OECD Data Research Articles

Child COVID-19 rates and migrant status: A quantitative study in the Lisbon area (Mar 2020-Jun 2022)

Abstract Introduction According to OECD data, immigrant children were over-represented among COVID-19 cases compared to non-immigrant children. However, evidence is missing on whether their migrant status is associated with testing positive for COVID-19. Therefore, we aimed to estimate COVID-19 positivity rates among children residing in five municipalities of the Lisbon metropolitan area, Portugal, and to analyze migrant status as a determinant of health. Methods We conducted a prospective cross-sequential cohort study with 989 children born in 2015, 2018, and 2020 (48.5% non-immigrants; 51.5% immigrants). Sociodemographic data were collected through interview-based questionnaires, and the child’s birth weight and gestational age were obtained from the primary health center’s information system (SClinico). COVID-19 test results (conducted between March 2020 and June 2022) were obtained from the national surveillance system (SINAVE Lab) and categorized into two primary outcomes: ever positive for COVID-19 (yes/no) and positivity frequency for COVID-19 (count). Robust and standard Poisson regressions were used to estimate the association between primary outcomes and demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical variables. We estimate relative risks (RR) and prevalence ratios (PR) with 95% confidence intervals. Results The positivity rate is lower for immigrant children (12% vs 17%). Compared with non-immigrant, and adjusting for other factors, immigrant children are 52% less likely to be ever positive for COVID-19 (PR = 0.482; IC 95%: 0.392-0.594), and the estimated number of positive tests is 54% lower (RR = 0.456; IC 95%: 0.362-0.574). Conclusions Being an immigrant is a protective factor against testing positive for COVID-19, aligning with the well-known immigrant paradox. These results underscore the need for further research into the immunological profiles of this population and are crucial for guiding strategies to manage emerging public health crises. Key messages • Immigrant children living in the Lisbon metropolitan area may have a protective factor against testing positive for COVID-19, consistent with the well-known immigrant paradox. • Understanding COVID-19 positivity rates and associated factors in children is crucial for guiding effective strategies to manage and mitigate emerging public health crises.

Analysis of Financial and Digital Literacy Aspects in Modern Economy: Combating Internet Disinformation and Hybrid Threats in OECD

In the current political and economic context, the world is actively addressing the issue of combating disinformation and influencing public opinion. Within the OECD, various initiatives and projects focus on strengthening citizens' critical thinking, promoting media literacy and increasing information transparency. The organization also addresses digital influence and disinformation, considering ways to enhance society's resilience to these issues. Research examines the ability of individuals to combat internet traps, hoaxes, and disinformation in OECD countries, analyzing how individuals identify and detect disinformation and false information online. The research employs various statistical methods, primarily clustering analysis, as well as the analysis of statistical relationships between variables and country comparison analysis. The research indicators are based on OECD data from 2022. The study's results provide useful information for cyber security experts, policymakers, and the general public who are working to combat the spread of disinformation, hybrid threats and hoaxes on the internet.

A Study Regarding the Relationship between Carbon Emissions, Energy Consumption, and Economic Development in the Context of the Energy Growth Nexus

As the EU strives to achieve its climate goals, it is becoming increasingly crucial to understand the complex relationships between economic activity, energy consumption, and carbon emissions. In this context, our paper aims to investigate the correlation between carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic development. To fulfill our aim, we have used Eurostat and OECD data for the EU-27 member states for a period of 13 years (2010–2022), using a linear regression as the main analysis method. Our results have shown that there is a strong correlation between demand-based and production-based CO2 emissions as well as between production-based CO2 emissions and final energy consumption, while at the same time, our findings have shown that there is no direct correlation between energy consumption and economic development, aligning our study with the neutrality hypothesis of the energy growth nexus. This paper expands the ongoing discussion on sustainable development and climate change mitigation by conducting a thorough analysis of the EU-27 countries over a span of thirteen years. The results emphasize the need for integrated strategies that address both production and consumption emissions, emphasize the vital role of energy efficiency, and raise questions about the effectiveness of increasing energy consumption to enhance economic productivity or CO2 efficiency.

Targeted transfers, a left-wing policy? The impact of left-wing governments and corporatism on transfers to low-income families (1982–2019)

In the last decades, several countries introduced new income-tested child benefits and targeted in-work tax credits to boost the income of low-income families. Inspired by the power resource theory, I postulate that left-wing governments tend to increase benefits to low-income families because their ideology favours redistribution and to consolidate the vote of low-income families, but that both right- and left-wing governments increase benefits for middle-income families. The impact of left-wing governments should be stronger in countries with a weak bargaining system as social partners are unable to reduce inequalities between families. To demonstrate this argument, I use statistical analyses based on OECD data to measure the effect of government ideology and corporatism on the level of benefits received by low- and middle-income families in OECD countries from 1982 to 2019. The results indicate that left-wing parties have a significant impact on benefits received by low-income families, but not on benefits received by middle-income families. Also, even though corporatism is associated with different types of child benefits, it does not influence the relationship between left-wing governments and benefits received by low-income families.

The Netherlands’ Minimum Wage 1969–2022: Can We Learn from Decline?

Abstract This paper evaluates the evolution of the Dutch minimum wage since its introduction in 1969 and discusses this as an intriguing case suggesting that a deeper, economic analysis of firm and employee behaviours is required for minimum-wage analysis in general. The real level of the minimum wage has fallen tremendously after 1979, all the way back nowadays to the level of the early 1970s, due to the system of uprating and to government interventions. The minimum-wage employment share shows an even stronger decline after 1979, but, surprisingly, the share below the unchanged real minimum wage of 1979 and in bands above this has remained largely unchanged. Intriguingly, firms have continued paying the same. Composition shifts in minimum-wage employment are significant, towards larger enterprise on the demand side and towards part-time employees on the supply side. Nationally and internationally, virtually all available minimum-wage analyses of employment effects focus on rises of the minimum wage and ignore drops. However, OECD data show that declines are surprisingly frequent, making them perfectly normal economic occurrences that firms will account for. I argue that declines deserve examination in their own right, certainly also from a monopsonistic perspective. Plausibly, declines incite different responses from increases, and their analysis will require the examination of heterogeneous behaviour of both firms and employees. Such analysis will reinforce the economics of minimum-wage analysis as advocated by David Neumark and its integration in labour economics as advocated by David Card.

Navigating Socio-Economic Forces: Understanding FDI Patterns in OECD Economies

This study investigates the FDI patterns’ ecosystem within the OECD regions. The goal is to understand the multifaceted interaction of socio-economic mechanisms driving such patterns. Using a quantitative survey that incorporates patterns of the past and dynamics of the present, the research paper discusses the role that FDI flows in OECD countries have played throughout history. The way study employs OECD data, national data, as well as relevant international institutions such as the UNCTAD and the World Bank is the methodological framework. The analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data underpins the study through the methodology which pays particular attention to the correlation analysis, linear regression, and multiple regression within its framework. The research paper was based on a sample of 38 economically diverse OECD member states and looks into what factors promote foreign direct investment inflows and outflows, and what these could be, for instance, the economic size, level of industrialization, and how the trade is shared across regions. Besides, the study also points out some areas that would be worthy of adding to the list of questions to explore, for example, digital transformation, its impact on the trends of FDI, and the significance of FDI in regional economic integration. These results point to the fact that study should pay more attention to emerging socio-economic conditions and research have to adapt them when designing the policies and future strategies within the framework of international economic relations.

The Mediating and Moderating Role of Social-Emotional Skills in the Relationship between Sports Participation and Test Anxiety.

Test anxiety is a prevalent issue among adolescents, prompting a need for effective coping mechanisms. Participation in sports, which is gaining recognition for its crucial role in alleviating test anxiety, may be effective due to its association with social-emotional skills. Moreover, students with diverse levels of social-emotional skills not only experience enjoyment in sports differently but also perceive test anxiety uniquely, leading to varying interpretations of the relationships between them. Due to the lack of direct evidence, therefore, this study aimed to explore the intricate relationships among sports participation, test anxiety, and social-emotional skills. Utilizing OECD data from 61,010 participants across 10 locations, all variable measurements were collected through the Survey on Social and Emotional Skills (SSES). The results indicated that social-emotional skills mediated and moderated the relationship between sports participation and test anxiety. However, only lower- and medium-level social-emotional skills significantly weakened the negative correlation between sports participation and test anxiety. Social-emotional skills serve a dual function in the relationship between sports participation and test anxiety. Not only do they elucidate why sports participation can alleviate test anxiety, but they also act as regulators, moderating the extent of this alleviation. These findings provide valuable insights for educational interventions, underscoring the importance of sports participation and the cultivation of social-emotional skills in mitigating test anxiety.

Evaluation of Russian OFDI based on balance of payments and OECD data (before COVID-19)

Evaluation of Russian OFDI based on balance of payments and OECD data (before COVID-19)

Estimating the uncertainty of the greenhouse gas emission accounts in global multi-regional input–output analysis

Abstract. Global multi-regional input–output (GMRIO) analysis is the standard tool to calculate consumption-based carbon accounts at the macro level. Recent inter-database comparisons have exposed discrepancies in GMRIO-based results, pinpointing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission accounts as the primary source of variation. A few studies have analysed the robustness of GHG emission accounts, using Monte Carlo simulations to understand how uncertainty from raw data propagates to the final GHG emission accounts. However, these studies often make simplistic assumptions about raw data uncertainty and ignore correlations between disaggregated variables. Here, we compile GHG emission accounts for the year 2015 according to the resolution of EXIOBASE V3, covering CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions. We propagate uncertainty from the raw data, i.e. the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and EDGAR inventories, to the GHG emission accounts and then further to the GHG footprints. We address both limitations from previous studies. First, instead of making simplistic assumptions, we utilise authoritative raw data uncertainty estimates from the National Inventory Reports (NIRs) submitted to the UNFCCC and a recent study on uncertainty of the EDGAR emission inventory. Second, we account for inherent correlations due to data disaggregation by sampling from a Dirichlet distribution. Our results show a median coefficient of variation (CV) for GHG emission accounts at the country level of 4 % for CO2, 12 % for CH4 and 33 % for N2O. For CO2, smaller economies with significant international aviation or shipping sectors show CVs as high as 94 %, as seen in Malta. At the sector level, uncertainties are higher, with median CVs of 94 % for CO2, 100 % for CH4 and 113 % for N2O. Overall, uncertainty decreases when propagated from GHG emission accounts to GHG footprints, likely due to the cancelling-out effects caused by the distribution of emissions and their uncertainties across global supply chains. Our GHG emission accounts generally align with official EXIOBASE emission accounts and OECD data at the country level, though discrepancies at the sectoral level give cause for further examination. We provide our GHG emission accounts with associated uncertainties and correlations at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10041196 (Schulte et al., 2023) to complement the official EXIOBASE emission accounts for users interested in estimating the uncertainties of their results.

Environmentally related taxes and their influence on decarbonization of the economy

Environmental taxes ensure sustainable development, but their fiscal and environmental effectiveness differs for countries with different socio-economic characteristics. This study aims to compare the impact of environmental tax revenues on economy’s decarbonization (measured through carbon productivity – the ratio of GDP to carbon dioxide emissions) in different countries, considering their green technologies development and carbon emissions. The paper analyzed OECD and World Bank statistical data for 38 OECD countries for 2002–2021 using linear panel regression models with fixed and random effects (using Hausman test and STATA 18). To identify explicit and latent patterns of this influence, which are common to certain countries, this analysis did not consider each country separately but targeted clusters, distinguished by Ward and Sturges methods based on the effective tax rate on carbon emissions, total environmental tax revenues, total carbon emissions, and carbon productivity. The positive influence of environmental tax revenues on the economy’s decarbonization level has been confirmed for 29 countries (four from six clusters). The effect is the largest for the USA (an increase in tax revenues by 1% leads to an increase in carbon productivity by 0.9% on average) and the smallest – for the cluster including Austria, Belgium, Canada, Costa Rica, Czechia, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Korea, Lithuania, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, and the Great Britain (increase – 0.1%). The negative impact was confirmed for nine countries (two from six clusters): Denmark, Finland, Israel, Latvia, and Sweden (decrease – 0.3%) and Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovenia (decrease – 0.21%).

Spatial and Non-linear Dynamics of Environmental Tax, Technology, and Economic Growth on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in OECD Countries

The current study sought to investigate spatial and non-linear dynamics of environmental tax, technology, and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in OECD Countries. Guided by STIRPAT as the theoretical framework and using OECD data between 2000 and 2021, the study also used the SAR model to investigate spatial dependence. The STIRPAT model is widely applied in environmental impact assessment to help scholars understand the forces that drive environmental issues. The analysis revealed that only economic growth significantly predicts CO2 emissions among OECD countries. Both ABAT and E.T. did not significantly affect CO2 emissions in the OECD countries. The SAR model revealed the presence of spatial dependence. This means other countries with higher emissions are also likely to have neighbours with higher emissions, and vice versa. This means there are spillover effects, where technology advancements and environmental policies in one country or region could influence emissions in other countries, especially neighbouring countries.

Actualization of Numeracy Literacy in Character Education at Elementary School Level in the Era of Disruption

This research aims first to determine the extent of the role of literacy and numeracy in the educational context in building character. Furthermore, to find out what obstacles make literacy and numeracy does not work well well in the educational environment in forming character. The research method used in this article is a systematic literature review, the author searches for published articles related to the title or research topic that the researcher has determined, the articles searched are limited to 50 articles, then the researcher filters them to 20 articles that are considered appropriate and close to each other. to answer this research. The results of the research show that as many as 20 articles from the search results show that the role of literacy and numeracy has a significant impact on improving numeracy and reading skills at primary school level, especially from the results of PISA and OECD data which reveal that Indonesia is still experiencing a decline in terms of literacy and numeracy. From the search results, it can be concluded that literacy and numeracy have a role in character formation in the world of education. So, researchers provide recommendations for the need for support from the government, educational institutions, students' environment and parents to work together to improve students' abilities in calculating and reading while aiming to shape the character of each student.

USE AND REGULATION OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: NEW PARADIGM

According to international organizations data, global FDI flows dropped considerably in 2022.The article discusses certain global long-term trends and pressing problems of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Global Value Chains (GVC) in Russia and abroad. This paper provides key indicators published by international organizations, such as IMF, OECD and others in 2023. The author offers a relatively non-customary approach to the study of FDI and GVC - through the analysis of international migration of factors of production (capital and labor). The author examines the interaction between these two types of international resource transfers and comes to a paradoxical conclusion that the radical change of Russia’s economic relations with Western countries in 2022-2023 was logical and predictable. A relatively non-customary approach is due to the fact that in May 2023 the Russian President and Government emphasizes the importance to develop an action plan to implement the 2023-2025 State Migration Policy Conception. According to OECD data, Russia as a recipient of FDI recorded negative inflow in 2022, but the paper provides a long-term view on the subject. Finally, the author substantiates the need to revise certain principles of Russia’s foreign economic policy as well as theoretical courses on International Economics in educational institutions.

Trade flows, carbon leakage, and the EU Emissions Trading System

The EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) has been shown to have reduced emissions in the participating countries and industries since its adoption in 2005. However, there is less evidence on the shifting of production outside EU to avoid emission controls. We study this so-called carbon leakage with gravity analysis of international trade flows and carbon intensities of trade. We utilize the gravity model on a sectoral level and study its implications empirically. Our findings with new OECD data indicate that some carbon leakage has in fact occurred due to the EU ETS, resulting in higher carbon content of imports to the EU. At the same time, we show that the EU ETS has induced lower carbon content of exports from the EU. In further analysis, we show that the carbon leakage we find has caused a moderate increase in total carbon content embodied in the EU’s trade, despite the decreases in exported carbon.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Unemployment and Future Work

The rapid development of artificial intelligence should also affect the world market. Unemployment is ex- pected to increase as artificial intelligence can perform tasks performed by humans in many different sectors. The eight- year study (2010-2017) investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on unemployment in 26 developed and devel- oping countries. More precisely, this study uses data analysis techniques to investigate how the use of artificial intelligence technology affects unemployment in 26 different sectors. The results of a data study compiling World Bank and OECD data show a positive relationship between advances in artificial intelligence and unemployment. The advancement of artificial intelligence is determined by patent information. Due to the differences in artificial intelligence development between the countries studied, artificial intelligence development has been shown to have a positive impact on the unemployment rate in the studied countries. Additionally, compared to younger workers, older workers with higher education may have less impact on employment due to improved skills. Finally, re- search and development (R&D) spending varies widely across countries, making it difficult to aggregate. Therefore, this study does not show the relationship between the share of R&D expenditures in GDP and how artificial intelligence affects unemployment. One of the most talked about topics in the public today is intelligence. Many people associate this with changes in the economy, especially changes in the economy that are generally expected to cause high unemployment. As artificial intelligence becomes more widespread, the public tends to predict which professions will become obsolete and eventually disappear. The healthcare sector is one of the most challenged sectors outside of production due to various medi- cal treatment studies. There are other scientists who disagree with this bad proposition. They argue that the emergence of artificial intelligence will create new jobs, just like all previous economic revolutions. Keywords-- Artificial Intelligence, Unemployment, Future Work, Impact, Automation, Job Displacement, Skills Gap, Job Creation, Manufacturing, Retail, Healthcare, Reskilling, Upskilling, Policy, Regulation, Mitigation Strategies, Labor Market, Education, Training, and Economic Impact.

Multi-directional Robust Benefit of the Doubt model: An application to the measurement of the quality of acute care services in OECD countries

While individual metrics in evaluating healthcare quality offer in-depth insights into particular areas, they frequently fail to encompass all pertinent information. Consequently, there is a growing need to develop composite measures that comprehensively assess the overall quality or performance of specific care services, especially those not covered by official OECD measures. A novel multi-directional robust Benefit-of-the-doubt approach is proposed to measure overall acute care services quality through a composite indicator while, at the same time, highlighting the potential improvement directions for each single component indicator. First, an approach based on simulated data has been carried out to better describe the advantages of the proposed approach, and then the methodology has been applied to country-level OECD data drawn from the Healthcare Quality and Outcomes programme.

Financial sustainability of higher education system

Purpose- Financial sustainability is vital for the higher education systems in the global competitive atmosphere of the world of 2020s. This paper reviews a comparative analysis between the budgets and expenditures of the Turkish and British higher education systems, beside a view on those of the OECD countries. This paper intends to clarify Turkish higher education system’s difficulties in financial sustainability to provide required academic standards due to increasing costs and number of students versus the economic strength of significant actors such as the United Kingdom in the globalized competition. For this reason, this paper advocates cost advantages provided by the application of effective online education model to acquire financial sustainability clarifying the rise of digital universities by the 2030s. Methodology-. The study employs a literature review aiming to perform a comparative analysis on the financial structures of Turkish and British higher education systems. Moreover, OECD data were also reflected. The aim was to identify the possible difficulties of Turkish higher education system in financial sustainability to provide required academic standards in the competitive global area and find a contemporary solution. Findings- The analysis reveals that the Turkish higher education system have disadvantages in providing financial sustainability under the conditions of increasing costs as well as number of students in order to reach the required standards in the global league. Notably, it is clearly seen that efective application of online education strategy is an opportunity to balance revenues and expenditures in this way. As a matter of the fact, the effect of digital transformation era and the attitude of Generation Z students have already prepared this atmosphere. Conclusion-. Governments highly financed higher education systems after 20th Century. However, financial problems emerged due to increasing number of students and increasing costs. Eventhough the budgets had continuously been increased, Turkish higher education system have realized lower expenditures in the OECD average. Problems in financial sustainability to provide required academic standards have clearly been noticed in the global competitive atmosphere while compared with the example of the United Kingdom. Over the Covid-19 crisis, universities successfully implemented hybrid education around the world increasing the effect of online systems forced by Generation Z’s perspective on embracing Digital Technologies. So, effective application of online education model appeared as a new opportunity for Turkish higher education system to provide financial sustainability decreasing costs and also efficiently compete in the global area. Indeed, blended learning in traditional universities and inevitable growth of digital higher education institutions named as University 5.0 will be seen after 2030s. Keywords: Higher education, university, financial sustainability, Turkiye, United Kingdom, online education JEL Codes: I22, I23, M10, M21

Global value chain participation and CO2 emissions: Does economic growth matter? New evidence from dynamic panel threshold regression

This study investigates the impact of Global Value Chains (GVCs) participation on CO2 emissions in 61 economies using OECD data from 2000 to 2018. It focuses on the multiple regime effects of segregated participation in GVCs on CO2 emissions and employs a threshold model to estimate this impact. The findings indicate that GVCs participation in developing economies leads to higher CO2 emissions, while it has negative impact on higher-growing economies. Moreover, the study reveals that the direction of participation in GVCs matters, as forward participation has varying effects on CO2 emissions. Specifically, backward participation reduces CO2 emissions in both developing and developed economies. These results suggest that policymakers and industry leaders need to adopt a more nuanced approach to managing the environmental impacts of GVCs. They can do this by promoting domestic industries that investing in environmentally friendly technologies and processes for lower and higher-growth economies.

VERGİ REKABETİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

This study first presents the basic concepts and current knowledge on global tax competition and this phenomenon. The main objectives of this study are to present the main practices and instruments of global tax competition, to evaluate the benefits and harms of tax competition in the context of tax havens, and finally to analyze the effects of global tax competition and tax havens on the Turkish tax system. In the light of OECD data, Turkey is the country with the fastest increase in indirect taxes and the highest share in total taxes among OECD countries, which makes it clear that Turkey is among the most negatively affected countries in terms of the effects of tax competition on social justice and public finance.

The global network of product-embodied R&D flows: Have national boundaries really faded away?

We investigate the extent to which national boundaries still matter in the diffusion of innovation globally. By combining the World Input-Output Dataset with OECD data on Analytical Business Enterprise R&D, we built a longitudinal network of 690 nodes (23 industries in 30 countries) between 2009 and 2013, mapping product-embodied R&D flows between industries within and across countries worldwide. Our complex network analysis examines the characteristics of the network and the relevance of national boundaries. It suggests that, while, over time, the diffusion of product-embodied R&D has extended to include more countries and more industries, the importance of exchanges amongst national industries persists. Industries in specific countries are responsible for essential discontinuities in terms of their centrality in the global network, while industries tend to gather in within national boundaries. It would seem that, despite some cross-country variability, within-country flows are more relevant than international flows in relation to the structural features of the global network nodes. These findings suggest the continued significance of national innovation systems for the development and diffusion of innovation.