Ongoing Climate Change Research Articles

Phenology Across Scales: An Intercontinental Analysis of Leaf‐Out Dates in Temperate Deciduous Tree Communities

ABSTRACTAimTo quantify the intra‐community variability of leaf‐out (ICVLo) among dominant trees in temperate deciduous forests, assess its links with specific and phylogenetic diversity, identify its environmental drivers and deduce its ecological consequences with regard to radiation received and exposure to late frost.LocationEastern North America (ENA) and Europe (EUR).Time Period2009–2022.Major Taxa StudiedTemperate deciduous forest trees.MethodsWe developed an approach to quantify ICVLo through the analysis of RGB images taken from phenological cameras. We related ICVLo to species richness, phylogenetic diversity and environmental conditions. We quantified the intra‐community variability of the amount of radiation received and of exposure to late frost.ResultsLeaf‐out occurred over a longer time interval in ENA than in EUR. The sensitivity of leaf‐out to temperature was identical in both regions (−3.4 days per °C). The distributions of ICVLo were similar in EUR and ENA forests, despite the latter being more species‐rich and phylogenetically diverse. In both regions, cooler conditions and an earlier occurrence of leaf‐out resulted in higher ICVLo. ICVLo resulted in ca. 8% difference of radiation received from leaf‐out to September among individual trees. Forest communities in ENA had shorter safety margins as regards the exposure to late frosts, and were actually more frequently exposed to late frosts.Main ConclusionsWe conducted the first intercontinental analysis of the variability of leaf‐out at the scale of tree communities. North American and European forests showed similar ICVLo, in spite of their differences in terms of species richness and phylogenetic diversity, highlighting the relevance of environmental controls on ICVLo. We quantified two ecological implications of ICVLo (difference in terms of radiation received and exposure to late frost), which should be explored in the context of ongoing climate change, which affects trees differently according to their phenological niche.

Assessing the impact of artificial geotextile covers on glacier mass balance and energy fluxes

As global warming accelerates, leading to the retreat of glaciers, the effectiveness of artificial coverings, in particular geotextiles, in reducing glacier ablation has emerged as a topic of increasing concern. Nevertheless, a critical gap in knowledge persists regarding the specific physical processes involved in the mitigation provided by these coverings. This study explores the underlying mechanisms that govern the interaction through field observations and COSIPY model simulations at Bailanghe Glacier No. 21 in the Qilian Mountains from 26 June to 17 September 2023. It compares covered and uncovered areas to evaluate differences in mass and energy balance fluxes. It was discovered that geotextiles could decrease ice melt by up to 1000 mm w.e. in comparison to the surface of glaciers without cover, primarily because of a 23% increase in albedo compared to ice, leading to a decrease in net short-wave radiation and available melt energy. The effect of covering the entire glacier with a geotextile, which has varying albedo properties, was also simulated. It was found that, with every 5% increase in the albedo of the geotextile, ablation was reduced by 10%‒25%, resulting in a decrease in ice volume loss of approximately 2.5 × 105 m3. While artificially covering glaciers can reduce ablation rates, it faces challenges such as high costs, environmental risks, and issues with replicability. Ultimately, this study aims to analyze the feasibility of glacier coverage from a mechanistic perspective for glacier management amidst ongoing climate change.

Highland forest dynamics across equatorial East Africa during the end of the African humid period

Tropical mountain ecosystems hold immense ecological and economic importance, yet they face disproportionate risks from shifting tropical climates. For example, present-day montane vegetation of East Africa is characterized by different plant species that grow in and are restricted to certain elevations due to environmental tolerances. As climate changes and temperature/rainfall zones move on mountains, these species must rapidly adjust their ranges or risk extinction.Paleoenvironmental records offer valuable insights into past climate and ecosystem dynamics, aiding predictions for ongoing climate change impacts. In particular, warming and wetting in tropical East Africa during the mid-Holocene resulted in both lowland and highland forest expansion. However, the relative impacts of rainfall and temperature change on montane ecosystems along with the influence of lowland forest expansion on montane communities is not completely understood. We use fossil pollen to study the vegetation changes in two lakes at different altitudes in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda: Lake Mahoma (Montane Forest belt) and Upper Kachope Lake (Afroalpine belt). Further, using the newly relaunched African Pollen Database and recent temperature reconstructions, we provide a regional synthesis of vegetation changes in the Rwenzori and then compare this with changes observed from other equatorial East African montane sites (particularly Mt Kenya).In the early to mid-Holocene in the Rwenzori Mountains, trees common today in lowland forests dominated, driven largely by warmer temperatures. After 4000 years ago (4ka), Afromontane forest trees along with grasses progressively replaced lowland trees. Not all sites experienced identical transitions. For instance, at Lake Rutundu on Mt Kenya at the same elevation as Lake Mahoma, bamboo expansion preceded Afromontane forest growth, likely influenced by variations in fire. Variance partitioning indicates that each site responded differently to changes in temperature and rainfall. Therefore, these site-specific ecological responses underscore the importance of considering biogeographic legacies as management strategies are developed, despite similarities in modern ecology.

Clarifying the impacts of climatic coupling on plastic-mulching potato production in the loess plateau of China

ContextThe ongoing changes in climate constitute a major risk factor for global potato production. Recent studies have underscored the productivity-enhancing effects of plastic mulching for rain-fed potatoes. However, the adaptability of mulching measures to climate change in order to facilitate increased potato yields remains a question. Moreover, the coupling effects of different climatic factors on potato production was unclear. ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the impact of different climatic factors and their coupling effects on the yields of mulching and no mulching potatoes in the Loess Plateau. MethodsWe utilized multiple crop models and global climate models (GCMs) to predict the yields of mulching and no mulching potatoes on the Loess Plateau based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. Additionally, we analyzed the response of yields to the coupling effects of climate, and clarified the effects of main climatic coupling effects to yield of mulching and no mulching potatoes. Results and conclusionsWe found that, for mulching potatoes, the contribution of climate coupling to yield under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios ranged from 47.05 % to 49.31 % for the period 2021–2060 and increased to 49.09 % to 50.94 % for the period 2061–2100. The mean temperature (Tmen)-dominated coupling contributed the most to yield for mulching potatoes, while for no mulching potatoes, precipitation (Pr)-dominated coupling played a dominant role. The maximum temperature (Tmax)-dominated coupling significantly reduced potato yields in the future, and mulching measures exacerbated the negative effect. However, mulching measures eliminated the adverse impact of minimum temperature (Tmin)-dominated coupling on potato yields. After decomposing the coupling effects of climatic factors, we found that the main factors leading to a reduction in potato yield were Tmax and Pr couplings, with mulching measures amplifying the heat-moisture effects. But mulching not only alleviated Tmin and Pr coupling but also strengthened the Tmean and Pr coupling, resulting in increased yield. SignificanceHence, understanding how mulching potatoes avoid heat-moisture coupling to promote production was crucial for the future on the Loess Plateau. Our findings contribute to clarifying the impact of climatic coupling on mulching potato production, thereby aiding in the informed development of rational policies.

Перспективы развития водородной энергетики на региональном примере

In connection with ongoing climate change, an important factor in the development of the global energy is reducing its carbon footprint. Hydrogen energy may be the answer to the transition to environmentally friendly and resource-saving energy. The article presents an analytical review of promising methods of hydrogen production on the example of the Saratov region, as well as its potential consumers in the real and long term. The review content was selected by analyzing scientific articles published in various databases, electronic scientific libraries and media articles published on the internet. It was concluded that hydrogen produced in the Saratov region will be consumed to a greater extent in the same territory. The production of phosphate fertilizers and the utilization of hydrogen-containing gases in the oil reforming process will be the drivers of hydrogen energy development in the region. In the long term, the use of hydrogen as fuel will be developed. A high-tech autonomous hydrogen energy complex implemented at the Balakovo NPP will be capable of producing and supplying electricity to the electric power system during in the peak hours. It is noted that the Saratov region has the potential to produce biohydrogen obtained by processing agricultural waste. State measures to stimulate hydrogen producers and consumers in the region will play a decisive role in increasing the efficiency of hydrogen energy development in the Saratov region.

Guardians of the aquifers: ehancing Rome’s groundwater monitoring network

This paper proposes a methodology for managing groundwater monitoring directly in the field through a specific data entry system installed on mobile devices and a relational geographic database that allows the visualization and querying of data via a specific web interface. The study area is the city of Rome, where a monitoring system of approximately 150 piezometers and wells, currently manually monitored twice a year. The proposed method uses the Enterprise cloud platform (ESRI, 2024) managed by ISPRA-SNPA, which guarantees the repository of the data collected in an online cloud system and the use of Web applications. The data of the time series of levels and chemical-physical parameters such as temperature, pH, conductivity are freely accessible through attribute tables, graphs, and viewer elements. The results highlight numerous possibilities for expanding the network of active wells, enabling the use of groundwater resources for adaptation measures to address ongoing climate change.

The assembly and dynamics of ecological communities in an ever‐changing world

AbstractAlternative perspectives on the maintenance of biodiversity and the assembly of ecological communities suggest that both processes cannot be investigated simultaneously. In this concept and synthesis, we challenge this view by presenting major theoretical advances in structural stability and permanence theory. These advances, which provide complementary views, allow studying the short‐ and long‐term dynamics of ecological communities as changes in species richness, composition, and abundance. Here, the global attractor, technically named informational structure (IS), is the central element to construct from information of species' intrinsic growth rates and their strength and sign of interactions. The global attractor has four main properties: (1) It contains all the limits of what is feasible and unfeasible of the dynamical behavior of an ecological system, therefore, (2) it provides a thorough characterization of all combinations of species' richness and composition in which species can coexist (i.e., feasible and stable equilibrium), (3) as well as all connections (paths) of assembly between coexisting communities. Importantly, (4) such topology of coexisting communities and their connections changes when environmental (abiotic and biotic) variation affects the ability of species to grow and interact with others. Overall, these four properties allow switching from a traditional evaluation of species coexistence at equilibrium to a much more realistic nonequilibrium perspective where changes in the structure of the global attractor underlie the transient ecological dynamics. Several fields in ecology can benefit from the study of an IS. For instance, it can serve to evaluate community responses after the end of a perturbation, to design restoration trajectories, to study the consequences of biological invasions on the persistence of native species within communities, or to assess ecosystem health status. We illustrate this latter possibility with empirical observations of 7 years in Mediterranean annual grasslands. We document that extremely wet or dry years generate ISs supporting few coexisting communities and few assembly paths. The remaining communities distinguish winners from losers of ongoing climate change and indicate the limits to future community assembly opportunities. A fully tractable operational framework is readily available to understand and predict the assembly and dynamics of ecological communities in an ever‐changing world.

Site conditions rather than provenance drive tree growth, climate sensitivity and drought responses in European beech in Germany

Ongoing climate change and associated extreme events strongly impact the growth and vitality of forest ecosystems in Europe. Because of its’ high drought sensitivity, European beech, which is considered as climax tree species in large parts of Central Europe, may specifically suffer. Hence, recent studies increasingly focus on the resistance and resilience of beech growth to climate change. Intra-specific variations in growth responses by comparing different beech provenances, however, received less attention, as did the question whether provenance selection can be used to mitigate potential future negative impacts of climate change. Therefore, we here investigated 24 provenances belonging to the International Beech Provenance Trial growing at three sites in Germany along a latitudinal gradient (study sites are referred to as ’North’, ‘Center’, ‘South’). Specifically, we compared tree-ring width (TRW), diameter breast height (DBH), climate-growth relationships, as well as drought resistance and resilience in the extreme years 2003 and 2018. Large differences in growth performance were observed between the three study sites. At site North, beech trees showed the highest DBH and TRW. Tree growth was predominantly driven by previous-year October and current-year winter temperature, whereas growth at sites Center and South was significantly impacted by summer SPEI and constrained by precipitation in late winter and early June, respectively. Overall, drought responses in 2003 were less variable than in 2018. We found increasing resistance and decreasing resilience from the wetter North to the drier South, but with minimal differences between the Center and the South. Whereas differences between study sites were large, provenance differentiation within sites was comparably low, substantiating that beech is a highly plastic tree species. Even though some provenances were found to perform slightly better or worse, differences were not statistically significant and show unclear patterns. Hence, we conclude that climate change will affect beech forests in Europe mainly depending upon site conditions, and that provenance selection may not ensure superior growth performance.

Seasonal changes in altitudinal patterns of bird species richness in a temperate low-elevation mountain

Mountain environments change rapidly over short distances along altitudinal gradients, providing an ideal system for exploring the mechanisms that shape biodiversity gradients. Species richness is the most studied diversity metric in mountains, and altitudinal patterns and their shaping mechanisms have been investigated worldwide. Although the altitudinal patterns of species richness in breeding bird assemblages have been extensively studied, less attention has been paid to seasonal changes in patterns between winter and summer. Furthermore, the effects of severe climate in high-elevation areas on seasonal changes in the altitudinal pattern of species richness in insular mountains remain unclear. We investigated changes in the pattern between the breeding and wintering seasons using field and literature surveys in Mount Tsukuba (877 m a.s.l.), central Japan. Temperatures at the middle elevations of the slope are relatively higher than those at the foot of the mountain in winter. The mountain is covered with forests up to its summit. We found that the altitudinal pattern of species richness was the low-plateau during the wintering season. Low-elevation areas were havens for wintering species, whereas high-elevation areas were impoverished in wintering species. Conversely, there was no association between elevation and species richness during the breeding season. Our study suggests that the relaxation of severe climates in high-elevation areas during winter and verdant forests in the highlands during summer are critical mechanisms driving seasonal changes in the altitudinal pattern of species richness. Furthermore, we highlight that comprehensive monitoring, including wintering seasons, is essential for detecting the changes in the diversity patterns of mountain bird assemblages due to the shift in the peak of wintering species richness under ongoing climate change.

A review on seed priming to combat climate variability in agriculture

Global agriculture faces immense challenges due to climate change, which causes unpredictable weather patterns, decreased agricultural productivity, and decreased food security. Seed priming is critical in combating climate variability because it has emerged as a promising method for improving seed germination and agricultural resilience. This review evaluates the efficiency of several seed priming techniques, including hydro-priming, halo-priming, osmo-priming, bio-priming, chemical priming, and hormone priming. These techniques improve seedling vigor, stress tolerance, and overall crop yield. Seed priming increases germination rates and resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses, such as salinity and drought, while improving agricultural output and disease resistance. Seed priming reduces the demand for chemical pesticides and fertilizers by increasing soil quality and nutrient absorption, which supports sustainable agriculture. This review highlights the potential benefits of seed priming as a practical, affordable, and practical strategy to reduce the negative effects of climatic variability on agriculture. Future studies should focus on developing the best priming techniques for diverse crop varieties and conditions, as well as examining the combined impacts of various priming strategies. Seed priming will be crucial to preserving food security and agricultural sustainability in the face of ongoing climate change.

Spatial-Temporal Analysis of the Effects of Frost and Temperature on Vegetation in the Third Pole Based on Remote Sensing

Frost events during the growing season can significantly impact vegetation function and structure. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are two widely used proxies for measuring vegetation growth. However, the extent to which NDVI and SIF respond to frost events and how the responses vary under different temperature, precipitation, and shortwave radiation conditions are still unclear. In this study, spatially gridded meteorological data were employed to identify frost events during the growing season in the Third Pole. Subsequently, vegetation responses to the frost events were examined using remotely sensed SIF and NDVI data in different seasons in the Third Pole. During the growing season, the number of frost events declined faster from 2001 to 2009 than from 2010 to 2018. From 2001 to 2009, most alpine vegetation areas in the Third Pole exhibited greening trends. SIF exhibited a strong correlation with environmental factors and showed higher sensitivity to environmental factors compared to the NDVI. Over the past two decades, the impact of temperature and frost days on alpine vegetation has decreased while the impact of precipitation and radiation has increased. This suggests that the control mechanisms governing alpine vegetation are gradually shifting in response to ongoing climate change in the Third Pole. This study enhances our comprehension of frost changes in alpine regions during the growing season and enriches our understanding of how alpine vegetation responds to climate change.

Constraining seasonal and spatial ambient and urban groundwater contributions to streamflow across a mixed land-use regional-scale Precambrian Shield watershed

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions are complex phenomena that vary naturally over space and time and are being influenced by environmental change. The Whitson River watershed is a mixed land-use Precambrian shield watershed located in Northeastern Ontario, Canada in which groundwater is a source of municipal water supply and in which groundwater and surface waters are at risk of potential impacts from urban runoff, ongoing municipal drainage projects, periodic flooding, and climate change. This study used watershed-scale synoptic surveys of stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) and geochemistry, and corresponding mixing-model approaches (two-component and three-component) to quantify the seasonal and spatial variation in surface water, ambient, and urban groundwater contributions to streamflow. Multiple mixing models were generated based on isotope and geochemical source water identification, and the performance of these models was compared. Mixing-model analyses showed that groundwater contributes a critical, sustaining source to streamflow (> 50 % or more) during summer baseflow conditions, dropping to ∼ 15 % in fall when connection to shield lakes and wetlands dominate. Three-component mixing models showed similar results to the two-component models, refining groundwater contributions into ambient and urban groundwater sources. Estimated urban groundwater contributed 30 % or more to summer baseflow, dropping to ∼ 4 % in the fall. Baseflow estimates derived from graphical hydrograph separation were similar to mixing model groundwater estimates in the summer but suggest this approach overestimates groundwater contributions during the fall. These results demonstrate the complexity of source water contributions to streamflow and the challenges in their determination in mixed-land-use Precambrian Shield landscapes where communities are largely located. Assessment of source water contributions to streamflow across the Whitson River sub-watershed has generated a region-specific conceptualization (e.g. urban versus ambient groundwater) of a basin that is experiencing increased urban development, providing information that will be of value for long term management.

Precipitation-induced biomass enhancement and differential allocation in Inner Mongolia's herbaceous and shrub communities

Changes in precipitation patterns induced by global climate change have profound implications for the structure and function of grassland ecosystems. However, the relationship between plant diversity and ecosystem function across different grassland types, particularly those with varying plant compositions and dominant species, remains inadequately understood. To address this knowledge gap, a five-year experimental manipulation of precipitation was conducted within herbaceous and shrub communities in the desert grasslands of Inner Mongolia. We found that increased precipitation significantly enhances aboveground biomass (AGB), belowground biomass (BGB), and community total biomass (CTB) in both herbaceous and shrub communities. In herbaceous communities, increased precipitation led to a disproportionate increase in both aboveground and belowground biomass, supporting the optimal allocation hypothesis. Structural equation modeling (SEM) further elucidated that precipitation regulates AGB and CTB through species richness and functional traits in herbaceous communities. In shrub communities, precipitation influences AGB, BGB, and CTB by affecting species richness and soil water content. This study highlights the critical role of precipitation in shaping biomass dynamics and allocation strategies within herbaceous and shrub communities in desert steppe of Inner Mongolia. These findings provide essential insights into the potential responses of desert grassland ecosystems to ongoing climate change.

Arrival-breeding interval is flexible in a songbird and is not constrained by migration carry-over effects.

As spring phenology advances with climate change, so too must the timing of life cycle events. Breeding at the right time is critical in many species as it maximizes fitness. For long-distance migratory birds, flexibility in the duration of the arrival-breeding interval (pre-breeding period) may allow populations to adjust their timing of breeding. However, whether first egg-lay dates are flexible to local environmental conditions after arrival, and if they are constrained by the time needed to replenish energy lost during migration, remains unclear. We investigated the regional flexibility of the arrival-breeding interval in an avian migrant, the purple martin, Progne subis, across their breeding range. We evaluated whether the duration of the arrival-breeding interval was flexible to temperature and precipitation at breeding sites, and if timing was limited by migration rate and stopover duration. We also tested if longer interval durations were associated with higher fledging success. To address our hypotheses, we used a combination of migration tracking, weather and breeding data collected from four regions across eastern North America (26.1° N to 52.4° N latitude). We found the arrival-breeding interval to be shortest in the north and longest in the south. Across all regions, warmer temperatures encountered at breeding grounds were associated with shorter intervals, and faster migration rates led to longer intervals. The length of the interval was not influenced by precipitation or stopover duration. Finally, longer intervals were not associated with higher fledge success. Currently, the longer arrival-breeding intervals in this study system, on average 28.3 days, may provide both early and late-arriving birds with ample time for recovery so birds can lay eggs according to temperature. Any negative effects of faster migration may have been buffered by longer arrival-breeding intervals, as interval length did not determine fledge success. With ongoing climate change, further research is needed to examine if arrival-breeding intervals become constrained by migration timing, which may limit opportunities for migrants to match the timing of breeding with key resources.

Selection on the vascular-remodeling BMPER gene is associated with altitudinal adaptation in an insular lizard

Abstract High altitude imposes several extreme constraints on life, such as low oxygen pressure and high levels of ultraviolet radiation, which require specialized adaptations. Many studies have focused on how endothermic vertebrates respond to these challenging environments, but there is still uncertainty on how ectotherms adapt to these conditions. Here, we used whole-genome sequencing of low-altitude (100–600 m) and high-altitude (3,550 m) populations of the wide-ranging Tenerife lizard Gallotia galloti to uncover signatures of selection for altitudinal adaptation. The studied populations show reduced differentiation, sharing similar patterns of genetic variation. Selective sweep mapping suggests that signatures of adaptation to high altitude are not widespread across the genome, clustering in a relatively small number of genomic regions. One of these regions contains BMPER, a gene involved with vascular remodeling, and that has been associated with hypoxia-induced angiogenic response. By genotyping samples across 2 altitudinal transects, we show that allele frequency changes at this locus are not gradual, but rather show a well-defined shift above ca. 1,900 m. Transcript and protein structure analyses on this gene suggest that putative selection likely acts on noncoding variation. These results underline how low oxygen pressure generates the most consistent selective constraint in high-altitude environments, to which vertebrates with vastly contrasting physiological profiles need to adapt in the context of ongoing climate change.

Ecological patterns of benthic foraminiferal communities driven by seasonal and spatial environmental gradients in an Arctic fjord

AbstractArctic fjords, being transitional areas between glacier‐covered land and the ocean, are characterized by strong environmental gradients. The seasonal melting of glaciers generates strong turbidity and primary production antagonist gradients, which can affect benthic habitats. Two sampling campaigns were carried out in Kongsfjorden (Svalbard, Arctic Ocean) in May and August 2021 to investigate seasonal changes in benthic foraminifera spatial distribution and ecosystem functioning along a longitudinal transect of 10 km from the Kronebreen tidewater glacier front. Concurrently, organic matter quantity and biochemical composition, sediment grain size, and physical parameters of the water masses were investigated as possible driving factors of benthic ecosystem responses. In a previous study, three statistically determined foraminiferal biozonations (glacier proximal, medial, and distal) were observed on the basis of their species content within the closest 10 km from the glacier front, presenting similar assemblages in both seasons. Our results indicate that foraminiferal distribution at the local scale is mainly driven by physical and geochemical gradients induced by melting waters and sediment discharges from the tidewater glacier occurring during summer. Due to the climate change, the melting season is expected to last longer and increasing global temperature will much probably accelerate the melting processes. Our findings strongly support the use of foraminifera as bioindicators to monitor the effects of ongoing climate change on the benthic ecosystems of Arctic fjords and, accessorily, as proxies for reconstructing glacier front positions in the recent past.

Four decades in the vineyard: the impact of climate change on grapevine phenology and wine quality in northern Italy

The wine sector, among the most profitable agricultural segments, has been markedly affected by the ongoing climate change impacts, such as warmer climate conditions with higher frequency of extreme temperatures and a trend of decreasing precipitation. All this results in higher evaporative demand and therefore higher occurrence of water stress events leading to advancement of temperature-sensitive phenological stages (e.g., budburst and ripening). Such negative effects eventually affect berry development and quality, especially in historically valuable viticultural areas, forcing winegrowers to work within a compressed harvest period to maintain wine typicity. In this work we examined the relationship between environmental variables (air and soil temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and solar radiation), phenology, berry, and wine quality for the two varieties (Chardonnay and Teroldego) in Trentino Alto-Adige/South Tyrol (Italy) over 36 years. Huglin Index (a bioclimatic heat index), growing degree days (measure of heat accumulation), and overall mean temperature showed linear increase (p < 0.001) in the last years, while no variations were recorded for precipitations. Despite no major effects being observed for phenological interval lengths, the onset of most of the phenological stages for both varieties had significantly (p < 0.001) advanced. However, i) early budburst pushed the budburst-flowering interphase by -1.2 days every two years toward putative colder periods with increased late frost probability and potential slower phenological progression towards flowering, and ii) early veraison shifted the veraison-ripening interphase by 0.25 day per year into warmer periods that oppositely impose faster phenological advancement. Hence, a substantial equilibrium in the seasonal growing length over years was maintained. Potential carry-over effects from the previous season were observed, particularly associated with heat requirements to unlock early phenological events, raising additional concerns on the additive effects of climate change to viticulture. Generally, white wine quality increased (p < 0.05) over the years, while red and sparkling wines remained unaffected. This was putatively related to accurate harvest date decision-making dictated by berry quality parameters: sugar-to-acidity ratio for Chardonnay and bunch sanitary status for Teroldego. Overall, this work provides evidence of the dynamics involved in climate change, and, to our knowledge, its overlooked effects on viticulture, thus providing new insights that can contribute to further developing adaptive strategies.

Be prepared: how does discontinuous hydration in Tabebuia heterophylla seeds induce stress tolerance in seedlings?

Discontinuous hydration and dehydration (HD) cycles refer to controlled imbibition followed by dehydration before seed germination. Here, we investigated whether the level of imbibition before HD cycles affects the physiology of Tabebuia heterophylla seeds and seedlings. Seeds were imbibed for 10 h (T1; phase I of imbibition) or 35 h (T2; phase II), dehydrated, and progressively rehydrated one to four times (HD cycles). Germination and biochemical parameters (membrane integrity; total soluble, reducing, and nonreducing (NRS) sugars; proteins, amino acids, proline, H2O2, catalase, ascorbate peroxidase, and glutathione reductase activity) were quantified at the last rehydration step of each cycle. Biometric and biochemical parameters (including pigments) were analysed in seedlings 60 days after germination. HD cycles at T1 led to reduced seed germination and greater plasma membrane damage, higher enzyme activity (catalase and glutathione reductase) and accumulation of NRS, total amino acids, and proline compared to the controls and T2 treatment. Cellular damage became more severe with more HD cycles. HD cycles at T2 synchronized germination regardless of the number of cycles and also had a priming effect. T2 seeds had less NRS, total amino acids, and proline content than T1. HD cycles at T1 produced seedlings with higher carotenoid and total chlorophyll content than controls and T2, while seedlings from HD cycles at T2 had higher amounts of osmoprotectants. HD cycles at T2 benefited seeds and seedlings more than at T1. This suggests that the physiological and biochemical effects of HD cycles in seeds modulate seedling plasticity, depending on water availability, potentially promoting increased tolerance to recurrent droughts that will be intensified with ongoing climate changes.

Global Distribution of Mammalian Cradles and Museums is Driven by Past Climate Dynamics and Present Water–Energy Balance

ABSTRACTAimTo describe worldwide distribution of mammalian cradles and museums using the rates of phylogenetic lineage turnover as a surrogate. Additionally, we investigated the influences of current water–energy dynamics, climate instability, past climate changes and elevational ranges on the distribution of these evolutionary zones.LocationGlobal.Time PeriodCurrent.Major Taxa StudiedTerrestrial mammals.MethodsWe developed a new methodology that consists of calculating the spatial phylogenetic turnover for non‐overlapping temporal segments of phylogenetic trees. By calculating the relative turnover in each tree segment, we quantified the rate of accumulation of phylogenetic turnover through time. We depicted cold and hotspots of rates of lineage turnover using bivariate maps and examined the effects of environmental factors using a path model.ResultsThe distributions of cradles and museums of biodiversity are primarily driven by water–energy dynamics. Environments with higher water availability than energetic demand predominantly act as cradles, as seen in tropical rainforests, while xeric‐like environments predominantly serve as museums. Conversely, regions undergoing higher historical climate changes become cradles, such as in higher northern latitudes, while climatically stable areas function as museums. Mountains play a dual role, acting as both cradles and museums by generating new lineages along their elevation bands while simultaneously providing climate refuges for ancient mammal lineages.Main ConclusionsOur findings demonstrate that cradles and museums are not merely a dichotomy but exist along an evolutionary continuum. Furthermore, they reveal how spatial patterns of mammalian cradles and museums are intricately shaped by biogeographical processes governed by environmental forces. Uncovering these hidden effects provides insights into the ecological mechanisms by which ongoing climate changes continually shape evolutionary assemblages over time.

A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany

Extreme weather events have become more frequent and severe with ongoing climate change, with a huge implication for the agricultural sector and detrimental effects on crop yield. In this study, we compare several combinations of climate indices and utilized the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to explain the probabilities of substantial drops in silage maize yield (here defined as “yield shock” by using a 15th percentile as threshold) in Germany between 1999 and 2020. We compare the variable importance and the predictability skill of six combinations of climate indices using the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC). Finally, we delve into year-to-year predictions by comparing them against the historical series and examining the variables contributing to high and low predicted yield shock probabilities. We find that cold conditions during April and hot and/or dry conditions during July increase the chance of silage maize yield shock. Moreover, a combination of simple variables (e.g. total precipitation) and complex variables (e.g. cumulative cold under cold nights) enhances predictive accuracy. Lastly, we find that the years with higher predicted yield shock probabilities are characterized mainly by relatively hotter and drier conditions during July compared to years with lower yield shock probabilities. Our findings enhance our understanding of how weather impacts maize crop yield shocks and underscore the importance of considering complex variables and using effective selection methods, particularly when addressing climate-related events.