OECD Area Research Articles

Constructing a high‐frequency World Economic Gauge using a mixed‐frequency dynamic factor model

AbstractThis paper uses information at the daily, monthly, and quarterly frequencies to construct a daily World Economic Gauge (WEG). We postulate a mixed‐frequency dynamic factor model to extract data observable at different frequencies in order to track the health of the global economy. We show that the WEG offers a reliable basis for tracking economic activity during key events such as COVID‐19 and the Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, the WEG is shown to contain leading information about the output growth of the OECD, G7, NAFTA, European Union, and euro areas, in addition to the output growth of 42 individual countries.

Can housing conditions and features affect well-being? A review through Indoor Environmental Quality aspects and Mental Health implications

Abstract The purpose of the scoping review is to explore the relationship between housing conditions, Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ), and mental health implications on human well-being. In fact, time spent at home increased due to the recent COVID-19 lockdown period, and social-sanitary emergencies are expected to grow due to the urbanization phenomenon. Thus, the role of the physical environment in which we live, study, and work, has become of crucial importance, as the literature has recently highlighted. This scoping review, conducted on the electronic database Scopus, led to the identification of 366 articles. This, after the screening processes based on the inclusion criteria, led to the final inclusion of 31 papers related specifically to the OECD area. The review allowed the identification of five housing conditions [house type, age, and floor level; housing qualities; household composition; neighborhood; green spaces] that, by influencing the IEQ parameters, had impacts on the mental health outcomes addressed. By synthesizing the contributions of the review, a list of design recommendations has been provided. These will serve as a basis for future researchers, from which to develop measures to reduce inequalities in housing by making them healthier, more resilient, and salutogenic.

Social origin and expectation of postgraduate enrolment among spanish university undergraduates mediation and moderation effect of fields of study and grades

The effect of social origin on educational expectations has mostly focused on adolescents. Yet, the expansion of higher education across the OECD area has made the transition from bachelor to master programs increasingly consequential for inequality of educational opportunities and social mobility. Applying multinomial logistic regression to data from a survey carried out in 2018 among university students in three Spanish regions, our research reveals the existence of a still meaningful effect of socioeconomic origin on expectations of postgraduate enrolment among university undergraduates, even after controlling for academic progression, performance and choice of field of study. In other words, the analysis provides evidence of a secondary effect of social origin on educational expectations at this late stage of the educational career. Multinomial logistic regression and the Karlson-Holm-Breen method applied to the same data also reveal the inexistence of a mediation effect of field of studies or academic performance. In this sense, our evidence points at a clearly higher weight of the secondary effect, rather than the primary effect of social origin, on the transmission of educational advantage to expectations of postgraduate enrolment among undergraduates. Yet, a moderating effect of both fields of studies and academic performance does exist. As regards field of studies, against our initial expectation, the effect of social origin turns out to be stronger in some fields of studies with better labour market access (strong fields). Regarding academic performance, the sensitiveness of postgraduate enrolment expectation to grades obtained so far decreases with social origin, thus revealing a lingering compensatory effect of social origin at the end of the educational trajectory.

Crude oil and refined products stocks: OECD area

Oil & Energy Trends: Annual Statistical ReviewVolume 44, Issue 1 p. 73-74 Statistical Tables Crude oil and refined products stocks: OECD area First published: 21 June 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/oets.12143AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. Volume44, Issue1June 2023Pages 73-74 RelatedInformation

OECD pension funds as an investment resource at the beginning of the third decade

Pension strategies in OECD countries, the dynamics of pension fund assets at the beginning of the third century are highlighted in the article. Long term demographic pressure from ageing are accompanied at the end of the second – the beginning of the third decades by pandemic challenges with unstable contributions, slowing expectancy gains in old age, problems of low retirement benefits. After the first year coronavirus pandemic stress, the retirement savings in pension funds grew faster than GDP in the OECD area. Pension fund assets continue growing in almost all countries of the area, with the highest rate in Turkey, Lithuania; also a double-digit growth assets rate in Finland, France, Greece, New Zeeland, the United States, etc. As pension fund assets show large variations across countries, the decline of assets was mentioned in Chile, Peru, Estonia. The largest volume of assets are in the United States pension funds leaving far beyond the assets in each of the other countries; but taking the assets percent of GDP, in the Netherlands, Iceland, Denmark it’s higher than in the United States.

Potential carbon leakage risk: a cross-sector cross-country assessment in the OECD area

Achieving climate targets requires more stringent mitigation policies, including the participation of all economic sectors. However, in a fragmented global climate regime, unilateral mitigation policies affecting sectors’ production costs increase carbon leakage risk. Carbon leakage implies reducing the competitiveness of domestic sectors without achieving the full mitigation objectives. Under such circumstances, generating information about sectors’ vulnerability is essential to increase their acceptance of more stringent climate policies and design anti-leakage mechanisms. Our paper calculates and compares potential carbon leakage risk across sectors and OECD countries under varying climate policy scenarios covering GHG emissions along global supply chains. To measure this risk, we use the emission-intensity and trade-exposure metric and emission data including CO2 and non-CO2 gasses. Our results show that agri-food and transport sectors, usually lagging behind in countries’ national climate mitigation policies, could have an even higher carbon leakage risk than energy-intensive industries. Furthermore, we find that this risk can be higher in many downstream sectors compared to directly regulated sectors and is highly heterogenous across OECD countries.

Road safety and sustainability performance: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, we study the impact of road safety on sustainability performance in the OECD area. Road safety is proxied by the severity of road accidents, whereas the sustainability performance of each country is captured by its sustainability score. Our dataset covers the period 2000-2021 and consists of 35 OECD countries. The employed panel data analysis unveils a statistically significant negative relationship between the number of severe road crashes and sustainability score. In particular, a unit decrease in the number of deaths per one million inhabitants due to road crashes leads to a half unit increase in the overall sustainability score of a country. Therefore, policy makers should undertake measures that improve the efficiency of the transport system since this translates in higher sustainability performance. Indeed, less severe road crashes do have a positive impact on the economy, the society and the environment, thus contributing to all pillars of sustainable development.

Editorial - Digital innovation – A driving force of change

In the contemporary landscape, the phrase “digital innovation” has become synonymous with transformation, revolutionizing the way individuals, businesses, and societies operate. The integration of digital technologies into various facets of our lives has not only accelerated the pace of change but has also emerged as a powerful driving force shaping the future. Digital innovation, at its core, refers to the application of digital technologies to create new or significantly improved processes, products, or services. The relentless evolution of technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain, and data analytics has unleashed a wave of transformative possibilities across diverse sectors. One of the key attributes of digital innovation is its inherent ability to disrupt traditional models, fostering a dynamic environment that rewards adaptability and forward-thinking. In recent years, innovation, especially innovation in technology has received great attention in business as a strategic way for resilience. Monge and Soriano (2023), after reviewing 119 articles published in the WOS over the period 2018-April 2022, provide the most complete and up-to-date review of digitalization from a global perspective, summarizing the current state of knowledge within an integrated framework. Ndesaulwa and Kikula (2016) have considered technological innovation as a major force in economic growth and are focused on some of the most distinctive features of innovation in the highly industrialized economies of the OECD area. Although the innovation is seen as a driver for economic growth, it is not certain if digitalization and other innovations will lead to full employment or to a long-term mass unemployment (Arsic, 2020). This author adds that “the employment will depend on the speed of adjustment of education system to technological changes and labor market requirements, as well as on the possibilities for vocational education and change in qualifications”.

Can Homes Affect Well-Being? A Scoping Review among Housing Conditions, Indoor Environmental Quality, and Mental Health Outcomes.

The purpose of the scoping review is to explore the relationship between housing conditions, indoor environmental quality (IEQ), and mental health implications on human well-being. In fact, time spent at home increased due to the recent COVID-19 lockdown period, and social-sanitary emergencies are expected to grow due to the urbanization phenomenon. Thus, the role of the physical environment in which we live, study, and work, has become of crucial importance, as the literature has recently highlighted. This scoping review, conducted on the electronic database Scopus, led to the identification of 366 articles. This, after the screening processes based on the inclusion criteria, led to the final inclusion of 31 papers related specifically to the OECD area. The review allowed the identification of five housing conditions [house type, age, and floor level; housing qualities; household composition; neighborhood; green spaces] that, by influencing the IEQ parameters, had impacts on the mental health outcomes addressed. By synthesizing the contributions of the review, a list of design recommendations has been provided. These will serve as a basis for future researchers, from which to develop measures to reduce inequalities in housing by making them healthier, more resilient, and salutogenic.

Crude oil and refined products stocks: OECD area

Oil & Energy Trends: Annual Statistical ReviewVolume 43, Issue 1 p. 73-74 Statistical Tables Crude oil and refined products stocks: OECD area First published: 10 July 2022 https://doi.org/10.1111/oets.12121AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume43, Issue1July 2022Pages 73-74 RelatedInformation

The role of information communication technologies on carbon emissions in OECD countries: new evidence from method of moments quantile approach.

This paper aims to investigate the effects of information and communication technologies (ICT) on carbon emissions (CO2) in the OECD area. For this purpose, a comprehensive panel data set is utilized covering the 1994-2018 period for 38 countries and a novel method of moments panel quantile regression model which allows to account for fixed effects and endogenous explanatory variables. Results suggest that the ICT, represented by the percentage of individuals using the Internet in the total population, contributes positively to CO2 emissions up to 0.40th quantile and has no effect after this level. The results imply that countries with relatively low per capita emissions are susceptible to the rebound effects, in which better energy efficiency results in increased demand for energy and ICT-related items, hence increasing carbon emissions. At this juncture, one policy idea would be to include a carbon tax into the per-unit purchase price of smartphones, tablets, smart gadgets, and any other relevant ICT items. Additionally, this legislation can assist decrease conspicuous consumption, which can be viewed as a trigger for the demand for ICT products. Additionally, these countries should encourage enterprises to invest in and employ energy-efficient technologies through tax incentives or subsidies.

National and Sectoral Effects of a Decline in the Desirability of Investing in Australia

AbstractAustralia has a long‐standing dependence on foreign investment to make up the difference between domestic saving and investment opportunities. There is, nevertheless, an ongoing debate about the merits or otherwise of inward foreign investment. There has also been a recent tightening of criteria governing foreign investment. The OECD assesses Australia's foreign direct investment regime to be one of the most restrictive in the OECD area, while broader discussions have considered the potential for a decline in Australia's credit rating. This paper uses a dynamic global general equilibrium model—GDyn‐FS—to report on the national and sectoral effects of a decline in the desirability of investing in Australia, relative to other countries.

Crude oil and refined products stocks: OECD area

Oil & Energy Trends: Annual Statistical ReviewVolume 42, Issue 1 p. 73-74 Statistical Tables Crude oil and refined products stocks: OECD area First published: 26 July 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/oets.12091AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume42, Issue1July 2021Pages 73-74 RelatedInformation

A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth

This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world real GDP growth using mixed-frequency models. It shows that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecasting accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. Specifically, the best-performing model yields impressive gains with MSPE reductions of up to 34% at short horizons and up to 13% at long horizons relative to an autoregressive benchmark. The global economic conditions indicator also contains valuable information for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. This indicator is used to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the U.S., the OECD area, and the world economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and the main factors that drive the nowcasts are quantified.

Assessing the responsiveness of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure to macro-fiscal factors and different health financing systems: evidence from the European and OECD area

PurposeIn this paper, the authors assess the responsiveness of OOP healthcare expenditure to macro-fiscal factors, as well as to tax-based, SHI, mixed systems and voluntary PHI financing. Although the relationship between OOP expenditure, macroeconomy, aggregate public and PHI financing is well documented in the existing empirical literature, little is known for the impact of several macro-fiscal drivers and the existing health financing arrangements associated with voluntary PHI on OOP expenditure.Design/methodology/approachThe authors gather panel data by applying three official organizations’ databases. They elaborate static and dynamic panel data methodology to a dataset of 49 European and OECD countries from 2000 to 2015.FindingsThe authors’ findings do not indicate a considerable impact of GDP growth and general government debt as a share of GDP on OOP payments. Unemployment rate presents as a positive driver of OOP payments in all three compulsory national health systems post to the 2008 economic crisis. OOP payments are significantly influenced by countries’ fiscal capacity to increase general government expenditure to GDP in SHI and mixed health systems. Additionally, study findings present that government health financing, irrespective of the different health systems structure characteristics, and OOP healthcare payments follow different directions. Voluntary PHI financing considerably counteracts OOP payments only in tax-based health systems.Practical implicationsIn the backdrop of a new economic crisis associated to the COVID-19 epidemic, health policy planners have to deal with the emerging unprecedented challenges in financing of health systems, especially for these economies that have to face the fiscal capacity constraints owing to the 2008 financial crisis and its severe recession.Originality/valueTo the best of authors’ knowledge, there is no empirical consensus on the effects of macro-fiscal parameters, different compulsory health systems financing associated with the parallel voluntary PHI institution funding on OOP expenditure, for the majority of European and OECD settings.

Foreign Intelligence and Pharmaceutical Industry in Poland. Part 2

In the 1960s, Polish society was still not affected by lifestyle diseases to such a large extent as in the developed countries of Western Europe. However, the statistics on cancer and cardiovascular diseases started to rise in the 1970s, along with the dynamic economic development of Poland under communist party’s secretary Edward Gierek. Meanwhile, the government of the People’s Republic of Poland could not afford to invest simultaneously in all critical sectors of the economy. Particular priority was given to capital-intensive automotive and electronics industries as well as to traditional but important for Polish exports of raw materials (copper, coal). In the 1980s, as a result of the Cold War escalation along with the subsequent tightening of the strategic embargo by NATO states, and — finally — because of the gigantic foreign debt, the financial resources of Poland were reduced almost to zero. The lack of funds for research and development in the field of pharmacy and biotechnology was to be compensated for by an illegal transfer of know-how from the OECD area. Polish foreign intelligence services had already considerable experience in the field of purchasing technical documentation on the black market. In the 1970s, at least a dozen or so antibiotic manufacturing technologies were clandestinely obtained in the West and passed on to the Polish R&D and industry. The article examines the involvement of Polish intelligence in the transfer of medicines, active substances and other pharmaceutical products (including medical equipment) to Poland. The “socially useful” function of communist secret services becomes a fascinating problem in this context. The article is based partly on the documents produced or collected by the Polish foreign intelligence service in 1960–1990, which have been declassified and are now accessible to the public in the Archive of the Institute of National Remembrance.

Is there a waste Kuznets curve for OECD? Some evidence from panel analysis.

We empirically investigated the existence of a Kuznets curve for OECD area in terms of municipal solid waste generation by utilizing a panel data covering the 2002-2017 period. Results from GMM and between estimators conclude that an inverted U-shaped Kuznets relationship holds for OECD countries, but only in relative terms. Results show that consumption expenditure is one of the main drivers of waste generation. Country-based estimations of random coefficient approach state that 8 out of 16 high-income countries and only 2 out of low-income countries have achieved decoupling the waste generation from consumption expenditures. Some policy implications are recommended.

Crude oil and refined products stocks: OECD area

Crude oil and refined products stocks: OECD area

Данъчни стимули за научноизследователската и развойна дейност в страните от ОИСР и ЕС

Tax Incentives for Research and Development in OECD and EU Countries Tax preferences are at the forefront of R&D incentive measures. The article examines the nature and extent of the spread of different R&D tax preferences among OECD and EU countries. The advantages and disadvantages of different tax preferences are discussed. The latest changes in the application of tax relief in various countries are examined. There is a trend of increasing the availability and size of tax incentives for R&D in the OECD area and beyond. At the same time, it is pointed out that excessively frequent changes in tax incentives for R&D can lead to some degree of fiscal uncertainty, the effects of which can have a negative influence on R&D and innovation. Recommendations are given and the need to introduce tax incentives for R&D in Bulgaria is justified.

Hydroxychloroquine as antiviral prophylaxis for exposed caregivers to Covid-19: An urgent appraisal is needed

BackgroundSince the onset of the new coronavirus pandemic, the world is facing a public health emergency. Repositioning hydroxychloroquine (HQ) seems to be a promising option. Many emerging evidences have converged on the effectiveness of HQ in the treatment of Covid-19 infection. In a recent paper, Gautret et al. suggested that further works are needed to determine if HQ antiviral prophylaxis is useful, especially for healthcare workers. MethodsThe purpose of this paper is to assess the Covid-19 exposure and risks level among caregivers. For this, we performed research on internet and PubMed by crossing the following keywords: healthcare givers, healthcare workers, doctors, nurses, coronavirus, Covid-19, mortality, infection rate, chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine. ResultsData on healthcare worker's infection and mortality by Covid-19 are partial and are not systematically published. However, it seems that the infection rate varies between 3.8% and 9% depending on the country. Moreover, the mean age of this population is relatively old, especially in the OECD area. ConclusionsAnti-Covid-19 HQ prophylaxis should be urgently accessed, especially for healthcare workers. It is to be hoped that HQ prophylaxis reduces the morbidity and mortality from Covid-19 infection among this population which is particularly exposed and relatively old.