30-day Mortality Odds Ratio Research Articles

Delay to surgery beyond 12 hours is associated with increased hip fracture mortality

PurposeTime to surgery from admission is one of the few variables known to influence outcome after a hip fracture. We reviewed our hip fracture database to determine correlation between delays to surgery and mortality in our elderly hip fracture population.MethodsData on all hip fracture patients admitted to a large district hospital were prospectively collected between January 1989 and August 2021. Time of the injury, time of admission and time of surgery were recorded. Patients over 60 years old with a hip fracture requiring operative management were included. Patients with pathological fractures, those managed conservatively, and patients delayed for medical reasons were excluded. Surgical timing categories were divided into; under 12 h, 12–24 h, 24–72 h and over 72 h.ResultsTime from admission to surgery was recorded for 10,659 patients, of these time of fall was available for 10,346 patients. Mean age was 82.2 years (sd 8.39) for the cohort and 30 day mortality was 6.20%.Odds of 30-day mortality was 1.43 (CI 1.057–1.988, p = 0.025) for delay to surgery from admission of over 12 h compared to under 12 h. Odds ratios for 30-day mortality were not significant at any other time threshold. The odds of 30-day mortality for delay to surgery from time of fall were 1.550 (CI 1.026–2.459, p = 0.048) at the 12 h threshold.ConclusionThis is the largest prospective study to date in elderly patients with hip fractures demonstrating a statistically significant increase in 30-day mortality with a delay to surgery over 12 h.

Difference in early all-cause mortality among patients having hip arthroplasty a Swedish perioperative registry study 2013–2022

IntroductionHip arthroplasty is a common orthopaedic procedure worldwide. There is an ongoing debate related to the fixation and anaesthesia impact on the 30-day mortality, particularly in the aging population with higher American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) Physical-Status.AimTo study the 30-day all-cause mortality in patients undergoing primary hip arthroplasty, with regards to the impact of age, ASA-class, anaesthesia techniques, indication for surgery and fixation techniques.Materials and methodsPerioperative data for primary hip arthroplasty procedures for osteoarthritis and hip fractures registered in the Swedish Perioperative Registry (SPOR) between 2013 and June 2022 were collected. Binary logistic regressions were performed to assess the impact of age, ASA-class, anaesthetic technique, indication for surgery and fixation on odds ratio for 30-day mortality in Sweden.ResultsIn total, 79,114 patients, 49,565 with osteoarthritis and 29,549 with hip fractures were included in the main study cohort. Mortality was significantly higher among hip fracture patients compared with osteoarthritis, cumulative 8.2% versus 0.1% at 30-days respectively (p < 0.001). Age above 80 years (OR3.7), ASA 3–5 (OR3.3) and surgery for hip fracture (OR 21.5) were associated with significantly higher odds ratio, while hybrid fixation was associated with a significantly lower odds ratio (OR0.4) of 30-day mortality. In the same model, for the subgroups of osteoarthritis and hip fracture, only age (OR 3.7) and ASA-class (OR 3.3) had significant impact, increasing the odds ratio for 30-day mortality. Hemi arthroplasty was commonly used among the hip fracture patients 20.453 (69.2%), and associated with a significantly higher odds ratio for all-cause 30-day mortality as compared to total hip arthroplasty when adjusting for age and ASA-class and fixation 2.3 (95%CI 1.9–2.3, p < 0.001).ConclusionsAll-cause 30-day mortality associated with arthroplasty differed significantly between the two cohorts, hip fracture, and osteoarthritis (8.2% and 0.1% respectively) and mortality expectedly increased with age and higher ASA-class. Anaesthetic method and cement-fixation did not impact the odds ratio for all-cause 30-day mortality after adjustment for age and ASA-class.

Prognostic role of albumin, lactate-to-albumin ratio and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio in infected patients

IntroductionThe prognostic evaluation of the septic patient has recently been enriched by some predictive indices such as albumin concentration, lactate/albumin ratio (LAR) and C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR). The performance of these indices has been evaluated in septic patients in intensive care, but until now their performance in infected patients in the Emergency Department (ED) has not been evaluated. AimTo investigate the potential prognostic role of albumin, LAR and CAR in patients with infection in the ED. MethodsSingle-centre prospective study performed between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2021 at the ED of the Merano Hospital (Italy). All patients with infection were enrolled. The study outcome was death within 30 days. The predictive ability of albumin, LAR and CAR was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). A multivariate logistic regression model was used to examine the association of the indices with 30-day mortality, with comorbidity, acute urgency and severity of infection as covariates. ResultsThe study enrolled 962 patients with an infectious status. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 8.9% (86/962). The AUROC of albumin was 0.831 (95% CI 0.795–868), while for LAR this was 0.773 (CI95% 0.719–0.827) and for CAR 0.718 (CI95% 0.664–0.771). The odds ratio for 30-day mortality for albumin was 3.362 (95% CI 1.904–5.936), for ln(LAR) 2.651 (95% CI 1.646–4.270) and for ln(CAR) 1.739 (95% CI 1.326–2.281). ConclusionsAll three indices had a good discriminatory ability for the risk of short-term death in patients with infection, indicating their promising use in the ED as well as in the ICU. Further studies are needed to confirm the better performance of albumin compared to LAR and CAR.

The Prognostic Value of the Modified Surprise Question in Critically Ill Emergency Department Patients.

Objective: The initiation of palliative care (PC) in the emergency department (ED) is effective in improving the quality of life for seriously ill patients. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the modified surprise question (mSQ), "Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 30 days?" as a trigger for initiating PC in critically ill ED patients. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study over a 6-month period in an ED, during which 22 emergency residents answered the mSQ for critically ill ED patients (Korean Triage and Acuity Scale 1 or 2). The primary outcome was the accuracy of the positive mSQ (negative response to the mSQ) in predicting 30-day mortality, and logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the prognostic factors. Results: A total of 300 patients were enrolled, and the positive mSQ group included 118 (39.3%) patients. The 30-day mortality rate of the cohort was 10.0%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the positive mSQ were 83.3%, 65.6%, 21.2%, and 97.3%, respectively, with a c-statistic of 0.74 and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.42. In a multivariable analysis controlling for clinically relevant variables, the odds ratio for 30-day mortality of the positive mSQ was 4.76 (95% confidence interval, 1.61-14.09; P = .005). Conclusions: The mSQ may be valuable for identifying critically ill ED patients with an increased risk of 30-day mortality. Therefore, it may be utilized as a trigger for PC consultation in the ED.

Mediators of Improvement in TAVR Outcomes Over Time: Insights From the STS-ACC TVT Registry.

Over the past decade, there has been substantial improvement in outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Many patient and procedural factors have also changed over that time, making it challenging to untangle the drivers of those improvements. Among patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement from 2012 to 2018 within the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapies Registry, we examined the relative contribution of changes in patient factors, device modifications, improving experience/skill, and advances in periprocedural care to the observed improvement in outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Mediator clusters included demographics, noncardiovascular comorbidities, cardiovascular comorbidities, device-related factors, and nondevice-related procedural factors. Using logistic regression, we serially adjusted for the mediator clusters to examine the contribution of each to the observed improvement in outcomes over time. Among 161 196 patients treated with transcatheter aortic valve replacement at 596 sites, outcomes improved steadily from 2012 to 2018, including 30-day mortality (6.7% to 2.4%), 30-day composite adverse events (25.3% to 10.5%), and 1-year mortality (19.9% to 10.1%; all P<0.001). In sequential models, the unadjusted odds ratio for 30-day mortality was 0.82 per year (95% CI, 0.80-0.84), which was progressively attenuated with addition of each covariate cluster. Most of the improvement was explained by device factors and nondevice procedural factors. Results were similar for 30-day composite adverse events, although the observed temporal improvement was not fully explained by measured factors, suggesting improved technical skill as an additional mediator. In contrast to 30-day outcomes, each cluster of patient and procedural factors contributed similarly to the temporal improvement in 1-year mortality, indicating a greater impact of patient factors on longer-term outcomes. While US patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement have become younger, healthier, and lower risk over time, the most important factors contributing to improvements in short-term outcomes relate to advances in device technology and procedural factors, whereas changing patient characteristics had a greater impact on improvement in 1-year outcomes.

Postoperative hyperlactataemia and preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing in an elective noncardiac surgical cohort: a retrospective observational study.

Blood lactate concentration in the postoperative period is a marker of physiological stress and a predictor of complications and mortality. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a common preoperative risk stratification tool. We aimed to investigate the association between preoperative CPET results and postoperative lactate concentration with postoperative mortality after major noncardiac surgery. We analysed data from patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery in a tertiary UK centre between 2007 and 2014 who had preoperative CPET and postoperative lactate measurements. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the association between lactate concentration, CPET results, or both and mortality. We analysed data from 1075 patients. A mean lactate concentration >2 mM in the first 12, 24, and 48 h after surgery was associated with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 30-day mortality of 3.9 (2.1-7.3; P<0.005), 4.5 (2.4-8.4; P<0.005), and 6.1 (3.3-11.5; P<0.005), respectively. The dichotomous CPET variable, ventilatory equivalence for CO2 (V̇E/V̇co2; cut-off 34), was associated with increased risk of 30-day mortality (OR 2.5; 95% CI: 1.3-4.8; P<0.005). In a multivariable model, hyperlactataemia and poor V̇E/V̇co2 retained their significant associations with 30- and 90-day mortality when adjusted for age, BMI, and surgical risk. When looking at the combined effect of the dichotomous hyperlactataemia in the first 24 h (cut-off 2 mM) and preoperative V̇E/V̇co2, the OR for 30-day mortality was 11.53 (95% CI: 4.6-28.8; P≤0.005). Our study suggests that postoperative hyperlactataemia and preoperative poor V̇E/V̇co2 are independently associated with an increased risk of mortality after major noncardiac surgery.

What's New in Adult Reconstructive Knee Surgery.

What's New in Adult Reconstructive Knee Surgery.

A comparison between the clinical frailty scale and the hospital frailty risk score to risk stratify older people with emergency care needs

BackgroundOlder adults living with frailty who require treatment in hospitals are increasingly seen in the Emergency Departments (EDs). One quick and simple frailty assessment tool—the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS)—has been embedded in many EDs in the United Kingdom (UK). However, it carries time/training and cost burden and has significant missing data. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) can be automated and has the potential to reduce costs and increase data availability, but has not been tested for predictive accuracy in the ED. The aim of this study is to assess the correlation between and the ability of the CFS at the ED and HFRS to predict hospital-related outcomes.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study using data from Leicester Royal Infirmary hospital during the period from 01/10/2017 to 30/09/2019. We included individuals aged + 75 years as the HFRS has been only validated for this population. We assessed the correlation between the CFS and HFRS using Pearson’s correlation coefficient for the continuous scores and weighted kappa scores for the categorised scores. We developed logistic regression models (unadjusted and adjusted) to estimate Odds Ratios (ORs) and Confidence Intervals (CIs), so we can assess the ability of the CFS and HFRS to predict 30-day mortality, Length of Stay (LOS) > 10 days, and 30-day readmission.ResultsTwelve thousand two hundred thirty seven individuals met the inclusion criteria. The mean age was 84.6 years (SD 5.9) and 7,074 (57.8%) were females. Between the CFS and HFRS, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.36 and weighted kappa score was 0.15. When comparing the highest frailty categories to the lowest frailty category within each frailty score, the ORs for 30-day mortality, LOS > 10 days, and 30-day readmission using the CFS were 2.26, 1.36, and 1.64 and for the HFRS 2.16, 7.68, and 1.19.ConclusionThe CFS collected at the ED and the HFRS had low/slight agreement. Both frailty scores were shown to be predictors of adverse outcomes. More research is needed to assess the use of historic HFRS in the ED.

Prognosis after Intensive Care for COPD Exacerbation in Relation to Long-Term Oxygen Therapy: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Decisions to admit or refuse admission to intensive care for acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) can be difficult, due to an uncertainty about prognosis. Few studies have evaluated outcomes after intensive care for AECOPD in patients with chronic respiratory failure requiring long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT). In this nationwide observational cohort study, we investigated survival after first-time admission for AECOPD in all patients aged ≥40 years admitted to Swedish intensive care units between January 2008 and December 2015, comparing patients with and without LTOT. Among the 4,648 patients enrolled in the study, 450 were on LTOT prior to inclusion. Respiratory support data was available for 2,631 patients; 73% of these were treated with noninvasive ventilation (NIV) only, 17% were treated with immediate invasive ventilation, and 10% were intubated after failed attempt with NIV. Compared to patients without LTOT, patients with LTOT had higher 30-day mortality (38% vs. 25%; p < 0.001) and one-year mortality (70% vs. 43%; p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic and Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex and SAPS3 score confirmed higher mortality in LTOT, odds ratio for 30-day mortality was 1.8 ([95% confidence interval] 1.5–2.3) and hazard ratio for one-year mortality was 1.8 (1.6–2.0). In summary, although need for LTOT is a negative prognostic marker for survival after AECOPD requiring intensive care, a majority of patients with LTOT survived the AECOPD and 30% were alive after one year.

Hyperoxia is Dose-Dependently Associated with an Increase of Unfavorable Outcomes in Ventilated Patients with Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BackgroundAdequate oxygenation in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is imperative. However, hyperoxia increases formation of reactive oxygen species and may be associated with a dose-dependent toxicity. We postulated a threshold for arterial partial pressure of oxygen (paO2) above which toxicity effects precipitate and sought to study the effects on 30-day mortality, favorable outcome at discharge and at 3 months, and delayed cerebral ischemia.MethodsIn this retrospective single-center cohort study, patients with SAH and mechanical ventilation > 72 h were included. Oxygen integrals were calculated above the following thresholds: 80, 100, 120, and 150 mm Hg and time-weighted mean paO2. All calculations were done from admission to end of day 1, day 3, and day 14. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, duration of ventilation, and Hunt and Hess grade. Time-weighted mean paO2 was categorized by quartiles. Favorable outcome was defined as Glasgow Outcome Scale scores of 4 and 5.ResultsFrom November 2010 to February 2021, 282 of 549 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Odds ratios for 30-day mortality increased dose dependently and were as follows: 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.11; p = 0.001) for each 1 mm Hg per day above 80 mm Hg; 1.16 (95% CI 1.07–1.27), above 100 mm Hg; 1.36 (95% CI 1.15–1.61), above 120 mm Hg; and 1.59 (95% CI 1.22–2.08), above 150 mm Hg (all p < 0.001) at day 14. For favorable outcome at 3 months, odds ratios were 0.96 (95% CI 0.92–0.99) for each 1 mm Hg per day above 80 mm Hg; 0.90 (95% CI 0.84–0.98), above 100 mm Hg; 0.83 (95% CI 0.72–0.97), above 120 mm Hg; and 0.77 (95% CI 0.61–0.97), above 150 mm Hg (all p < 0.05). For time-weighted mean paO2, lowest 30-day mortality and highest favorable outcome at 3 months were found in the second quartile (78–85 mm Hg). Thirty-day mortality increased above 93 mm Hg (fourth quartile), with an odds ratio of 3.4 (95% CI 1.4–8.4, p = 0.007). Odds ratios for favorable outcome at 3 months were 0.28 (95% CI 0.12–0.69), 0.27 (95% CI 0.11–0.67), and 0.24 (95% CI 0.10–0.59) for the first, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively (all p < 0.01). No significant association was found at day 1 and day 3, for favorable outcome at discharge, or for delayed cerebral ischemia.ConclusionsIntegrals above the defined paO2 thresholds were dose-dependently associated with an increase in mortality in ventilated patients with SAH. When we considered time-weighted mean paO2, unfavorable outcomes and 30-day mortality were more frequent both below and above a certain range. Unfavorable outcomes increased in paO2 ranges usually defined as normoxia. This emphasizes the necessity to further characterize oxygenation thresholds in ventilated patients with SAH in prospective clinical studies.

Ketamine versus propofol for rapid sequence induction in trauma patients: a retrospective study

BackgroundRapid Sequence Induction (RSI) is used for emergency tracheal intubation to minimise the risk of pulmonary aspiration of stomach contents. Ketamine and propofol are two commonly used induction agents for RSI in trauma patients. Yet, no consensus exists on the optimal induction agent for RSI in the trauma population. The aim of this study was to compare 30-day mortality in trauma patients after emergency intubation prehospitally or within 30 min after arrival in the trauma centre using either ketamine or propofol for RSI.MethodsIn this investigator-initiated, retrospective study we included adult trauma patients emergently intubated with ketamine or propofol registered in the local trauma registry at Rigshospitalet, a tertiary university hospital that hosts a level-1 trauma centre. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospital and Intensive Care Unit length of stay as well as duration of mechanical ventilation. We analysed outcomes using multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex, injury severity score, shock (systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg) and Glasgow Coma Scale score before intubation and present results as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals.ResultsFrom January 1st, 2015 through December 31st, 2019 we identified a total of 548 eligible patients. A total of 228 and 320 patients received ketamine and propofol, respectively. The 30-day mortality for patients receiving ketamine and propofol was 20.2% and 22.8% (P = 0.46), respectively. Adjusted OR for 30-day mortality was 0.98 [0.58–1.66], P = 0.93. We found no significant association between type of induction agent and hospital length of stay, Intensive Care Unit length of stay or duration of mechanical ventilation.ConclusionsIn this study, trauma patients intubated with ketamine did not have a lower 30-day mortality as compared with propofol.

Prognostic Value of Nucleated RBCs for Patients With Suspected Sepsis in the Emergency Department: A Single-Center Prospective Cohort Study

Increase of nucleated RBCs in peripheral blood has been shown to be predictive of mortality in ICU patients. The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic value of nucleated RBCs in the first blood sample taken at admission to the emergency department from patients with suspected sepsis. Single-center prospective cohort study. Emergency department. One-thousand two-hundred thirty-one consecutive adult patients with suspected sepsis were included in a prospective quality register-based cohort study. Inclusion criteria were as follows: patients received in rapid response team with blood cultures taken and immediate antibiotics given in the emergency department. Not applicable. Nucleated RBCs, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and commonly used laboratory tests measured in the emergency department were compared with 30-day mortality. Nvaucleated RBC counts were divided into five groups, called "Nucleated RBC score," according to nucleated RBC count levels and analyzed with logistic regression together with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and Charlson Comorbidity Index. Of the 262 patients with nucleated RBCs equal to or higher than the detection limit (0.01 × 109/L), 26% died within 30 days, compared with 12% of the 969 patients with nucleated RBCs below the detection limit (p < 0.0001). Mortality was significantly higher for each increase in Nucleated RBC score, except from score 2 to 3, and was 62% in the highest group. In multivariate logistic regression, odds ratios for 30-day mortality were as follows: Nucleated RBC score: 1.33 (95% CI, 1.13-1.56), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score: 1.32 (1.29-1.56), and Charlson Comorbidity Index: 1.17 (1.09-1.25). Most patients with suspected sepsis in emergency department had undetectable nucleated RBCs at admission to the emergency department. However, increased nucleated RBCs significantly predicted 30-day mortality. Nucleated RBCs may provide additional prognostic information to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and other laboratory tests.

Improved Survival Among Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Treated With Remdesivir and Dexamethasone. A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

BackgroundThere are limited data on outcomes of moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among patients treated with remdesivir and dexamethasone in a real-world setting. We sought to compare the effectiveness of standard of care (SOC) alone versus SOC plus remdesivir and dexamethasone.MethodsTwo population-based nationwide cohorts of individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 during February through December 2020 were studied. Death within 30 days and need of mechanical ventilation (MV) were compared by inverse probability of treatment weighted (ITPW) logistic regression analysis and shown as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI).ResultsThe 30-days mortality rate of 1694 individuals treated with remdesivir and dexamethasone in addition to SOC was 12.6% compared to 19.7% for 1053 individuals receiving SOC alone. This corresponded to a weighted OR of 30-day mortality of 0.47 (95% CI: .38–.57) for patients treated with remdesivir and dexamethasone compared to patients receiving SOC alone. Similarly, progression to MV was reduced (OR 0.36; 95% CI: .29–.46).ConclusionsTreatment of moderate to severe COVID-19 during June through December that included remdesivir and dexamethasone was associated with reduced 30-day mortality and need of MV compared to treatment in February through May.

The impact of surgeon and hospital procedural volume on outcomes after aortic root replacement in the United States.

Surgeon procedural volume for complex cardiac procedures have become important quality metrics. The objective is to determine the association of surgeon and hospital case volume on patient outcomes after an aortic root replacement for aortic root aneurysms. From 2009 to 2014, 4629 Medicare patients underwent an aortic root replacement for a root aneurysm. Procedures were performed by 1276 surgeons at 718 hospitals. Patients with endocarditis, aortic rupture, or Type-A dissection were excluded. Procedural volume was defined as mean number of cases performed each year during the study period. The impact of hospital and surgeon volume on adjusted 30-day mortality was analyzed as a continuous variable using adjusted logistic regression with cubic splines. After an aortic root replacement, we observed a nonlinear reduction in the adjusted odds ratio for 30-day mortality as surgeon and hospital volume increased. Surgeons that performed approximately five cases/year and hospitals that completed approximately five cases/year had the greatest reduction in the odds of perioperative death. Patients treated at high-volume hospitals (≥4.5 cases/year) had a lower risk for 30-day postoperative stroke (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.51, p = .008), myocardial infarction (HR = 0.49, p = .016), hemodialysis (HR = 0.44, p = .005), and reoperation (HR = 0.48, p = .003). Additionally, patients treated with high-volume surgeons (≥9 cases/year) had lower risk for stroke (HR = 0.65, p = .005), hemodialysis (HR = 0.65, p = .03), sepsis (HR = 0.62, p = .03), and reoperation (HR = 0.67, p = .004). Among Medicare patients undergoing an aortic root replacement, there is a strong inverse relationship between annualized surgeon and hospital case volume and postoperative outcomes. Procedural volume is an important quality metric for this high-risk procedure.

Cardiac arrest in COVID-19: characteristics and outcomes of in- and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. A report from the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

AimTo study the characteristics and outcome among cardiac arrest cases with COVID-19 and differences between the pre-pandemic and the pandemic period in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA).Method and resultsWe included all patients reported to the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation from 1 January to 20 July 2020. We defined 16 March 2020 as the start of the pandemic. We assessed overall and 30-day mortality using Cox regression and logistic regression, respectively. We studied 1946 cases of OHCA and 1080 cases of IHCA during the entire period. During the pandemic, 88 (10.0%) of OHCAs and 72 (16.1%) of IHCAs had ongoing COVID-19. With regards to OHCA during the pandemic, the odds ratio for 30-day mortality in COVID-19-positive cases, compared with COVID-19-negative cases, was 3.40 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31–11.64]; the corresponding hazard ratio was 1.45 (95% CI 1.13–1.85). Adjusted 30-day survival was 4.7% for patients with COVID-19, 9.8% for patients without COVID-19, and 7.6% in the pre-pandemic period. With regards to IHCA during the pandemic, the odds ratio for COVID-19-positive cases, compared with COVID-19-negative cases, was 2.27 (95% CI 1.27–4.24); the corresponding hazard ratio was 1.48 (95% CI 1.09–2.01). Adjusted 30-day survival was 23.1% in COVID-19-positive cases, 39.5% in patients without COVID-19, and 36.4% in the pre-pandemic period.ConclusionDuring the pandemic phase, COVID-19 was involved in at least 10% of all OHCAs and 16% of IHCAs, and, among COVID-19 cases, 30-day mortality was increased 3.4-fold in OHCA and 2.3-fold in IHCA.

Outcomes of 16,436 patients requiring isolated aortic valve surgery: A statewide cohort study

BackgroundAortic valve surgery (AVS) is the gold standard treatment for symptomatic aortic valve (AV) disease patients. We report the temporal trends in the incidence of patients requiring isolated AVS in an unselected statewide population and their mortality outcomes over 17-years. MethodsPatients were identified from the New South Wales, Australia, Admitted-Patient-Data-Collection registry between 1-July-2001 and 31-December-2018. Annual case-volumes and survival outcomes, adjusted for age, sex, referral source, endocarditis, concomitant coronary-artery-bypass-grafting, comorbidities including atrial fibrillation, hypertension and Charlson comorbidity index, were compared across calendar years. ResultsThe study cohort comprised 16436 patients who underwent isolated AVS (mean age: 72.2 ± 11.3y; 67.5% males). Annual case-volume increased from 768 to 1048 cases between 2002 and 2017 (r2 = 0.82; p < 0.0001). Surgical AV replacement (SAVR) with mechanical valves declined from 271 to 104 (r2 = 0.87; p < 0.0001) between 2002 and 2017. In contrast, bioprosthetic SAVR increased from 342 to 729 cases (r2 = 0.93; p < 0.0001). The 30-day, 6-month, and 1-year mortality rates improved progressively from 4.39%, 7.72%, and 9.19% in 2002, to 1.89%, 3.49%, and 4.68% by 2017. The adjusted odds ratio for 30-day mortality and hazard ratio for 1-year mortality were 0.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16–0.69, p < 0.01) and 0.09 (95% CI 0.07–0.12, p < 0.01), respectively. Similar improvements in outcomes were observed after implantation of mechanical or bioprosthetic aortic valves. Heart failure and sepsis were the most common cardiovascular-related and noncardiovascular-related causes death. ConclusionThe volume of AVS has increased progressively over time and has been associated with increased use of bioprosthetic valves and markedly improved 30-day and 1-year survival.

Declining incidence and mortality of ischaemic stroke between 1996–2016: a nationwide study

Abstract Background The incidence and mortality of ischaemic heart disease have been declining over many years. The development with ischaemic stroke is less well studied, and with an increasing elderly population, there is a need for large-scale studies. Recent changes in stroke prevention and treatments may have affected the incidence and mortality of ischaemic stroke. Purpose To examine time trends and sex and age differences in the incidence and mortality of first-time ischaemic stroke in Denmark between 1996–2016. Methods In this observational cohort study, we used Danish nationwide registries to identify all individuals &amp;gt;18 years of age admitted with a first-time diagnosis of ischaemic stroke between 1996–2016. We calculated age- and sex-stratified annual incidence rates and absolute 30-day and 1-year mortality risks. Further, we calculated annual incidence rate ratios using multivariable Poisson regression, odds ratios for 30-day mortality using multivariable logistic regression, and hazard ratios for 1-year mortality using multivariable Cox regression. Results The study population consisted of 224,617 individuals &amp;gt;18 years of age with first-time ischaemic stroke between 1996–2016. The figure displays the unadjusted incidence rates and 1-year mortality risks of ischaemic stroke by calendar year. The overall unadjusted incidence rates of ischaemic stroke per 1,000 person-years increased from 1996 (2.43 [95% confidence interval [CI], 2.38–2.47]) to 2002 (2.91 [95% CI, 2.86–2.96]) and then gradually decreased to below the initial level until 2016 (1.99 [95% CI, 1.95–2.03]). Men had higher incidence rates than women in all age groups except in patients between 18–30 years and &amp;gt;85 years. The absolute mortality risk decreased between 1996–2016 (30-day mortality from 17.1% to 7.6% and 1-year mortality from 30.9% to 17.3%). Women had higher mortality than men in the age groups 55–64 years and &amp;gt;85 years. Similar trends were observed for all analyses after multivariable adjustment. Conclusions The overall incidence of first-time hospitalization for ischaemic stroke increased from 1996–2002 and then gradually decreased to below the initial level until 2016. The absolute 30-day and 1-year mortality risk decreased between 1996–2016. These findings correspond to the increased awareness of stroke prevention and introduction of new treatment options during the study period. Trends in stroke incidence and mortality Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Time trends in incidence, comorbidity, and mortality of ischemic stroke in Denmark (1996-2016).

To examine whether the incidence, comorbidity, and mortality of first-time ischemic stroke changed in Denmark between 1996 and 2016 overall and according to age and sex using a nationwide cohort design. In this cohort study, 224,617 individuals ≥18 years of age admitted with first-time ischemic stroke between 1996 and 2016 were identified through Danish nationwide registries. We calculated annual age-standardized incidence rates and absolute 30-day and 1-year mortality risks. Furthermore, we calculated annual incidence rate ratios using Poisson regression, odds ratios for 30-day mortality using logistic regression, and hazard ratios for 1-year mortality using Cox regression. The overall age-standardized incidence rates of ischemic stroke per 1,000 person-years increased from 1996 (2.70 [95% confidence interval [CI] 2.65-2.76]) to 2002 (3.25 [95% CI 3.20-3.31]) and then gradually decreased to below the initial level until 2016 (1.99 [95% CI 1.95-2.02]). Men had higher incidence rates than women in all age groups except 18 to 34 and ≥85 years. Absolute mortality risk decreased between 1996 and 2016 (30-day mortality from 17.1% to 7.6% and 1-year mortality from 30.9% to 17.3%). Women between 55 and 64 and ≥85 years of age had higher mortality than men. Similar trends were observed for all analyses after multivariable adjustment. The prevalence of atrial fibrillation, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and use of lipid-lowering medication increased during the study period. The age-standardized incidence of first-time hospitalization for ischemic stroke increased from 1996 to 2002 and then gradually decreased to below the initial level until 2016. Absolute 30-day and 1-year mortality risks decreased between 1996 and 2016. These findings correspond to increased stroke prevention awareness and introduction of new treatments during the study period.

Association of Preoperative Body Weight and Weight Loss With Risk of Death After Bariatric Surgery

Perception of weight loss requirements before bariatric surgery varies among patients, physicians, and health insurance payers. Current clinical guidelines do not require preoperative weight loss because of a lack of scientific support regarding its benefits. To examine the association of preoperative body mass index (BMI) and weight loss with 30-day mortality after bariatric surgery. This cohort study used data from 480 075 patients who underwent bariatric surgery from 2015 to 2017 in the Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program, which covers more than 90% of all bariatric surgery programs in the United States and Canada. Clinical and demographic data were collected at all participating institutions using a standardized protocol. Data analysis was performed from December 2018 to November 2019. Preoperative BMI and weight loss. 30-day mortality after bariatric surgery. Of the 480 075 patients (mean [SD] age 45.1 [12.0] years; 383 265 [79.8%] women), 511 deaths (0.1%) occurred within 30 days of bariatric surgery. Compared with patients with a preoperative BMI of 35.0 to 39.9, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for 30-day mortality for patients with preoperative BMI of 40.0 to 44.9, 45.0 to 49.9, 50.0 to 54.9, and 55.0 and greater were 1.37 (95% CI, 1.02-1.83), 2.19 (95% CI, 1.64-2.92), 2.61 (95% CI, 1.90-3.58), and 5.03 (95% CI, 3.78-6.68), respectively (P for trend < .001). Moreover, compared with no preoperative weight loss, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for 30-day mortality for patients with weight loss of more than 0% to less than 5.0%, 5.0% to 9.9%, and 10.0% and greater were 0.76 (95% CI, 0.60-0.96), 0.69 (95% CI, 0.53-0.90), and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.41-0.82), respectively (P for trend = .003). In this study, even moderate weight loss (ie, >0% to <5%) before bariatric surgery was associated with a lower risk of 30-day mortality. These findings may help inform future updates of clinical guidelines regarding bariatric surgery.

Short-course aminoglycosides as adjunctive empirical therapy in patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infection, a cohort study

ObjectiveShort-course aminoglycosides as adjunctive empirical therapy to β-lactams in patients with a clinical suspicion of sepsis are used to broaden antibiotic susceptibility coverage and to enhance bacterial killing. We quantified the impact of this approach on 30-day mortality in a subset of sepsis patients with a Gram-negative bloodstream infection. MethodsFrom a prospective cohort study conducted in seven hospitals in the Netherlands between June 2013 and November 2015, we selected all patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infection (GN-BSI). Short-course aminoglycoside therapy was defined as tobramycin, gentamicin or amikacin initiated within a 48-hour time window around blood-culture obtainment, and prescribed for a maximum of 2 days. The outcome of interest was 30-day all-cause mortality. Confounders were selected a priori for adjustment using a propensity score analysis with inverse probability weighting. ResultsA total of 626 individuals with GN-BSI who received β-lactams were included; 156 (24.9%) also received aminoglycosides for a median of 1 day. Patients receiving aminoglycosides more often had septic shock (31/156, 19.9% versus 34/470, 7.2%) and had an eight-fold lower risk of inappropriate treatment (3/156, 1.9% versus 69/470, 14.7%). Thirty-day mortality was 17.3% (27/156) and 13.6% (64/470) for patients receiving and not receiving aminoglycosides, respectively; yielding crude and adjusted odds ratios for 30-day mortality for patients treated with aminoglycosides of 1.33 (95% CI 0.80–2.15) and 1.57 (0.84–2.93), respectively. ConclusionsShort-course adjunctive aminoglycoside treatment as part of empirical therapy with β-lactam antibiotics in patients with GN-BSI did not result in improved outcomes, despite better antibiotic coverage of pathogens.