Level Of Oil Prices Research Articles

ОТ СЫРЬЕВОЙ К ИННОВАЦИОННОЙ МОДЕЛИ ЭКОНОМИКИ РОССИИ: РОЛЬ НЕФТЕГАЗОВОГО ЭКСПОРТА

The article considers the possibility of switching from a raw material to an innovative model of the Russian economy in the context of reducing its dependence on oil and gas fuel exports. The relevance of the topic is increasing in the context of the transition of the world economy to low-carbon development and large-scale sanctions that Western countries have begun to impose against Russia. They significantly reduce the opportunities for the development of the Russian economy through the export of oil and gas. The reasons and factors preventing the transition to an innovative model of development of the Russian economy after the collapse of the USSR and up to the present are analyzed. The high dependence of the Russian economy on oil and gas is shown. The level of world oil prices has a significant impact on this dependence. The main factor constraining oil pro-duction in Russia is considered. These are resource constraints in the absence of effective domestic oil production technologies. To raise the level of these technologies in the face of sanctions, it is necessary to implement import substitution measures. Unlike oil, the main factor limiting gas pro-duction is demand in foreign markets, which has sharply decreased under the conditions of sanctions. In the process of the global community's transition to a low-carbon economy, ideas about the peaks of supply and demand for certain types of fuels are changing. In a low-carbon economy, it is not the peak of supply that determines energy development, but the peak of demand. The seller’s market is transformed into the buyer’s market. The idea is substantiated that Russia’s transition to an innova-tive business model will give it the opportunity to realize an important competitive advantage –relatively large reserves of fossil fuels, to take a worthy place in the world community.

Examining the effect of the UK oil and gas windfall tax on the economics of new fields in the UKCS province

Recent events in the global political economy have led to record high levels of oil and gas prices. In the UK, this has meant (1) a cost-of-living crisis; and (2) a significant increase in profits earned by companies in the upstream UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) sector. To help fund a cost-of-living support scheme for UK households, the UK Government recently introduced a windfall tax on upstream UKCS operations. There have been concerns however that the new tax would downgrade the value of UKCS assets hence diminishing the global competitiveness of the province. In this paper, I develop an optimisation model that fully incorporates all instruments of the new UK windfall taxation regime. The model is then applied to twelve wholly new UKCS fields currently under review by the UK Government for development approval. I show that whilst the new UK windfall tax reduces field economic value for all fields, the extent of the reduction is unlikely to cause premature abandonment of the fields. Consequently, the tax would not significantly injure the global competitiveness of the province. For the UK Government, the windfall tax would raise about $ 1.97 billion in tax revenues from the new fields in question. Finally, I derive the critical oil price levels that should trigger an accelerated phase out of the windfall tax in order to maintain the global competitiveness of the UKCS province should future oil prices slump.

Oil Market Stabilization: The Performance of OPEC and Its Allies

We examine the influence of OPEC+ on the level and volatility of oil prices. By extending Pierru et al.’s (2018, 2020) modeling framework, we are able to distinguish OPEC’s particular role and impact from that of its Allies—those countries who joined with OPEC at the end of 2016 in the attempt to stabilize the market. In addition to corroborating earlier results regarding the impact of OPEC’s management of spare capacity prior to 2017, we now present an analysis of how the concerted actions by the larger community of OPEC+ members have affected prices, including during the tumultuous period in which the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. We find that OPEC+’s efforts to stabilize the market reduced price volatility by up to one half, both before and during the pandemic. We attribute most of that reduction to OPEC’s own actions whereas the impact of the Allies’ efforts was mostly to support the price level. In that vein, OPEC+’s management of spare capacity barely impacted the average price over the pre-pandemic period, but, by countering the price collapse caused by the pandemic demand shock, lifted the average price by $35.70 from May 2020 through August 2021.

Relationship between crude oil price and production levels—An empirical study of OPEC and non-OPEC states

This work explores the relationship between the price of crude oil and its production through an empirical study on the regions of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (non-OPEC). The crude oil price has recently been fluctuating greatly that it cannot be predicted; this fluctuation causes changes in the prices of raw materials for everyday life, thus affecting the economy worldwide. To better understand the factors that affect the crude oil price, this study gathered monthly oil production by OPEC and non-OPEC members, which are divided into the regions of Europe, America, and Asia according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2015). Data on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, and Dubai oil prices in the period from January 1995 to November 2015 were also gathered and subjected to unbalanced panel random effect regression to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and oil production and to determine whether the oil production by these countries have a significant effect on the fluctuation of crude oil price. This study explored the relationship between production and price, specifically that of crude oil. Hence, it investigated whether and how the changes in monthly crude oil production by OPEC and non-OPEC members in Europe, America, and Asia have affected the changes in three major crude oil prices, namely, WTI, Brent, and Dubai, in the following terms.

A Real Options Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty and Carbon Taxes on the Optimal Timing of Oil Field Decommissioning

We use a real options model to examine the effects of three important sources of oil price uncertainty on the optimal timing of oil field decommissioning. These are (1) the degree of oil price volatility, (2) the level of the long-run equilibrium oil price, and (3) the speed of reversion of oil prices to their long-run equilibrium. We find that lower levels of equilibrium oil prices and speed of reversion to equilibrium prices have the effect of fostering early decommissioning. Oil price volatility however has the opposite effect. Our findings provide valuable insights into how policymakers may identify windows of opportunity for policy interventions leading to (1) an acceleration of the drive towards sustainable energy transition; and/or (2) the maximisation of economic recovery (MER) from oil and gas resources.With regards the former, we show that the imposition of carbon taxes fosters early decommissioning to a significant extent. In the most unfavourable oil price environment and under an aggressive tax regime for example, decommissioning may occur at a very early period in oil field operations, owing to over 45% of oil reserves being uneconomic to produce. The results highlight the effectiveness of carbon taxes as policy lever in jurisdictions that seek accelerated decarbonisation, climate change mitigation and energy transition goals.

Assessment of the Contribution of Scientific and Technological Progress to the Real GDP of Russia

The paper discusses the assessment of the contribution of scientific and technological progress to the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia. The instrument of this assessment is the production function of the national economy. The paper presents two variants of the production function of the Russian economy, which have successfully passed all the diagnostic procedures adopted in econometrics. In the first variant, the index of scientific and technological progress (STP) is included in the set of explanatory factors such as the level of fixed capital, the amount of live labor, the price of oil, the indicator of Russia's default, the Global Financial Crisis and sanctions of Western countries. In the second variant of the production function, there is no NTP index. The scheme of construction of the production function consists of two stages. At the first stage of the scheme, statistical models of the production function are evaluated with mandatory testing of the hypothesis of the cointegration of non-stationary time series of logarithms of Russia's GDP levels, fixed capital and living labor levels and oil price levels. At the second stage of the scheme, the stability of estimates of the production function calculated from different training samples was investigated, and the accuracy of ex-post forecasting was estimated. At the second stage of the production function construction scheme, the model with the NTP index showed higher accuracy of post-factum forecasting. This circumstance, combined with the result of testing the statistical hypothesis about the presence of scientific and technological progress in the Russian economy, made it possible to assess its contribution to real GDP: other things being equal, scientific and technological progress increases the annual real GDP of Russia by about 0,6%.

The Impact of Oil Prices on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Kazakhstan and the Consequences for the Formation of Social Policy

The article analyzes the impact of the dynamics of oil prices on the main macroeconomic indicators of the Kazakhstani economy and the consequences of the formation of national social policy. The article applies different hypotheses about the sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators of the economy of Kazakhstan to fluctuations of oil prices, and in addition, it specifies and evaluates a system of simultaneous equations that allows to test these hypotheses. Scenarios for the reaction of the Kazakhstani economy to exogenous shocks associated with a sharp change in the level of oil prices are considered, and some measures are proposed to reduce the negative consequences of fluctuations in oil prices for the Kazakhstani economy. Finally, the article discusses some of the results of understanding the challenges and realities in the field of social policy, which are generated by the model of economic growth.

The philosophy of stash lives and wins

The paper provides a comparative analysis of the views of domestic liberals and statesmen regarding the expediency of unbridled inflation of sovereign funds in conditions of underemployment of production resources. The historical predecessors of the National Wealth Fund, the leading sources of formation and the functions performed by it are revealed. The current predominantly accumulative strategy for the formation of Russian funds of financial reserves, the intensive implementation of which is expected in the coming years, is subjected to extensive criticism. The large-scale financial losses of Russia with the existing mechanism for the use of sovereign funds both domestically and abroad are revealed. The sharp reluctance of the financial authorities to actively direct them to productive purposes under the pretext of the mythical threat of accelerating inflation is subjected to critical analysis. Considering the NWF as a potentially powerful built-in stabilizer of the domestic economy allows the author to justify the need for urgent serious adjustments to the current budget rule, aiming the algorithm for its application not so much at the level of world oil prices, but rather at the current capacity utilization factor in the country.

Technology Focus: High-Pressure/High-Temperature (March 2022)

What a difference a year can make. Oil and gas prices have reached and stabilized at levels that have not been seen for over half a decade, demonstrating that the adage “low oil prices are the remedy of low oil prices” is still true. Let us now see if we are again at the cusp of a new period of exuberance and if the cyclical nature of oil prices could soon show its grim face once more. A key industry discipline required to delay, or maybe even avoid, another price collapse is the planning and execution of high-pressure/high-temperature (HP/HT) projects. Perhaps the movement of some financial institutions toward considering environmental, social, and governance aspects when deciding to fund oil and gas projects will provide the beneficial longer-term stabilization of the current oil and gas price levels. More than ever, the saying “the easy/cheap oil is over” is true, and that requires a more-stable economic environment than we had in past years to assure the world’s uninterrupted energy and chemical feedstock supply, an important share of which will come from HP/HT reservoirs. For this year, I think we can see where the activity currently is from the available HP/HT related papers of the past year or two. A predominance of papers came from Chinese companies enthusiastically embarking on these challenging projects to secure their domestic energy needs and reporting their technology innovations and learning curves in interesting case studies. I was able to find some geographic diversity by including case studies from the Middle East as well, where good ideas and innovative low-cost approaches have enabled economically feasible project delivery in tough times. Notably absent in the choice of papers were the traditional HP/HT areas of the deep Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. But maybe the more favorable oil and gas prices will spawn some new activity in these areas as well, if the regulatory and fiscal environment also improves. Reading this year’s case studies, some of the more experienced engineers among us will notice that, on some occasions, known challenges have been encountered that, in our experience, had been successfully mitigated in previous projects. This is likely a weakness from the Great Crew Change, where the knowledge preservation and transfer may not always have happened satisfactorily. The cut-throat cost-saving environment of the past few years, combined with the worldwide health crisis leading to curtailed travel and many workshops and conferences being canceled, certainly contributed to this lack of information flow as well. This is why it is so important to engage in SPE through online interest/discussion groups to find the necessary expertise in our pool of members. With this recommendation, I hope you will read the 2022 featured papers with interest and take them as encouragement and a source of good ideas for the years of greatly improved activity levels before us. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. IPTC 20148 - Solid Management Optimization for Offshore Big-Bore HP/HT Sour Gas Well Cleanup by Ardian Nengkoda, Saudi Aramco, et al. SPE 199052 - One of the Deepest Wells Drilled in Bolivia: High Pressure and Temperature in More Than 9 Months of Drilling, No Casing Wear Detected by Russell Mertens, WWT International, et al. SPE 202250 - Next-Generation Ceramic Sand Screens as Openhole Completion Solution in High-Rate Erosive and Corrosive Well Environment at Dvalin HP/HT Field, Offshore Norway by Robert Ritschel, Wintershall DEA, et al.

Assessing the food vs. fuel issue: An agent-based simulation

Energy security and environmental concerns are critical issues for North America. The development of the bio-fuel industry has given grain farmers another crop option. Trends towards renewable fuels could also put fuel production at odds with traditional food agriculture, a situation referred to as the “food vs. fuel” debate. This research models profit maximizing farm crop choices as energy crops become a crop option. We develop a simulation to estimate the oil price level where farmers would switch from the production of grain for food over to bio-energy crops. We also investigate consequences associated with this process on the elevator industry.Using a major crop production region in Canada as a template, we estimate that real annual crude oil prices must remain consistently 30% above the (2008) peak oil price before most farmers in the region would switch over to the production of wheat for biofuel. If government biofuel support falls from current levels, a considerably higher oil price would be needed to entice farmers to switch. As the production of food grain decreases, we also observe that the grain handling industry will gradually “shake out” and likely be characterized by much higher elevator firm concentration than exists currently.

Pegging input prices to output prices—A special price adjustment clause in long-term CO[formula omitted] sales contracts

Oil firms that apply the technique of CO2-enhanced oil recovery inject CO2 into oil reservoirs to increase oil production. The long-term CO2 sales contracts commonly used in the industry often include a special price adjustment clause—the CO2 price is pegged to the oil price faced by the buyer. This is quite different from typical price adjustment clauses in other long-term contracts, which peg the contract price to input costs faced by the supplier. Using a stylized model, we identify plausible conditions under which the pegging practice adopted in the CO2 market is optimal. Numerical simulations calibrated to an active CO2-enhanced oil recovery project suggest that the optimal pegging rate is sensitive to the anticipated oil price level, but not to the oil price variance around that level. The optimal pegging rate is sensitive also to a given oil project’s CO2 “utilization efficiency” – the amount of CO2 required to produce an additional barrel of oil – which is both highly variable across projects and uncertain up front.

Do Crude Oil Price Levels Or Its Volatility Matter In Global Food Commodity Price Change?

This study investigates the effect of crude oil price fluctuations on wheat, sugar, corn, and fertilizers. Results of Markov switching dynamic regression support evidence of two states. State 1, pertains to the low volatility of crude oil prices, and state 2, refers to higher volatility of crude oil prices. At state 1 higher levels of oil prices lead to a decline in food commodity prices, whereas in state 2, higher oil prices cause an increase in food commodity prices. Results of Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH estimates indicate the coefficients of oil price levels are significant and positively associated with the conditional volatility of the four commodity prices, implying that fluctuations in global food commodity prices are not due to oil price volatility but due to the oil price levels attained at the extreme points.

Forecasting interval-valued crude oil prices using asymmetric interval models

Practitioners and policy makers rely on accurate crude oil forecasting to avoid price risks and grasp investment opportunities, but the core of existing predictive models for such prices is based on point-valued inputs and outputs, which may suffer from informational loss of volatility. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a modified threshold autoregressive interval-valued models with interval-valued factors (MTARIX), as extended by Sun et al. [Threshold autoregressive models for interval-valued time series. J. Econom., 2018, 206, 414–446], to analyze and forecast interval-valued crude oil prices. In contrast to point-valued data methods, MTARIX models simultaneously capture nonlinear features in price trend and volatility, and this informational gain can produce more accurate forecasts. Several interval-valued factors and point-valued threshold variables are analyzed, including supply and demand, speculation, stock market, monetary market, technical factor, and search query data. Empirical results suggest that MTARIX models with appropriate threshold variables outperform other competing forecast models (ACIX, CR-SETARX, ARX, and VARX). The findings indicate that oil price range information is more valuable than oil price level information in forecasting crude oil prices.

The effect of climate change to palm oil price dynamics: a supply and demand model

The climate change may lead to anomaly in hydrological cycle. Climatic disturbance in precipitation or rainfall rate will turn to impact oil palm production. The low precipitation due to erratic rainfall will affect sex differentiation, abort female inflorescence, and subsequently decrease oil palm yield. On a larger scale, the peculiar yield trend will fluctuate oil palm supply and thus impact the crude palm oil (CPO) price. This study was aimed to assess the impact of climate change on palm oil price dynamics and to anticipate its adverse effect faced by the vulnerable smallholder in Indonesia. The system of equations was estimated by employing simultaneous equation model. The simulations were set to generate the forecasts from 2018 to 2050 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. A time series data ranging from 1980 to 2018 of CPO yield, oil palm mature areas, stock changes, export, as well as monthly rainfall rate were taken into account. The simulation revealed that the climate change in terms of fluctuating rainfall would cause unfavourable palm oil price level that eventually would exacerbate smallholder welfare.

Dynamics of Crude Oil Price Change and Global Food Commodity Prices

Purpose: This study investigates the effect of crude oil price fluctuations (price change as well as volatility) on wheat, sugar, corn, and fertilizers price changes. 
 Methods: The study employs Markov switching dynamic regression, Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC), and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Hetrosekadicity (GARCH) on monthly data covering the period from January 1988 to April 2018.
 Results: The findings of the research support evidence of two states. State 1, pertains to the low volatility of crude oil price, and state 2 belong to the case of the high volatility of crude oil prices. Our results indicated that at state 1, an increase in crude oil prices leads to a decline in food commodity prices, while in state 2, an increase in crude oil price levels causes an increase in food commodity prices. Results of Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH estimates indicate the coefficients of oil price levels are significant and positively associated with the conditional volatility of the four commodity prices.
 Implications: The findings of the research imply that volatility in global food commodity prices is not due to oil price volatility but due to the oil price levels attained at extreme points.
 Originality: The paper investigates the impact of different volatility levels of crude oil prices on global food commodity prices.

Analysis of Crude Oil Price and Household Income in the State of Louisiana

A large part of determining gas price rests on the price paid for crude oil. There are several variables that can affect gas prices such as global and domestic demand and production supply, unpredictability in the Middle East, fluctuating weak United States dollar value, natural disasters, and household income. Some explanations are provided about some of the previously mentioned variables, but the focus of analysis is Louisiana crude oil price as it relates to household income. The method that was used in this current research is the regression model and the estimated linear regression equation least square method. A scatter plot is provided to display the relationship between variables. A chart that shows historical data of crude oil prices and a correlation of events as they relate to the rise or fall of oil price level is also provided. The multivariate correlation matrix shows that some variables are significant at p- value of 0.05. The largest values indicated that the crude oil price per barrel was strongly positive (r = 0.9530) linked with Louisiana gas price while Louisiana median household income (r = 0.0898), unemployment rate in Louisiana (r = 0.3398). This paper evaluates crude oil price as a dependent variable and how it relates to major independent variables using a general linear regression. The result shows that a high unemployment rate in Louisiana lowers the Louisiana gas price and therefore inhibits oil and gas market. it is highly recommended that the U.S. could continue to increase drilling activities in the state of Louisiana all it wants but it is hard to expect greater domestic production to move gas prices by more than two percentage points in the next few years.

Testing the pecking order theory of capital structure in an Islamic legal system: the case of Saudi Arabia

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine whether the basic premises according to the pecking order theory (POT) provide an explanation for the capital structure mix of firms operating under Islamic principles.Design/methodology/approachPooled ordinary least squares, fixed and random effects regressions were performed to test the POT applying data from a sample of 66 Islamic-compliant firms listed on Saudi Stock Market over the period 2006–2016.FindingsThe results show that sale-based instruments (Murabahah, Ijara) track the financial deficit quite closely followed by equity financing and as a last alternative to finance deficit, Islamic-compliant firms issue Sukuk. In the crisis period, these firms seem more reliant on equity, then on sale-based instruments and on Sukuk as last option. The study findings also indicate that the cumulative financing deficit does not wipe out the effects of conventional variables, although it is empirically significant. This provides no support for the POT attempts by Saudi Islamic-compliant firmsResearch limitations/implicationsThis research contributes to the theory of capital structure in re-validating the findings of a previous theoretical and empirical study. It helps understand the capital structure of Islamic-compliant firms in comparison with conventional firms. It highlights some areas where further research on topics related to capital structure of Islamic-compliant firms is needed. The failure of the POT to explain Saudi firms’ financing choices strongly pushed researchers to test the market timing theory for the Saudi Stock Market. Further research studies could re-examine the trade-off theory in the absence of interest tax shield as in an Islamic economy.Practical implicationsFrom a managerial perspective, this research can serve firm executive managers in their financing decisions to add value to the companies. Furthermore, policymakers, bankers and standard-setting organizations should undertake more collective work to simplify the process of issuing Islamic financial instruments including Sukuk. Moreover, the Saudi Government has to encourage the private sector to be more innovative in developing products and services that are in line with Sharia principles. Finally, to attract investors, the Capital Market Authority has to encourage transaction, efficiency and liquidity of Islamic financial instruments.Originality/valueThe proposed study presents several originalities. First, it explores the implications of relevant Islamic principles on financing preferences of Saudi firms. Second, the present study enables us to investigate what the sudden abundance of liquidity, generated by the record levels of oil prices, implied for the firms’ financing behavior. Finally, it provides further evidence on the impact of financial crisis on the firms’ capital structure choice in a period of considerable slowdown in the world.

Analysis of the Influence of the Price of Raw Oil and Natural Gas on the Prices of Indices and Shares of the Turkish Stock Exchange

This article is a review on the impact of prices and their dependence on the cost of oil and natural gas on the world stock markets. The main studies and results achieved in the field of the impact of prices on both the stock index and industrial stocks and the dependence on the level of oil prices are presented. The paper presents an econometric study on the choice of offers on the securities market that allows us to identify the main specifics of changes in prices for the stock index and industrial shares in the daily period from 13. 05. 2012 to 01. 12. 2019. The article uses methods for estimating the impact of the price of natural gas and WTI crude oil using the Gretl statistical program, taking into account the selection of the main correlation features of the price matrix. Of the 13 proposed research models, only one model showed its statistical insignificance. A paired linear model of the CocaCola share price dependence and its dependence on NGFO prices was presented and analyzed in detail. Based on the results of econometric modeling, linear regression models were constructed for the dependence of stock prices on the NGFO and WTISPOT prices. The Gretl environment allows you to evaluate the situation in the econometric environment and make a forecast based on the obtained models of the dependence of stock prices and make appropriate conclusions.

What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, which manifests mainly in airstrikes, has attracted widespread controversy in media and politics as well as a large body of (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background and ways to escape it. Complementary to these efforts and connecting to the literature on oil and conflict, this study provides unique quantitative insights into what drives the extent of military interaction. We use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the interactions between Saudi airstrikes in Yemen, gains of the Houthi movement on Yemeni ground, their attacks on Saudi Arabian soil, and crude oil prices. Our approach builds on high-resolution data from the Yemen Data Project and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Our results show not only that the airstrike campaign has been factually impotent to repulse the Houthi movement but also that the movement’s expansion in Yemen has not driven Saudi airstrikes. These findings draw both suitability and justification of the intervention further into question. Moreover, although the data fail to show that oil price levels drive the developments, our model identifies oil price volatility as a determinant for the airstrikes. However, the intervention has, in turn, no significant effect on oil markets. Besides adding to the academic discourse on oil and conflict, our results have implications for energy and climate policy: a coordinated transition might not deteriorate regional security, while uncertainty and fluctuations can increase conflict potential.

Oil price fluctuations and economic growth: the case of MENA countries

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth.Design/methodology/approachAs the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution.FindingsThe paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth.Originality/valueThe study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.