Most of you reading this are thinking, okay, he’s SPE President, he must know something I don’t know, see something I don’t see, etc. The truth is we are all in the same storm of pandemic+economic crisis=chaos. Our salvation is that humans have evolved and survived not despite adversity but because of it. Humans do not like uncertainty - real or perceived. Uncertainty causes anxiety, and anxiety clouds one’s thinking. My advice is to focus on what you know, what you believe in, and what you can do. These actions are tangible and necessary. The recent industry news is truly unnerving. Nearly 50 companies in North America have filed for bankruptcy during the second and third quarters of 2020, while others are making deep cuts in their workforce. Globally, multinational oil and gas operators and oilfield services providers are reducing staff by 10-20% (15% appears to be an average). The result is job losses totaling more than 100,000. As the pandemic drags on and demand remains contracted, these numbers are only expected to rise. This hit to our industry is personal for me (and likely for most of you). Many of my former students, friends, and family are affected by the economic calamity that we are currently experiencing, some more severely than others. Please keep in mind that many of us are faring reasonably well, but to someone who has lost their job, it is more than their livelihood - it could also be that they have lost their sense of purpose. The numbers don’t lie. The demand side of the equation has contracted by roughly 10%, and the expectation for recovery is that demand will continue to increase by about 1% per month. That means demand will return to late-2019/early-2020 levels around mid-2021. This assumes, of course, that the pandemic does not worsen. Financially, as an industry we are in survival mode. There are segments that are strengthening, and ironically, several of my former students and industry colleagues in leadership positions for companies undergoing bankruptcy are remarkably optimistic about the future. I think it comes down to the uncertainty/anxiety syndrome I discussed above (i.e., as a business, once there is clarity the confidence exists to do what must be done). I ask that you keep our colleagues who are struggling in mind. Reach out and let them know you are thinking about them and ask them (sincerely) if they need any help. If they say they do, then do whatever you can. If entry-level colleagues (i.e., students) are in your sphere, don’t tell them how tough it was during your career or give them platitudes. Be honest and direct and guide them toward activities and tasks that keep them sharp and focused. If asked difficult questions such as “Should I leave the industry?”, be kind but candid. My reply is “If you really want to be a petroleum engineer, you will have that opportunity, but you must be prepared for competition.”
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