Official Investigation Reports Research Articles

Exploring the intersection of disasters and science education with preservice science teachers through a disaster case study

AbstractModern society is under increasing threats of natural and technological disasters, which involve complex interactions among science, technology and social structures. Although a scientific understanding of disasters is an immediate global issue, there is limited discussion about how disasters can relate to science education. To address this gap, we report findings from a research study to support preservice science teachers’ learning about disasters and its relevance to science education. Fifteen preservice science teachers participated in a six-hour workshop focused on the scientific and sociotechnical aspects of the humidifier disinfectant disaster, which caused severe lung injuries to half a million people in South Korea. The study aim was to identify preservice science teachers’ perceptions about how disasters can be incorporated into science teaching. The participants were engaged in a series of group activities using the official investigation report, followed by a discussion on the aspects of science, technology, and society that unfolded in the disaster. Our analysis suggested that the participants were able to discover important aspects of the mutual relationship between science and disasters, and propose various cognitive, attitudinal, and functional aims that could be pursued by embedding disasters in science lessons. The lesson plans showed that the participants were able to suggest how to use disasters in science lessons and leverage diverse teaching methods to achieve their lesson goals. However, the shift in their perceptions before and after the workshop was limited. We argue that support is necessary for preservice science teachers to incorporate disasters into the science classroom, by providing more time and resources and lowering the barriers related to the political and traumatic aspects of disasters.

Numerical investigation of the Pedrógão Grande pyrocumulonimbus using a fire to atmosphere coupled model

Understanding the development of fire-generated thunderstorms in mega fire events is important given their high impact on the evolution of the fire fronts, where the fire spread becomes highly unpredictable and difficult to suppress. This study aims to investigate numerically the influence of strong pyro-convective activity on the local atmospheric conditions by means of a numerical simulation based on the coupled Meso-NH/ForeFire code. To our knowledge, it is the first time that the effect of wildfire spread on the local atmospheric conditions is accounted explicitly in a high-resolution NWP model to investigate pyro-convection activity. More specifically, we study numerically the Portuguese Pedrógão Grande mega fire, which was one of the most destructive and deadliest wildfire hazards affecting the Mediterranean region in the recent years. The spatio-temporal propagation of the wildfire was assigned a priori on the basis of the official investigation's reports, while the impact of the forced fire evolution and of the ensuing heat and water vapour emissions on the local atmospheric conditions is accounted explicitly. The simulation, configured with very-high spatial and temporal resolutions, was capable of resolving the intense convective column reaching the upper troposphere and the fast development of the associated cloud system. The numerical fire produced intense updraughts with vertical velocities above 15 m/s, whereas the associated pyroCb cloud was composed by five different hydrometeor species along the main convective column and reached an altitude of 10 km. It is remarkable that the numerical experiment reproduced phenomena occurring at a fine scale related to cloud microphysics, such as very-localized outflows. This study, based on a coupled numerical simulation, was capable of illustrating in detail the development of a pyroCb cloud from strong pyro-convective activity.

Systematic Analysis of the Contributory Factors Related to Major Coach and Bus Accidents in China

The purpose of this study was: (1) to propose a classification system for the contributory factors behind major coach and bus accidents with mass casualties based on the human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS); and (2) to identify the main contributory factors behind accidents and the main indicators of the causal factors. Based on 56 official investigation reports of major coach and bus accidents with more than 10 fatalities, a qualitative content analysis was conducted to develop a modified classification system for the contributory factors behind these accidents, and a gray correlation analysis was conducted to identify the main causative factors and indicators by calculating the correlation degrees. The results showed that the modified classification system for the contributory factors behind major coach and bus accidents can be divided into seven levels: government regulations, the organizational influence of passenger transportation enterprises, unsafe internal operational supervision, preconditions for drivers’ unsafe acts, drivers’ unsafe acts, proximate causes other than the driver’s act, and moderating factors affecting accident severity and probability. The organizational influence of passenger transportation enterprises is the most significant factor affecting the accidents. Thus, passenger transport enterprises must systematically strengthen their responsibility and safety management to prevent accidents. Accident investigations should begin with the accident process to determine the proximate cause as well as the factors that influence the likelihood and severity of the accident.

CAUSATIVE ANALYSIS FOR A SUNK FERRY RO-RO IN INDONESIA: SEAKEEPING, WAVE HEIGHT AND LASHING CORRELATION

In this research, one sunk case is reanalysed based on official investigation report from Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee. At first, causative factors contributing to the accident are identified utilizing MOP Model. Second, the technical analysis is carried out to support the previous qualitative analysis by MOP Model, such as Seakeeping and minimum angle analysis for vehicle being slide on car deck. The analysis result shows that the minimum angle causing the vehicle being slide on vehicle deck is 20 degrees for unlashed vehicle. That angle number is reached when the ship was hit by wave height of 3 m, which was the wave height at the time of the accident with several additional condition that is discussed in this paper. The aim of this research is finding any correlation between seakeeping, wave height, and unlashed vehicle on Ferry Roro safety that happen in the case study.

Hypothesis for fault dynamic monitoring evolution in railway systems

This paper presents the technical analysis and results of an inquiry carried out by General Directorate for Railway and Maritime Investigations (DiGIFeMa) belonging to Infrastructure and Transportation Italian Minister. The target of this study tries drawing how the prognostic theory can be applied to railway maintenance in order to optimize procedures and operational features on railway safety. The case of study points on a HS railway vehicle derailment event, that has analysed in an Official Investigation Report drawn by Italian Transportation and Infrastructure Ministry. This document, drafted according to Legislative Decree n. 50/2019, represents the identification of technical faults, which have generated the accident, and leads to specific technical recommendations. Starting from these results, one of the most important Italian Railway Undertaking has carried out a verification of the existing vehicle safety monitoring devices, used during high-speed rail operation. Moreover, due to the prognostic’s theory, a wide research and series of experimental tests could be developed on old and new devices which verify the functional status of mechanical elements connected to the rotation of the railway wheelsets.

Decision making on sea: an expert system for risk assessment in maritime using data mining

This work proposes the prototyping implementation of a dynamic expert system. The essence is the proposal is prediction of ship accidents. The validation process is based on data collected from coast guard official investigation reports. A classifier based on C5 algorithm is able to work even in presence of limitations for real-world data (noisy, many missing attribute values, etc). C5 algorithm is used for building decision trees and the models are used in the knowledge acquisition and its representation. The optimal decision rules estimated the dependency of the most important predictor upon the target variable 'source of accidents'. The comparison between two time periods shows that accidents due to human error were reduced, a result in line with the IMO report. The resulting patterns can be used to gain insight into aspects of shipping safety and to predict outcomes for future situations as an aid to decision making.

Analysis and assessment of the Qingdao crude oil vapor explosion accident: Lessons learnt

A devastating crude oil vapor explosion accident, which killed 62 people and injured 136, occurred on November 22, 2013. It was one of the most disastrous vapor cloud explosion accidents that happened in Qingdao's storm drains in China. It was noted that blast overpressure and flying debris were the main causes of human deaths, personal injuries and structure damages. Two months after the accident, it was reported that there were three contentious issues in the investigation report. First issue was the discrepancy between the temperature of the crude oil vapor explosive limits which were measured by the investigation panel and the temperature reported by the local fire department. Second issue was the contradiction between the upper explosive limit and vapor pressure of the crude oil vapor. The last issue was the location of the ignition source which led to the explosion.In the present study some specific features of this accident and various causes led to the explosion, high casualties and severe damages were analyzed. Three contentious issues in the official investigation report were investigated and tested in detail. The first element tested was the explosive limits and limiting oxygen concentration of the crude oil vapor at different temperatures. Based on theoretical analysis and field investigations, the last two elements in the report were analyzed from multiple perspectives. Based on the TNO Multi-Energy model and PROBIT equations, damage probability of affected people at the leaking site was also estimated. The investigation concluded with a result that precautions need to be taken to prevent flammable gas explosions in the drainage systems. Key steps were explicitly discussed for improving the hazard identification and risk assessment of similar accidents in the future.

Anthrax in a backyard domestic dog in Ukraine: a case report.

Anthrax has been reported in domestic and wild dogs throughout much of the world. Generally, canids are considered resistant to anthrax, although there are several reports of anthrax deaths in both wild and domestic canid populations. Prior to 2012, anthrax had not been reported in dogs in Ukraine, despite a long history in livestock and wildlife. An outbreak involving at least one cow and one dog was reported from a backyard setting in southern Ukraine in August of 2012. Laboratory results and epizootic data were compiled from official investigation reports of regional and state veterinary services involved in the case response. A single dog died after being fed meat and bones from an illegally slaughtered heifer that died of anthrax 5 days earlier. On the evening of the dog's death, the dog refused food or water; however, there were no other clinical signs. Laboratory tests of dog tissue included traditional bacteriology for Bacillus anthracis, a small rodent bioassay for virulence, and immunoprecipitation tests (IPT). IPT was positive, viable B. anthracis colonies were cultured, and a bioassay confirmed virulence. This was the first confirmed case of canid anthrax in Ukraine. This case report serves to remind veterinary officials that anthrax can affect a wide number of species. We advise surveillance systems remain flexible and include animals that might not otherwise be tested.

Scour failure of bridges

In recent years there have been several bridge collapses in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland that have been caused by scour. Towns in the north west of England have been cut off and loss of life occurred. Major railway lines have been closed for extended periods. Although scour is basically the removal of bed material due to flowing water, it has a number of different causes and takes different forms. The paper describes the different forms of scour and looks at a number of case studies to illustrate the different ways in which scour has caused structures to collapse or require protection. The case studies are of railway bridges and are drawn from official investigation reports and underwater examinations carried out by the author. The paper concludes by illustrating ways in which failures due to scour could be avoided by the employment of good bridge management systems.

University of Tsukuba defends professor’s dismissal

Administrators at the University of Tsukuba have read the letter from 11 physicists who criticized the university’s disciplinary action against Teruji Cho (Physics Today, December 2008, page 10). We are concerned that the writers did so without a full grasp of the incident and the procedure followed by the university. The university’s website has posted the official investigation report in Japanese (http://www.tsukuba.ac.jp/public/press/080306press_4.pdf) and an abridged English translation (http://www.tsukuba.ac.jp/english/public/pressrelease/p_report/report_d.pdf).The University of Tsukuba has an established system of handling incidents of research-related misconduct under its Scientific Ethics and Research Conduct Committee. SERCC sets up an investigation committee that examines the details of the case and reports its findings to SERCC. If SERCC concludes that misconduct was perpetrated, the disciplinary committee of the university’s Education and Research Council determines the disciplinary measures.For the incident involving Cho and three assistant professors, the procedure was strictly followed. The investigation committee, whose members are listed in the online documents, included three distinguished plasma physicists from outside the university.After a year of investigation between April 2007 and March 2008, SERCC concluded that Cho and his three coworkers falsified raw data to make two figures for their paper published in Physical Review Letters (PRL) 1 1. T. Cho et al. , Phys. Rev. Lett. 97, 055001 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.97.055001 and that the falsification constitutes scientific misconduct. SERCC based its conclusions on an in-depth examination of documentary evidence, including emails and intermediate analyses, that it acquired from the students who filed the misconduct complaint and from Cho and coworkers. SERCC reported its conclusions to the president of the university on 4 March 2008 and advised that the authors retract the paper. The president acted on those conclusions and advice. Subsequently, the disciplinary committee determined that Cho should be dismissed from the faculty, and that action was carried out on 27 August 2008. The committee also decided that the three assistant professors be suspended from their positions for one to four months; that was put into effect on 16 October 2008.During the investigation, the university, through SERCC and the investigation committee, took every measure to guarantee that Cho and the three coworkers had opportunities to present their views and rebuttals in written form. Those rebuttals, however, failed to convince SERCC to reverse its conclusions.In the incident, the falsification occurred during the process of making two figures from raw data. Since access to the raw data was confined to Cho’s group, uncovering such a falsification would have been extremely difficult if students from the group had not raised the issue. Besides Cho and the suspended professors, 11 University of Tsukuba faculty members are listed as coauthors of the PRL paper. They are experts on the GAMMA-10 tandem mirror and longtime collaborators with Cho. However, even they could not detect the falsification. After the investigation, 23 coauthors, including 1 of the 3 suspended assistant professors, have asked the PRL editorial office to withdraw their names from the paper.The incident has been deeply troubling for the university, since the mirror fusion research led by Cho had been an important component of our scientific activities for many years. We therefore made every effort to follow the due process of investigation and make sure our decisions were based on fact. The findings left us no choice but to take the action against Cho and three coworkers. The university’s investigation was open, and the results have been made public. We invite our colleagues in the international academic community to read the reports so they can understand the reasons for our action.REFERENCESection:ChooseTop of pageREFERENCE <<1. T. Cho et al. , Phys. Rev. Lett. 97, 055001 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.97.055001 , Google ScholarCrossref, ISI© 2009 American Institute of Physics.