Oil Price Crisis Research Articles

Redefining Energy in the Post-Pandemic Era

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused shock waves across the planet in various realms, with stark shifts occurring in terms of global investment flow, national health systems, international trade, and society in general. These consequences may make a change in terms of the legal order of states and international institutions obligatory. For instance, the discussion of the roles of international organizations, in particular, the World Health Organization (WHO) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), indicate possible paradigm shifts in the post-pandemic era. Besides these changes, the energy sector itself has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The oil price crises caused by a drop in demand and investment causes one to ponder a possible paradigm shift in sector and future of energy transition. In this regard, the legal foundations of the energy sector need to be reconsidered. In particular, the definition of the framework of energy under legal regimes is an essential element in the post-pandemic era. To this end, this paper offers a revision of the meaning of energy under international law.

Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Cycles in U.S.

We analyze monthly time series of 57 US macroeconomic indicators (18 leading, 30 coincident, and 9 lagging) and 5 other trade/money indexes. Using novel methods, we confirm statistically significant co-movements among these time series and identify noteworthy economic events. The methods we use are Complex Hilbert Principal Component Analysis (CHPCA) and Rotational Random Shuffling (RRS). We obtain significant complex correlations among the US economic indicators with leads/lags. We then use the Hodge decomposition to obtain the hierarchical order of each time series. The Hodge potential allows us to better understand the lead/lag relationships. Using both CHPCA and Hodge decomposition approaches, we obtain a new lead/lag order of the macroeconomic indicators and perform clustering analysis for positively serially correlated positive and negative changes of the analyzed indicators. We identify collective negative co-movements around the Dot.com bubble in 2001 as well as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in October 2008. We also identify important events such as the Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 and the Oil Price Crisis in July 2008. Additionally, we demonstrate that some coincident and lagging indicators actually show leading indicator characteristics. This suggests that there is a room for existing indicators to be improved.

Russian geopolitical objectives in the current oil price crisis, and implications for Canada

Following the end of unsuccessful negotiations in March 2020 at OPEC headquarters in Vienna regarding oil production cuts, in the early March in Vienna (headquarters of OPEC), Russia and Saudi Arabia de-facto launched a prise war that resulted in a significant drop in oil prices (just as the COVID pandemic caused a concomitant drop in demand for oil), which in turn led to earthquake on the global oil market. As a result, prices of oil that plays an essential role for economies of both countries have plummeted to record lows no seen in two decades. While suffering economic losses, both countries, nevertheless, maintain an assertive posture and seem willing to pursue this policy even further. This paper examines the geopolitical logic of the Russian side – a country that has been placed under western economic sanctions since 2014 as a result of its illegal annexation of Crimea and destabilizing steps via proxy forces in the Southeastern Ukraine – and consequences thereof, particularly for Canada, as the price of Western Canada Select reached historic lows amidst a COVID-19 induced economic contraction.

A History of Aggregate Demand and Supply Shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016

While economic theory has been applied to numerous topics in economic history, there are very few attempts to interpret major macroeconomic shocks from the perspective of standard Keynesian theory. This paper presents a history of aggregate demand and supply shocks spanning 1900 - 2016 for the United Kingdom, whose signs are identified using economic theory. We utilise sign restrictions derived from an AD-AS framework consistent with the workhorse New Keynesian model, and demonstrate how they can be used to identify the signs of structural shocks. The existence of 33 large shocks is inferred from estimated vector autoregressions, comprising 21 demand shocks and 12 supply shocks. We find that aggregate supply shocks were important in the late 1920s and early 1970s, which we attribute to changes in the bargaining power of labour. We also identify positive aggregate demand shocks in the mid-1970s, which we attribute to fiscal policy and suggest that these shocks will have exacerbated the inflationary effects of the 1973 oil price crisis, while mitigating its unemployment effects.

Are the interdependence characteristics of the US and Canadian energy equity sectors nonlinear and asymmetric?

Nonlinear, symmetric, and asymmetric dependence characteristics in energy equity sectors matter to portfolio investors and risk managers because of the risks and diversification opportunities they entail. Specifically, nonlinear dependence dynamics between assets are harder to predict, monitor, and manage, and can make investment positions go wrong unexpectedly. In this paper, we investigate whether the dependence dynamics of US and Canadian large-capitalized energy equity portfolios are nonlinear, symmetric, or asymmetric. We draw our results by implementing a robust copula approach based on time-varying parameter copulas and vine copula methods. Both time varying parameter and vine-copula methods indicate that the Canadian energy sector portfolio is driven by nonlinear negative tail asymmetric dependence during the global financial crisis and when the full sample period is employed. On the other hand, it displays nonlinear symmetric dependence during the oil price crisis, implying the need for close monitoring and rebalancing and a more continuous assessment of long investment positions. The US energy sector portfolio is driven by positive tail asymmetric dependence, and by symmetric dependence dynamics during crisis and non-crisis periods.

OIL PRICE AND SLUMPS EFFECTS ON PERSONAL CONSUMPTION IN SAUDI ARABIA

Oil price movements and its macroeconomic effect may have deep effects on the oil exporting economy like Saudi Arabia in terms of personal consumption and welfare derived from the consumption. This present research targets to isolate the relationship between oil price and personal consumption per capita using a period 1970-2016 and applying cointegration technique. We find that all variables are the first different stationary and long and short run relationships are also corroborated. We find the positive relationship between oil price and personal consumption per capita in both long and short runs which suggest that oil price has direct effect on the consumption of the Kingdom in case of any movement. Moreover, we find that the oil price crises have insignificant effects on the personal consumption per capita hence the economy's consumption is supported by non-oil sector in the slump periods. Based on findings, we suggest the diversification policy to the Saudi economy for a smooth consumption pattern in the long run.Keywords: Personal consumption per capita, Oil price, Oil price slumps, cointegration. JEL Classifications: E21; Q21; H12DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7763

Creditworthiness of North American Oil Companies and Minsky Financing Categories: Assessment of Shifts Due to the 2014-2016 Oil Price Shock

Our study provides a unique and comprehensive analysis of oil and gas companies' performance over the latest oil price crisis of 2014-2016. The oil price declined under the pressure of global oil oversupply instigated by OPEC under the strategic leadership of Saudi Arabia, in an effort to retain market share by diminishing the production growth of shale oil and oil from oil sands in North America. The financial performance of 45 North American oil companies was assessed over the 2014-2016 period of decreased oil prices, distinguishing six peer groups based on market capitalization, of which 11 representative companies were selected for further in-depth analysis. For each selected company, a forensic financial analysis was performed on the three principal accounts of corporate financial performance: profit-loss account, cash flow account and balance sheet. Financial accounts were consolidated in annualized graphs for 2010-2015. Next, the historic production output and operational income from the existing assets (2010-2015) were projected forward to stress test future liquidity positions (2016-2020). These projections incorporated known maturation dates of corporate debt and any announced divestments and/or acquisitions. The majority of the companies are classified in Minsky's speculative financing category, which is riskier than hedge financing and less risky than Ponzi financing. The oil price collapse pushed numerous companies into Ponzi financing and led to a record number of bankruptcies. Lessons learned and recommendations are formulated for company management, shareholders and lenders, based on the corporate financial performance of the analyzed companies during the decade (2010-20120) spanning the 2014-2016 oil price shock.

Minimum-Variance Hedging Oil Price Risk for US Energy ETF Investors: Out-of-Sample Investigation

Oil price experienced crashes during the period of the 2008 global financial crisis and the recent period of oil price crisis in 2014. Hedging oil price risk becomes more important for energy industry investors. In this paper, we investigate the out-of-sample dynamic hedging performance by using the oil futures based on 11 methods for estimating the minimum-variance optimal hedge ratio for 5 US energy ETFs. Except variance, we also study the difference in average returns and utilities between the unhedged strategy and the hedged strategy by employing statistical tests. Finally, we study explore the performance of the hedged strategy in terms of cumulative return and variance under different oil market regimes.

Do Nonfinancial Firms Use Financial Assets to Risk-Shift? Evidence from the 2014 Oil Price Crisis

Using hand-collected data on financial asset portfolios, we investigate corporate risk-taking through risky financial investments. We find that distressed firms with large short-term liabilities substantially increase their investments in risky financial assets, including corporate debt, equity, and mortgage-backed securities. The effects are stronger when collateral assets are lower. Overall, we provide new evidence that distressed firms take risk using financial assets camouflaged as cash reserves, which, compared to real assets, are less visible, unrestricted by debt covenants, and carry lower transaction costs and accelerated payoffs. The results highlight the role of debt maturity and collateral in risk-taking at distressed firms.

Exploring drivers of sectoral electricity demand in Indonesia

ABSTRACTThis study estimates the influence of income, electricity price, oil price, urbanization, and Asian economic crisis to electricity demands in residential, industrial, and commercial sectors of Indonesia using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. Our estimations reveal that electricity demands in all sectors during the period of 1969–2015 are significantly affected by income and urbanization in which the demands in all sectors are elastic to urbanization but inelastic to income. On the other hand, electricity price only significantly affects residential electricity demand while oil price does not have significant influence on electricity demands in all sectors. The electricity demands in residential and commercial sectors are also significantly inelastic to the number of electricity customers while Asian economic crisis in 1998 only affects industrial electricity demand. These findings are like most previous studies for other country cases but not to previous Indonesian studies that had suffered from the cointegration issues.

NEW INDIA INITIATIVE: ADVANCEMENT OF INDIA’S LOOK WEST POLICY

During the Cold War era, after the independence of India, India went ahead with a two-point program irst, India politically backed Arab; Second amplified the relations with their leaders who committed with secularism and socialism. India backed the NAM movement for a peaceful resolution between Arab and Isreal clash. Later on, after the Nasser‟s idea of Pan-Arabism failed and it provided cushion for religious extremism in the West Asian region. India realised the significance of the Islamic world. Due to the oil-based relationship between India and Iraq, India wanted to support Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war in 1980. Somehow India adopted the keep-distance approach with Israel during that period. So, during Cold War India espoused heedful approach. After the end of the Cold War, the balance was started to shift from normative flux to realistic flux, and India acknowledged the importance of remittance from its Indian diaspora in the Gulf. Indian commenced providing consultancy in advanced fields like the management, information technology and pharmaceutical sectors rather than old unskilled labour engagement. In 2005 India‟s Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh asserted the West Asia as their xtended neighbourhood. He sought an advanced economic relationship with the West Asain region. After 2014, With a new government at the centre, India extends the previous government Look West Policy and ventured to add more substantial dimensions to the former one. Newly elected Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi acknowledged the importance of engagement with West Asia with more considerable interest. At one hand in India de hyphenated its foreign policy from Israel and Palestine never-ending geopolitical flux, Government showcased a sheer amount of courage by establishing an open relationship with Israel. If one could make an attempt to understand this step through a glass of national interest, it could be considered as a significant step towards India strategic autonomy, while in another hand India grabbed the opportunity to engage more with West Asian countries especially after the turmoil of Shale revolution and oil price crisis. Additionally, he recognised the importance of Indian diaspora as a strategic tool. The Indian policymakers have striven for a delicate balance between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel while supporting Palestinians. Such strategic autonomy has provided India with ample space to exercise in the region with ease. Indian policymakers assert that India‟s interests in the Gulf Cooperation

Recent Advances in Metabolic Engineering of Yarrowia lipolytica for Lipid Overproduction

The non‐conventional yeast Yarrowia lipolytica have been receiving growing attention due to its excellent lipid accumulation capacity. Microbial lipid have attracted widespread interest due to their broad applications as dietary supplements, cosmetic additives, oleochemicals, and renewable starting materials for the production of fossil fuel. With the development of whole‐genome sequencing, many effective genetic tools, including transformation systems, promoter systems, genomic integration and genome editing tools, have been applied in Y. lipolytica to enhance the overproduction of lipid. It can be genetically engineered for high lipid production via the upregulation of synthetic precursor and lipid synthesis pathways, the downregulation or disruption of competing pathways such as β‐oxidation, and elimination of inhibitory factors. In this review, the lipid metabolism, available genetic tools, and recent advances in metabolic engineering of Y. lipolytica for the overproduction of lipid and lipid‐derived chemicals is summarized. Future prospects of lipid biosynthesis in Y. lipolytica are discussed in light of the current progress, challenges, and trends in this field. Guidelines for future studies are also proposed.Practical Applications: General concerns about climate change, oil price crisis, and the increasing study for renewable energy are driving bio‐lipid as promising alternatives to fossil fuel. Over the past few decades, microbial lipid have been widely applied in dietary supplements, cosmetic additives, oleochemicals, and renewable starting materials for the production of fossil fuel. The non‐conventional yeast Yarrowia lipolytica have become an attractive metabolic engineering host for the production of microbial lipids due to its ability to synthesize them in large quantities. This review illuminates the lipid biosynthesis and degradation of Y. lipolytica, and summarizes the metabolic engineering efforts which have targeted a variety of biosynthetic biosynthetic pathway to efficiently convert carbon source to lipid in oleaginous Y. lipolytica.Schematic diagram of lipid and triacylglyceride biosynthesis, including the native and heterologous biosynthesis pathways of fatty acids in Y. lipolytica.

The impact of oil price crisis on financial performance of commercial banks in Bahrain

Oil export is the major source of revenue for the countries in the Middle East. Their economies are sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. The present study examines the impact of oil crisis on the performance of selected banks of Kingdom of Bahrain using profitability, efficiency, capital adequacy and liquidity ratios in the pre-crisis and crisis periods. The study reveals that there is no significant difference in the performance of banks in the pre-crisis and crisis period. The results indicate that there is a significant difference in the performance of conventional banks and Islamic banks in the pre-crisis period. However, there is no significant difference in the performance of conventional banks and Islamic banks during the crisis period.

Oil and gas business in changing times

Abstract The top 5 oil majors (British Petroleum, ExxonMobil, Total, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell) are analyzed in terms of investments, earnings and financial & operational performance along the entire business value chain, for a period of 5 years. One of the key objectives is to understand how the Upstream and Downstream segments may play different roles in the definition of a winning corporate strategy, considering how they may reveal very different strengths and weaknesses during crude oil price crises. When the crude oil price goes down, the upstream sector is running big cost cutting measures, in order to reduce expenditures and keep acceptable gross margins per barrel of oil equivalent. On the other hand, the downstream segment receives cheaper raw material without a significant decrease in the final price of the oil products. Thus, how can oil companies leverage this flexibility in order to pass successfully through periods of crude oil price slides, and even take advantage of those? The paper aims to analyze the correlation between oil price and oil volume produced on one hand, and investments and earnings, split by business segments, on the other hand. The variation of investment and earnings is hence compared to crude oil price fluctuations for a clearer picture of the business profitability per segment during the peak and bottom periods of the oil market. Upstream and Downstream segments are also benchmarked against each other to understand the role that each of them is playing in the industry. The results are expected to provide some trend lines to understand how much the cost cutting measures are impacting the overall business, as well as to appreciate whether the reduction in the oil production, which in theory should be followed by a rise in prices, is indeed in the best interest of the oil majors. Going further into analysis, the paper is trying to define an optimum production interval, that will maximize profits along the entire value chain (upstream and downstream) of the oil business, defined by both the production volume of crude oil (replacement cost per barrel in accordance with volume), as well as the price per barrel of oil equivalent. The analysis takes into account official sources exclusively, i.e. oil companies’ websites, corporate crude oil production reports, annual financial reports and investors’ analyses.

Optimum ratio of compressed biomethane gas as dual fuel in turbocharged common rail diesel engine

During the world faced a crude oil price crisis, the selling price of all fuel types increased considerably. Commercial carriers that use vehicles installed with the turbocharged common rail diesel engine (TCRD Engine) attempted to find methods to reduce the fuel cost. One of the many alternative methods was the use of compressed biomethane gas (CBG) together with diesel, which was called as the dual fuel. In general, the amount of CBG supplied into the engine is mostly adjusted to be in the highest ratio without taking care of the influences on the engine and the environment. In order to introduce a guideline to adjust the CBG dual fuel correctly, this study has been conducted with objectives as follows: (i) to study the optimum ratio of CBG on unmodified TCRD engine, (ii) to describe the effect of critical factors on the optimum duration of CBG injection, and (iii) to analyze the fuel cost and the economical break-even point. The test was conducted on a 2.5L, four-cylinder, four-stroke, TCRD Engine in which the crankshaft end was coupled to the hydraulic dynamometer for measuring and controlling the torque to be constant as the reference torques obtained from the use of the pure diesel. The study found that the trend of variation in the optimum ratio of CBG significantly depended on the trend of the optimum duration of CBG injection, that is, increasing in low engine speed ranges, being constant at relatively high values during medium to high engine speeds, and, finally, decreasing to reach the lowest at the highest engine speed that the CBG can be supplied safely. The critical factors to define the optimum ratio of CBG consisted of smoke opacity in exhaust gas, exhaust gas temperature, and engine knock, which dominated differently for each of the different values of engine speed and torque. The analysis on fuel consumption and fuel cost showed that although the brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC) of the CBG and diesel dual fuel was higher than that of diesel, the fuel cost of the dual fuel was less than that of diesel because of the lower price of the CBG. This study also presented that CBG could be safely used as a dual fuel in unmodified TCRD engines if suitable critical factors to limit the optimum ratio of CBG were defined. Moreover, CBG was confirmed as suitable for use as the dual fuel with diesel without modification of the engine except the installation on the gas supply system. Therefore, these results can be followed to promote a decrease in the overall cost in the use of the TCRD engine in commercial transportation with high effectiveness and safety to the engine and the environment.

Transforming ocean bottom seismic technology into an exploration tool

It has been one of the enduring features of the oil and gas E&P industry that ocean bottom seismic (OBS) survey technology has yet to fulfil its potential. Ten years ago a similar observation was made (Berg, 2007). It was suggested then that towed-streamer surveys dominated the offshore survey market because the technology was wellestablished and inexpensive compared to ocean bottom techniques. The message was that an ocean bottom node (OBN) seismic acquisition could be ‘well worth the additional expense’. This was perhaps an unfortunate turn of phrase reinforcing an industry perception that seabed seismic was indeed a costly operation. In the intervening period, according to our best estimate, OBS surveys have in fact been slowly eroding the previous dollar value market share held by towed streamers, rising from around 4% in 2006 to approximately 15% in 2015 (see Table 1). It is also clear that the application of ocean bottom node systems rather than ocean bottom cable (OBC) is becoming the technology of choice for oil companies. More than 50% of OBS surveys now use some form of seabed node receivers (see Table 2). These have been developed over the years by a number of suppliers. Those OBC surveys that are being carried out are largely dependent on legacy systems with no similar record of recent innovation. We contend in this article that the technical case for node-based seabed seismic has been made in theory (See Ronen et al., 2009) and, in practice, judging by the increasing number of OBN surveys worldwide. It is also the case that in the current oil price crisis that oil companies for the foreseeable future are likely to concentrate their investment dollars on optimizing output from existing reservoirs in order to replenish reserves. This implies an increased role for OBS if the technology is offered at the right price point. We also believe that in a number of future exploration scenarios, e.g., complex geological settings in known oil provinces, OBN can be a more than viable alternative to towed-streamer solutions.

An economic analysis of sustainability of a potential GCC economic and monetary union during 2005-2014

Purpose – Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was set up in 1981 between Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait for strengthening cooperation and economic development in the region. The GCC has made strides towards economic consolidation by forming a customs union and a common market. The long-term vision is to create an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with a single currency. Progress towards the EMU has been slow and the recent oil price plunge has led to concerns regarding sustainable growth of member countries due to their significant dependence on oil and lack of diversification. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the scope of an EMU in the GCC against the backdrop of current oil crisis and examine sustainability of such a union. The paper studies convergence criteria similar to the ones followed by the accession countries of the European EMU in the 1990s preceding the introduction of the single currency Euro. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws its practical approach from the experience of the European Monetary Union, though the original idea of the single currency in Optimum Currency Areas was conceived by Mundell (1961). The present paper analyses macroeconomic time-series variables (e.g. GDP, budget deficits, debt, growth rates, inflation rates, exchange rates) for GCC during the period 2005-2014. Data has been sourced from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), The World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) databases to study the convergence criteria adopted by the EMU countries for the introduction of the Euro. Findings – The paper concludes that GCC economies are similar in terms of their structural and economic fundamentals. Most elements of the convergence criteria that were followed by the accession countries in Europe are fulfilled by the GCC member states, particularly during 2011-2014. The GCC states look similar in terms of sustainable growth, price stability and exchange rate stability – three aspects of convergence met by the European Union states. However, heavy dependence on oil and lack of diversification from oil and hydrocarbon-related products in the gross domestic product (GDP) composition of GCC states pose severe risks to the potential union. Fiscal vulnerabilities of these economies to oil price shocks, such as the current oil price crisis, create concerns for such a union during oil price lows. Widely divergent fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratios and rising debt-to-GDP ratios during periods of low oil prices imply the lack of sound and unsustainable public finances for some of the GCC states. The divergence has stemmed from widely different break-even oil prices for government budgets within the GCC and also due to varying degrees of oil dependencies between the member states. The scope of a successful and more sustainable EMU can be further explored once the GCC economics have achieved adequate diversity from oil. Originality/value – The study is useful to policy makers, central banks, businesses and researchers since it highlights the EMU as a feasible option for the GCC states. The sustainability of the EMU is contingent on diversification of these economies in the future from oil and oil-related products. The study can be utilized by policy makers as a strategy to further restructure GCC economies towards greater resilience and integration prior to accession to the GCC EMU.

شیكردنەوەی قەیرانی نرخی نەوتی ئۆپیك لە نێوان ساڵانی (1961-2019)

ملخص(تذبذب اسعار نفط ئوبك خلال فترة ممتدة بين السنوات 1961 – 2019 )منذ اكتشاف النفط بشكل تجاري وحتى وقتنا الحاظر، لم يفقد النفط اهميته الاقتصادية على المستوى الدولي بشكل خاص والمستوى العالمي بشكل عام، وذلك لانالنفط له علاقة وطيدة باقتصاد الدول المستهلكة والمنتجة اضافة الى عدم قدرة العالم على ايجاد مصدر من مصادر الطاقة سواء المتجددة والغير المتجددة ليحل محل النفط .ونظرا لاهميته الكبيرة في الاقتصاد العالمي الذي جعل من سوق النفط غير مقيد او ملزم بقواعد السوق ولكنها متاثرة بمجموعة عوامل سياسية وستراتيجية متناقضة بين الدول الصناعية الكبيرة والمستهلكة والدول المتخلفة والمنتجة ، ولاشك فية ان هذا العامل كان المؤثر الرئيسي في اسعار النفط. وعليه راينا من الاجدر التطرق الى هذا الموضوع من خلال البحث الموسوم ب(تذبذب اسعار نفط ئوثك خلال فترة ممتدة بين السنوات 1961 – 2019 ) بهدف معرفة وتيرة اسعار النفط خلال الفترة المذكورة ولاجل تحقيق ذلك لابد من التحدث عن اسلوب تحديد سعر النفط مع تسليط الضوء على اسعاره قبل تاسيس منظمة ئوبيك ، ومن خلالالفترة الزمنية قسمنا الدراسة الى عدة مراحل زمنية مع تحليل سعر النفط خلال كل مرحلة ، وفي ختام توصل البحث الى مجموعة من الاستنتاجات التي قد تفيد الباحثين في تحديد تذبذب اسعار النفط خلال الفترة الزمنية المحددة .
 پوختەی لێكۆڵینەوەله‌ سه‌رده‌می دۆزینه‌وه‌ی نەوەت به‌ شێوه‌یه‌کی بازرگانیانه تاکوو ئه‌مڕۆشی له‌ گه‌ڵدابێت نه‌وت گرنگی ئابوری له‌ سه‌ر ئاستی جیهانی و هه‌رێمی دا هه‌یه‌ و هه‌روه‌ها په‌یوه‌نده‌کی به‌تینی به‌ ئابوری ده‌وڵه‌تانی به‌کاربه‌ر و به‌رهه‌مهێنه‌ر‌ هه‌یه و تا ئێستاش هیچ سه‌رچاوه‌یه‌کی وزه‌ جا نوێ بووه‌وه‌ بن یا خود نوێ نه‌بووه‌وه‌ نه‌یانتوانیوه‌ کێبڕکێی بکه‌ن.ئه‌و گرنگیه‌ گه‌وره‌یه‌ی که‌وا نه‌وت له ابوری جیهانی دا هه‌یه‌تی وایکردوه‌ که‌ بازاڕی نه‌وت ئازاد نه‌بێت و ته‌نها وابه‌سته‌ی یاساکانی بازاڕ نه‌بێت به‌ڵکو کاریگه‌ره‌ به‌ کۆمه‌ڵه‌ فاکته‌رێکی سیاسی و ستراتیژی دژ به‌یه‌ک له‌ نێوان ده‌وڵه‌تانی پیشه‌سازی گه‌وره‌ی به‌کاربه‌ری نه‌وت و هه‌روه‌ها ده‌وڵه‌تانی دواکه‌وتووی به‌رهه‌مهێنه‌ری که‌ بێگومان ئه‌مه‌ کاری کردوه‌ته‌ سه‌ر نرخی نه‌وت.ئه‌م توێژینه‌وه‌مان که‌ به‌ ناونیشانی (هه‌ڵکشان و داکشانی نرخی نه‌وتی ئۆپیک له‌ ماوه‌ی نێوان ساڵانی(1961-2019)یه‌ ئامانجستنه‌ڕووی نرخی نه‌وته‌ له‌و ماوه‌یه‌دا. لە رێگای بەکارهێنانی هەردوو میتودی وەسفی و شیکردنەوە داتا وزانیارییەکان .له‌ سه‌ره‌تا دا باس له‌ شێوازی دیاریکردنی نرخی نه‌وت ده‌که‌ین له‌ گه‌ڵ تیشک خستنه‌ سه‌ر نرخی نه‌وت پێش دامه‌زراندنی ڕێکخراوی ئۆپیک دواتر ماوه‌ی نێوان ساڵانی لێکۆڵینه‌وه‌مان دابه‌ش کردوه‌ بۆ چه‌ند قۆناغێک له‌ گه‌ڵ شیکردنه‌وه‌ی

Total Shareholder Returns from Petroleum Companies and Oilfield Services (2004-2014): Capital Gains and Speculation Dissected to Aid Corporate Strategy and Investor Decisions

This study compares the long-term shareholder returns of diversified oil and gas majors, Canadian oil sands producers, US shale oil and gas producers and oilfield services companies during a decade of volatile oil and gas prices (2004-2014). Total shareholder returns (TSR) are analyzed for individual companies, for each peer group, and for the petroleum sector as a whole. We attempt to identify the factors that contributed to TSR growth and decline over the performance period 2004-2014. We specifically compare the performance of each peer group during two relatively stable periods, namely 2004-2007 (Period 1), and 2009-2013 (Period 2). In Period 1, the average TSR for all peer groups was higher than in Period 2. The increase or loss of TSR is in our study broken down into capital gains and dividends. The observed decline of TSR during Period 2 was mainly influenced by stock prices that reflected a slower growth in retained earnings that supports the capital gains. All peer groups had slower increases in retained earnings in 2009-2013 as compared to 2004-2007. Remarkably, during the two oil price crises of 2008 and 2014 all companies maintained an increase in retained earnings. For the 20 companies evaluated, further in-depth analyses of speculative investor valuations are included in our study, as well as implications for future corporate strategies and investor decisions.

Assessing the impact of two recessions on the oil and gas industry: severity of declines and future outlook

Six years after the Great Recession of 2008/2009, the oil and gas industry is afflicted by a new crisis: OPEC’s global oil price war. Many see the 2014/2015 oil price plunge as a test of financial endurance between OPEC and US shale producers. Shale producers have added 4 million barrels of crude per day to global oil supply since 2010, and reduced the US need for Saudi imports. Canadian tar sand producers added nearly another 4 million barrels per day in less than a decade. Rising output of US shale oil and Canadian tar sand producers threatened to erode the OPEC market share. All growth in global oil demand has over the past decade led to a rise in market share only for non-OPEC producers. That is what Saudi Arabia and its OPEC associates wanted to stop. In an effort to put the new entrants (unconventional oil producers) out of business, the 2014/2015 oil price plunge has been deliberately prolonged by OPEC, which continues to oversupply the market by more than 1.5 million barrels per day. Unlike today, OPEC helped in 2008/2009 to restore oil prices rapidly by steep production cuts in response to lagging oil demand owing to the global recession. In this article, we compare the severity of the impact brought on by the two most recent oil price crises on the various types of oil companies. Tracking timely market capitalization and P/E ratios (share price per earnings) of the oil majors covering the 2008 epoch of oil price decline confirmed that oil company KPIs recovered rapidly during the second quarter of 2009 (Weijermars, 2010; 2011). An update of the analysis of key performance indicators (KPI) over the past decade provides insight into how companies are affected by poor market conditions. We examine the periods before the two recessions, and include post-2014 data after the beginning of the current oil price war. This study tracks the impact of economic downturns on 26 upstream oil and gas companies. In order to facilitate the analysis of the data for the 26 companies tracked on this study, they were split into peer groups based on shareholder structure, size of the corporation, degree of vertical integration and the types of oil/gas production most commonly performed by the company. The five different peer groups studied are majors, independents, US shale producers, Canadian oil sand producers and public private partnerships (PPP). The five peer groups and their respective companies are presented in Table 1. The KPIs chosen for our study are share prices, market capitalization and return on capital employed (ROCE). These were tracked annually, quarterly and daily between 2005 and 2014, and for the first half of 2015 with information available until completion of our study (July 2015).