Date Of Onset Research Articles

The role of catchment population size, data normalization, and chronology of public health interventions on wastewater-based COVID-19 viral trends

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic presented the most challenging global crisis in recent times. A pandemic caused by a novel pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 necessitated the development of innovative techniques for the monitoring and surveillance of COVID-19 infections within communities. Wastewater surveillance (WWS) is recognized as a non-invasive, cost-effective, and valuable epidemiological tool to monitor the prevalence of COVID-19 infections in communities. Seven municipal wastewater sampling sites representing distinct sewershed communities were selected for the surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Durham Region, Ontario, Canada over 8 months from March 2021 to October 2021. Viral RNA fragments of SARS-CoV-2 and the normalization target pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) were concentrated from wastewater influent using the PEG/NaCl superspeed centrifugation method and quantified using RT-qPCR. Strong significant correlations (Spearman's rs = 0.749 to 0.862, P < 0.001) were observed between SARS-CoV-2 gene copies/mL of wastewater and clinical cases reported in each delineated sewershed by onset date. Although raw wastewater offered higher correlation coefficients with clinical cases by onset date compared to PMMoV normalized data, only one site had a statistically significantly higher Spearman's correlation coefficient value for raw data than normalized data. Implementation of community stay-at-home orders and vaccinations over the course of the study period in 2021 were found to strongly correspond to decreasing SARS-CoV-2 wastewater trends in the wastewater treatment plants and upstream pumping stations.

Prognostic Factors and Impact of Therapeutic Intervention in Patients With Brain Metastases at the Initial Presentation.

Background Studies investigating the normative characteristics and prognosis of patients diagnosed with brain metastases (BMs) at the onset of cancer are scarce. Therefore, we analyzed real-world treatment options. Methodology This retrospective study enrolled 112 patients newly diagnosed with BM between May 2006 and October 2021. The variables examined included patients' age, sex, recurrence split analysis, Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), number of lesions, tumor size, peripheral brain tumor edema, targeted therapy, supportive care, chemotherapy, and date of onset. Prognostic factors were assessed using recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), graded prognostic assessment (GPA) scores, and GPS scoring, with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) andcomputed tomography (CT) studies. Primary treatment comprised whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT), with regular follow-up. Results Data from 112 survivors were analyzed, revealing a median overall survival time (MST) of 7.7 months, with some patients surviving beyond 24 months post-WBRT. Univariate analysis revealed associations between MST and RPA class, GPS, and treatment modalities (including targeted therapy and chemotherapy). RPA class 2, GPSof 0, and targeted therapy were identified as predictors of better prognosis in the multivariate analysis. In the subgroup not receiving chemotherapy, no significant difference in prognosis was seen between groups with or without WBRT. Conclusions Alongside RPA, scores indicating chronic inflammatory changes, including GPS, were confirmed as crucial prognostic factors. Moreover, treatment with molecularly targeted drugs correlated with favorable prognoses. The treatment-naïve group exhibited poorer prognoses, and WBRT was not deemed a significant prognostic factor in the chemotherapy group.

Assessing the impact of specific PM2.5-Bound metallic elements on asthma emergency department visits: A case-crossover study in Taiwan

ObjectivesThis study aims to assess the specific PM2.5-bound metallic elements that contribute to asthma emergency department visits by using a case-crossover study design. MethodsThis study analyzed data from 11,410 asthma emergency department visits as case group and 22,820 non-asthma onset dates occurring one week and two weeks preceding the case day as controls from 2017 to 2020. PM2.5 monitoring data and 35 PM.2.5-bound metallic elements from six different regions in Taiwan were collected. Conditional logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between asthma and PM2.5-bound metallic elements. ResultsOur investigation revealed a statistically significant risk of asthma emergency department visits associated with PM2.5 exposure at lag 0, 1, 2, and 3 during autumn. Additionally, PM2.5-bound hafnium (Hf), thallium (Tl), rubidium (Rb), and aluminum (Al) exhibited a consistently significant positive correlation with asthma emergency department visits at lags 1, 2, and 3. In stratified analyses by area, age, and sex, PM2.5-bound Hf showed a significant and consistent correlation. ConclusionsThis study provides evidence of PM2.5-bound metallic elements effects in asthma exacerbations, particularly for Hf. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the origins of these metallic elements and pursuing emission reductions to mitigate regional health risks.

Variant-specific Symptoms After COVID-19: A Hospital-based Study in Hiroshima.

Symptoms after novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) recovery by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 strains are unspecified. This self-administered questionnaire-based study was conducted to investigate symptoms after COVID-19 recovery at one of the main hospitals for COVID-19 treatment in Hiroshima, Japan, from September 2020 to March 2022 for patients who visited follow-up consultations after COVID-19. Study subjects were divided into four groups (Wild-type, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron periods) according to COVID-19 onset date. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to determine symptom clusters and investigate risk factors for each symptom cluster using multivariate analysis. Among 385 patients who enrolled in this study, 249 patients had any persistent symptoms at a median of 23.5 (interquartile range, 20-31) days after COVID-19 onset. Among patients with any persistent symptoms, symptom clusters including olfactory or taste disorders, respiratory symptoms, and cardiac symptoms were found. Respiratory symptoms were more frequent among patients infected in the Omicron period compared to the Wild-type period (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-7.48). Compared to patients who recovered from mild COVID-19, patients who needed oxygen or ventilation support suffered fewer post-COVID-19 respiratory symptoms (AOR 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.97) but more post-COVID-19 cardiac symptoms among them (AOR 2.67; 95% CI, 1.26-5.65). Olfactory or taste disorders were fewer among patients infected in the Omicron period compared to the Wild-type period (AOR 0.14; 95% CI, 0.04-0.46). This study revealed that symptoms after COVID-19 may vary depending on the infected strain.

Abstract PO5-16-08: Breast cancer in men: 15 years of experience in an oncology reference center in northern Mexico

Abstract Background Breast cancer in men accounts for about 1% of all breast cancers. Classic risk factors include increasing age, a family history of cancer, and mutations in predisposing genes. The alteration of the estrogen-androgen ratio has been as involved in the genesis of this cancer due to its increased risk in conditions such as liver dysfunction, obesity, marijuana use, thyroid disease, Klinefelter’s syndrome, hormonal therapies, orchitis, cryptorchidism, and testicular damage. Purpose Hereby we aim to update the analysis of the published demographic, clinical and treatment-related characteristics of this disease in our center including the last 15 years, as well as newly identified relevant variables that will serve as the basis for awareness and screening programmes for our population. Methods We performed a retrospective observational analysis of the medical records of men diagnosed with breast cancer that were treated in “Centro Universitario Contra el Cáncer” between January 2007 and December 2022. A total of seventeen cases of male breast cancer were included in the analysis. The variables included are age at diagnosis, body mass index, comorbidities, cigarette and alcohol use, method of diagnosis, histological type/grade, clinical stage, estrogen, progesterone, and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) receptor status, and treatment received. We also looked at the dates of symptom onset, diagnosis, and treatment to determine the intervals between these events. SPSS v25 software was used for data analysis. The Shapiro-Wilk test was employed to determine the normality of the variables. Variables with a normal distribution were described with median and interquartile range for the 25th and 75th percentiles. Categorical variables were expressed as absolute numbers and percentages. Results Although we found some similarities between the characteristics of our population and those reported in the American and European series, there were many significant differences. Mean age at diagnosis was 62.9 (±11.7) years, 5.5 years earlier than the reported age of 68.4 years. In terms of risk factors, our population was twice as likely to report a family history of cancer as the American series (41% vs. 15-20%). Overweight and obesity together accounted for 76.5% followed by alcohol consumption in 70.6% and cigarette smoking in 47.1% of patients. Diabetes mellitus and systemic arterial hypertension were present in 70% of our population. These entities are known to alter the estrogen-androgen ratio. The initial symptom in 88.2% of patients was a retroareolar tumor. The mean time from symptom onset to cancer diagnosis was 14.4 months. Estrogen and/or progesterone receptor status was positive in 82.3%. HER2 overexpression was not found. 17.6% of the cancers were classified as triple negative in contrast to the 0.3% reported in other series. Regarding treatment, 88.3% underwent upfront surgery, of which 76% were modified radical mastectomies. Axillary node dissection was performed in 86.6% of the cases and sentinel node biopsy in the rest. Seventy-six percent of patients received chemotherapy and radiotherapy in the adjuvant setting. Tamoxifen was the most common drug of choice (87.5%) in the patients considered as candidates for hormonal therapy Conclusions This study updates the results previously reported from our center with additional information that enabled new important conclusions to be drawn about our population. These findings provide the basis for a better understanding of this disease, which is necessary to establish public policies and recommendations to reduce the negative impact of this type of cancer. Table. Demographic and Clinical Characteristics of the Patients Citation Format: Fernando Peña, Javier A. Martínez-Moyano, Francisco Alvarado-Villarreal, Carlos Salazar-Mejía, David Hernández-Barajas, Oscar Vidal-Gutiérrez. Breast cancer in men: 15 years of experience in an oncology reference center in northern Mexico [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO5-16-08.

Agronomic monsoon onset definitions to support planting decisions for rainfed rice in Bangladesh

The usability gaps between climate information producers and users have always been an issue in climate services. This study aims to tackle the gap for rice farmers in Bangladesh by exploring the potential value of tailored agronomic monsoon onset definitions. Summer aman rice is primarily cultivated under rainfed conditions, and farmers rely largely on monsoon rainfall and its onset for crop establishment. However, farmers’ perception of the arrival of sufficient rains does not necessarily coincide with meteorological definitions of monsoon onset. Therefore, localized agronomic definitions of monsoon onset need to be developed and evaluated to advance in the targeted actionable climate forecast. We analyzed historical daily rainfall from four locations across a north-south gradient in Bangladesh and defined dynamic definitions of monsoon onset based on a set of local parameters. The agronomic onset definition was evaluated in terms of attainable yields simulated by a rice simulation model compared to results obtained using conventional meteorological onset parameters defined by the amount of rainfall received and static onset dates. Our results show that average simulated yields increase up to 7 – 9% and probabilities of getting lower yields are reduced when the year-to-year varying dynamic onset is used over the two drier locations under fully rainfed conditions. It is mainly due to earlier transplanting dates, avoiding the impact of drought experienced with early monsoon demise. However, no yield increases are observed over the two wetter locations. This study shows the potential benefits of generating “localized and translated” climate predictions.

The Sensitivity of Polar Mesospheric Clouds to Mesospheric Temperature and Water Vapor

Polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) data obtained from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM)/Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) experiment and Himawari-8/Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) observations are analyzed for multi-year climatology and interannual variations. Linkages between PMCs, mesospheric temperature, and water vapor (H2O) are further investigated with data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Our analysis shows that PMC onset date and occurrence rate are strongly dependent on the atmospheric environment, i.e., the underlying seasonal behavior of temperature and water vapor. Upper-mesospheric dehydration by PMCs is evident in the MLS water vapor observations. The spatial patterns of the depleted water vapor correspond to the PMC occurrence region over the Arctic and Antarctic during the days after the summer solstice. The year-to-year variabilities in PMC occurrence rates and onset dates are highly correlated with mesospheric temperature and H2O. They show quasi-quadrennial oscillation (QQO) with 4–5-year periods, particularly in the southern hemisphere (SH). The combined influence of mesospheric cooling and the mesospheric H2O increase provides favorable conditions for PMC formation. The global increase in mesospheric H2O during the last decade may explain the increased PMC occurrence in the northern hemisphere (NH). Although mesospheric temperature and H2O exhibit a strong 11-year variation, little solar cycle signatures are found in the PMC occurrence during 2007–2021.

P074 Diagnostic Journeys of Patients with Hypophosphatasia

Abstract Background/Aims Hypophosphatasia (HPP) is an ultra-rare genetic disorder characterised by low activity of tissue non-specific alkaline phosphatase (TNAP). Due to heterogeneity of clinical presentation and lack of definitive biochemical testing, misdiagnosis and diagnostic delay are common. Methods We used information reported by HPP patients to the Rare and Undiagnosed Diseases Study (RUDY) online registry (www.rudystudy.org). We included patients with a self-reported diagnosis of HPP and information on at least one of our outcomes. We described their diagnostic journey, including diagnostic delays, initial symptoms, incorrect diagnoses and healthcare professionals seen. Results 16 participants with a self-reported diagnosis of HPP were included in the analysis with 14/16 female. Of those reporting the date of initial symptom onset, 9/14 participants had symptom onset before the age of 18, whereas five had symptom onset in adulthood. The median time from symptom onset to HPP final diagnosis was 26.5 years (N = 8, IQR 11.2 to 34.6). From the first GP visit related HPP to final diagnosis the median time was 9.5 years (N = 6, IQR 6.2 to 11.1), and from the first hospital visit related to HPP, the median time to final diagnosis was 3.9 years (N = 10, IQR 0.8 to 10.5). Among participants reporting initial symptoms (N = 13), 16 categories of initial symptom were reported, with a median of two initial symptom categories per participant (IQR 1 to 2). The most prevalent initial symptom was pain (10/13, 77%). Of these 10 participants, four had lower limb pain, one had upper limb pain, one had back pain, and five had pain of unspecified location. Skeletal deformity at birth, dental manifestations, joint swelling, and infantile feeding problems were each present in 2/13 participants (15%). Among participants reporting whether they had received other diagnoses prior to that of HPP (N = 13), nine participants (75%) received at least one other diagnosis, with diagnoses of 10 different conditions reported across the cohort. The most common other diagnosis was fibromyalgia (4/13, 31%), followed by hypermobility (2/13, 15%). 21 different types of healthcare professionals were seen prior to final diagnosis. General Practitioners were the most commonly consulted (9/14, 64%). This was followed by allied health professionals (8/14, 57%). Of the eight participants seeing allied health professionals, all eight saw physiotherapists, and 4 (29% of total) also saw at least one other allied health professional. Other types of healthcare professional seen by multiple responders included orthopaedic surgeons (5/14, 36%), rheumatologists (5/14, 36%), geneticists (4/14, 29%), endocrinologists (3/14, 21%), metabolic specialists (3/14, 21%) and dentists (2/14, 14%). Conclusion Patients typically present with a cluster of symptoms, often including pain, and are often seen by general practitioners and physiotherapists before diagnosis. Increasing awareness of HPP in these professions may improve early recognition of the disease. Disclosure D. Marsden: None. R. Ridley: None.

New citizen science initiative enhances flowering onset predictions for fruit trees in Great Britain.

Accurately predicting flowering phenology in fruit tree orchards is crucial for timely pest and pathogen treatments and for the introduction of managed pollinators. Making predictions requires large datasets of flowering dates, which are often limited to single locations. Consequently, the resulting phenology predictions are not representative across larger geographic areas. Citizen science may offer a solution to this data gap, with millions of biological records across a wide range of taxa recorded annually. Here, a new citizen science platform called 'FruitWatch' is introduced, monitoring the flowering dates of fruit trees in Great Britain. The objectives of this study are to assess the suitability of FruitWatch submissions to (i) detect latitudinal variation in flowering onset dates, (ii) parameterize existing phenology modelling frameworks, and (iii) make predictions of flowering onset dates across Great Britain for a single year. Using data for four cultivars from 2022, linear models reveal significant latitudinal delays in flowering onset of as much as 1.49 ± 0.63days per degree latitude further north (Pear 'Conference'), with significant delays also seen in Cherry 'Stella' (1.39 ± 0.48days) and Plum 'Victoria' (1.22 ± 0.18days). FruitWatch informed phenology modelling frameworks performed well for predicting flowering onset, with root mean square error values of predictions from validation datasets ranging between 4.6 ('Victoria') and 8.0 ('Conference') days. The parameterized models also provided realistic flowering onset predictions across Great Britain in 2022, with earlier flowering dates predicted in warmer areas. These findings demonstrate the potential of citizen science data to offer growers cultivar- and location-specific phenology predictions to help inform orchard management.

Mapping Potential Timing of Ice Algal Blooms From Satellite

AbstractAs Arctic sea ice and its overlying snow cover thin, more light penetrates into the ice and upper ocean, shifting the phenology of algal growth within the bottom of sea ice, with cascading impacts on higher trophic levels of the Arctic marine ecosystem. While field data or autonomous observatories provide direct measurements of the coupled sea ice‐algal system, they are limited in space and time. Satellite observations of key sea ice variables that control the amount of light penetrating through sea ice offer the possibility to map the under‐ice light field across the entire Arctic basin. This study provides the first satellite‐based estimates of potential sea ice‐associated algal bloom onset dates since the launch of CryoSat‐2 and explores how a changing snowpack may have shifted bloom onset timings over the last four decades.

Generative Bayesian modeling to nowcast the effective reproduction number from line list data with missing symptom onset dates.

The time-varying effective reproduction number Rt is a widely used indicator of transmission dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Timely estimates of Rt can be obtained from reported cases counted by their date of symptom onset, which is generally closer to the time of infection than the date of report. Case counts by date of symptom onset are typically obtained from line list data, however these data can have missing information and are subject to right truncation. Previous methods have addressed these problems independently by first imputing missing onset dates, then adjusting truncated case counts, and finally estimating the effective reproduction number. This stepwise approach makes it difficult to propagate uncertainty and can introduce subtle biases during real-time estimation due to the continued impact of assumptions made in previous steps. In this work, we integrate imputation, truncation adjustment, and Rt estimation into a single generative Bayesian model, allowing direct joint inference of case counts and Rt from line list data with missing symptom onset dates. We then use this framework to compare the performance of nowcasting approaches with different stepwise and generative components on synthetic line list data for multiple outbreak scenarios and across different epidemic phases. We find that under reporting delays realistic for hospitalization data (50% of reports delayed by more than a week), intermediate smoothing, as is common practice in stepwise approaches, can bias nowcasts of case counts and Rt, which is avoided in a joint generative approach due to shared regularization of all model components. On incomplete line list data, a fully generative approach enables the quantification of uncertainty due to missing onset dates without the need for an initial multiple imputation step. In a real-world comparison using hospitalization line list data from the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland, we observe the same qualitative differences between approaches. The generative modeling components developed in this work have been integrated and further extended in the R package epinowcast, providing a flexible and interpretable tool for real-time surveillance.

Remote Midlatitude Control of Rainfall Onset at the Southern African Tropical Edge

Abstract Rainfall over the southern African tropical boundary is highly variable, particularly around the onset of the summer rains. However, understanding of the causes of variability in onset timing is poor. A lack of observational data in the region is compounded by the complexity of climate dynamics and variability at the interface of the tropics and the midlatitudes. The key to onset over the region is the Congo air boundary (CAB), a distinguishing circulation feature present in September and declining in frequency until November. The CAB is crucial to early season rainfall; precipitation is broadly inhibited when the CAB is present, while its breakdown allows large-scale rainfall and onset over central southern Africa. This work identifies a remote midlatitude influence on the timing of CAB breakdown using the high-resolution reanalysis dataset ERA5. Propagating and (upstream) breaking low-wavenumber Rossby waves in the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet are shown to be related to &gt;70% of breakdown events. Breakdown is forced by 1) the replacement of subsidence over eastern southern Africa with synoptically forced ascent and 2) wind field modification that leads to positive 850-hPa continental convergence anomalies and enhanced moisture advection from the Congo basin and Indian Ocean. Upper-level anticyclonic vorticity tendency induced by enhanced convection slows Rossby wave propagation aloft, contributing to wave breaking and the persistence of conditions favorable to convection. The identification of this midlatitude influence on CAB breakdown reveals new potential sources of predictability for onset and demonstrates the significant equatorward extent of midlatitude influences to the tropical edge. Significance Statement This study aims to improve our understanding of the causes of variability in the start date of the summer rainy season in central southern Africa. The research reveals that certain upper-level waves in the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet are associated with patterns of weather that force a large-scale transition from dry pre-onset conditions to widespread rainfall in a time scale of 2–5 days, and that these waves account for a large proportion of such transitions. This finding is of interest to subseasonal weather forecasters and may help to improve the long-range forecasting of onset date.

Seasonal development rhythm of representatives of the genus &lt;i&gt;Spiraea&lt;/i&gt; L. during introduction in the European North-East of Russia (Komi Republic)

Shrubs of the genus Spiraea L. are distinguished by a great variety of ornamental features, but are still underused in ornamental horticulture in the northern territories. The issues of passing the seasonal cycle of plants under new harsh climatic conditions remain fragmentarily studied. The research was aimed at examining the features and identifying patterns of the seasonal rhythm of introduced species of the genus Spiraea L. The research was carried out on the basis of the collection of the Botanical Garden of the Institute of Biology, located in the middle taiga subzone of Komi Republic. Plants to be observed included nine species of three taxonomic sections of the genus Spiraea L. The long-term averages of phenological phases and periods of seasonal rhythm of species, as well as variability of features based on the results of phenological observations for six years in the period 2013-2018 were determined. The vegetation period of plants under new conditions lasts up to 145 days and corresponds to the vegetation period of the introduction station. Shoot growth lasts from 65 to 80 days in different species. The sequence of flowering, differences in the dates of onset and duration of flowering in different Spiraea species of three sections were noted. The duration of the prefloral period ranges from 18 to 41 %, the flowering period – from 8 to 31 % of the total vegetation period of plants. The total duration of flowering of the studied species accounts for almost 100 days. The least variability is specific for the period of vegetation of species (variability index up to 5.9 %), the greatest variability – for the period of flowering of plants (variability – up to 26.7 %). The taxonomic factor (85-91 %) was revealed to influence the passage of the generative phases of the seasonal cycle. The correlation interaction was determined between the main phenophases and the early leaf fall phase. The seasonal type of growth and phenological development of Spiraea plants is characterized by an early beginning and end of vegetation, a relatively short period of growth of shoots, and the consistency of average phenological dates. This phenorhythm of the studied species of the genus Spiraea demonstrates their potential for ornamental gardening in the northern region.

Depression Onset After a Spouse’s Cardiovascular Event

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a known risk factor for depression, evidence is lacking regarding whether and to what extent a spouse's CVD is associated with the subsequent mental health of individuals. To examine the association between CVD onset in spouses and subsequent depression. This cohort study examined 277 142 matched married couples enrolled in the Japan Health Insurance Association health insurance program between April 2015 and March 2022, covering approximately 40% of the working-age population in Japan. Index individuals (primary insured) whose spouses (dependent) experienced incident CVD between April 2016 and March 2022 were 1:1 matched to controls whose spouses did not experience CVD. Matching was based on age, sex, income, or the onset date of the spouses' CVD. Data analysis was conducted from April 2016 to March 2022. Spousal onset of CVD between fiscal years 2016 and 2021. The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes were used to identify the composite CVD outcomes (stroke, heart failure, and myocardial infarction). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the association between spouses' new-onset CVD and individuals' depression, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and comorbidities of index individuals (diabetes, hypertension, and CVD) and spouses (diabetes, hypertension, and depression). Subgroup analyses were conducted according to sex, age, income levels, and history of CVD. Among 277 142 matched pairs of married couples, 263 610 (95.1%) had a male index individual; the mean (SD) age of index individuals was 58.2 (10.2) years. A new onset of depression was observed in 4876 individuals (1.8%). In multivariable Cox models, there was an association between the spouse's CVD and the individuals' depression (hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.07-1.20]). The subgroup analysis found no evidence of heterogeneity in sex, age, income level, or CVD history. The results were consistent when additionally adjusted for health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and use of antihypertensive drugs) and objectively measured physical health conditions (body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, glucose levels, and estimated glomerular filtration rate) (hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.06-1.28]). In this nationwide cohort study of matched couples, a spouse's onset of CVD was associated with an increased risk of an individual's depression. These findings highlight the importance of preventive care for mental health disorders in individuals whose spouses experience incident CVD.

History of smallpox vaccination and marked clinical expression of mpox among cases notified in France from May to July 2022

ObjectivesThe aim was to estimate the effect of reported history of smallpox vaccination prior to 1980 on clinical expression of mpox. MethodsWe included all confirmed mpox cases identified by the national mpox surveillance system in France between May and July 2022. Cases tested positive for monkeypox virus or orthopoxviruses by PCR. Cases were interviewed by phone using a questionnaire documenting demographics, symptoms and exposures. To estimate the effect of smallpox vaccination on the presence of marked mpox symptoms (association of fever, lymphadenopathy and extensive mucocutaneous lesions), we estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors. ResultsThere were 1888 confirmed mpox cases with date of symptom onset between 7 May and 31 July 2022. Overall, 7% (93/1394) presented marked mpox symptoms. Among patients who provided information about their vaccination status, 14% (207/1469) reported smallpox vaccination prior to 1980. The proportion of cases with marked symptoms was 2% (3/170) among those reporting smallpox vaccination prior to 1980 and 8% (76/974) among those who reported no vaccination. The proportion of marked symptoms was four times lower among cases reporting previous smallpox vaccination than in cases reporting no vaccination (PR, 0.24; 95% CI: 0.08–0.76). There was no evidence of an effect of smallpox vaccination on development of complications (PR, 0.65; 95% CI: 0.35–1.22) or hospitalization due to mpox (PR, 0.64; 95% CI: 0.23–1.80). DiscussionOur results suggest that smallpox vaccination during childhood attenuated the clinical expression of monkeypox virus infection, but there was no evidence of an effect on complications or hospitalization.

Prognostic significance of the chemerin level in coronavirus disease 2019 patients.

Increased serum chemerin levels have been reported in several inflammatory diseases. Few studies have investigated the relationship between chemerin and clinical features of COVID-19. Thus, chemerin may modulate the development and progression of COVID-19. We compared the serum chemerin concentration between patients with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection and its association with the severity and prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia. This is a prospective, single-center, cross-sectional study. We enrolled COVID-19 patients who presented to our tertiary hospital and healthy controls. The COVID-19 patients were conducted and the dates of symptom onset were recorded. After admission to the hospital and stabilization, blood samples were obtained for routine hemogram, biochemistry, and chemerin. The chemerin level was 37.93 ± 17.3 ng/mL in patients followed in the ICU, 29.41 ± 12.79 ng/mL in inpatients, 30.48 ± 10.86 ng/mL in outpatients, and 25.12 ± 9.82 ng/mL in healthy controls. The difference between patients treated in the ICU and healthy controls was significant (P < .001). The high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), ferritin, procalcitonin (PCT), and D-dimer levels were significantly higher in the intensive care unit (ICU) group (P < .001). Moreover, the chemerin level of patients who died was significantly higher than that of those who survived (P < .001). The chemerin level was increased in COVID-19 patients and also increased with increasing disease severity. The chemerin level was higher in the COVID-19 patients than healthy controls and was significantly higher in patients who died compared to those who did not.

440 Retrospective Assessment of the Clinical Timeline and Predictors for Vasospasm Severity in Traumatic Brain Injury Within a Safety-Net Hospital Population

INTRODUCTION: Unlike aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, vasospasm following traumatic brain injury (TBI) is poorly understood and no guidelines-based recommendations for surveillance exist. METHODS: TBI patients admitted to the surgical ICU 11/2014-12/2020 with 2+ instances of TCD-diagnosed vasospasm were included. Clinical timelines, TBI severity by Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) (mild = 13-15, moderate = 9-12, severe = 3-8), presence of subarachnoid hemorrhage (tSAH), and vasospasm severity (mild, moderate, or severe) were extracted from records. One-way ANOVA analysis compared the highest severity of vasospasm noted with date of onset and total days of vasospasm. Significant differences in means were further analyzed with Games-Howell post-hoc test. Stata® determined the dependence of vasospasm severity upon imaging findings or the GCS via Chi2 analysis. RESULTS: Forty-four patients were identified (31 male, 13 female, median age 40 (15-92) years). Amongst mild TBIs (13), vasospasm was mild (9), moderate (1), and severe (3). For moderate TBIs (2), vasospasm was mild (1), moderate (0), and severe (1). For severe TBIs (29), vasospasm was mild (16), moderate (6), and severe (7). Thirty-two patients had tSAH, 19 with mild, 6 moderate, and 7 with severe vasospasm. Of the 12 patients without tSAH, 7 had mild, 1 moderate, and 4 with severe vasospasm. Median time to onset did not differ between mild (Hospital Day (HD) 3), moderate (HD 4), and severe (HD 3) vasospasm (p = 0.47). Mean duration of mild vasospasm (2.35 days) differed from severe vasospasm (6.73 days), (p &lt; 0.05). Neither presence of tSAH nor severity of TBI was related to severity of vasospasm (p = 0.11 and p = 0.61). CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that post-traumatic vasospasm can impact TBI patients, early, regardless of TBI severity or the presence of tSAH, suggesting early and routine surveillance for PTV may be warranted in all critically ill TBI patients.

Validation of alopecia coding in US claims data among women of childbearing age.

Accurately identifying alopecia in claims data is important to study this rare medication side effect. To develop and validate a claims-based algorithm to identify alopecia in women of childbearing age. We linked electronic health records from a large healthcare system in Massachusetts (Mass General Brigham) with Medicaid claims data from 2016 through 2018 to identify all women aged 18 to 50 years with an ICD-10 code for alopecia, including alopecia areata, androgenic alopecia, non-scarring alopecia, or cicatricial alopecia, from a visit to the MGB system. Using eight predefined algorithms to identify alopecia in Medicaid claims data, we randomly selected 300 women for whom we reviewed their charts to validate the alopecia diagnosis. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were computed for the primary algorithm and seven algorithm variations, stratified by race. Out of 300 patients with at least 1 ICD-10 code for alopecia in the Medicaid claims, 286 had chart-confirmed alopecia (PPV = 95.3%). The algorithm requiring two diagnosis codes plus one prescription claim for alopecia treatment identified 55 patients (PPV = 100%). The algorithm requiring 1 diagnosis code for alopecia plus 1 procedure claim for intralesional triamcinolone injection identified 35 patients (PPV = 100%). Across all 8 algorithms tested, the PPV varied between 95.3% and 100%. The PPV for alopecia ranged from 94% to 100% in White and 96%-100% in 48 non-White women. The exact date of alopecia onset was difficult to determine in charts. At least one recorded ICD-10 code for alopecia in claims data identified alopecia in women of childbearing age with high accuracy.

The epidemic forest reveals the spatial pattern of the spread of acute respiratory infections in Jakarta, Indonesia

Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is a communicable disease of the respiratory tract that implies impaired breathing. The infection can expand from one to the neighboring areas at a region-scale level through a human mobility network. Specific to this study, we leverage a record of ARI incidences in four periods of outbreaks for 42 regions in Jakarta to study its spatio-temporal spread using the concept of the epidemic forest. This framework generates a forest-like graph representing an explicit spread of disease that takes the onset time, spatio-temporal distance, and case prevalence into account. To support this framework, we use logistic curves to infer the onset time of the outbreak for each region. The result shows that regions with earlier onset dates tend to have a higher burden of cases, leading to the idea that the culprits of the disease spread are those with a high load of cases. To justify this, we generate the epidemic forest for the four periods of ARI outbreaks and identify the implied dominant trees (that with the most children cases). We find that the primary infected city of the dominant tree has a relatively higher burden of cases than other trees. In addition, we can investigate the timely (Rt\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_t$$\\end{document}) and spatial reproduction number (Rc\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_c$$\\end{document}) by directly evaluating them from the inferred graphs. We find that Rt\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_t$$\\end{document} for dominant trees are significantly higher than non-dominant trees across all periods, with regions in western Jakarta tend to have higher values of Rc\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_c$$\\end{document}. Lastly, we provide simulated-implied graphs by suppressing 50% load of cases of the primary infected city in the dominant tree that results in a reduced Rc\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R_c$$\\end{document}, suggesting a potential target of intervention to depress the overall ARI spread.

Chaotic and Quasi-periodic Regimes in the Covid-19 Mortality Data

It has been reported by World Health Organization (WHO) that the Covid-19 epidemic due to the Sar Cov-2 virus, which started in China and affected the whole world, caused the death of approximately six million people over three years. Global disasters such as pandemics not only cause deaths but also bring other global catastrophic problems. Therefore, governments need to perform very serious strategic operations to prevent both infection and death. It is accepted that even if there are vaccines developed against the virus, it will never be possible to predict very complex spread dynamics and reach a spread pattern due to new variants and other parameters. In the present study, four countries: Türkiye, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom have been selected since they exhibit similar characteristics in terms of the pandemic’s onset date, wave patterns, measures taken against the outbreak, and the vaccines used. Additionally, they are all located on the same continent. For these reasons, the three-year Covid-19 data of these countries were analyzed. Detailed chaotic attractors analyses were performed for each country and Lyapunov exponents were obtained. We showed that the three-year times series is chaotic for the chosen countries. In this sense, our results are compatible with the results of the Covid-19 analysis results in the literature. However, unlike previous Covid-19 studies, we also found out that there are chaotic, periodic, or quasi-periodic sub-series within these chaotic time series. The obtained results are of great importance in terms of revealing the details of the dynamics of the pandemic.