Ongoing Climate Change Research Articles

Spatiotemporal variation in population dynamics of a narrow endemic, Ranunculus austro-oreganus.

Understanding how population dynamics vary in space and time is critical for understanding the basic life history and conservation needs of a species, especially for narrow endemic species whose populations are often in similar environments and therefore at increased risk of extinction under climate change. Here, we investigated the spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics of Ranunculus austro-oreganus, a perennial buttercup endemic to fragmented prairie habitat in one county in southern Oregon. We performed demographic surveys of three populations of R. austro-oreganus over 4 years (2015-2018). We used size-structured population models and life table response experiments to investigate vital rates driving spatiotemporal variation in population growth. Overall, R. austro-oreganus had positive or stable stochastic population growth rates, though individual vital rates and overall population growth varied substantially among sites and years. All populations had their greatest growth in the same year, suggesting potential synchrony associated with climate conditions. Differences in survival contributed most to spatial variation in population growth, while differences in reproduction contributed most to temporal variation in population growth. Populations of this extremely narrow endemic appear stable, with positive growth during our study window. These results suggest that populations of R. austro-oreganus are able to persist if their habitat is not eliminated by land-use change. Nonetheless, its narrow distribution and synchronous population dynamics suggest the need for continued monitoring, particularly with ongoing habitat loss and climate change.

Measuring Precipitation via Microwave Bands with a High-Accuracy Setup

The urgent need for timely and accurate precipitation estimations in the face of ongoing climate change and the increasing frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events underscores the necessity for innovative approaches. Recently, several studies have focused on estimating the precipitation rate through induced attenuation of radio frequency (RF) signals, which are abundant in modern communication systems. Most research has concentrated on frequencies exceeding 10 GHz, as attenuation at lower frequencies is minimal, posing measurement challenges. This study aims to confront this limitation by introducing a high-precision experimental setup capable of detecting this subtle attenuation at frequencies under 10 GHz. The setup includes a transmitter and receiver optimized for operation at 2.07, 4.63, and 6.22 GHz, where minimal worldwide research exists. A power resolution below 10−5 dB in preliminary measurements demonstrated its effectiveness in quantifying signal attenuation due to precipitation across the specified frequencies. Moreover, a strong power law relationship was observed between signal attenuation and precipitation rate for all three frequencies, while, as expected, the higher the frequency, the more pronounced the signal attenuation was.

Distribution and palaeoenvironmental significance of mountain blockstreams in the southern hemisphere

ABSTRACTOpenwork mountain block deposits (blockfields, blockstreams) have received much research interest globally given their visual appeal as prominent cold‐region landforms. However, studies have shown that these landforms in both glaciated and non‐glaciated environments are probably of considerable age (pre‐Quaternary), yet the environmental conditions of their formation (such as the presence of permafrost) and associated processes remain poorly understood. This paper focuses on consolidating and critically analysing current knowledge on mountain blockstreams found in the southern hemisphere. This is achieved by reviewing past published work on such landforms, from the Falkland Islands, Marion Island, southern Africa and southeastern Australia. By presenting a variety of previously proposed landscape evolutionary models, we demonstrate that southern hemisphere blockstreams are products of a range of weathering and material mobilization processes over long multiple warmer/wetter and colder/drier pre‐Quaternary and Quaternary climatic cycles. Although most southern hemisphere mountain blockstreams have some association with periglacial processes, they are not exclusively periglacial in their developmental history. This can be tested through field geomorphic, sedimentary and ecological methods; the use of remote sensing; radiometric and relative‐age dating; seismic and other subsurface methods; and modelling. However, many research questions remain unanswered, such as the potential role of permafrost in blockstream formation and dynamics, or their sensitivity to ongoing climate change.

Run-off impacts on Arctic kelp holobionts have strong implications on ecosystem functioning and bioeconomy

Kelps (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) are foundation species along Arctic rocky shores, providing the basis for complex ecosystems and supporting a high secondary production. Due to ongoing climate change glacial and terrestrial run-off are currently accelerating, drastically changing physical and chemical water column parameters, e.g., water transparency for photosynthetically active radiation or dissolved concentrations of (harmful) elements. We investigated the performance and functioning of Arctic kelp holobionts in response to run-off gradients, with a focus on the effect of altered element concentrations in the water column. We found that the kelp Saccharina latissima accumulates harmful elements (e.g., cadmium, mercury) originating from coastal run-off. As kelps are at the basis of the food web, this might lead to biomagnification, with potential consequences for high-latitude kelp maricultures. In contrast, the high biosorption potential of kelps might be advantageous in monitoring environmental pollution or potentially extracting dissolved rare earth elements. Further, we found that the relative abundances of several kelp-associated microbial taxa significantly responded to increasing run-off influence, changing the kelps functioning in the ecosystem, e.g., the holobionts nutritional value and elemental cycling. The responses of kelp holobionts to environmental changes imply cascading ecological and economic consequences for Arctic kelp ecosystems in future climate change scenarios.

Atmosphere–Ocean–Sea Ice Feedbacks Sustain Recent Barents Sea Ice Loss despite Cooler Atlantic Water Inflow

Abstract Winter sea ice cover has declined faster in the northern Barents Sea (NBS) than in the rest of the Arctic Ocean. One of the key elements controlling sea ice extent in the NBS is the inflow of warm and saline Atlantic water (AW) through the Barents Sea Opening. We show that despite a pronounced decadal variability in the AW temperature with a cooling trend since the mid-2000s, sea ice in the NBS continues to decline. We find that the sea ice decline is partly caused by reduced oceanic heat loss in the southern Barents Sea (SBS) and subsequent transport of warmer AW downstream to the NBS. Moreover, reduced heat loss contributes to increased sea surface height (SSH) in the SBS and sets up a meridional SSH gradient between SBS and NBS. This reduces the inflow of colder Arctic waters from the eastern Barents Sea, which contributes to further warming in the NBS. Results from idealized coupled climate model experiments with reduced Arctic sea ice suggest that these observed features can be driven by sea ice loss. Thus, despite the AW cooling trend, positive feedback from sea ice loss in the NBS, which involves reduced oceanic heat loss in the SBS and less inflow of cold Arctic waters, favors a continuous decline of sea ice in the NBS. Significance Statement Barents Sea region of the Arctic, with the largest changes in terms of atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, is of crucial importance not only for the Arctic region but also has potential implications for weather and climate in midlatitudes and the tropics. Here, in this study, we employ comprehensive approach with observational datasets and climate model experiments to identify recent on-going changes in Barents Sea climate and highlight the importance of sea ice loss in it.

Warming effects on a nonindigenous predator are not conserved across seasons

AbstractThe global proliferation of nonindigenous species remains a critical stressor driving both biodiversity loss and socioeconomic costs. These impacts frequently depend on environmental contexts, but few studies have investigated how seasonal variations coupled with climate changes, like warming, could modulate nonindigenous species ecological impacts. The Japanese brush‐clawed shore crab Hemigrapsus takanoi is a successful nonindigenous species in northern European waters and is currently spreading in the Baltic Sea. In this study, we used generalized linear models and the comparative functional response approach to examine the predatory impact of H. takanoi toward blue mussels Mytilus sp. across four seasons under current and future temperature scenarios (i.e., ambient and + 6°C warming). We further integrated H. takanoi Q10 values and field abundances across seasons to examine population‐level feeding impacts toward blue mussels. The nonindigenous species exhibited a consistent type II functional response (i.e., inversely prey density‐dependent response) across all seasons, temperatures and sexes, with males consistently consuming more mussels than females across all seasons. Warming generally decreased handling times and increased attack rates, but these effects varied by season and sex, with the most pronounced temperature responses observed in autumn and spring. Population‐level impact calculations integrating field abundance data of H. takanoi indicated that under ambient conditions, feeding impacts toward blue mussels currently peak in the summer months, but as temperature increases, this feeding impact is anticipated to shift later in the year into autumn. These findings underline the critical need for multifaceted research approaches to better understand and predict the context‐dependent ecological impacts of nonindigenous species, particularly in the face of ongoing climate change and shifting population characteristics.

Effects of temperature experienced across life stages on morphology and flight behavior of painted lady butterflies (Vanessa cardui)

BackgroundWith ongoing anthropogenic climate change, there is increasing interest in how organisms are affected by higher temperatures, including how animals respond behaviorally to increasing temperatures. Movement behavior is especially relevant, as the ability of a species to shift its range is implicitly dependent upon movement capacity and motivation. Temperature may influence movement behavior of ectotherms both directly, through an increase in body temperature, and indirectly, through temperature-dependent effects on physiological and morphological traits.MethodsWe investigated the influence of ambient temperature during two life stages, larval and adult, on body size and movement behavior of the painted lady butterfly (Vanessa cardui). We reared painted ladies to emergence at either a “low” (24 °C) or “high” (28 °C) temperature. At eclosion, we assessed flight behavior in an arena test. We used a full factorial experimental design in which half of the adults that emerged from each rearing treatment were tested at either the “low” or “high” temperature. We measured adult body size, including wingspan, and determined flight speed, distance, and duration from video recordings.ResultsAdult butterflies that experienced the higher temperature during development were larger. We documented an interaction of rearing x testing temperature on flight behavior: unexpectedly, the fastest butterflies were those who experienced a change in temperature, whether an increase or decrease, between rearing and testing. Individuals that experienced matching thermal environments flew more slowly, but for more time and covering more distance. We found no influence of body size per se on flight.ConclusionsWe conclude that the potential role of “matching” thermal environments across life stages has been underinvestigated with regard to how organisms may respond to warming conditions.

Manifestations of a glacier surge in central Himalaya using multi-temporal satellite data.

Our understanding of identifying and monitoring surge-type glacier distribution patterns, fluctuations, periodicities, and occurrence mechanism under the changing climate is challenging and scarce due to small numbers, limitations on the spatiotemporal coverage of remote sensing observations, and insufficient field-based glaciological data from the High Mountain Asia. The surging glaciers have caused major hazards, and their movement can destroy peripheral and downstream areas like roads, connecting bridges, villages, and hydropower stations and trigger a glacial lake outburst flood or form a dammed (moraine or ice) lake in High Mountain Asia (HMA) in the recent past. Many glaciers have experienced a mass loss and retreat due to ongoing climate change in HMA in recent decades, whereas studies conducted in the Karakorum, Pamir, Tien Shan, and Kunlun Shan regions have reported the surging of the glaciers. Whereas, in the central Himalayan region, very limited studies have been able to identify and explain in detail the surging glaciers and their surge mechanism. In this study, we identified an unnamed glacier surge in the central Himalaya, triggered between 12 September and 14 October 2019 (on a monthly scale) using multi-source high-resolution remote sensing data (CARTOSAT-1 [2011 and 2012], LISS-IV-2A [2011, 2017, and 2020], Landsat-5 [TM], 7 [ETM +], 8 [OLI/TIRS], and Sentinel [2A and 2B]) in conjunction with shuttle radar topography mission [SRTM], Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer [ASTER], and High Mountain Asia digital elevation model (DEM) database. We used a series of algorithms package named MicMac ASTER (MMASTER) tool for generating DEMs from data of two telescopes for the estimation of the surface elevation change, and to calculate the surface velocity, we employed the "Co-registration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation" (COSI-Corr), a Fourier-based, highly advanced matching program. Based on the observations of the glacier terminus fluctuation, surface velocity, and surface elevation change from 1993 to 2022, this study revealed that the unnamed glacier underwent a surge for the first time in the past three decades. The glacier's surface velocity increased from 7 ± 3 m year-1 during quiescence (2001-2002) to 163 ± 1 m year-1 during the surge (2019-2020) and then decreased to 17 ± 2 m year-1 between 2021 and 2022. Between 12 September and 14 October 2019, there was a sudden and significant increase in surface velocity of 863m within a month (i.e., 27 m/day compared to the month prior), indicating the initiation of the surge. Overall, the present study results suggest that the glacier's velocity varied considerably during the observed period, with periods of gradual increase, sudden increase, and subsequent decrease. Further, the changes in glacier surface suggest a total mean elevation change of 0.26 ± 0.2 m year-1 between 2000 and 2020. In this study, we present novel observations of a glacier surge in the central Himalaya, compare its characteristics to surge-type glaciers reported elsewhere, and discuss the possible mechanisms controlling its behavior.

Indoor heat in Amsterdam: Comparing observed indoor air temperatures from a professional network and from a citizen science approach

Ongoing climate change is increasing summertime temperatures, and frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Europe, which can threaten human health. Relatively little is known about how quickly outdoor heat penetrates into residences during heatwaves. Long-term and systematic networks recording indoor temperatures are challenging to install and maintain, and therefore scarce. We first report on crowdsourced indoor air temperature data in residences in Amsterdam (The Netherlands) during a heatwave event in September 2023. These data complement professional long-term indoor air temperature observations in 92 houses in Amsterdam. Second, we document the lessons learnt in the design and execution of this citizen science activity. 571 indoor temperature records were collected through the citizen science crowdsourcing approach, with a median value of 28.0 °C on the warmest day in the study period, while outdoor mean minimum and maximum temperatures reached 20.6 °C and 31.1 °C respectively. The results indicate that the crowdsourcing approach reports temperatures that are significantly higher than the professional approach, which supports the need for professional indoor networks. Finally, local media attention was critical in reaching a wide audience.

Bacterial Diseases: An Emerging Threat for Central European Forest and Urban Trees?

ABSTRACTBacterial tree diseases have been mainly studied in agriculture and horticulture. For forest trees, damage due to bacterial diseases is understudied. Moreover, bacterial tree diseases often appear in the context of so‐called complex diseases, which are dependent on other factors, such as multiple microorganisms, insects or abiotic factors which weaken the host. In recent years, outbreaks of bacterial tree diseases, such as Xylella fastidiosa in the Mediterranean region or acute oak decline (AOD) in the United Kingdom, raised the awareness of bacterial diseases on forest trees. In this review, we aim to summarise the current issues and available knowledge about bacterial diseases of forest trees in Central Europe. Furthermore, we identify potential bacterial pathogens that could gain importance in the future for central European forests. The methods used were a systematic literature search and the analysis of the data collected over the last 10 years on bacterial diseases by the Swiss forest protection service. We conclude that, on one side, complex bacterial diseases could increase in importance, especially considering ongoing climate change. Therefore, the bacterial community of diseased trees (the pathobiome) needs to be studied more in depth to understand the emergence of complex bacterial diseases. On the other side, host ranges of highly pathogenic invasive genera and species, such as Xylella, need to be investigated experimentally for common central European tree species and varieties, to implement proactive risk management strategies against bacterial diseases in forest trees. Finally, urban trees and green spaces should be monitored more closely, as they could serve as starting points for bacterial disease outbreaks in forests, similarly to other emerging diseases and pathogens.

Icelandic glacial dissolved organic carbon fluxes, composition and variability - relevance for the global glacial carbon budget

Despite their relatively large size, organic carbon (OC) fluxes from Icelandic glaciers have not been explicitly considered in current global glacial OC flux calculations. Most global glacial OC estimates are based on limited individual flux estimates, which show considerable spatial differences, are often based on melt season fluxes, and rarely account for seasonal and diurnal variability of glacial dissolved organic matter (DOM). Using an annual dataset of 25 Icelandic glaciers (and their glacial streams) we investigate DOM concentration and composition, calculating an estimate for downstream OC fluxes from Icelandic glaciers, considering diurnal and seasonal variability. DOM source and composition distinctly changed from a terrestrial character toward a more proteinaceous character as melt increased, both on a seasonal and diurnal basis, likely reflecting the flow path of the meltwater. While DOC concentration did not change on a diurnal basis, DOM composition was more labile in the afternoons, possibly indicating photochemical or biological transformation processes. Overall, the glacial streams predominantly acted as CO2 sinks. However, higher DOC concentrations, along with contributions of more proteinaceous DOM in proglacial streams, led to a decrease in the uptake potential for CO2. Finally, we estimated an export flux of 0.0026 ± 0.0029 Gg C yr−1 km−2 of DOC, and 0.011 ± 0.007 Tg C yr−1 km−2 of POC, from Icelandic glaciers. We reveal larger than previously assumed DOC and POC fluxes from Icelandic glaciers, with higher-than-global-average areal fluxes (~3 % and 9 % of global glacial C flux respectively). Our findings underscore the importance of revising current global estimates to include the not-fully-accounted-for contribution of Icelandic, and other glaciers. This is particularly important considering ongoing climatic changes will likely affect glacial meltwater discharge and sources, leading to altered DOM composition and DOC concentration, having potentially considerable consequences for glacial OC export and CO2 uptake potentials of glacial streams.

Consistent growth responses of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) to drought in mixed and monospecific forests: Insights from Central European forests

Ongoing climate change, characterized by an increased frequency of extreme weather events, including severe droughts, negatively impacts forest ecosystems. However, tree responses differ across tree species and stand composition (mixtures vs. pure stands), which may serve as an important management strategy for forest adaptation to climate change. To investigate the effect of stand composition on drought resilience, we conducted research on forest ecosystems in the Polish Outer Carpathians at the eastern edge of the distribution range of two important European tree species, silver fir (Abies alba) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). The aim of our study was to identify climatic factors influencing the growth of these species and to examine their drought sensitivity and productivity. For this purpose, we sampled 100 fir and 100 beech trees from both mixed and monospecific stands. We applied a dendroclimatological approach to determine temporal stability of climate–growth relationships. Lloret’s resilience indices were used to quantify the response of tree growth to episodic drought stress, while to derive differences in productivity, we applied the generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs). Our results showed species specific climate sensitivity which remain consistent regardless of mixture only for fir. Fir responded positively to higher temperatures, especially during spring, but required more precipitation, particularly in summer. Beech exhibited lower sensitivity to climate in mixed than in monospecific stands and exhibited higher resistance than fir. Importantly, species responses to droughts were driven by the duration of specific drought event and the timing in which it occurred. Furthermore, our results revealed that mixed stands were more resistant to extreme drought events. Fir showed higher resistance to extreme drought events in mixed stands than in pure stands. Overall, silver fir exhibited higher productivity than European beech. Especially in younger cohorts, it was higher for pure stands, but fir from mixed stands exhibited increasing productivity with age and delayed culmination. Our findings indicate that both species can form resilient stands in the studied region, making them viable for forest management in the face of climate change. Mixtures of fir and beech are particularly valid option to promote forest sustainability and productivity in mountain regions. Managed mixed stands of Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica demonstrated advantages in productivity and stability under extreme drought conditions. However, varying intensities of management interventions and structural differences between stands and among studies complicate direct comparisons, highlighting the need for more standardized approaches to analyzing species responses and management strategies in the future.

First Report of the Thermophilic Thalassoma Pavo (Linnaeus, 1758) on the Central Adriatic Coast of Italy, in Abruzzo

The Trabocchi Coast in the Chieti district of the mid-Adriatic (Italy) is one of the few rocky areas within the General Fisheries Commission GSA 17, alongside Mount Conero (Ancona 43°00′01″ N 13°52′13″ E) and the small San Nicola Rock (Ascoli Piceno; 43°32′0″ N 13°36′0″ E). This coastline is known for its biodiversity-rich bays, inlets, and submerged cliffs. Since 2015, annual biodiversity surveys have been conducted in the area, focusing on marine species richness and the identification of non-native species. In September 2024, a juvenile ornate wrasse (Thalassoma pavo) was documented for the first time in the middle Adriatic during an underwater visual survey at Trabocco Punta Torre, a key site along the Trabocchi Coast near artificial and biogenic reefs. This record extends the known distribution of T. pavo, a thermophilic species previously reported only along the southern Adriatic coast of Puglia. This is the first confirmed sighting on the middle and northern Adriatic coast of Italy. The discovery highlights the importance of ongoing biodiversity monitoring to track changes in marine ecosystems, particularly as the Adriatic Sea faces environmental shifts linked to climate warming. The presence of T. pavo in this area suggests the potential for the species to establish populations in previously uninhabited northern regions. Further research is needed to explore the role of biotic and abiotic factors—such as water temperature, current patterns, and habitat availability—in the survival and potential reproduction of T. pavo in the middle Adriatic. The observation contributes to the broader understanding of the meridionalization process in the Adriatic Sea, where rising water temperatures are facilitating the northward expansion of thermophilic species. Continuous monitoring is recommended to assess the long-term viability of T. pavo populations in the Adriatic Sea and better predict the impacts of ongoing climate change on marine biodiversity.

Applications of Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis and Trend Polygon Star Concept Methods for the Variability of Precipitation at Synoptic Stations in Benin (West Africa)

Climate variability poses new risks and uncertainties. In the sub-Saharan region, the impacts are already being felt and represent an additional level of obstacles for most vulnerable people, as well as a threat to sustainable development. This study analyzes the variability of precipitation in Benin using new approaches. The precipitation data used is the monthly average recorded at synoptic stations from 1970 to 2019 by the Metéo-Bénin agency. Two innovative graphical trend methods, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and trend polygon star concept (TPSC), are applied to the data. Both methods allow for the assessment of periodic characteristics of the monthly average rainfall and visually interpreting the transition trends between two consecutive months. The results show that the average monthly precipitation does not follow a regular pattern. There is also a general upward trend in precipitation for most months at the stations used. Most TPSC arrows were found in regions I and III. According to the TPSC graphs, the longest transition arrows between two consecutive months were observed in quadrant III. They were noted between the months of June and July in Cotonou, October and November in Bohicon and Save, and between September and October for the remaining stations. The results of this study are of great importance for policies regarding ongoing climate change in the agricultural, health, economic, security, and environmental sectors.

Environmental degradation and recovery after termination of whaling in sub-Antarctic fjord, South Georgia

Polar ecosystems are considered very fragile, however, due to the short observation record it is hard to assess the recovery processes of the coastal and fjord environments after a major disturbance. Here, we provide a unique case study from South Georgia (sub-Antarctic), an area seriously affected by the whaling industry. The study focuses on King Edward Cove, serving as a sheltered harbor for the former whaling station at Grytviken, as well as other parts of Cumberland Bay considered to represent generally pristine areas. We studied 210Pb dated sediment cores, which were subjected to analysis of sediment geochemical composition, concentrations of anthropogenic organic markers and biomarkers, foraminiferal assemblage changes, as well as sedimentary ancient DNA. Three distinct phases have been identified. The oldest one, predating ca. 1970, recorded the whaling period, and was characterized by anoxic conditions, high organic carbon content, contamination with heavy metals, organic markers, distinct DNA signature and lack of foraminiferal microfossils. It took only a few years to establish a new ecosystem with a fully developed foraminiferal assemblage and decreased contamination characteristic for the middle phase (ca. 1970–2000). Ancient DNA suggests macro-zoobenthic recovery being delayed by a several years in comparison to benthic foraminifera. In the youngest period, around Cumberland Bay, the increase of iceberg rafted debris from rapidly retreating tidewater glaciers was noted, while the improved oxygen availability in bottom waters in King Edward Cove can be likely ascribed to frequent water mixing due to increasing traffic of large cruise vessels. The recorded pace of ecosystem recovery from major anthropogenic disturbance appears similar to that observed in the temperate fjords from the Northern Hemisphere, however, the effects of new anthropogenic threat and the ongoing climate change are already resulting in the new ecosystem disturbance.

Predicting climate driven habitat shifts for the Egyptian vulture in Punjab, Pakistan

Climate change has significantly impacted habitat loss, affecting various threatened species, including the Egyptian vulture, which is experiencing a population and habitat decline in Pakistan. This study employs MaxEnt modeling to predict the current and future distribution of the Egyptian vulture across Punjab province, Pakistan, under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 for the years 2040, 2070, and 2100. We used 67 occurrence records and seven environmental variables to model the vulture’s distribution. The MaxEnt model exhibited good predictive performance with an AUC value of 0.837, identifying a current suitable habitat area of 122,124.16 km2. Among the environmental factors analyzed, precipitation seasonality (Bio15), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio10), and precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) emerged as the most influential variables, contributing 39.8 %, 18 %, and 8.8 %, respectively. The model predicts a substantial shift in suitable habitats under various climate scenarios, with an overall increase of 69 % in suitable habitat by 2100 under the SSP 370–2100 scenario. Significant habitat expansions are expected across central and southern Punjab, while reductions are anticipated in the northern and western regions, with significant changes in surface coverage. Furthermore, the conservation gap analysis reveals that although 2,451.63 km2 of highly suitable and 1,648.91 km2 of very highly suitable habitat exist within protected areas, more than 90 % of these habitats remain unprotected, highlighting a critical conservation gap that threatens the species’ long term survival. The insights derived from this study are critical for informing conservation efforts and habitat management practices, offering a foundational reference for the protection of the Egyptian vulture and similar species in the face of ongoing climate change.

Assessment of multidimensional diversity and conservation of threatened timber trees in China under climate change

Understanding spatial patterns of multidimensional diversity is crucial for effective conservation planning, especially in mountainous regions that are often biodiversity hotspots. This study focused on assessing the impact of climate change on the distribution of 110 threatened timber tree species in China, combining species distribution models and phylogenetic frameworks to quantify multidimensional diversity indices. The research aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of these indices in guiding the prioritization of protected areas and conservation strategies in the face of climate change. The findings revealed that Chinese protected areas are projected to experience a significant decline in their ability to protect the top 15 % hotspots for evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) species under future climate scenarios. This decline ranges from 17.11 % to 29.93 %, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies. Energy-related factors, particularly annual mean temperature and temperature annual range, were identified as key drivers of timber tree distribution patterns. Based on these results, the study advocate for the integration of multidimensional diversity indices into conservation priority evaluation frameworks and considering species' evolutionary history and vulnerability when determining regional biodiversity targets. This approach can help improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts in the face of ongoing climate change.

Accounting for Climate and Inherent Soil Quality in United Nations (UN) Land Degradation Analysis: A Case Study of the State of Arizona (USA)

Climate change and land degradation (LD) are some of the most critical challenges for humanity. Land degradation (LD) is the focus of the United Nations (UN) Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 15: Life on Land). Land degradation is composed of inherent and anthropogenic LD, which are both impacted by inherent soil quality (SQ) and climate. Conventional LD analysis does not take into account inherent SQ because it is not the result of land use/land cover change (LULC), which can be tracked using remote sensing platforms. Furthermore, traditional LD analysis does not link anthropogenic LD to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study uses one of the indicators for LD for SDG 15 (15.3.1: Proportion of land that is degraded over the total land area) to demonstrate how to account for inherent SQ in anthropogenic LD with corresponding GHG emissions over time using the state of Arizona (AZ) as a case study. The inherent SQ of AZ is skewed towards low-SQ soils (Entisols: 29.3%, Aridisols: 49.4%), which, when combined with climate, define the inherent LD status. Currently, 8.6% of land in AZ has experienced anthropogenic LD primarily because of developments (urbanization) (42.8%) and agriculture (32.2%). All six soil orders have experienced varying degrees of anthropogenic LD. All land developments in AZ can be linked to damages from LD, with 4862.6 km2 developed, resulting in midpoint losses of 8.7 × 1010 kg of total soil carbon (TSC) and a midpoint social cost of carbon dioxide emissions (SC-CO2) of $14.7B (where B = billion = 109, USD). Arizona was not land degradation neutral (LDN) based on an increase (+9.6%) in the anthropogenic LD overall and an increase in developments (+29.5%) between 2001 and 2021. Considering ongoing climate change impacts in AZ, this increase in urbanization represents reverse climate change adaptation (RCCA) because of the increased population. The state of AZ has 82.0% of the total state area for nature-based solutions (NBS). However, this area is dominated by soils with inherently low SQ (e.g., Entisols, Aridisols, etc.), which complicates efforts for climate change adaptation.

Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Streamflow in Arid Alpine Water Source Regions: A Case Study of the Shiyang River, China

Climate change and human activities were identified as the primary drivers of streamflow in arid alpine regions. However, limitations in observational data have resulted in a limited understanding of streamflow changes in these water sources, which hinders efforts to adapt to ongoing climate change and to formulate effective streamflow management policies. Here, we use the four main tributaries in the upper reach of the Shiyang River in China as a case study to investigate the long-term trends in streamflow within arid alpine water sources, quantifying the individual contributions of climate change and human activities to these changes. The findings revealed that temperatures and precipitation in arid alpine regions have risen over the past 40 years. Although the warming trend has been significant, it has slowed in recent years. Nevertheless, three-quarters of the rivers are experiencing a decline in streamflow. The land types within the watershed remain relatively stable, with land use and cover change (LUCC) primarily occurring in the Gulang River watershed. Climate change has significantly affected streamflow change in high and rugged terrains, with an influence exceeding 70%. For example, Jingta River showed an impact of 118.79%, Zamu River 84.00%, and Huangyang River 71.43%. Human-driven LUCC, such as the expansion of cultivated and urban land, have led to increased water consumption, resulting in reduced streamflow. This effect is particularly pronounced in the low-lying and gently undulating areas of the Gulang River, where LUCC account for 78.68% of the change in streamflow. As human activities intensify and temperatures continue to rise, further declines in streamflow are projected, highlighting the urgent need for effective water resource management. These insights highlight the urgent need for targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to confront the water scarcity challenges faced by these vulnerable regions.

Acclimation of barley plants to elevated CO2 concentration and high light intensity does not increase their protection against drought, heat, and their combination

Plants face fluctuations in environmental conditions throughout their life cycles. Some of these conditions, such as CO2 concentration and increasing temperature, are closely linked to ongoing climate change. These conditions not only affect plant growth and development but also modify the response to sudden exposure to stressors through morphological, physiological, and biochemical acclimation. Understanding these responses is therefore important for defining adaptation strategies for future crop production. In this study, we tested the acclimation effect of light intensity (low, high) and CO2 concentration (low, ambient, elevated) on barley plants and its implications for subsequent responses to drought, heat, and their combination. The acclimation to the growth conditions induced numerous changes both in plant morphology and physiology. The whole-plant leaf area was stimulated by increasing light intensity and CO2 concentration. That led to increased whole-plant transpiration despite the trend of stomatal conductance was the opposite in comparison to leaf area. The increased whole-plant transpiration then increased the sensitivity of barley plants to the stress treatments. Similarly, the stimulatory effect of high light intensity on antioxidative capacity was not sufficient to improve barley performance under the stress treatments. The presented results show that for physiological or biochemical indicators of stress tolerance to be realistically used to evaluate the expected response to stress conditions, they must be related to the morphology of the whole plant, which influences both the severity of stress and the quantitative role of resistance mechanisms.