Oil Prices Research Articles

ANALYSIS OF THE DEPENDENCIES COMMODITY PRICES AND STOCK MARKET INDEXES USING COPULA

Indonesia is rich in natural resources and occupies an important position in the global raw materials market. The country's rich resources such as oil, coal, nickel, and crude palm oil (CPO) have a significant impact on the economic situation. As one of the world's leading producers and exporters of these raw materials, Indonesia's economic fate is closely linked to price fluctuations. This study uses the copula method to model the dependence between stock and commodity returns and calculates the dependence between commodity prices (oil, coal, nickel, CPO) and Indonesian stock market index (IHSG) The data used for this analysis was sourced from Bloomberg.com, covering the period from 29 September 2021 to 29 September 2023. This study investigates the dynamic dependencies between commodity price returns and the Indonesian stock market index. The results show that the correlations between oil prices and the Indonesian stock index, and between CPO prices and the stock index are generally weak. However, there are exceptions to stock index returns, such as their relatively high dependence on coal and nickel. This diverse research provides valuable insight into the complex interdependencies in Indonesia's financial landscape. Understanding dependence between commodity prices and stock indexes is of great value to investors and policymakers, as it is the basis for making informed decisions to navigate the complex global economy.

The economic and fiscal transition costs of global climate mitigation in fossil fuel export dependent economies

Global decarbonization has large implications for trade and financial flows, and with few economies likely to be more affected than those relying heavily on exporting fossil fuels. This study first identifies 40 highly fossil fuel dependent economies and then, through several empirical strategies, examines the potential implications for oil rents, public finances and economic growth from global decarbonization. First, it is estimated that as a group, countries would lose more than 60 percent of oil rents alone, or between (present value adjusted) US$12–14 trillion, for the period 2023–2040 under a global ‘net-zero 2050’ versus a ‘business as usual’ scenario, - a loss equivalent in size to between 120 and 142 percent of GDP. Second, local projections model estimates suggest that there are large and persistent adverse growth and fiscal impacts associated with global decarbonization in emerging market and developing economy oil exporters. Here, a 10 percentage point (pp) decrease in (real) oil price inflation is associated with a decline of 1.58 percent in (real) GDP four periods after the shock; a decrease in annual government revenue (as a percentage of GDP) by between 0.6 and 0.8 pp and; an addition of about 0.5 pp to government debt per year. Finally, the study discusses relative vulnerabilities, and the domestic and international policy options needed to mitigate transition cost. Aside from a handful of primarily high-income countries, most countries have little or no savings to help them cushion an inevitable steep fall in demand for their main export and source of revenue, and more than one third of countries are characterized by either low or medium levels of human development. Whereas several countries are relatively well positioned to successfully mitigate the transition cost provided urgently prioritized domestic reforms, a substantial subgroup of countries will need international assistance to avoid potentially large negative socio-economic consequences.

Fluctuations oil prices in the world and their impact on Indonesian macroeconomics

Abstract Changes in international crude oil prices can significantly impact economic outcomes. This study tested the impact of oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. The data used is annual data from 1990 to 2021 with the specific purpose of solving the current research deficiency about swings in oil prices. study adds five macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors to accomplish this purpose. We use five macroeconomic variables: economic growth, inflation, interest rates, industrial production, and exchange rates. The impact of oil price fluctuations on GDP, inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and industrial production indices in Indonesia is examined within a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Research shows that oil price shocks significantly impact GDP, inflation, and exchange rate. The results also show that oil price shocks hurt two other variables: the interest rate variable and the industrial production index. The findings derived from the analysis of the impulse response function indicate a detrimental effect on the growth of production, while exerting a favourable influence on inflation. However, the impact on industrial production, interest rates, and exchange rates is very modest and characterised by a degree of uncertainty.

Energy security and its determinants in New Zealand

New Zealand relies on imported fossil fuels for about 38% of its primary energy. The country’s energy demand is expected to grow due to population and economic growth, which will put more pressure on the energy system. Besides, resource scarcity, energy price volatility, and environmental challenges have made energy security a major concern for New Zealand and other countries. Given the lack of significant research on the effects of energy security factors in New Zealand, this study aims to shed light on the primary determinants of energy security using the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag method based on time series data from 1978 to 2021. The study found that a long-run link exists between energy security and energy intensity (energy efficiency), renewable energy use, fossil fuel consumption, and global oil prices. Real GDP, renewable energy consumption, and energy security were found to improve energy security, while fossil fuel consumption and world oil prices had a negative impact. The study also revealed a one-way causality from real GDP, fossil fuel consumption, and renewable energy use to energy security. In contrast, the relationship between energy intensity and energy security is bidirectional. Simulation results showed that global crude oil prices have a lower impact on energy security compared to other variables and are most responsive to a 5% shock in fossil fuel consumption, followed by economic growth.

The position of Indonesia’s palm oil in the vegetable oil international market

Abstract The increase in global crude oil prices and awareness of energy sustainability are driving the development of the biofuel industry. Palm oil has high productivity and competitive prices compared to other vegetable oils, encouraging competition among major palm oil exporters and significant vegetable oils. The research examines factors influencing Indonesia’s position in the global vegetable oil competition and assesses how economic shocks impact Indonesian palm oil competitiveness. This study utilized the Almost Ideal Demand System model on secondary data in the time series period of 1990-2022. The research results showed that the increase in global income is the most influential factor in the rise in the market share of Indonesian palm oil. The increase in crude oil prices favored the position of Indonesian palm oil compared to Malaysia. Fluctuations in Malaysian palm oil prices could affect the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil. Malaysia’s palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil are more complementary than Indonesia’s. Indonesia needs to collaborate with significant vegetable oil exporters, to create a palm oil commodity exchange, and to synchronize policies from upstream to downstream to ensure the fulfillment of domestic and export palm oil needs.

Contribution of palm oil and soybean oil to sustainable development goals

Abstract Palm oil is the most consumed vegetable oil in the world, followed by soybean oil. The environmental, social, and economic impacts of vegetable oils have always been a matter of much debate despite their importance in food security and use in a wide array of products. Regardless of the criticism, vegetable oils play a central role in global trade, economic stability, food security, employment, and livelihoods of smallholder farmers globally. Recent disruptions in the worldwide supply caused by weather issues, armed conflict, supply chain disruptions, and labour shortages, which resulted in shortages and higher prices of vegetable oils, have reemphasized their importance. This paper attempts to quantify the contribution of the two most consumed vegetable oils to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) using 12 selected indicators. These selected indicators cover the three pillars of sustainable development, i.e., economic, environmental, and social. These are namely – Protein supply, saturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids, land use, GHG emissions, contribution to GDP, jobs creation, productivity, water footprint, use of pesticides, fertilizers and food supply. These indicators are associated with 9 SDG goals. The study aims to analyze the complex web of interactions and effects of two primary vegetable oil crops on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It highlights significant data deficiencies related to their impacts on specific SDGs, notably 13 and 15 (Climate Action & Life on Land), indicating that both the environmental and social consequences of the vegetable oils sector are still inadequately comprehended.

Desiri Naturals: sustainable agriculture and eco-friendly business

Learning outcomes After completion of the case study, the students will be able to critically analyze the business model of Desiri Naturals, analyze the pricing strategy of Desiri Naturals, examine the importance of experiential marketing in the success of an environment-friendly business, identify the challenges faced by new entrepreneurs and evaluate the sustainability practices of Desiri Naturals. Case overview/synopsis This case study discusses the business model of an environmentally friendly business. The challenges and obstacles faced by entrepreneurs are illustrated in this case. The entrepreneurs’ vision to provide chemical-free food is highlighted and their business operations as a means to fulfill this vision are explained. Desiri used an age-old bull-driven method of oil extraction (Ghana). Challenges in pricing due to the availability of low-priced mass-produced edible oil using the solvent extraction process are presented in this case. The entrepreneurs faced the pricing dilemma at the inception of the business, as oil produced using the natural cold pressing method cost three times the selling pricing of solvent-extracted oil. Innovative methods of experiential marketing such as Ghana tourism are explained in this case. This case study also explains the sustainable and natural farming techniques propagated through its network of farmers. This case study provides insights into the scalability of this model and the scope for employment generation in rural India. The environmentally friendly practices followed by Desiri, such as the use of glass bottles and reusable steel containers for packaging oil are emphasized. Finally, this case presents the marketing and operational challenges faced by entrepreneurs in their quest to expand their operations. Complexity academic level This case study can be used by postgraduate and undergraduate students studying marketing, entrepreneurship, sustainability and operations management courses in commerce and business management streams. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS8: Marketing.

People’s understanding of inflation

This paper studies people’s understanding of inflation—their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs-and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a new, detailed online survey based on the rich existing literature in economics with two experimental components — a conjoint experiment and an information experiment — to examine how well public views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include government actions, such as increased foreign aid and war-related expenditures, alongside rises in production costs attributed to recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic, oil price fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions. Respondents anticipate many negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision-making. Partisan differences emerge distinctly, with Republicans more likely to attribute inflation to government policies and foresee broader negative outcomes, whereas Democrats anticipate greater inequality effects. Inflation is perceived as an unambiguously negative phenomenon without any potential positive economic correlates. Notably, there is a widespread belief that managing inflation can be achieved without significant trade-offs, such as reducing economic activity or increasing unemployment. These perceptions are hard to move experimentally. In terms of policy responses, there is resistance to monetary tightening, consistent with the perceived absence of trade-offs and the belief that it is unnecessary to reduce economic activity to fight inflation. The widespread misconception that inflation rises following increases in interest rates even leads to support for rate cuts to reduce inflation. There is a clear preference for policies that are perceived to have other benefits, such as reducing government debt in progressive ways or increasing corporate taxes, and for support for vulnerable households, despite potential inflationary effects.

Phenomenological Study of the Simirah Information System in Addressing Cooking Oil Scarcity (2021-2023)

Abstract This research explores the government policy regarding the surge in cooking oil prices in 2022, a topic of ongoing debate among stakeholders. The findings reveal that the direct cash assistance (BLT) program’s regulatory impact assessment underscores lower-class economic principles’ volatility and the challenges of simplifying government policies, often perceived as unfeasible. On the other hand, the monitoring of bulk cooking oil (MGCR) producers benefits entrepreneurs and does not directly alleviate poverty. However, the practical implementation of the Simirah application system, a significant tool in this context, presents substantial and urgent hurdles for small-scale vendors. Their limited understanding of the system, coupled with their lack of technological knowledge and insufficient socialisation about the monitoring procedures related to cooking oil distribution, severely impede their effective use of the system. Large traders and distributors of cooking oil, with their relatively good technological knowledge, often step in as support and representatives for these small-scale vendors.

Advanced Machine Learning Techniques for Accurate Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Price

Advanced Machine Learning Techniques for Accurate Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Price

Exploring sustainable cooking oil consumption patterns in Punjab, Pakistan: A comprehensive scientific study

Abstract Palm oil is the world’s most widely traded vegetable oil, with total trade amounting to 77.22 million metric tons of total vegetable oil production in 2023. Palm oil is usually used as the material of cooking oil and food products, biofuel, cosmetics, and other derivates. Pakistan imported $3.36B in Palm Oil, becoming the third largest importer of Palm Oil in the world. However, palm oil has faced deforestation in the last few years. To solve that, the palm oil plantation must be sustainably certified (RSPO), and the impact will increase the palm oil price. Therefore, this research aims to explore Pakistan’s sustainable cooking oil consumption patterns. This research uses purposive sampling from diverse socio-economic backgrounds and geographical locations within Pakistan. The total respondents are 52 respondents from Punjab, Pakistan. The data analysis uses descriptive statistical analysis. The results show that palm oil was the most used cooking oil (68%), followed by sunflower (22%). Over half of the participants (56%) were willing to pay a premium for environmentally friendly cooking oils. Most participants (84%) were familiar with sustainable certification labels like RSPO, and most participants (82%) believed that adopting sustainable palm oil production practices could alleviate environmental and ethical concerns.

Islamic and conventional stocks: Impact of Russia-Ukraine saga on global commodities

Purpose – This study intends to scrutinize the relationship between oil and gold prices on Indonesia’s Islamic stock market before and during the war between Russia and Ukraine, and compare the nature of sharia and conventional stock during the period of study.Methodology – This study uses daily price data of oil price, gold, Islamic index, and LQ45 index. The period spans from 2020 to 2022, which is split into two sub-periods: pre-war and during the war period. Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) was used for data analysis.Findings – This study provided three main findings. First, the Islamic index was found to be more exogenous than conventional stock, implying the safe haven properties of Islamic stock. Second, oil prices have a negative and significant impact on both conventional and Islamic stocks. However, Islamic stocks are less affected by oil price shocks than conventional stocks. Lastly, Gold is a safe haven asset for both Islamic and conventional stocks.Implications – This study is expected to be beneficial for Islamic investors making investment decisions, particularly in the war period, which is still ongoing and more specific for taking advantage of diversification opportunities.Originality – Despite a huge number of studies that investigate the Islamic stock – oil price nexus, this study uncovers the impact of the most recent geopolitical tension during the Russia-Ukraine War.

PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD

Crude oil is one of the non-renewable natural resources that is crucial for countries around the world in driving economic development. However, the availability of crude oil is decreasing over time. The high demand for crude oil results in scarcity which causes price fluctuations. Low oil prices can reduce state revenues, disrupt development programs, and even trigger budget deficits. On the other hand, an increase in crude oil prices can make a positive contribution to state revenues. Crude oil exports become more profitable, which can increase state revenue through royalties and taxes levied on the oil and gas sector. This additional revenue can be used to support infrastructure development, social programs, and investment in key sectors of the economy. High oil prices can also harm the economy. With the many impacts that can be caused by crude oil prices, the government must be able to anticipate and prepare for it. The data used in this study are data on crude oil prices in Indonesia for monthly periods from January 2018 to October 2023 sourced from the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of the Republic of Indonesia. The researcher tried to compare two analysis methods, namely the Fourier series and the ARIMA estimator. The results of this study show that the best method in predicting crude oil prices in Indonesia is the Fourier series estimator with Cos-Sin function which produces RMSE and MAPE values of 7.93 and 8.4%. The prediction results can be used as a reference for the government to anticipate and make programs or policies that are more focused and targeted toward the impacts that can be caused by changes in crude oil prices.

The Impact of Indonesian Crude Oil Demand Prices on the Indonesian Biodiesel Industry

Biodiesel is one of Indonesia's potential export commodities as there is a production surplus that occurs every year from 2006 to 2020. The study used the 2SLS method with a validation and simultaneous equation model. Data processing using SAS/ETS version 9.4. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Indonesia's crude oil demand price on Indonesia's biodiesel industry. The findings indicate that the demand for Indonesian biodiesel is positively impacted by a rise in the global real price of crude oil by 0.11%. This increase is due to both the biodiesel industry's and the local market's need for Indonesian palm oil. The local price of Indonesian biodiesel would rise by 0.49% due to the increase in demand for the fuel. The amount of biodiesel produced in Indonesia will increase by 0.87%, this increase in production is due to increasing domestic demand for Indonesian palm oil, and the volume of biodiesel exported to destination countries will increase by 0.01%. Exports of palm oil may be more impacted by the policy of raising the actual world price of crude oil. This implies that the program may potentially result in a rise in raw material exports. On the other hand, the biodiesel industry and other industries also see a spike in palm oil as a result of the strategy of raising the real world price of crude oil.

THE EFFECTS OF PRICE AND VOLATILITY INDICES OF STRATEGIC COMMODITIES ON STOCK MARKETS: A STUDY ON BRICS ECONOMIES

The effect of gold, oil prices, which are strategic commodities, and gold, oil volatility indices on the BRICS stock exchanges is investigated in this paper. The relationship between the variables is analysed for the short and long-run using the NARDL method. Gold prices have a negative effect on stock markets except Brazil and Russia, in the short and long-run. Changes in oil prices have a negative effect on stock prices in South Africa, which imported oil, and a positive effect in net oil exporters Brazil and Russia, in the short and long-run. It is concluded that positive and negative shocks of strategic commodity volatilities have an asymmetric effect on the stock exchanges of emerging countries in the short and long-run.

ECONOMIC IMPACT ON PALM OIL STOCK RETURNS IN MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE, AND INDONESIA: A NARDL MODEL ANALYSIS

The study examines the relationship between Malaysia’s economic conditions and the returns on palm oil stocks in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag framework was used to analyse the asymmetric impact of Malaysian macroeconomic factors on palm oil stock returns in each country. The findings reveal that the exchange, inflation, and unemployment rates, as well as gold and crude oil prices, strongly influence the long-term returns of palm oil stock. Specifically, unfavourable changes in crude oil prices significantly impact palm oil stock returns. Other key variables also show significant associations with palm oil stock returns, both positively and negatively. In conclusion, investors and stakeholders should take Malaysia’s general economic situation into account when developing investment plans, in addition to fluctuations in the returns on palm oil stocks.

THE ROLE OF EXTENDED VALUE CHAIN ACTIVITIES IN ENHANCING ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED PLANTATION COMPANIES IN MALAYSIA

The palm oil industry in Malaysia has faced issues of lower palm oil price and limited land area, and these issues have created a challenging environment for plantation companies to operate in. Plantation companies are constrained in maximizing their profits. Thus, this paper aims to examine the Economic Value Added (EVA) and the factors that influence the EVA of different value chain activities. The dynamic generalized method of moments (DGMM) estimators were adopted for the analysis and the focus was on the -40 Malaysian plantation companies that were listed in the Bursa Malaysia from 2010 to 2018. The results revealed that both downstream integrated activities, namely oleo-chemicals/biodiesel and refineries activities had a significant influence on the plantation companies’ EVA, with the coefficient value 1.12 and 0.09 respectively. Other factors such as the gross margin, crude palm oil price, and exchange rate also significantly influenced the plantation companies’ EVA. The empirical results which were based on the plantation companies’ EVA were influenced by different value chain activities as expected. The findings show that the downstream integrated activities like refineries, and oleo-chemicals/biodiesel activities have played a significant role in increasing the EVA of plantation companies.

Statistical inference for innovation distribution in ARMA and multi-step-ahead prediction via empirical process

The kernel distribution estimator (KDE) is proposed based on residuals of the innovation distribution in the autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) time series. The deviation between KDE and the innovation distribution function is shown to converge to the Brownian bridge, leading to the construction of a Kolmogorov–Smirnov smooth simultaneous confidence band for the innovation distribution function. Additionally, an empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF) based on prediction residuals is introduced for the multi-step-ahead prediction error distribution function. This empirical process weakly converges to a Gaussian process with a specific covariance function. Furthermore, a quantile estimator is derived from the empirical CDF of prediction residuals, and multi-step-ahead prediction intervals (PIs) for future observations are established using these estimated quantiles. The PIs achieve the nominal prediction level asymptotically for the finite variance ARMA model. Simulation studies and analysis of crude oil price data confirm the validity of the asymptotic theory.

Error Correction Model (ECM) For Macroeconomic Factors And LQ45 Stock Price Index

This research aims to test the causal effects of the inflation rate empirically, the Rupiah exchange rate against the United States Dollar, and world crude oil prices on the LQ45 stock price index. In its testing, this research uses the Error Correction Model (ECM) and uses data every month from 2000 to 2022. The research results show that the inflation rate, exchange rate and world gold prices significantly affect the LQ45 stock price index. Furthermore, the inflation rate and exchange rate have a negative influence on the LQ45 index. Not optimal company growth due to high inflation and exchange rates will affect public market share demand, thereby reducing share prices. Then, world crude oil prices positively influenced the LQ45 index. These results support previous research findings that changes in world crude oil prices positively affect stock market prices in developing countries.

Forecast performance of noncausal autoregressions and the importance of unit root pretesting

AbstractBased on a large simulation study, this paper investigates which strategy to adopt in order to choose the most accurate forecasting model for mixed causal‐noncausal autoregressions (MAR) data generating processes: always differencing (D), never differencing (L), or unit root pretesting (P). Relying on recent econometric developments regarding forecasting and unit root testing in the MAR framework, the main results suggest that from a practitioner's point of view, the P strategy at the 10% level is a good compromise. In fact, it never departs too much from the best model in terms of forecast accuracy, unlike the L (respectively, D) strategy when the DGP becomes very persistent (respectively, less persistent). This approach is illustrated using recent monthly Brent crude oil price data.