Ongoing Ebola Virus Disease Research Articles

Investigating the Circulation of Ebola Viruses in Bats during the Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks in the Equateur and North Kivu Provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2018

With 12 of the 31 outbreaks, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is highly affected by Ebolavirus disease (EVD). To better understand the role of bats in the ecology of Ebola viruses, we conducted surveys in bats during two recent EVD outbreaks and in two areas with previous outbreaks. Dried blood spots were tested for antibodies to ebolaviruses and oral and rectal swabs were screened for the presence of filovirus using a broadly reactive semi-nested RT-PCR. Between 2018 and 2020, 892 (88.6%) frugivorous and 115 (11.4%) insectivorous bats were collected. Overall, 11/925 (1.2%) to 100/925 (10.8%) bats showed antibodies to at least one Ebolavirus antigen depending on the positivity criteria. Antibodies were detected in fruit bats from the four sites and from species previously documented to harbor Ebola antibodies or RNA. We tested for the first time a large number of bats during ongoing EVD outbreaks in DRC, but no viral RNA was detected in the 676 sampled bats. Our study illustrates the difficulty to document the role of bats as a source of Ebolaviruses as they might clear quickly the virus. Given the increasing frequency of EVD outbreaks, more studies on the animal reservoir are urgently needed.

Methanol Fixation, but not Giemsa Staining, Inactivates Ebola and Lassa Viruses in Peripheral Blood Smears Made on Plastic Microscope Slides

Diseases caused by many highly pathogenic viruses, including Ebola virus (EBOV) and Lassa virus (LASV), present with nonspecific signs and symptoms that overlap with common tropical diseases such as malaria. Initial diagnostic tests performed on patients under investigation for viral hemorrhagic fevers routinely include analysis of peripheral blood smears to detect and quantify Plasmodium species. In light of recent and ongoing Ebola virus disease and Lassa fever epidemics, clinical laboratories around the world require protocols for dealing with highly infectious specimens from patients with suspected or confirmed high-consequence diseases. Few validated protocols for safe analysis of peripheral blood smears are available, revealing a need for further research. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two plastic microscope slide types that offer safe alternatives to glass slides, determined the temporal parameters required to inactivate EBOV and LASV in thin blood smears by methanol fixation, and assessed the virucidal activity of Giemsa stain. Both types of plastic microscope slides performed optimally; there were no significant differences in blood cell morphology or tinctorial properties nor were differences noted in Plasmodium ovale morphology or staining, when compared with glass slides. For both EBOV and LASV, viable viruses were not detected in thin blood smears following fixation in absolute methanol for at least 2 minutes. By contrast, viable EBOV and LASV were recovered from all Giemsa-stained thick blood smears.

Kikwit Ebola Virus Disease Progression in the Rhesus Monkey Animal Model.

Ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo follow the largest recorded outbreak in Western Africa (2013–2016). To combat outbreaks, testing of medical countermeasures (therapeutics or vaccines) requires a well-defined, reproducible, animal model. Here we present Ebola virus disease kinetics in 24 Chinese-origin rhesus monkeys exposed intramuscularly to a highly characterized, commercially available Kikwit Ebola virus Filovirus Animal Non-Clinical Group (FANG) stock. Until reaching predetermined clinical disease endpoint criteria, six animals underwent anesthesia for repeated clinical sampling and were compared to six that did not. Groups of three animals were euthanized and necropsied on days 3, 4, 5, and 6 post-exposure, respectively. In addition, three uninfected animals served as controls. Here, we present detailed characterization of clinical and laboratory disease kinetics and complete blood counts, serum chemistries, Ebola virus titers, and disease kinetics for future medical countermeasure (MCM) study design and control data. We measured no statistical difference in hematology, chemistry values, or time to clinical endpoint in animals that were anesthetized for clinical sampling during the acute disease compared to those that were not.

Preparedness Tested: Severe Cerebral Malaria Presenting as a High-Risk Person Under Investigation for Ebola Virus Disease at a US Hospital.

In 2019, a 42-year-old African man who works as an Ebola virus disease (EVD) researcher traveled from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), near an ongoing EVD epidemic, to Philadelphia and presented to the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania Emergency Department with altered mental status, vomiting, diarrhea, and fever. He was classified as a "wet" person under investigation for EVD, and his arrival activated our hospital emergency management command center and bioresponse teams. He was found to be in septic shock with multisystem organ dysfunction, including circulatory dysfunction, encephalopathy, metabolic lactic acidosis, acute kidney injury, acute liver injury, and diffuse intravascular coagulation. Critical care was delivered within high-risk pathogen isolation in the ED and in our Special Treatment Unit until a diagnosis of severe cerebral malaria was confirmed and EVD was definitively excluded.This report discusses our experience activating a longitudinal preparedness program designed for rare, resource-intensive events at hospitals physically remote from any active epidemic but serving a high-volume international air travel port-of-entry.

Intervention To Stop Transmission of Imported Pneumonic Plague - Uganda, 2019.

Plague, an acute zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is endemic in the West Nile region of northwestern Uganda and neighboring northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (1-4). The illness manifests in multiple clinical forms, including bubonic and pneumonic plague. Pneumonic plague is rare, rapidly fatal, and transmissible from person to person via respiratory droplets. On March 4, 2019, a patient with suspected pneumonic plague was hospitalized in West Nile, Uganda, 4 days after caring for her sister, who had come to Uganda from DRC and died shortly thereafter, and 2 days after area officials received a message from a clinic in DRC warning of possible plague. The West Nile-based Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) plague program, together with local health officials, commenced a multipronged response to suspected person-to-person transmission of pneumonic plague, including contact tracing, prophylaxis, and education. Plague was laboratory-confirmed, and no additional transmission occurred in Uganda. This event transpired in the context of heightened awareness of cross-border disease spread caused by ongoing Ebola virus disease transmission in DRC, approximately 400 km to the south. Building expertise in areas of plague endemicity can provide the rapid detection and effective response needed to mitigate epidemic spread and minimize mortality. Cross-border agreements can improve ability to respond effectively.

COVID-19 in Africa amidst an ongoing Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in DRC. How prepared is the continent?

As the world grapples to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, Africa continues to battle an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Ebola virus disease.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe and frequently lethal disease caused by Ebola virus (EBOV). EVD outbreaks typically start from a single case of probable zoonotic transmission, followed by human-to-human transmission via direct contact or contact with infected bodily fluids or contaminated fomites. EVD has a high case–fatality rate; it is characterized by fever, gastrointestinal signs and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Diagnosis requires a combination of case definition and laboratory tests, typically real-time reverse transcription PCR to detect viral RNA or rapid diagnostic tests based on immunoassays to detect EBOV antigens. Recent advances in medical countermeasure research resulted in the recent approval of an EBOV-targeted vaccine by European and US regulatory agencies. The results of a randomized clinical trial of investigational therapeutics for EVD demonstrated survival benefits from two monoclonal antibody products targeting the EBOV membrane glycoprotein. New observations emerging from the unprecedented 2013–2016 Western African EVD outbreak (the largest in history) and the ongoing EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have substantially improved the understanding of EVD and viral persistence in survivors of EVD, resulting in new strategies toward prevention of infection and optimization of clinical management, acute illness outcomes and attendance to the clinical care needs of patients.

A potential roadmap to overcome the current eastern DRC Ebola virus disease outbreak: From a computational perspective

The ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is raising unprecedented health concerns, with potential to wipe out large proportions of the population in this part of the world. Established control strategies to contain the outbreak are failing due to several reasons, including lack of a data/information repository and ongoing violence and armed conflict. In this paper, we propose a potential roadmap from a computational perspective, which may provide solutions to contain the current outbreak, predict future outbreaks and facilitate development of novel solutions and therapeutics. This roadmap includes the implementation of an integrated information system through a centralized data coordinating center unifying existing and future EVD data and information to enhance innovative EVD translational research. This work will leverage off tools, guidelines and protocols developed by established data coordinating centers based in Africa or centers that address infectious disease outbreaks. The proposed EVD computational strategy is expected to inform optimal strategies at the national or global level towards strengthened responses to future EVD outbreaks and potential emergency of therapy resistant.

Lessons Learned from Reinforcing Epidemiologic Surveillance During the 2017 Ebola Outbreak in the Likati District, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

On May 12, 2017, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) publicly declared an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Likati District of the Bas-Uélé Province, 46 days after the index case became symptomatic. The delayed EVD case detection and reporting highlights the importance of establishing real-time surveillance, consistent with the Global Health Security Agenda. We describe lessons learned from implementing improved EVD case detection and reporting strategies at the outbreak epicenter and make recommendations for future response efforts. The strategies included daily coordination meetings to enhance effective and efficient outbreak response activities, assessment and adaptation of case definitions and reporting tools, establishment of a community alert system using context-appropriate technology, training facility and community health workers on adapted case definitions and reporting procedures, development of context-specific plans for outbreak data management, and strengthened operational support for communications and information-sharing networks. Post-outbreak, surveillance officials should preemptively plan for the next outbreak by developing emergency response plans, evaluating the case definitions and reporting tools used, retraining on revised case definitions, and developing responsive strategies for overcoming telecommunications and technology challenges. The ongoing EVD outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces of DRC, currently the second largest EVD outbreak in history, demonstrates that documentation of successful context-specific strategies and tools are needed to combat the next outbreak. The lessons learned from the rapid containment of the EVD outbreak in Likati can be applied to the DRC and other rural low-resource settings to ensure readiness for future zoonotic disease outbreaks.

Assessment of a health facility based active case finding system for Ebola virus disease in Mbandaka, Democratic Republic of the Congo, June\u2013July 2018

BackgroundThe ninth outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo occurred in Équateur Province from 8 May-24 July 2018. A system of health facility (HF)-based active case finding (ACF) was implemented in Mbandaka, a regional capital with four confirmed EVD cases, following completion of contact tracing. The goal of this HF-based ACF system was to look for undetected EVD cases among patients that visited HFs beginning one week prior to the system’s implementation.MethodsFrom 23 June – 24 July 2018, ACF teams visited HFs in Mbandaka and reviewed all medical records as far back as 17 June for any consultations meeting the suspected EVD case definition. The teams then assessed whether to validate these as suspected EVD cases based on factors such as recovery, epidemiological links, and their clinical judgement. ACF teams also assessed HFs’ awareness of EVD symptoms and the process for alerting suspected cases. We calculated descriptive statistics regarding the characteristics of reviewed consultations, alert cases, and visited HFs. We also used univariate and multivariate random effects logistic regression models to evaluate the impact of repeated ACF visits to the same HF on the staff’s awareness of EVD.ResultsACF teams reviewed 37,746 consultations, of which 690 met the definition of a suspected case of EVD. Two were validated as suspected EVD cases and transferred to the Ebola Treatment Unit for testing; both tested negative. Repeated ACF visits to the same HF were significantly associated with improved EVD awareness (p < 0.001) in univariate and multivariate analyses.ConclusionHF-based ACF during EVD outbreaks may improve EVD awareness and reveal many individuals meeting the suspected case definition. However, many who meet this definition may not have EVD, depending on the population size covered by ACF and amount of ongoing EVD transmission. Given the burdensome procedure of testing suspected EVD cases, future HF-based ACF systems would benefit from improved clarity on which patients require further testing.

Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January-September 2019.

The ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic (August 2018─October 2019) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has been exacerbated by deliberate attacks on healthcare workers despite vaccination efforts. Using a mathematical/statistical modelling framework, we present the quantified effective reproduction number (R t) at national and regional levels as at 29 September. The weekly trend in R t displays fluctuations while our recent national-level R t falls slightly above 1.0 with substantial uncertainty, which suggests improvements in epidemic control.

Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019.

BackgroundAs of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak.MethodsFor short- and long-term projections, we modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process that assumes gradually quenching transmission rates estimated from past EVD outbreaks, with outbreak trajectories conditioned on agreement with the course of the current outbreak, and with multiple levels of vaccination coverage. We used two regression models to estimate similar projection periods. Short- and long-term projections were estimated using negative binomial autoregression and Theil-Sen regression, respectively. We also used Gott’s rule to estimate a baseline minimum-information projection. We then constructed an ensemble of forecasts to be compared and recorded for future evaluation against final outcomes. From August 20, 2018 to February 25, 2019, short-term model projections were validated against known case counts.ResultsDuring validation of short-term projections, from one week to four weeks, we found models consistently scored higher on shorter-term forecasts. Based on case counts as of February 25, the stochastic model projected a median case count of 933 cases by February 18 (95% prediction interval: 872–1054) and 955 cases by March 4 (95% prediction interval: 874–1105), while the auto-regression model projects median case counts of 889 (95% prediction interval: 876–933) and 898 (95% prediction interval: 877–983) cases for those dates, respectively. Projected median final counts range from 953 to 1,749. Although the outbreak is already larger than all past Ebola outbreaks other than the 2013–2016 outbreak of over 26,000 cases, our models do not project that it is likely to grow to that scale. The stochastic model estimates that vaccination coverage in this outbreak is lower than reported in its trial setting in Sierra Leone.ConclusionsOur projections are concentrated in a range up to about 300 cases beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, it is not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. Prospective validation of our models in real time allowed us to generate more accurate short-term forecasts, and this process may prove useful for future real-time short-term forecasting. We estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under target levels of 62% coverage due to contact tracing and vaccination, and this model estimate may offer a surrogate indicator for the outbreak response challenges.

Real-time predictions of the 2018–2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models

As of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports. We generated probabilistic estimates of the ongoing EVD outbreak in DRC extending both before and after June 16, 2019, and evaluated their accuracy by comparing forecasted vs. actual outbreak sizes, out-of-sample log-likelihood scores and the error per day in the median forecast. The median estimated outbreak sizes for the prospective thee-, six-, and nine-week projections made using data up to June 16, 2019, were, respectively, 2317 (95% PI: 2222, 2464); 2440 (95% PI: 2250, 2790); and 2544 (95% PI: 2273, 3205). The nine-week projection experienced some degradation with a daily error in the median forecast of 6.73 cases, while the six- and three-week projections were more reliable, with corresponding errors of 4.96 and 4.85 cases per day, respectively. Our findings suggest the Hawkes point process may serve as an easily-applied statistical model to predict EVD outbreak trajectories in near real-time to better inform decision-making and resource allocation during Ebola response efforts.

Training Ghanaian frontline healthcare workers in public health surveillance and disease outbreak investigation and response.

IntroductionBeyond initial formal academic education, the need for continuous professional development through in-service workforce capacity improvement programs that are aimed at enhancing knowledge and skills of public healthcare workers has assumed immense priority worldwide. This has been heightened by the on-going Ebola Virus Disease outbreak, which is exposing the weak public health systems in West Africa. In response to this need, the Ghana Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Program organized a short-course for frontline health workers in the Greater Accra region of Ghana in order to augment their surveillance and outbreak response capacity.MethodsHuman and veterinary health workers were trained using Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program short course model. A two-week didactic course was conducted with a 10-week field placement. Evaluation of the course was done by assessment of participants’ outputs during the training as well as pretest and posttest methods.ResultsA total of 32 frontline health workers from both the human and veterinary health services benefited from the two-week initial training of the 12-week course. There was a significant gain in knowledge by the participants after the training course. Participants developed concept papers and implemented their fieldwork projects. Overall assessment of the workshop by the participants was very good.ConclusionCapacity of the health workers has been improved in the area of public health surveillance, outbreak investigation and response. We recommend a scale-up of this training course to other regions.

Evolution and Spread of Ebola Virus in Liberia, 2014-2015.

The 2013-present Western African Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak is the largest ever recorded with >28,000 reported cases. Ebola virus (EBOV) genome sequencing has played an important role throughout this outbreak; however, relatively few sequences have been determined from patients in Liberia, the second worst-affected country. Here, we report 140 EBOV genome sequences from the second wave of the Liberian outbreak and analyze them in combination with 782 previously published sequences from throughout the Western African outbreak. While multiple early introductions of EBOV to Liberia are evident, the majority of Liberian EVD cases are consistent with a single introduction, followed by spread and diversification within the country. Movement of the virus within Liberia was widespread, and reintroductions from Liberia served as an important source for the continuation of the already ongoing EVD outbreak in Guinea. Overall, little evidence was found for incremental adaptation of EBOV to the human host.

The relevance of the social networking media in Ebola virus disease prevention and control in Southwestern Nigeria.

IntroductionThe Social Media (SM) is fast becoming a huge avenue to create and spread health awareness amongst youths. Meanwhile news surrounding the on-going Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa are frightening. This study assessed the relevance of the social networking media in spreading awareness about EVD prevention and control in Southwestern Nigeria.MethodsDescriptive cross sectional study among 400 youths selected using multistage sampling method. Research instruments used were semi structured self administered questionnaires that were analyzed using the SPSS software version 17.0.ResultsThree hundred and eighty (95.0%) of respondents were members of a social network. Several misconceptions trailed the spread of information about EVD. Though only 21(7.3%) bothered to ascertain the reliability of such information before use, 332 (83.0%) believed that SM can also be used to dispel rumours on health information, 337(84.3%) said they would like the use of SM regulated, while 206 (51.6%) still believed that SM is effective in disseminating health information among youths. Only 79.4% had good knowledge of EVD, and 30.7% of respondents had misinformation about EVD. Determinants of good level of knowledge about EVD through SM contacts include being a male, having SM as the first source of information on EVD and believing that SM could assist to disseminate and improve health information.ConclusionMisconceptions spread through the SM fuelled the ongoing EVD outbreak in West Africa. There is a need for the concerned authority to create awareness through SM contacts as well as regulate its use.

Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis

Safe and effective vaccines could help to end the ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic in parts of west Africa, and mitigate future outbreaks of the virus. We assess the statistical validity and power of randomised controlled trial (RCT) and stepped-wedge cluster trial (SWCT) designs in Sierra Leone, where the incidence of Ebola virus disease is spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and is decreasing rapidly. We projected district-level Ebola virus disease incidence for the next 6 months, using a stochastic model fitted to data from Sierra Leone. We then simulated RCT and SWCT designs in trial populations comprising geographically distinct clusters at high risk, taking into account realistic logistical constraints, and both individual-level and cluster-level variations in risk. We assessed false-positive rates and power for parametric and non-parametric analyses of simulated trial data, across a range of vaccine efficacies and trial start dates. For an SWCT, regional variation in Ebola virus disease incidence trends produced increased false-positive rates (up to 0·15 at α=0·05) under standard statistical models, but not when analysed by a permutation test, whereas analyses of RCTs remained statistically valid under all models. With the assumption of a 6-month trial starting on Feb 18, 2015, we estimate the power to detect a 90% effective vaccine to be between 49% and 89% for an RCT, and between 6% and 26% for an SWCT, depending on the Ebola virus disease incidence within the trial population. We estimate that a 1-month delay in trial initiation will reduce the power of the RCT by 20% and that of the SWCT by 49%. Spatiotemporal variation in infection risk undermines the statistical power of the SWCT. This variation also undercuts the SWCT's expected ethical advantages over the RCT, because an RCT, but not an SWCT, can prioritise vaccination of high-risk clusters. US National Institutes of Health, US National Science Foundation, and Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Risk posed by the Ebola epidemic to the Pacific islands: findings of a recent World Health Organization assessment.

To assess the public health risk posed by the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa to Pacific island countries and areas and to highlight priority risk management actions for preparedness and response. The likelihood of EVD importation and the magnitude of public health impact in Pacific island countries and areas were assessed to determine overall risk. Literature about the hazard, epidemiology, exposure and contextual factors associated with EVD was collected and reviewed. Epidemiological information from the current EVD outbreak was assessed. As of 11 March 2015, there have been more than 24,200 reported cases of EVD and at least 9976 deaths in six West African countries. Three EVD cases have been infected outside of the West African region, and all have epidemiological links to the outbreak in West Africa. Pacific island countries' and areas' relative geographic isolation and lack of travel or trade links between countries with transmission means that EVD importation is very unlikely. However, should a case be imported, the health and non-health consequences would be major. The capacity of Pacific island countries and areas to respond adequately varies greatly between (and within) states but in general is limited. This risk assessment highlights the needs to enhance preparedness for EVD in the Pacific by strengthening the capacities outlined in the World Health Organization Framework for Action on Ebola. Priority areas include the ability to detect and respond to suspected EVD cases quickly, isolation and management of cases in appropriately resourced facilities and the prevention of further cases through infection prevention and control. These efforts for Ebola should enhance all-hazards public health preparedness in line with the International Health Regulations (2005).

Comparative Analysis of Host Cell Entry of Ebola Virus From Sierra Leone, 2014, and Zaire, 1976.

The ongoing Ebola virus (EBOV) disease (EVD) epidemic in Western Africa is the largest EVD outbreak recorded to date and requires the rapid development and deployment of antiviral measures. The viral glycoprotein (GP) facilitates host cell entry and, jointly with cellular interaction partners, constitutes a potential target for antiviral intervention. However, it is unknown whether the GPs of the currently and previously circulating EBOVs use the same mechanisms for cellular entry and are thus susceptible to inhibition by the same antivirals and cellular defenses. Here, we show that the GPs of the EBOVs circulating in 1976 and 2014 transduce the same spectrum of target cells, use the same cellular factors for host cell entry, and are comparably susceptible to blockade by antiviral interferon-induced transmembrane proteins and neutralizing antibody KZ52. Thus, the viruses responsible for the ongoing EVD epidemic should be fully susceptible to established antiviral strategies targeting GP and cellular entry factors.

An Analysis of the International and Domestic Health Hazards Posed by the 2014 West African Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak

An epidemic of "ebolavirus" in West Africa, which was first identified in March 2014, is now the largest Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak on record. The West African epidemic will only be quelled through widespread adherence of public health initiatives promoting barrier-nursing techniques, health education, and the rapid identification of cases. The ongoing EVD outbreak in West Africa is unlikely to affect public health in the U.S. significantly.