One-percentage Point Increase Research Articles

How tree canopy cover can reduce urban suicide attempts: A geospatial analysis of the moderating role of area deprivation

A lack of knowledge about the benefits of urban trees on mental health is addressed by exploring the association between tree canopy coverage, suicide attempts and the levels of neighborhood deprivation. Although the positive association between tree canopy cover and mental health as well as a negative association between neighborhood socioeconomic status and suicide attempts are well-known, it remains largely unclear how both area deprivation and tree canopy cover can help predicting local suicide attempts. Using the local suicide records (n = 3442) between 2015 and 2019 in the city of Cincinnati, OH, we analyzed if the number of local suicide attempts was related to the tree canopy cover at the census block group level (n = 275). After adjusting for control variables, we found that as the deprivation level gets a one-percentage point higher, the number of attempted suicide rate significantly increases by 1.05 %, while a one-percentage point increase in tree canopy coverage significantly decreases the attempted suicide rate by 0.9 %. Additionally, the level of area deprivation showed a moderating effect on the association between overall tree canopy and attempted suicide. Our findings suggest that local tree canopy cover could be a useful tool to improve local mental health including suicide attempts. More importantly, the benefit of tree canopy cover was stronger in less disadvantaged areas than in highly disadvantaged areas, which provides a new insight that interventions to qualitatively improve green space may be important for improving mental health in left-behind areas as a form of environmental justice.

IS TRADE AGAINST OR IN FAVOR OF WOMEN? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN TURKEY

This paper studies the effect of trade openness on relative wage earnings of female workers in Turkey’s manufacturing sector. We compute the export intensity of a sector by dividing the export value to production value as our measure of trade openness. Using Structure of Earnings Survey data for 2010 and 2014, we estimate the impact of export intensity on the gender wage gap. Our results indicate that a onepercentage point increase in the export intensity of a sector leads to a 0.17 percent higher gender wage gap. We further investigate the trade-gender wage gap link by grouping the sectors into four quartiles according to their export intensities. Our estimations for each quartile reinforce our finding of a negative impact of trade on the male-female wage inequality. Lastly, we analyze how the wage gap between men and women change according to skill levels. In line with the previous findings in the literature, we estimate a higher wage discrimination against high-skill women.

Does Social Connectedness Affect Stock Market Participation?

Using IRS tax filing data, I show that social network and word-of-mouth communications play an important role in stock market participation decisions. Using a novel dataset from Facebook, I construct a measure of social network friends' participation for US counties and find that a one-percentage point increase in friends' participation increases the focal county participation by 14 to 25 basis points in the following year. For identification strategy, I employ the revelation of financial misconducts as an exogenous negative shock to local participation rate and show that the instrumented change in friend participation significantly and positively predicts the change in focal county participation rates. The increase in participation rates among the low-income households induced by friends' participation decreases the Gini coefficients in metropolitan counties in the following two years. The evidence suggests that social influences and peer effects contribute to the cross-sectional differences in the stock market participation rates across US counties and may lead to lower income inequality.

Remittance inflows and financial development: evidence from the top recipient countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT This paper utilizes a panel cointegration approach to investigate the relationship between remittances and financial development in the top remittance recipient countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results point to a significant and positive long-run relationship. More specifically, the pooled-mean group estimates indicate that a one-percentage point increase in remittance inflows promotes financial development by more than one percentage point. In addition, the results support the existence of bidirectional causality between remittances and financial development in the long-run. We also find some evidence that remittance pricing has a negative impact on the long-run relationship between remittances and financial development. While the results suggest that remittance inflows promote financial development, migrant workers may be timing the foreign exchange market to remit.

Obesity and bankruptcy: Evidence from US counties

Using annual county-level data on nonbusiness bankruptcy for the period 2005–2017 and obesity for the period 2004–2016, this paper finds that higher obesity rates are associated with higher bankruptcy rates beyond what can be explained by local economic conditions and demographic characteristics, state-specific economic shocks, and county-specific time trends. The magnitude suggests that a one-percentage point increase in the obesity rate is associated with a 0.02−0.03 increase (or a 1.0 percent increase) in Chapter 7 bankruptcy rates per 1000 residents and a 0.02−0.04 increase (or a 3–4 percent increase) in Chapter 13 bankruptcy rates per 1000 residents.

Does Unemployment Worsen Babies’ Health? A Tale of Siblings, Maternal Behaviour and Selection

We study the effect of unemployment on birth outcomes by exploiting geographical variation in the unemployment rate across local areas in England, and comparing siblings born to the same mother via family fixed effects. Using rich individual data from hospital administrative records between 2003 and 2012, babies' health is found to be strongly pro-cyclical. A one-percentage point increase in the unemployment rate leads to an increase in low birth weight and preterm babies of respectively 1.3 and 1.4%, and a 0.1% decrease in foetal growth. We find heterogenous responses: unemployment has an effect on babies' health which varies from strongly adverse in the most deprived areas, to mildly favourable in the most prosperous areas. We provide evidence of three channels that can explain the overall negative effect of unemployment on new-born health: maternal stress; unhealthy behaviours - namely excessive alcohol consumption and smoking; and delays in the take-up of prenatal services. While the heterogenous effects of unemployment by area of deprivation seem to be explained by maternal behaviour. Most importantly, we also show for the first time that selection into fertility is the main driver for the previously observed, opposite counter-cyclical results, e.g., Dehejia and Lleras-Muney (2004). Our results are robust to internal migration, different geographical aggregation of the unemployment rate, the use of gender-specific unemployment rates, and potential endogeneity of the unemployment rate which we control for by using a shift-share instrumental variable approach.

The impact of recent power morcellator risk information on inpatient surgery and patient outcomes.

Aim: We examine the impact of the new risk information about a surgical device on surgery and patient outcomes for hysterectomy in the inpatient setting. Methods: We utilize a difference-in-differences approach to assess the impact of new risk information on patient outcomes in the inpatient setting between 2009 and 2014. The inpatient data come from a nationally representative sample of hospitalizations in the USA. We use the likelihood of laparoscopic surgery, measures of resource use and surgical complications as outcome variables. Results: We estimate a three-percentage point decrease in the likelihood of receiving laparoscopic hysterectomy, a one-percentage point increase in the likelihood of experiencing a surgical complication and no impact on resource use, relative to pre-existing means. Conclusion: Our findings show that there was movement away from laparoscopic surgery in the months following the dissemination of new risk information. These changes had limited effect on patient outcomes.

Male-female disparities in the relationship between child maltreatment and labor market outcomes: A case study of Texas

•During the Great Recession, a one-percentage point increase in the male unemployment rate is associated with a 0.8% increase in the child maltreatment report rate.•During the Great Recesion, a one-percentage point increase in the female employment popluation ratio is associated with a 0.8% increase in the child maltreatment report rate.•During the Great Recession, a one-percentage point increase in the male unemployment rate is associated with a 1.7% increase in the substantitation rate.•During the Great Recession, a one-percentage point increase in the female employment population ratio is associated with a 1.1% increase in the substantiation rate.

Does Unemployment Worsen Babies' Health? A Tale of Siblings, Maternal Behaviour and Selection

We study the effect of unemployment on birth outcomes by exploiting geographical variation in the unemployment rate across local areas in England, and comparing siblings born to the same mother via family fixed effects. Using rich individual data from hospital administrative records between 2003 and 2012, babies’ health is found to be strongly procyclical. A one-percentage point increase in the unemployment rate leads to an increase in low birth weight and preterm babies of respectively 1.3 and 1.4%, and a 0.1% decrease in foetal growth. We find heterogenous responses: unemployment has an effect on babies’ health which varies from strongly adverse in the most deprived areas, to mildly favourable in the most prosperous areas. We provide evidence of three channels that can explain the overall negative effect of unemployment on new-born health: maternal stress; unhealthy behaviours - namely excessive alcohol consumption and smoking; and delays in the takeup of prenatal services. While the heterogenous effects of unemployment by area of deprivation seem to be explained by maternal behaviour. Most importantly, we also show for the first time that selection into fertility is the main driver for the previously observed, opposite counter-cyclical results, e.g., Dehejia and Lleras-Muney (2004). Our results are robust to internal migration, different geographical aggregation of the unemployment rate, the use of gender-specific unemployment rates, and potential endogeneity of the unemployment rate which we control for by using a shift-share instrumental variable approach

The Pass-Through of Bank Capital Requirements to Corporate Lending Spreads

This paper studies the impact of higher bank capital requirements on corporate lending spreads. We conduct an empirical analysis using granular bank- and loan-level data for Switzerland. Overall, we find a positive relationship between capital ratios, actual and required, and lending spreads. The relationship is statistically significant but economically small. According to our results, a one-percentage point increase of capital ratios (risk- weighted) leads to an increase in lending spreads between 0 and 5 basis points. This figure is higher - between 5 and 20 basis points - for unweighted capital ratios (leverage ratios), partly but not only reflecting scaling effects. We find support in favor of gradual phasing-in of new requirements as banks with capital shortfalls relative to their short-run regulatory requirements charge higher spreads relative to institutions with surpluses while the effects are weaker for look-through capital shortfalls. Holding additional capital when requirements are raised is associated with lower spreads vis-a-vis peers.

Re-engineering methadone—Cost-effectiveness analysis of a patient-centered approach to methadone treatment

Methadone maintenance treatment has proven effectiveness in the treatment of opioid use disorder, but significant barriers remain to treatment retention. In a randomized clinical trial, 300 newly-admitted methadone patients were randomly assigned to patient-centered methadone (PCM) v. treatment-as-usual (TAU). In PCM, participants were treated under revised program rules which permitted voluntary attendance at counseling and other changes focused on reducing involuntary discharge, and different staff roles which shifted disciplinary responsibility from the participant's counselor to the supervisor. The study found no significant differences in treatment retention, measures of opioid use, or other patient outcomes. This paper employs an activity-based costing approach to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of the two study conditions. We found that service use and costs were similar between PCM and TAU. Specifically, the average cost for PCM patients was $2396 compared to $2292 for standard methadone, while the average length of stay was 2 weeks longer for PCM patients. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for self-reported heroin use, opioid positive urine screens, and meeting DSM-IV criteria for opioid dependence were mixed, with TAU achieving non-significantly better outcomes at lower treatment episode costs (i.e., economically dominating) for opioid positive urine screens. PCM patients reported slightly more days abstinent from heroin and fewer meet the opioid dependence criteria. While these differences are small and not statistically significant, we can still examine the cost-effectiveness implications. For days, abstinent from heroin, the ICER was $242 for one additional day of abstinence, however, there was notable uncertainty around this estimate. For opioid dependence criteria, the ICER was $1160 for a one-percentage point increase in the probability that a participant no longer met criteria for opioid dependence at follow-up. This economic study finds that patient choice concepts can be introduced into methadone treatment without significant impacts on costs or patient outcomes.

Bank lending and loan quality: an emerging economy perspective

This paper analyses how non-performing loans (NPLs) in the emerging economy of India behave through the cycle. We find that a one-percentage point increase in loan growth is associated with an increase in NPLs over total advances (NPL ratio) of 4.1% in the long run with the response being higher during expansionary phases. Furthermore, NPL ratios of banks are found to be sensitive to the interest rate environment and the overall growth of the economy. Notwithstanding differences in management and governance structures, there is a procyclical risk-taking response to credit growth in the case of both public and private banks with private banks being more reactive to changes in interest rate and business cycle conditions.

The Impact of U.S. Imports from China on U.S. Consumer Prices and Expenditures

The objective of this study is to estimate the extent of the benefits to U.S. consumers that may be attributable to access to imported consumer goods from China. Imported consumer goods can keep the levels and rates of increases of the prices of consumer goods in the U.S. low, thus benefitting U.S. consumers. The focus is on the effects of imports of apparel and non-oil consumer goods on their prices in the U.S. and consequently on the respective U.S. household consumption expenditures on these goods. It will be demonstrated empirically that Chinese imports into the United States have helped to keep the prices of consumer goods low in the U.S. since 1994. It is found that between 1994 and 2017, a one-percentage-point increase in the share of U.S. apparel imports from China would lower the annual rate of growth of the U.S. apparel price index by approximately 0.2 percentage point. Similarly, a one-percentage point increase in the share of U.S. non-oil imports (which include apparel imports) from China would lower the annual rate of growth of U.S. non-oil price index by approximately 1.0 percentage point. The level of the U.S. CPI in 2017 would have been 27 percent higher if the share of U.S. non-oil imports originated from China had remained at its 1994 level of 6.2 percent. The reduced price of non-oil consumer goods has resulted in an estimated average annual saving for U.S. consumers of US$623 billion between 1994 and 2016, approximately 12 percent of the average annual U.S. non-oil consumer expenditure during the same period.

The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education

This paper examines the impact of Syrian refugees on high school enrollment rates of native youth in Turkey. Syrian refugees are, on average, less skilled and more willing to work in low-pay informal jobs than Turkish natives. Refugees can influence native youth’s school enrollment likelihood negatively through educational ex- perience. But, at the same time, they can affect enrollment rates positively as they escalate competition for jobs with low-skill requirements. Using micro data from 2006 to 2016 and employing quasi-experimental methods, I find that high- school enrollment rates increased 2.7-3.6 percentage points among native youth in refugee- receiving regions. Furthermore, a one-percentage point increase in the refugee-to-population ratio in a region generates around 0.4 percentage point increase in native’s high school enrollment rates. Most of the increase in high school enrollment comes from young males with lower parental backgrounds, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the main mechanism operates through the low-skill labor market. The regressions control for (i) variables proxying parental investment in human capital such as parental education, being in an intact family, and household size, (ii) regional economic activity, and (iii) regional availability of high schools and high school teachers.

Impact of US Smoke-free Air Laws on Restaurant and Bar Employment, 1990-2015.

Secondhand smoke exposure is responsible for an estimated 50000 deaths per year among nonsmokers in the United States. Smoke-free air laws reduce secondhand smoke exposure but often encounter opposition over concerns about their economic impact. Expansion of these laws has stagnated and efforts to weaken existing laws may exacerbate existing disparities in exposure. Studies at the state and local levels have found that smoke-free air laws do not generally have an adverse effect, but there are no recent estimates of the impact of these laws nationally. Employment and sales are two measures commonly used to estimate the economic impact of smoke-free air laws. Sales data are gathered by state and local taxing authorities but not uniformly across jurisdictions. Dynamic panel models are used to estimate a population-weighted national average treatment effect of smoke-free air laws on restaurant and bar employment using data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for 1990 to 2015. A one-percentage point increase in population covered by a restaurant smoke-free air law is associated with a small increase (approximately 0.01%) in restaurant employment (b = .0001, p < .001). The percentage of state population covered by a bar smoke-free air law was not associated with bar employment. Smoke-free air laws are a powerful tool for protecting hospitality workers and patrons from the dangers of secondhand smoke. Using data from over more than two decades, these results suggest that smoke-free air laws in the United States do not generally have any meaningful effect on restaurant and bar employment. Smoke-free air laws are associated with reductions in negative health outcomes and decreased smoking prevalence. Despite this clear public health argument and strong public support, passage of new laws has stagnated and exemptions are being used to weaken existing laws. The ability to make both a health and business case in support of existing laws may also bolster the case for expansion. This study provides an updated look at the economic impact of smoke-free air laws nationally through 2015. The lack of adverse findings provides additional support for these laws as public health win-win.

Education and the minimum wage in the United States

ABSTRACTThis article shows that, across the US states, the level of education has a causal effect on the minimum wage. More specifically, it argues that a one-percentage point increase in the proportion of college graduates implies a 0.4–0.5% decrease in the real value of the minimum wage. This is the first article that uses System GMM in order to examine the effect of education on the minimum wage. Given the structure of the available data, this is the most appropriate econometric technique. System GMM not only controls for endogeneity and for fixed effects but also maximizes the precision of the estimates by using all the available variation in the data.

Levels and determinants of tree pollen in New York City.

Exposure to allergenic tree pollen is a risk factor for multiple allergic disease outcomes. Little is known about how tree pollen levels vary within cities and whether such variation affects the development or exacerbation of allergic disease. Accordingly, we collected integrated pollen samples at uniform height at 45 sites across New York City during the 2013 pollen season. We used these monitoring results in combination with adjacent land use data to develop a land use regression model for tree pollen. We evaluated four types of land use variables for inclusion in the model: tree canopy, distributed building height (a measure of building volume density), elevation, and distance to water. When included alone in the model, percent tree canopy cover within a 0.5 km radial buffer explained 39% of the variance in tree pollen (1.9% increase in tree pollen per one-percentage point increase in tree canopy cover, P<0.0001). The inclusion of additional variables did not improve model fit. We conclude that intra-urban variation in tree canopy is an important driver of tree pollen exposure. Land use regression models can be used to incorporate spatial variation in tree pollen exposure in studies of allergic disease outcomes.

The Effect of Taxation and Corruption on Firm Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Vietnam

The aim of this study is to analyze empirically the impact of taxation and corruption on the growth of manufacturing firms in Vietnam. The study employed pooled OLS estimation and then instrument variables with fixed effect for the panel data of 1377 firms in Vietnam from 2005 to 2011. These data were obtained from the survey of the Central Institute for Economic Management and the Danish International Development Agency. The results show that both taxation and corruption are negatively associated with firm growth measured by firm sales adjusted according to the GDP deflator. A one-percentage point increase in the bribery rate is linked with a reduction of 16,883 percentage points in firm revenue, over four and a half times bigger than the effect of a one-percentage point increase in the tax rate. From the findings of this research, the author recommends the Vietnam government to lessen taxation on firms and that there should be an urgent revolution in anti-corruption policies as well as bureaucratic improvement in Vietnam.

Does Segregation Lead to Lower Birth Weight?: An Instrumental Variable Approach.

Racial residential segregation in the United States has been linked to racial differences in birth outcomes, with studies reporting associations between segregation and birth weight. However, this relationship is likely confounded, and many individual and neighborhood-level covariates included in previous models are likely mediators, potentially obscuring any causal impact of segregation on birth weight. We compiled a record of non-Hispanic black and white singleton births to US-born/resident mothers in 2000, linked to segregation indices at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level in the non-Southern US. Segregation was measured via the dissimilarity index. The outcomes were individual-level birth weight and the metropolitan statistical area-level black/white gap in birth weight. We instrumented for segregation using the railroad division index. We compared race-stratified ordinary least squares models to two-stage least squares models, with cluster robust standard errors. We estimated a 1.2 g decrease in black birth weight for every one-percentage point increase in segregation (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.9, -0.50) via ordinary least squares but a 2.8 g decrease (95% CI: -6.0, 0.48) using two-stage least squares. For white infants, our ordinary least squares estimate was 0.53 (95% CI: -0.23, 1.3), and our two-stage least squares estimate was in the opposite direction (-0.68, 95% CI: -3.5, 2.1). Ordinary least squares estimates may understate the effect of segregation on birth weight in blacks. Evidence from instrumental variable models was consistent with a causal impact of segregation on black birth outcomes, but estimates were imprecise and may be affected by weak instrument bias.

Air Pollution and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure

One of the consequences of rapid economic growth and industrialization in the developing world has been deterioration in environmental conditions and air quality. While air pollution is a serious threat to health in most developing countries, environmental regulations are rare and the determination to address the problem is weak due to ongoing pressures to sustain robust economic growth. Under these constraints, natural gas, as a clean, abundant, and highly-efficient source of energy, has emerged as an increasingly attractive source of fuel, which could address some of the environmental and health challenges faced by these countries without undermining their economies. In this paper, we examine the impact of air pollution on infant mortality in Turkey using variation across provinces and over time in the adoption of natural gas as a cleaner fuel. Our results indicate that the expansion of natural gas infrastructure has caused a significant decrease in the rate of infant mortality in Turkey. In particular, a one-percentage point increase in the rate of subscriptions to natural gas services would cause the infant mortality rate to decline by 4 percent, which could result in 348 infant lives saved in 2011 alone. These results are robust to a large number of specifications. Finally, we use supplemental data on total particulate matter and sulfur dioxide to produce direct estimates of the effects of these pollutants on infant mortality using natural gas expansion as an instrument. Our elasticity estimates from the instrumental variable analysis are 1.25 for particulate matter and 0.63 for sulfur dioxide.