*Corresponding author. Email: twukong@yahoo.com Tang Shiping is Professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA), Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Prior to his current appointment, Shiping was Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, where this article was finished. He also thanks Taylor Fravel, Evan Montgomery, and Jack Snyder for helpful comments on an earlier draft. Beatrice Bieger provided outstanding research assistance. The usual disclaimer applies. 1 George H. Quester, Offense and Defense in the International System (New York, N.Y.: John Wiley and Sons, 1977); Robert Jervis ‘‘Cooperation under the security dilemma,’’ World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2 (1978), pp. 167–214; Jack Snyder, ‘‘Civil-Military Relations and the Cult of the Offensive, 1914 and 1984,’’ International Security, Vol. 9, No. 1 (1984), pp. 108–146; Stephen Van Evera, ‘‘The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War,’’ International Security, Vol. 9, No. 1 (1984), pp. 58–107; Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1999); and Charles L. Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, ‘‘What Is the Offense-Defense Balance and How Can We Measure It?’’ International Security, Vol. 22, No. 4 (1998), pp. 44–82. In this article, ODT means orthodox or standard ODT (defined in section 1 below). In the literature, the works of Jervis, Quester, and Van Evera are usually accepted as the foundational works of orthodox ODT. 2 See, for example, Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, ‘Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity’, International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2 (1990), pp. 137–68; James D. Fearon, ‘Rationalist Explanations for War’, International Organization, Vol. 49, No. 3 (1995), pp. 401–404; Robert Gilpin, War and Changes in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), pp. 59–63; Charles L. Glaser, ‘Realists as Optimists: Cooperation as Self-help’, International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (1994), pp. 50–90; Charles L. Glaser, ‘When Are Arms Races Dangerous?’ International Security, Vol. 28, No. 4 (2004), pp. 44–84; Ted Hopf, ‘Polarity, The Offense Defense Balance, and War’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 85, No. 2 (1991), pp. 475–493; Andrew Kydd, Trust and Mistrust in International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005), pp. 31–33; Peter Liberman, ‘The Offense-defense Balance, Interdependence, and War’, Security Studies, Vol. 9, No. 1 & 2, 1999–2000, pp. 59–91; Evan Braden Montgomery, ‘Breaking out of the Security Dilemma: Realism, Reassurance, and the Problem of Uncertainty’, International Security, Vol. 31, No. 2 (2006), pp. 151–185; Barry Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrines: France, Britain, and Germany between the World Wars (Ithaca: Cornell The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, 2010, 213–260 doi:10.1093/cjip/poq004