One Day International Research Articles

In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day International cricket: A dynamic logistic regression model

The paper presents a model for forecasting the outcomes of One-Day International cricket matches whilst the game is in progress. Our ‘in-play’ model is dynamic, in the sense that the parameters of the underlying logistic regression model are allowed to evolve smoothly as the match progresses. The use of this dynamic logistic regression approach reduces the number of parameters required dramatically, produces stable and intuitive forecast probabilities, and has a minimal effect on the explanatory power. Cross-validation techniques are used to identify the variables to be included in the model. We demonstrate the use of our model using two matches as examples, and compare the match result probabilities generated using our model with those from the betting market. The forecasts are similar quantitatively, a result that we take to be evidence that our modelling approach is appropriate.

Yes, one-day international cricket ‘in-play’ trading strategies can be profitable!

Abstract In this study, we employ a Monte Carlo simulation technique for estimating the conditional probability of victory at any stage in the first or second innings of a one-day international (ODI) cricket match. This model is then used to test market efficiency in the Betfair ‘in-play’ market for large sample of ODI matches. We find strong evidence of overreaction in the first innings. A trading strategy of betting on the batting team after the fall of a wicket produces a significant profit of 20%. We also find some evidence of underreaction in the second innings although it is less economically and statistically significant than the first innings overreaction. We also implement trades when the discrepancy between the probability of victory implied by current market odds differs substantially from the odds estimated by our Monte Carlo simulation model. We document a number of trading strategies that yield large statistically significant positive returns in both the first and second innings.

Yes, One-Day International Cricket In-Playy Trading Strategies Can Be Profitable!

In this study, we employ a Monte Carlo simulation technique for estimating the probability of victory at any stage in the first or second innings of a one-day international (ODI) cricket match. This model is then used to test market efficiency in the Betfair ‘in-play’ market for a large sample of ODI matches. We find strong evidence of overreaction in the first innings. A trading strategy of betting on the batting team after the fall of a wicket produces a significant profit of 20%. We also find some evidence of underreaction in the second innings, although it is less economically and statistically significant than the first innings overreaction. We also implement trades when the discrepancy between the probability of victory implied by current market odds differs substantially from the odds estimated by our Monte Carlo simulation. We document a number of trading strategies that yield large statistically significant positive returns in both the first and second innings.

Bowlers’ Performances in 2013 Champions Trophy

Cricket is becoming a fashionable team game throughout the world. One day internationals (ODI) have been able to bring more and more spectators to the cricket ground, due to the nature of its’ format. Among the ODI tournaments, the Champions trophy takes a significant place, as it is the second largest tournament after the global event of cricket world cup. This paper investigates the performances of the bowlers who appeared in the 2013 Champions trophy. The main aim of this study is to identify the bowlers’ characteristics which impact their performances. The kernel resampling technique (KRT) is implemented to analyze the collected sample (N=41) of the bowlers who played the Champions trophy in 2013. Findings of this study reveal that the bowlers’ prior economy rate and the height have influenced the performance significantly, while the handedness and the bowling style have not shown a statistical significance on their performances.

A Bayesian stochastic model for batting performance evaluation in one-day cricket

We consider the modeling of individual batting performance in one-day international (ODI) cricket by using a batsman-specific hidden Markov model (HMM). The batsman-specific number of hidden states allows us to account for the heterogeneous dynamics found in batting performance. Parallel sampling is used to choose the optimal number of hidden states. Using the batsman-specific HMM, we then introduce measures of performance to assess individual players via reliability analysis. By classifying states as either up or down, we compute the availability, reliability, failure rate and mean time to failure for each batsman. By choosing an appropriate classification of states, an overall prediction of batting performance of a batsman can be made. The classification of states can also be modified according to the type of game under consideration. One advantage of this batsman-specific HMM is that it does not require the consideration of unforeseen factors. This is important since cricket has gone through several rule changes in recent years that have further induced unforeseen dynamic factors to the game. We showcase the approach using data from 20 different batsmen having different underlying dynamics and representing different countries.

20-Over Versus 50-Over Cricket

Using 2008-2009 data, we identify winning input combinations for the game of cricket in two different formats: 50-over one-day internationals and 20-over games from Twenty20 internationals and the Indian Premier League. We find that attacking batting and bowling are the best determinants of the winning probability in both formats in an international setting despite their 30-over difference. Interestingly, attacking batting and defensive bowling are the optimal input combinations in the league version of the 20-over format. Finally, we speculate about their implications for the future of cricket, especially for the popularity of formats, choices of players, and player development.

Cricket and corruption: the post-apartheid relationship between India and South Africa within and beyond the boundary

International sports sanctions against the apartheid government resulted in the isolation of South African cricket from 1970 to 1991. When South Africa was readmitted to world cricket, India was the first to welcome the ‘new’ South Africa onto the international scene and the team played three one-day internationals in India to much fanfare and capacity crowds. The game of cricket has changed dramatically since South Africa's readmission. These changes include the emergence of powerful television stations and mega-dollar payments, which has shifted the power away from administrators, the ‘invention’ of a shorter version of the game (T20 cricket), and the formation of the Indian Premier League (IPL), which attests to the power of India in world cricket, as well as betting and match-fixing. As a result of television, cricket is now a global game that can be watched all year round. This growth has been accompanied by seedier developments, with betting scandals involving some of the great names in international cricket being one example. All though this period, India and South Africa enjoyed a ‘special relationship’, one that culminated in the sacking of Gerald Majola, the Chief Executive of Cricket South Africa, and Lalit Modi, Chairman of the IPL, followed by a souring of that relationship with the appointment of Haroon Lorgat as CEO of Cricket South Africa (CSA) in July 2013 against the wishes of the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI).

Identifying the greatest team and captain—A complex network approach to cricket matches

We consider all Test matches played between 1877 and 2010 and One Day International (ODI) matches played between 1971 and 2010. We form directed and weighted networks of teams and also of their captains. The success of a team (or captain) is determined by the ‘quality’ of the wins, not simply by the number of wins. We apply the diffusion-based PageRank algorithm to the networks to assess the importance of the wins, and rank the respective teams and captains. Our analysis identifies Australia as the best team in both forms of cricket, Test and ODI. Steve Waugh is identified as the best captain in Test cricket and Ricky Ponting is the best captain in the ODI format. We also compare our ranking scheme with an existing ranking scheme, the Reliance ICC ranking. Our method does not depend on ‘external’ criteria in the ranking of teams (captains). The purpose of this paper is to introduce a revised ranking of cricket teams and to quantify the success of the captains.

Cricket for people who don't like cricket?: Twenty20 as expression of the cultural and media zeitgeist

In the run-up to the cricket One Day International (ODI) World Cup played on the Indian subcontinent in the spring of 2011, an interesting fact emerged, albeit one not directly related to prospective events on the field of play.

Team selection after a short cricket series

The selection of a cricket team cannot be fair unless the best available performance measures are used. The traditional batting average can be very unrealistic, especially in the case of a small number of scores with a high proportion of not out scores. In the present study the focus is on using the most suitable measures for the selection of a team after a small number of matches had been played. Provision is made for the fact that match conditions may influence the scoring rate of batsmen. These measures are used for illustration purposes to select a team from the players who played in the International Cricket Council (ICC) Champions Trophy 2009 One-Day International (ODI) Series. It is shown how an integer programming method can be used for the selection process. The approach is that a well balanced cricket team should include different kinds of specialists, namely batsmen, bowlers, all-rounders and a wicket-keeper. A selection committee may be able to rank batsmen in order of batting ability and bowlers according to bowling ability, but when it comes to all-rounders it is not so simple. The fact that an all-rounder is, by definition, a good batsman and also a good bowler, makes it difficult to rank all-rounders. Furthermore, how many of each specialist type should be selected? The purpose of this paper is to show how integer optimisation, an objective scientific method, can be used to aid in selecting a cricket team. Guidelines are also given for the selection of a team if career performance data have to be used.

Injury patterns of South African international cricket players over a two-season period

Objective. The aim of the study was to determine the incidence and nature of injury patterns of South African international cricket players. Methods. A questionnaire was completed for each cricketer who presented with an injury during the 2004 - 2005 (S1) and 2005 - 2006 (S2) cricket seasons to determine the anatomical site, month, diagnosis and mechanism of injury. Results. The results showed that 113 injuries were sustained, with a match exposure time of 1 906 hours for one-day internationals (ODIs) and 5 070 hours for test matches. The injury prevalence was 4% per match, while the incidence of injury was 90 injuries per 10 000 hours of matches. Injuries occurred mostly to the lower limbs, back and trunk, upper limbs and head and neck. The injuries occurred primarily during test matches (43%), practices (20%) and practices and matches (19%). Acute injuries comprised 87% of the injuries. The major injuries during S1 were haematomas (20 %), muscle strains (14%) and other trauma (20%), while during S2 the injuries were primarily muscle strains (16%), other trauma (32%), tendinopathy (10%) and acute sprains (12%). The primary mechanisms of injury occurred when bowling (67%), on impact by the ball (batting – 65%, fielding – 26%) and when sliding for the ball (19%). Conclusion. The study provided prospective injury incidence and prevalence data for South African cricketers playing at international level over a two-season period, high-lighting the increased injury prevalence for away matches and an increased match injury incidence for test and ODI matches possibly as a result of increased match exposure time.

Movement patterns and physical strain during a novel, simulated cricket batting innings (BATEX)

A simulated cricket batting innings was developed to replicate the physical demands of scoring a century during One-Day International cricket. The simulated innings requires running-between-the-wickets across six 5-over stages, each of 21 min duration. To validate whether the simulated batting innings is reflective of One-Day International batting, movement patterns were collected using a global positioning system (GPS) and compared with previous research. In addition, indicators of physical strain were recorded (heart rate, jump heights, sweat loss, tympanic temperature). Nine club cricketers (mean ± s: age 20 ± 3 years; body mass 79.5 ± 7.9 kg) performed the simulated innings outdoors. There was a moderate trend for distance covered in the simulated innings to be less than that during One-Day batting (2171 ± 157 vs. 2476 ± 631 m · h−1; effect size = 0.78). This difference was largely explained by a strong trend for less distance covered walking in the simulated innings than in One-Day batting (1359 ± 157 vs. 1604 ± 438 m · h−1; effect size = 1.61). However, there was a marked trend for distance covered both striding and sprinting to be greater in the simulated innings than in One-Day batting (effect size > 1.2). Practically, the simulated batting innings may be used for match-realistic physical training and as a research protocol to assess the demands of prolonged, high-intensity cricket batting.

A hedonic model of player wage determination from the Indian Premier League auction: Further evidence

A range of cross-sectional models are estimated with a view to establishing the factors that determine the valuation of professional athletes in a highly-specialised sport, with an application to cricket's Indian Premier League (IPL). We distinguish between personal characteristic and playing ability factors, and with respect to the former, between ability in different forms of the sport. We find a number of interpretable variables that have explanatory power over auction values, while decomposition according to batting and bowling specialisations produces very different results depending on the use of either Test or One-Day International (ODI) variables. There is also possible evidence of inefficient bidding, insomuch that overbidding was somewhat correlated with players with higher realised values.

State of the Art, Nomenclature, and Points of Consensus and Controversy Concerning Benign Melanocytic Lesions: Outcome of an International Workshop

The following communication summarizes the proceedings of a one-day International Workshop focusing on the histology of benign melanocytic nevi. Areas of controversy identified in 6 focus sessions were the nomenclature and relationships among common nevi including nevi with halo reactions, traumatized nevi, "dysplastic" nevi, and nevi from particular anatomic sites; developmental biology and frequency of malignant transformation associated with congenital nevi; the characterization and biologic nature of atypical spitzoid neoplasms; the basic definition of particular melanocytic cellular phenotypes, and the nomenclature and biologic nature of many candidate blue nevi, combined nevi, and other controversial lesions such as deep penetrating nevus and pigmented epithelioid melanocytoma. Concentrated data collection and follow-up, molecular characterization, and future consensus Workshops may facilitate the resolution of some of these problems. The Group recommended the description of ambiguous or "borderline" lesions as tumors with indeterminate or uncertain biologic/malignant potential. The participants also advised that such lesions at a minimum should be managed by complete excision with clear surgical margins.

Variability in Movement Patterns During One Day Internationals by a Cricket Fast Bowler

The time-motion characteristics and the within-athlete variability in movement patterns were quantified for the same male fast bowler playing One Day International (ODI) cricket matches (n=12). A number of different time motion characteristics were monitored using a portable 5-Hz global positioning system (GPS) unit (Catapult, Melbourne, Australia). The bowler's mean workload per ODI was 8+/-2 overs (mean+/-SD). He covered a total distance of 15.9+/-2.5 km per game; 12+/-3% or 1.9+/-0.2 km was striding (0.8+/-0.2 km) or sprinting (1.1+/-0.2 km), whereas 10.9+/-2.1 km was spent walking. One high-intensity (running, striding, or sprinting) repetition (HIR) occurred every 68+/-12 s, and the average duration of a HI effort was 2.7+/-0.1 s. The player also completed 66+/-11 sprints per game; mean sprint distance was 18+/-3 m and maximum sprinting speed 8.3+/-0.9 m.s(-1). The movement patterns of this fast bowler were a combination of highly intermittent activities of variable intensity on the base of approximately 16 km per game. This information provides insight for conditioning coaches to determine the physical demands and to adapt the training and recovery processes of ODI fast bowlers.

An analysis of players\' performances in the first cricket Twenty20 World Cup series

The purpose of this paper is to show how batting and bowling performance measures for one-day internationals can be adapted for use in Twenty20 matches, specifically in the case of a very small number of matches played. These measures are then used to give rankings of the batsmen and bowlers who performed best in the first Twenty20 World Cup Series. Keywords: Batting performance; Bowling performance; Ranking of batsmen; Ranking of bowlers. South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation Vol. 30 (2) 2008: pp. 71-77

More than a game: globalization and the post‐Westernization of world cricket

Abstract In this article I argue that, rather than focusing on the global diffusion of cricket and the reasons why it has been adopted in some countries but not others, the relationship between globalization and cricket is better understood in terms of the post‐Westernization of the international game. The post‐Westernization of cricket is associated with the rise to prominence of the One‐Day International (ODI) vis‐à‐vis the more traditional Test match format and this, in turn, is associated with a shift in the balance of administrative power away from Lord's (in London) towards Asian cricket, centred on India, and the relocation of the ICC to Dubai. In this shift, the ODI has been utilized by India as the means to prise power away from the traditional centres.

Selecting a limited overs cricket squad using an integer programming model

An integer programming model was developed to select an one day international (ODI) cricket squad of 15 players. To develop the method, batting, bowling and fielding ability, which are measured differently, had to be placed onto the same scale, so an ability-indexing technique was used. This paper describes the ability-indexing and integer programme used and discusses the results of an empirical study conducted using the statistics of 32 South African cricket players. South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and Recreation Vol. 28(2) 2006: 81-90

3 rd Intl. ICSE workshop on software engineering for automotive systems

This workshop summary outlines the main results of the one-day International Workshop on Software Engineering for Automotive Systems [5], held in conjunction with the 28th International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE'06). In the sequel, a brief overview of the presented papers is given and the most interesting discussions are highlighted.

Profiling Spectators at a One-day International Cricket Match

Sport events have become major tourism products and promote destinations globally. Since South Africa's re-admission to international cricket in 1991 the country has established itself as one of the leaders in world cricket, boasting some of the finest stadiums in the world. Touring international sides, accompanied by hundreds of national and international tourists in the form of spectators, players, media and medical staff have an impact on the host community. This research argues that it is important to have thorough knowledge of the profile of the cricket spectator since this information is useful not only for marketing purposes but also to establish the nature and impact of these events on the host community. A survey was performed among cricket spectators at a one-day international cricket match in Potchefstroom, South Africa, where South Africa competed against Australia. This survey was used to compile a profile of an average one-day cricket spectator, with the aim to develop current and future marketing strategies.