Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems Research Articles

Identification of Convective Boundary Layer Depth over the Great Lakes Region Using Aircraft Observations: A Comparison of Various Methods

Abstract This study evaluates the methods of identifying the height zi of the top of the convective boundary layer (CBL) during winter (December and January) over the Great Lakes and nearby land areas using observations taken by the University of Wyoming King Air research aircraft during the Lake-Induced Convection Experiment (1997/98) and Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (2013/14) field campaigns. Since CBLs facilitate vertical mixing near the surface, the most direct measurement of zi is that above which the vertical velocity turbulent fluctuations are weak or absent. Thus, we use zi from the turbulence method as the “reference value” to which zi from other methods, based on bulk Richardson number (Rib), liquid water content, and vertical gradients of potential temperature, relative humidity, and water vapor mixing ratio, are compared. The potential temperature gradient method using a threshold value of 0.015 K m−1 for soundings over land and 0.011 K m−1 for soundings over lake provided the estimates of zi that are most consistent with the turbulence method. The Rib threshold-based method, commonly used in numerical simulation studies, underestimated zi. Analyzing the methods’ performance on the averaging window zavg we recommend using zavg = 20 or 50 m for zi estimations for lake-effect boundary layers. The present dataset consists of both cloudy and cloud-free boundary layers, some having decoupled boundary layers above the inversion top. Because cases of decoupled boundary layers appear to be formed by nearby synoptic storms, we recommend use of the more general term, elevated mixed layers. Significance Statement The depth zi of the convective atmospheric boundary layer (CBL) strongly influences precipitation rates during lake-effect snowstorms (LES). However, various zi approximation methods produce significantly different results. This study utilizes extensive concurrently collected observations by project aircraft during two LES field studies [Lake-Induced Convection Experiment (Lake-ICE) and OWLeS] to assess how zi from common estimation methods compare with “reference” zi derived from turbulent fluctuations, a direct measure of CBL mixing. For soundings taken both over land and lake; with cloudy or cloud-free conditions, potential temperature gradient (PTG) methods provided the best agreement with the reference zi. A method commonly employed in numerical simulations performed relatively poorly. Interestingly, the PTG method worked equally well for “coupled” and elevated decoupled CBLs, commonly associated with nearby cyclones.

Elevated Mixed Layers during Great Lake Lake-Effect Events: An Investigation and Case Study from OWLeS

Abstract Data from rawinsondes launched during intensive observation periods (IOPs) of the Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems (OWLeS) field project reveal that elevated mixed layers (EMLs) in the lower troposphere were relatively common near Lake Ontario during OWLeS lake-effect events. Conservatively, EMLs exist in 193 of the 290 OWLeS IOP soundings. The distribution of EML base pressure derived from the OWLeS IOP soundings reveals two classes of EML, one that has a relatively low-elevation base (900–750 hPa) and one that has a relatively high-elevation base (750–500 hPa). It is hypothesized that the former class of EML, which is the focus of this research, is, at times, the result of mesoscale processes related to individual Great Lakes. WRF reanalysis fields from a case study during the OWLeS field project provide evidence of two means by which low-elevation base EMLs can originate from the lake-effect boundary layer convection and associated mesoscale circulations. First, such EMLs can form within the upper-level outflow branches of mesoscale solenoidal circulations. Evacuated Great Lakes–modified convective boundary layer air aloft then lies above ambient air of a greater static stability, forming EMLs. Second, such EMLs can form in the absence of a mesoscale solenoidal circulation when Great Lake–modified convective boundary layers overrun ambient air of a greater density. The reanalysis fields show that EMLs and layers of reduced static stability tied to Great Lakes–modified convective boundary layers can extend downwind for hundreds of kilometers from their areas of formation. Operational implications and avenues for future research are discussed.

Characteristics of Lake-Effect Precipitation over the Black River Valley and Western Adirondack Mountains

Abstract Potential factors affecting the inland penetration and orographic modulation of lake-effect precipitation east of Lake Ontario include the environmental (lake, land, and atmospheric) conditions, mode of the lake-effect system, and orographic processes associated with flow across the downstream Tug Hill Plateau (herein Tug Hill), Black River valley, and Adirondack Mountains (herein Adirondacks). In this study we use data from the KTYX WSR-88D, ERA5 reanalysis, New York State Mesonet, and Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign to examine how these factors influence lake-effect characteristics with emphasis on the region downstream of Tug Hill. During an eight-cool-season (16 November–15 April) study period (2012/13–2019/20), total radar-estimated precipitation during lake-effect periods increased gradually from Lake Ontario to upper Tug Hill and decreased abruptly where the Tug Hill escarpment drops into the Black River valley. The axis of maximum precipitation shifted poleward across the northern Black River valley and into the northwestern Adirondacks. In the western Adirondacks, the heaviest lake-effect snowfall periods featured strong, near-zonal boundary layer flow, a deep boundary layer, and a single precipitation band aligned along the long-lake axis. Airborne profiling radar observations collected during OWLeS IOP10 revealed precipitation enhancement over Tug Hill, spillover and shadowing in the Black River valley where a resonant lee wave was present, and precipitation invigoration over the western Adirondacks. These results illustrate the orographic modulation of inland-penetrating lake-effect systems downstream of Lake Ontario and the factors favoring heavy snowfall over the western Adirondacks. Significance Statement Inland penetrating lake-effect storms east of Lake Ontario affect remote rural communities, enable a regional winter-sports economy, and contribute to a snowpack that contributes to runoff and flooding during thaws and rain-on-snow events. In this study we illustrate how the region’s three major geographic features—Tug Hill, the Black River valley, and the western Adirondacks—affect the characteristics of lake-effect precipitation, describe the factors contributing to heavy snowfall over the western Adirondacks, and provide an examples of terrain effects in a lake-effect storm observed with a specially instrumented research aircraft.

Snowband Characteristics Associated With Lake‐Effect Misovortices During the OWLeS Project

AbstractVortices of diameters 100 m to 10 km have been observed during lake‐effect snowstorms. Lines of misovortices (diameters = 40–4,000 m) have recently been documented forming over Lake Ontario during long lake‐axis‐parallel (LLAP)‐type lake‐effect storms. Using National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar—1988 Doppler (WSR‐88D) and Doppler on Wheels radar data from the Ontario Winter Lake‐effect Systems (OWLeS) project, lines of misovortices (also referred to as “misovortex lines” in this study) were investigated for intensive observation period (IOP)7 (7 January 2014) and IOP9 (9 January 2014). Results revealed that the misovortex lines formed on the southern or northern side of the west‐to‐east‐oriented LLAP band, whichever was closest to a low‐level boundary nearest the corresponding south or north shoreline (northern part in IOP7, southern part in IOP9). Examination of these two IOPs in the context of a total of 23 OWLeS IOPs, 11 of which had predominantly LLAP band morphology, showed that, in 4 of the 11 LLAP IOPs, horizontal shear zones/reflectivity bands formed in preferred regions over Lake Ontario and nearby land areas where low‐level boundaries (e.g., land breeze fronts) have been noted to develop near shoreline irregularities. Horizontal shear zones were predominant in approximately half of the OWLeS LLAP IOPs and were associated with storms having a well‐organized, solid banded reflectivity structure. Misovortices occurred when horizontal shear zones were prevalent, supporting the idea that horizontal shearing instability was important to their formation.

Assessment of a Microphysical Ensemble Used to Investigate the OWLeS IOP4 Lake-Effect Storm

AbstractMicrophysical processes within mixed-phase convective clouds can have cascading impacts on cloud properties and resultant precipitation. This paper investigates the role of microphysics in the lake-effect storm (LES) observed during intensive observing period 4 of the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems field campaign. A microphysical ensemble is composed of 24 simulations that differ in the microphysics scheme used (e.g., Weather Research and Forecasting Model microphysics options or a choice of two bulk adaptive habit models) along with changes in the representation of aerosol and potential ice nuclei concentrations, ice nucleation parameterizations, rain and ice fall speeds, spectral indices, ice habit assumptions, and the number of moments used for modeling ice-phase hydrometeors in each adaptive habit model. Each of these changes to microphysics resulted in varied precipitation types at the surface; 15 members forecast a mixture of snow, ice, and graupel, 7 members forecast only snow and ice, and the remaining 2 members forecast a combination of snow, ice, graupel, and rain. Observations from an optical disdrometer positioned to the south of the LES core indicate that 92% of the observed particles were snow and ice, 5% were graupel, and 3% were rain and drizzle. Analysis of observations spanning more than a point location, such as polarimetric radar observations and aircraft measurements of liquid water content, provides insight into cloud composition and processes leading to the differences at the surface. Ensemble spread is controlled by hydrometeor type differences spurred by processes or parameters (e.g., ice fall speed) that affect graupel mass.

LLAP Band Structure and Intense Lake-Effect Snowfall Downwind of Lake Ontario: Insights from the OWLeS 7–9 January 2014 Event

AbstractModeling and observational studies stemming from the 2013–14 Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign have yielded much insight into the structure and development of long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) lake-effect systems over Lake Ontario. This study uses airborne single- and dual-Doppler radar data obtained during two University of Wyoming King Air flights, as well as a high-resolution numerical model simulation, to examine and contrast two distinctly different LLAP band structures observed within a highly persistent lake-effect system on 7–9 January 2014. On 7 January, a very cold air mass accompanied by strong westerly winds and weak capping aloft resulted in a deep, intense LLAP band that produced heavy snowfall well inland. In contrast, weaker winds, weaker surface heat fluxes, and stronger capping aloft resulted in a weaker LLAP band on 9 January. This band was blocked along the downwind shore and produced only light snowfall closer to the shoreline. Although the two structures examined here represent opposite ends of a spectrum of LLAP bands, both cases reveal a well-organized mesoscale secondary circulation composed of two counterrotating horizontal vortices positioned on either side of a narrow updraft within the band. In both cases, this circulation traces back to a shallow, baroclinic land-breeze front originating along a bulge in the lake’s southern shoreline. As the band extends downstream and the low-level baroclinity weakens, buoyancy increases within the band—driven in part by cloud latent heating—leading to band intensification and a deeper, stronger, and more symmetric secondary circulation over the lake.

Sensitivity of Lake-Effect Cloud Microphysical Processes to Ice Crystal Habit and Nucleation during OWLeS IOP4

AbstractIce crystal habit significantly impacts ice crystal processes such as growth by vapor deposition. Despite this, most bulk microphysical models disregard this natural shape effect and assume ice to grow spherically. This paper focuses on how the evolution of ice crystal shape and choice of ice nucleation parameterization in the adaptive habit microphysics model (AHM) influence the lake-effect storm that occurred during intensive observing period 4 (IOP4) of the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign. This localized snowstorm produced total accumulated liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts up to 17.92 mm during a 16-h time period, providing a natural laboratory to investigate the ice–liquid partitioning within the cloud, various microphysical process rates, the accumulated precipitation magnitude, and its associated spatial distribution. Two nucleation parameterizations were implemented, and aerosol data from a size-resolved advanced particle microphysics (APM) model were ingested into the AHM for use in parameterizing ice and cloud condensation nuclei. Simulations allowing ice crystals to grow nonspherically produced 1.6%–2.3% greater precipitation while altering the nucleation parameterization changed the type of accumulating hydrometeors. In addition, all simulations were highly sensitive to the domain resolution and the source of initial and boundary conditions. These findings form the foundational understanding of relationships among ice crystal habit, nucleation parameterizations, and resultant cold-season mesoscale precipitation within detailed bulk microphysical models allowing adaptive habit.

Lake-Effect Snowbands in Baroclinic Environments

Abstract Lake-effect snowstorms are often observed to manifest as dominant bands, commonly produce heavy localized snowfall, and may extend large distances inland, resulting in hazards and high societal impact. Some studies of dominant bands have documented concomitant environmental baroclinity (i.e., baroclinity occurring at a scale larger than the width of the parent lake), but the interaction of this baroclinity with the inland structure of dominant bands has been largely unexplored. In this study, the thermodynamic environment and thermodynamic and kinematic structure of simulated dominant bands are examined using WRF reanalyses at 3-km horizontal resolution and an innovative technique for selecting the most representative member from the WRF ensemble. Three reanalysis periods are selected from the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign, encompassing 185 simulation hours, including 155 h in which dominant bands are identified. Environmental baroclinity is commonly observed during dominant-band periods and occurs in both the north–south and east–west directions. Sources of this baroclinity are identified and discussed. In addition, case studies are conducted for simulation hours featuring weak and strong along-band environmental baroclinity, resulting in weak and strong inland extent, respectively. These contrasting cases offer insight into one mechanism by which along-band environmental baroclinity can influence the inland structure and intensity of dominant bands: in the case with strong environmental baroclinity, inland portions of this band formed under weak instability and therefore exhibit slow overturning, enabling advection far inland under strong winds, whereas the nearshore portion forms under strong instability, and the enhanced overturning eventually leads to the demise of the inland portion of the band.

Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS): Bulk Characteristics and Kinematic Evolution of Misovortices in Long-Lake-Axis-Parallel Snowbands

Abstract During the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign, 12 long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) snowband events were sampled. Misovortices occurred in 11 of these events, with characteristic diameters of ~800 m, differential velocities of ~11 m s−1, and spacing between vortices of ~3 km. A detailed observational analysis of one such snowband provided further insight on the processes governing misovortex genesis and evolution, adding to the growing body of knowledge of these intense snowband features. On 15–16 December 2013, a misovortex-producing snowband was exceptionally well sampled by ground-based OWLeS instrumentation, which allowed for integrated finescale dual-Doppler and surface thermodynamic analyses. Similar to other studies, horizontal shearing instability (HSI), coupled with stretching, was shown to be the primary genesis mechanism. The HSI location was influenced by snowband-generated boundaries and location of the Arctic front relative to the band. Surface temperature observations, available for the first time, indicated that the misovortices formed along a baroclinic zone. Enhanced mixing, higher radar reflectivity, and increased precipitation rate accompanied the vortices. As the snowband came ashore, OWLeS participants indicated an increase in snowfall and white out conditions with the passage of the snowband. A sharp, small-scale pressure drop, coupled with winds of ~16 m s−1, marked the passage of a misovortex and may be typical of snowband misovortices.

Predicting the Inland Penetration of Long-Lake-Axis-Parallel Snowbands

AbstractPredicting the inland penetration of lake-effect long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) snowbands is crucial to public safety because LLAP bands can produce hazardous weather well downwind of the parent lake. Accordingly, hypotheses for the variation in inland penetration of LLAP-band radar echoes (InPen) are formulated and tested. The hypothesis testing includes an examination of statistical relationships between environmental variables and InPen for 34 snapshots of LLAP bands observed during the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign. Several previously proposed predictors of LLAP-band formation or InPen demonstrate weak correlations with InPen during OWLeS. A notable exception is convective boundary layer (CBL) depth, which is strongly correlated with InPen. In addition to CBL depth, InPen is strongly correlated with cold-air advection in the upper portion of the CBL, suggesting that boundary layer destabilization produced by vertically differential cold-air advection may be an important inland power source for preexisting LLAP bands. This power production is quantified through atmospheric energetics and the resulting variable, differential thermal advection power (DTAP), yields reasonably skillful predictions of InPen. Nevertheless, an InPen model developed using DTAP is outperformed by an empirical model combining CBL depth and potential temperature advection in the upper portion of the CBL. This two-variable model explains 76% of the observed InPen variance when tested on independent data. Finally, implications for operational forecasting of InPen are discussed.

Influence of Lake Erie on a Lake Ontario Lake-Effect Snowstorm

AbstractAnnual lake-effect snowstorms, which develop through surface buoyant instability and upward moisture transport from the Laurentian Great Lakes, lead to important local increases in snowfall to the south and east. Surface wind patterns during cold-air outbreaks often result in areas where the air is modified by more than one Great Lake. While it is known that boundary layer air that has crossed multiple lakes can produce particularly intense snow, few observations are available on the process by which this occurs. This study examines unique observations taken during the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field project to document the process by which Lake Erie influenced snowfall that was produced over Lake Ontario on 28 January 2014. During the event, lake-effect clouds and snow that developed over Lake Erie extended northeastward toward Lake Ontario. OWLeS and operational observations showed that the clouds from Lake Erie disappeared (and snow greatly decreased) as they approached the Lake Ontario shoreline. This clear-air zone was due to mesoscale subsidence, apparently due to the divergence of winds moving from land to the smoother lake surface. However, the influence of Lake Erie in producing a deeper lake-effect boundary layer, thicker clouds, increased turbulence magnitudes, and heavier snow was identified farther downwind over Lake Ontario. It is hypothesized that the combination of a low-stability, high-moisture boundary layer as well as convective eddies and limited snow particles crossing the mesoscale subsidence region locally enhanced the lake-effect system over Lake Ontario within the plume of air originating over Lake Erie.

Factors Affecting the Inland and Orographic Enhancement of Lake-Effect Precipitation over the Tug Hill Plateau

The factors affecting the inland and orographic enhancement of lake-effect precipitation are poorly understood, yet critical for operational forecasting. Here we use nine cool seasons (16 November–15 April) of radar data from the Montague/Ft. Drum, New York (KTYX), WSR-88D, the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and observations from the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign to examine variations in lake-effect precipitation enhancement east of Lake Ontario and over the Tug Hill Plateau (hereafter Tug Hill). Key factors affecting the inland and orographic enhancement in this region include the strength of the incident boundary layer flow, the intensity of the lake-induced convective available potential energy (LCAPE), and the mode of the lake-effect system. Stronger flow favors higher precipitation rates, a precipitation maximum displaced farther downwind, and greater inland and orographic enhancement. The effects of LCAPE depend upon the strength of the flow. During periods of weak flow, higher LCAPE favors lower precipitation rates, a maximum closer to the shoreline, and lesser inland and orographic enhancement. During periods of strong flow, higher LCAPE favors higher precipitation rates, a maximum displaced farther downwind, and greater inland and orographic enhancement. Banded (nonbanded) modes favor higher (lower) precipitation rates, lesser (greater) inland and orographic enhancement, and a maximum closer to the shoreline (over Tug Hill). These results, for both manually measured and radar-estimated precipitation, are robust when many lake-effect events are considered, but substantial variability exists during individual events.

Thunderstorm Characteristics during the Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems Project

AbstractThe Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign during the winter season of 2013/14 provided unprecedented data with regard to the structure and behavior of long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) lake-effect storms. One of the interesting characteristics of LLAP storm bands is their ability to initiate lightning. The OWLeS datasets provide an opportunity to examine more thoroughly the kinematics and microphysics of lake-effect thunder-snowstorms than ever before. The OWLeS facilities and field personnel observed six lake-effect thunderstorms during December–January 2013/14. Most of them produced very little lightning (fewer than six cloud-to-ground strokes or intracloud pulses recorded by the National Lightning Detection Network). The 7 January 2014 storm had over 50 strokes and pulses, however, which resulted in 20 flashes over a 6-h period (0630–1230 UTC), making it the most electrically active storm during the field campaign. Relative to the 18 December 2013 storm, which only had three flashes, the 7 January 2014 case had a deeper boundary layer and greater instability. Also, 45% of the lightning during the 7 January storm was likely due to flashes initiated by wind turbines or other man-made antennas, along with all of the lightning observed during 18 December. No lightning was documented over Lake Ontario, the primary source of instability for these storms.

Prediction of Lake-Effect Snow Using Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts and Regional Data Assimilation

Abstract Lake-effect snow (LES) is a cold-season mesoscale convective phenomenon that can lead to significant snowfall rates and accumulations in the Great Lakes region of the United States. While limited-area numerical weather prediction models have shown skill in prediction of warm-season convective storms, forecasting the sharp nature of LES precipitation timing, intensity, and location is difficult because of model error and initial and boundary condition uncertainties. Ensemble forecasting can incorporate and quantify some sources of forecast error, but ensemble design must be considered. This study examines the relative contributions of forecast uncertainties to LES forecast error using a regional convection-allowing data assimilation and ensemble prediction system. Ensembles are developed using various methods of perturbations to simulate a long-lived and high-precipitation LES event in December 2013, and forecast performance is evaluated using observations including those from the Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems (OWLeS) campaign. Model lateral boundary conditions corresponding to weather conditions beyond the Great Lakes region play an influential role in LES precipitation forecasts and their uncertainty, as evidenced by ensemble spread, particularly at lead times beyond one day. A strong forecast dependence on regional initial conditions was shown using data assimilation. This sensitivity impacts the timing and intensity of predicted precipitation, as well as band location and orientation assessed with an object-based verification approach, giving insight into the time scales of practical predictability of LES. Overall, an assimilation-cycling convection-allowing ensemble prediction system could improve future lake-effect snow precipitation forecasts and analyses and can help quantify and understand sources of forecast uncertainty.

The OWLeS IOP2b Lake-Effect Snowstorm: Mechanisms Contributing to the Tug Hill Precipitation Maximum

Lake-effect storms frequently produce a pronounced precipitation maximum over the Tug Hill Plateau (hereafter Tug Hill), which rises 500 m above Lake Ontario’s eastern shore. Here Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations are used to examine the mechanisms responsible for the Tug Hill precipitation maximum observed during IOP2b of the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field program. A key contributor was a land-breeze front that formed along Lake Ontario’s southeastern shoreline and extended inland and northeastward across Tug Hill, cutting obliquely across the lake-effect system. Localized ascent along this boundary contributed to an inland precipitation maximum even in simulations in which Tug Hill was removed. The presence of Tug Hill intensified and broadened the ascent region, increasing parameterized depositional and accretional hydrometeor growth, and reducing sublimational losses. The inland extension of the land-breeze front and its contribution to precipitation enhancement appear to be unidentified previously and may be important in other lake-effect storms over Tug Hill.

The OWLeS IOP2b Lake-Effect Snowstorm: Dynamics of the Secondary Circulation

Intense lake-effect snowfall results from a long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) precipitation band that often forms when the flow is parallel to the long axis of an elongated body of water, such as Lake Ontario. The intensity and persistence of the localized precipitation along the downwind shore and farther inland suggests the presence of a secondary circulation that helps organize such a band, and maintain it for some time as the circulation is advected inland. Unique airborne vertical-plane dual-Doppler radar data are used here to document this secondary circulation in a deep, well-organized LLAP band observed during intensive observing period (IOP) 2b of the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign. The circulation, centered on a convective updraft, intensified toward the downwind shore and only gradually weakened inland. The question arises as to what sustains such a circulation in the vertical plane across the LLAP band. WRF Model simulations indicate that the primary LLAP band and other convergence zones observed over Lake Ontario during this IOP were initiated by relatively shallow airmass boundaries, resulting from a thermal contrast (i.e., land-breeze front) and differential surface roughness across the southern shoreline. Airborne radar data near the downwind shore of the lake indicate that the secondary circulation was much deeper than these shallow boundaries and was sustained primarily by rather symmetric solenoidal forcing, enhanced by latent heat release within the updraft region.

The OWLeS IOP2b Lake-Effect Snowstorm: Shoreline Geometry and the Mesoscale Forcing of Precipitation

Long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) lake-effect precipitation systems that form when the flow is parallel to the long axis of an elongated body of water frequently produce intense, highly localized snowfall. Conceptual models of these LLAP systems typically emphasize the role of thermally forced land breezes from the flanking shorelines, with low-level convergence and ascent centered near the lake axis. In reality, other factors such as shoreline geometry and differential surface roughness can strongly influence LLAP systems. Here a WRF Model simulation is used to examine the mesoscale forcing of lake-effect precipitation over Lake Ontario during IOP2b of the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign. In the simulation, the large-scale flow, shoreline geometry, and differential surface heating and roughness contribute to the development of three major airmass boundaries. The first is a land-breeze front that forms along a bulge in the south shoreline between St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada, and Thirty Mile Point, New York; extends downstream over eastern Lake Ontario; and plays a primary role in the LLAP system development. The second is a land-breeze front that forms along the southeast shoreline near Oswego, New York; extends downstream and obliquely across the LLAP system near Tug Hill; and influences inland precipitation processes. The third is a convergence zone that extends downstream from the north shoreline near Point Petre, Ontario, Canada; and contributes to the intermittent development of lake-effect precipitation north of the primary LLAP system. These results highlight the multifaceted nature of LLAP system development over Lake Ontario, especially the contributions of shoreline geometry and mesoscale airmass boundaries.

The Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems Field Campaign: Scientific and Educational Adventures to Further Our Knowledge and Prediction of Lake-Effect Storms

Abstract Intense lake-effect snowstorms regularly develop over the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in extreme winter weather conditions with snowfalls sometimes exceeding 1 m. The Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign sought to obtain unprecedented observations of these highly complex winter storms. OWLeS employed an extensive and diverse array of instrumentation, including the University of Wyoming King Air research aircraft, five university-owned upper-air sounding systems, three Center for Severe Weather Research Doppler on Wheels radars, a wind profiler, profiling cloud and precipitation radars, an airborne lidar, mobile mesonets, deployable weather Pods, and snowfall and particle measuring systems. Close collaborations with National Weather Service Forecast Offices during and following OWLeS have provided a direct pathway for results of observational and numerical modeling analyses to improve the prediction of severe lake-effect snowstorm evolution. The roles of atmospheric boundary layer processes over heterogeneous surfaces (water, ice, and land), mixed-phase microphysics within shallow convection, topography, and mesoscale convective structures are being explored. More than 75 students representing nine institutions participated in a wide variety of data collection efforts, including the operation of radars, radiosonde systems, mobile mesonets, and snow observation equipment in challenging and severe winter weather environments.

Understanding Heavy Lake-Effect Snowfall: The Vertical Structure of Radar Reflectivity in a Deep Snowband over and downwind of Lake Ontario

AbstractThe distribution of radar-estimated precipitation from lake-effect snowbands over and downwind of Lake Ontario shows more snowfall in downwind areas than over the lake itself. Here, two nonexclusive processes contributing to this are examined: the collapse of convection that lofts hydrometeors over the lake and allows them to settle downwind; and stratiform ascent over land, due to the development of a stable boundary layer, frictional convergence, and terrain, leading to widespread precipitation there. The main data sources for this study are vertical profiles of radar reflectivity and hydrometeor vertical velocity in a well-defined, deep long-lake-axis-parallel band, observed on 11 December 2013 during the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) project. The profiles are derived from an airborne W-band Doppler radar, as well as an array of four K-band radars, an X-band profiling radar, a scanning X-band radar, and a scanning S-band radar.The presence of convection offshore is evident from deep, strong (up to 10 m s−1) updrafts producing bounded weak-echo regions and locally heavily rimed snow particles. The decrease of the standard deviation, skewness, and peak values of Doppler vertical velocity during the downwind shore crossing is consistent with the convection collapse hypothesis. Consistent with the stratiform ascent hypothesis are (i) an increase in mean vertical velocity over land; and (ii) an increasing abundance of large snowflakes at low levels and over land, due to depositional growth and aggregation, evident from flight-level and surface particle size distribution data, and from differences in reflectivity values from S-, X-, K-, and W-band radars at nearly the same time and location.

Lake-Effect Mode and Precipitation Enhancement over the Tug Hill Plateau during OWLeS IOP2b

Improved understanding of the influence of orography on lake-effect storms is crucial for weather forecasting in many lake-effect regions. The Tug Hill Plateau of northern New York (hereafter Tug Hill), rising 500 m above eastern Lake Ontario, experiences some of the most intense snowstorms in the world. Herein the authors investigate the enhancement of lake-effect snowfall over Tug Hill during IOP2b of the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign. During the 24-h study period, total liquid precipitation equivalent along the axis of maximum precipitation increased from 33.5 mm at a lowland (145 m MSL) site to 62.5 mm at an upland (385 m MSL) site, the latter yielding 101.5 cm of snow. However, the ratio of upland to lowland precipitation, or orographic ratio, varied with the mode of lake-effect precipitation. Strongly organized long-lake-axis parallel bands, some of which formed in association with the approach or passage of upper-level short-wave troughs, produced the highest precipitation rates but the smallest orographic ratios. Within these bands, radar echoes were deepest and strongest over Lake Ontario and the coastal lowlands and decreased in depth and median intensity over Tug Hill. In contrast, nonbanded broad-coverage periods exhibited the smallest precipitation rates and the largest orographic ratios, the latter reflecting an increase in the coverage and frequency of radar echoes over Tug Hill. These findings should aid operational forecasts and, given the predominance of broad-coverage lake-effect periods during the cool season, help explain the climatological snowfall maximum found over the Tug Hill Plateau.