Predicting climate driven habitat shifts for the Egyptian vulture in Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change has significantly impacted habitat loss, affecting various threatened species, including the Egyptian vulture, which is experiencing a population and habitat decline in Pakistan. This study employs MaxEnt modeling to predict the current and future distribution of the Egyptian vulture across Punjab province, Pakistan, under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 for the years 2040, 2070, and 2100. We used 67 occurrence records and seven environmental variables to model the vulture’s distribution. The MaxEnt model exhibited good predictive performance with an AUC value of 0.837, identifying a current suitable habitat area of 122,124.16 km2. Among the environmental factors analyzed, precipitation seasonality (Bio15), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio10), and precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) emerged as the most influential variables, contributing 39.8 %, 18 %, and 8.8 %, respectively. The model predicts a substantial shift in suitable habitats under various climate scenarios, with an overall increase of 69 % in suitable habitat by 2100 under the SSP 370–2100 scenario. Significant habitat expansions are expected across central and southern Punjab, while reductions are anticipated in the northern and western regions, with significant changes in surface coverage. Furthermore, the conservation gap analysis reveals that although 2,451.63 km2 of highly suitable and 1,648.91 km2 of very highly suitable habitat exist within protected areas, more than 90 % of these habitats remain unprotected, highlighting a critical conservation gap that threatens the species’ long term survival. The insights derived from this study are critical for informing conservation efforts and habitat management practices, offering a foundational reference for the protection of the Egyptian vulture and similar species in the face of ongoing climate change.