position effects are substantively weaker among postal voters. Additional analyses suggest that differences in the political interest between postal voters and election day voters are unlikely to fully explain these results. These findings advance our understanding of ballot position effects and voters’ use of information shortcuts more generally.

Cross-tier personal gains in mixed electoral systems

ABSTRACT We extend the research on contamination effects in mixed-member electoral systems by considering the impact of “dual candidacies” in systems that combine SMD and open-list PR rules. We make three claims. First, we argue that dual-listed candidates have incentives to run campaigns that enable them to maximize their share of personal votes in both tiers. Second, the effect of a dual listing is conditioned by incumbency and party-list position. Finally, we argue that parties themselves benefit from strong dual candidates in the PR list election itself. To test our argument, we analyze the 2016 Lithuanian parliamentary election. Using elite interviews and statistical models of electoral data, our analysis supports our claims. We provide important contribution to contamination literature by demonstrating that parties received a direct, list-tier benefit from nominating SMD candidates, who successfully build personal vote coalitions.

How Much Should We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks of the Incumbency Advantage

Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used in the social sciences to estimate causal effects from observational data. Scholars can choose from a range of methods that implement different RDD estimators, but there is a paucity of research on the performance of these different estimators in recovering experimental benchmarks. Leveraging exact ties in local elections in Colombia and Finland, which are resolved by random coin toss, we find that RDD estimation using bias-correction and robust inference (CCT) performs better in replicating experimental estimates of the individual incumbency advantage than local linear regression with conventional inference (LLR). We assess the generalizability of our results by estimating incumbency effects across different subsamples, and in other countries. We find that CCT consistently comes closer to the experimental benchmark, produces smaller estimates than LLR, and that incumbency effects are highly heterogeneous, both in magnitude and sign, across countries with similar open-list PR systems.

Electoral reform and partisan dealignment in Indonesia

There is a vast literature on the effects of electoral institutions on party systems. Research on the relationship between electoral systems and the strength of partisan identities, however, is inconclusive, as existing work mostly focuses on individual-level factors. In this paper, we analyze the case of Indonesia to illustrate the links between electoral laws and patterns of mass partisanship. By exploiting variation over time (four electoral cycles), we show that deep-seated partisan affiliations weakened substantially with the introduction of open-list PR, a system that provides strong incentives to cultivate a personal vote. By analyzing variation across space (189 districts), we further document that partisan alignment has been more pronounced where personal voting is more prevalent. These findings suggest that electoral institutions are a powerful driver of partisan identities, and that the effect of institutional change at the national level may be contingent on local politics.

Do voters really prefer more choice? Determinants of support for personalised electoral systems

ABSTRACTWhich voters prefer having more choice between parties and candidates in an election? To provide an answer to this question, we analyse the case of a radical change from a closed-list PR system to a highly complex open-list PR system with cumulative voting in the German states of Bremen and Hamburg. We argue that the approval of a personalised electoral system is structured in similar ways as support for direct democracy. Using representative surveys conducted prior to all four state elections under cumulative voting in 2011 and 2015, we analyse which individual factors determine the approval, disapproval, or indifference towards the new electoral law. The results indicate that younger voters as well as supporters of left parties are much more likely to support a personalised electoral system. In contrast to previous studies, political interest only has an impact on the indifference towards the electoral system. More generally, our results show that a large proportion of voters does not appreciate personalised preferential electoral systems which seems to be a result of the complexity and magnitude of choice between parties and candidates.

Rywalizacja w ramach listy wyborczej jako konsekwencja systemu list półotwartych w wyborach do Sejmu RP

Competition between candidates from the same party against each other as a consequence of the open-list PR system in elections to the Polish Sejm lower houseAlthough a open-list PR system guarantees the voter the possibility of nominating a specific candidate from the list, which, according to voters, should represent his political option, it is often said that voters do not exercise that power, and that for the election results the most important is candidate’s ballot positionHo­wever, we know that the personal votes have a real impact on the electoral success. The question is what prompts voters to vote for a particular candidateThe purpose of this article is to analyze the results of the elections to the Polish Sejm from 2015 in terms of the ballot position effect, the intervention effect of the personal votes on the electoral success and effect of one of the determinants of the individual candidate’s success — locality/local ties of candidate.

Incumbency advantage and candidate characteristics in open-list proportional representation systems: Evidence from Indonesia

We use evidence from Indonesia's April 2014 legislative elections to study the relationship between incumbency, list position, candidate characteristics, and electoral success in open-list PR systems. Contrary to a recent literature identifying an incumbency disadvantage in other large developing democracies, we identify a consistent personal incumbency advantage in Indonesia. However, we argue that this advantage is mediated by party choices over how incumbents and newcomers are ranked on party lists, a key heuristic for voters in low-information electoral environments such as Indonesia.

How do MPs in Kosovo develop constituency links? A comparison of MPs’ behaviour under closed-list and open-list PR electoral systems

While studies among established democracies suggest MPs’ incentives to develop close links with their constituents are hardly determined by the electoral system, very little is known about MPs’ incentives to establish such links outside these countries. Looking at the case of Kosovo, as a newly democratic country with a low level of party system institutionalization, this article examines the extent to which its MPs develop close links with their constituents. Through interviews, the article compares MPs’ behaviour under closed-list PR system which was used in the 2004 elections and open-list PR system which was used both in the 2007 and 2010 elections. The main argument is that due to the weak nature of the party system institutionalization, MPs elected under open-list PR system, where there is intra-party electoral competition, will develop closer links with their constituents than those elected under closed-list PR, where such intra-party electoral competition is absent.

Voting for locals: Voters’ information processing strategies in open-list PR systems

While most of the literature on information shortcuts in open-list PR systems focuses on the importance of ballot position effects, the influence of a candidate’s localness has widely been ignored by existing studies. In this paper, I address this research gap and argue that voting patterns in open-list PR systems are more versatile than existing research would suggest. By analyzing a special characteristic of the open-list PR system employed in the parliamentary elections of Hamburg, it is shown that a large portion of voters chooses to vote for local candidates irrespective of the ballot position of the candidate. The paper further controls for factors conditioning the effect and finds that it remains strong even after taking them into consideration. The results have important implications for the representativeness of open-list PR systems, ballot paper design, as well as for our understanding of voters’ decision making process.

To have your cake and eat it too: accountability under a preferential voting system

Informed by the findings in the economic voting literature and using an original dataset on Polish elections this research breaks away from this established practice and goes a step further by showing how economic conditions allow voters to distinguish between high/low performers and effectively attribute responsibility under open-list PR systems where voters can choose not only among parties but also among individual candidates. By integrating open-list design into the model of accountability this study transforms the way we think about the very act of voting.

The gender gap in same-gender voting: The role of context

If parties nominate both male and female candidates, open-list PR electoral rules enable voters to engage in same-gender voting (i.e. select candidate of the same gender). In this regard, there is a gender gap in Finland, an otherwise highly egalitarian country: over time, men tend to support mostly male candidates, while women are roughly equally divided between male and female candidates. This study investigates whether voters' likelihood of selecting a candidate of the same gender is affected by contextual factors. Based on pooled cross-sectional data from five Finnish parliamentary elections between 1979 and 2011, it shows that gender differences in same-gender voting are substantially reduced when district magnitude and gender ratios among candidates and elected deputies are taken into account.

Not much happened: The impact of gender quotas in Poland

Poland maintained its open-list PR system but introduced gender quotas in the 2011 parliamentary elections in order to increase the number of women deputies. Yet this change had only a limited impact on women's representation. The 2011 election confirms that ‘favorable’ electoral laws provide opportunities for women, but they cannot guarantee that women will be elected. In particular, the use of quotas alone is not sufficient to ensure high levels of women's representation. The most important factors in explaining the Polish result were 1) the absence of a ‘zipper’, a list ordering that alternates men and women candidates, thus ensuring high list-places for women 2) the parties' favoring of men in their list placement 3) the relative size of the political parties and 4) voters' support for list leaders and incumbent deputies. Despite a disappointing outcome, quotas may be seen as beneficial in increasing women's presence and the potential for further evolution of the electoral system.

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AND CONGRESSIONAL MALFEASANCE: COMPARING BRAZILIAN SENATORS AND DEPUTIES IN THE SUPREME COURT CASES

This article contributes to our understanding of therelationship between electoral systems and legislative malfeasance byexamining personal vote, district magnitude, and electoral accountability.Studies emphasizing individual responsibility argue that personal-voteelectoral systems promote good performance by elected politicians andconstrain their malfeasance by enabling voters to identify, monitor, andhold responsible individual politicians. Another strand of the literatureclaims that large district magnitude ensures the availability of goodpoliticians and electoral competition, which reduce malfeasance. Atfirst glance, personal-vote systems with relatively large magnitudedistricts, such as open-list proportional representation, appear to combinethe beneficial attributes of the electoral systems that prior studies haveshown to lower malfeasance. This study develops a proposition thatdue to high information costs to voters faced with many candidates,multimember-district personal-vote systems may weaken, rather thanstrengthen, electoral accountability. Thus, the combination of personalvotes and large district magnitude can paradoxically encourage the entryof bad politicians, facilitate their elections, and fail to deter them frommisconduct once elected into office. Examining data on congressionalmalfeasance in Brazil, this study finds that deputies, who are electedthrough relatively large magnitude open-list PR, are more likely toreceive court notices about the charges against them than senatorselected by plurality rule.

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AND CONGRESSIONAL MALFEASANCE: COMPARING BRAZILIAN SENATORS AND DEPUTIES IN THE SUPREME COURT CASES

This article contributes to our understanding of therelationship between electoral systems and legislative malfeasance byexamining personal vote, district magnitude, and electoral accountability.Studies emphasizing individual responsibility argue that personal-voteelectoral systems promote good performance by elected politicians andconstrain their malfeasance by enabling voters to identify, monitor, andhold responsible individual politicians. Another strand of the literatureclaims that large district magnitude ensures the availability of goodpoliticians and electoral competition, which reduce malfeasance. Atfirst glance, personal-vote systems with relatively large magnitudedistricts, such as open-list proportional representation, appear to combinethe beneficial attributes of the electoral systems that prior studies haveshown to lower malfeasance. This study develops a proposition thatdue to high information costs to voters faced with many candidates,multimember-district personal-vote systems may weaken, rather thanstrengthen, electoral accountability. Thus, the combination of personalvotes and large district magnitude can paradoxically encourage the entryof bad politicians, facilitate their elections, and fail to deter them frommisconduct once elected into office. Examining data on congressionalmalfeasance in Brazil, this study finds that deputies, who are electedthrough relatively large magnitude open-list PR, are more likely toreceive court notices about the charges against them than senatorselected by plurality rule.

Electoral contexts that assist voter coordination: Ballot position effects in Poland

Hypothetically, in the open list PR system, all contestants, independently of their ballot position, have the same chance of winning a mandate. In practice, candidates placed at the top of the ballot enjoy a large surplus of votes. Their success can be explained by the primacy effect, in which the first ballot position acts as a focal point. The analysis of 6187 candidates running for the Polish Sejm in 2007 finds not only significant gains for top candidates, but that proximity to the upper end of the ballot likewise matters. It correspondingly discovers a weak benefit for candidates placed last on the list. Other sources of candidate advantage such as incumbency, capital city effect, age and gender are also investigated.

Choosing between Representing Women or Representing Ethnic Groups in Europe? Adding and Subtracting Plurality, Representation, and Democracy

Does choosing between electoral rules also mean choosing between electing women or ethnic candidates? Most electoral system and representation research assumes rules which benefit women also benefit ethnic candidates. The conclusions often come from studies of women, single countries, or national not immigrant minorities. Recent studies of local European elections suggest rules which encourage some personal voting or plurality over party-centric rules such as open not closed lists increase the number of ethnic MPs. The rules which benefit ethnic and women candidates differ. This paper attempts to answer if choosing personal voting/plurality vs. party-centric rules mean choosing between women and ethnic minorities. Unlike most studies, we analyze how closed vs. open list PR and decentralized nomination affect national ethnic, immigrant ethnic and women candidates differently in Western countries. Geographic distribution and constituency differences alter the effect of the rules. Using Dutch, UK, Canadian, New Zealand and other elections, we find that open list and grassroots nomination improve immigrant ethnic, but, weaken women candidates' chances. Choosing rules may mean choosing between ethnic and women candidates.

The Michael Marsh Question: How do Finns do Constituency Service?

Work on the representational focus of Finnish parliamentarians has been largely conspicuous by its absence and the notion of ‘constituency service’ is neither familiar to Finns, nor does it translate into Finnish. Based on interviews with MPs and their personal assistants, data from the Finnish leg of the Comparative Candidate Survey and official statistical material, this article makes a first, rudimentary stab at analysing constituency service in the Finnish context. Drawing on the comparative literature, there appear strong electoral and party system incentives for Finnish MPs to engage in constituency effort. The combination of decentralised candidate selection procedures and an open-list PR voting system makes a strong case for personal-vote-cultivation through constituency service. The article asks whether this is the case and, if so, how do Finns do constituency service. The distinction is drawn between action that is primarily internal to the constituency and action beyond the boundaries of the constituency and three indicators of constituency service are employed (i) the staging of ‘surgeries’ and concomitant casework (ii) ‘delivery’ through participation on municipal councils (iii) various forms of legislative initiative, especially those connected with the annual Finance Bill. It is argued that in Finland constituency service does not involve action that is primarily constituency based. Measured by the frequency with which they submit constituency-specific budget motions, a core of ‘constituency MPs’ is identified and varying motives for their constituency effort suggested.