Olecranon osteotomy has been associated with loss of reduction, nonunion, implant failure, and migration of wires. We aim to evaluate quality of reduction of the osteotomy site as a predictor of olecranon osteotomy nonunion. One hundred and twenty-five distal humerus fractures that underwent open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) were reviewed. Amount of dorsal step-off was measured from the lateral radiograph from the second postoperative visit. A receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was used to assess the predictability of nonunion based on dorsal displacement of the olecranon osteotomy. Between 2014 and 2022, 36 patients underwent a chevron olecranon osteotomy (29%). Of the 36 patients, 7 (19%) failed to successfully unite at the osteotomy site. Two experienced aseptic nonunion, 2 were malreduced leading to nonunion, 2 malunited, and 1 had persistent fracture lines following poor osteotomy cut. Patients that developed nonunion had a mean dorsal displacement of 3.87mm versus 1.15mm (p < 0.001). The ROC demonstrated excellent prediction for nonunion based on displacement (AUC = 0.896, p = 0.002). Youden's index was determined at a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 73% corresponding to a dorsal step-off of 2.07mm. This finding was confirmed on multivariate logistic regression showing a step-off over 2.07mm is an independent predictor of olecranon osteotomy nonunion (p = 0.021). A malreduction resulting in a dorsal step-off larger than 2.07mm is predictive of olecranon osteotomy nonunion or malreduction. Therefore, the success of the olecranon osteotomy approach is directly dependent on quality of anatomic reduction. III; Retrospective Cohort Study.
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