Odds Of Marriage Research Articles

The risk of divorce as a barrier to marriage among parents of young children

Using data from the Fragile Families Study, we examine how unmarried parents’ risk of divorce influences their decision to marry. Regression results show that unmarried parents with a high predicted probability of marital dissolution (based on estimates of marital dissolution for a sample of initially married mothers with similar characteristics) had significantly lower odds of marriage to the father of their child even after controlling for individual and relationship characteristics expected to influence marriage transitions. The dissolution propensity we examine also includes a measure of the local divorce climate. As such, our results provide support for the argument that high rates of divorce in the population have led to a fear of divorce among unmarried parents which reduces their probability of marriage.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Likelihood of Marriage: The Effect of Incarceration

Researchers have highlighted the importance of marriage when studying variation in deviance over the life course, but few studies have examined the effect that incarceration has on marriage or have considered variation by race and ethnicity. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), this study contrasts the effect of incarceration on the likelihood of marriage for White, Black, and Hispanic males. Incarceration reduced the chances of marriage for all men, but had a significantly stronger effect on the marital outcomes for Whites. Although Whites were most likely to be married overall, incarceration was associated with a 59 percent decline in the odds of marriage for Whites, and the odds of marriage decreased 30 percent for Blacks and 41 percent for Hispanics. The association was maintained even after controlling for time‐varying life‐course events and static individual‐level factors. This research has important implications for the study of the incarceration and the consequences it can have for spouses, families, and communities.

How do marriage market conditions affect entrance into cohabitation vs. marriage?

Widening gaps in marriage rates have received a great deal of attention in recent years, focusing on the availability of marriageable men in the local marriage market. At the same time, cohabitation has increased in prevalence, playing a role in declining marriage rates. This paper extends marriage market arguments to the formation of both cohabiting and marital unions, using contextual data at the Labor Market Area (LMA) level linked to the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Findings indicate that as the sex ratio increases, the odds of marriage over either remaining single or cohabiting increases, suggesting the cohabitation and marriage are not substitutable. However, the sex ratio does little to explain black–white differences in union formation.

Union Transitions Among Cohabitors: The Significance of Relationship Assessments and Expectations

Data from both waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) were used to estimate the effects of couple‐level measures of cohabitors' relationship assessments and expectations on their union transitions. Although positive relationship assessments deterred separation, they did not hasten entry into marriage. Female partners' negative assessments of the relationship increased the odds of separation, whereas such reports among male partners weakened the odds of marriage. Plans to marry were positively associated with marriage entry, but this effect was considerably larger for White couples than it was for Black couples. Cohabitors' expectations that their union would dissolve were also associated with union transitions. When both partners reported an even to high chance of dissolution, the odds of marriage were low, and the odds of separation were high. Cohabitors' own relationship assessments and expectations are significant predictors of their union outcomes.

The Effect of Attitudes and Economic Activity on Marriage

We use individual-level prospective data from Waves I and II of the [U.S.] National Survey of Families and Households to examine whether attitudes are responsible for sex and race differences in marriage rates net of economic opportunity. We find that persons expressing positive attitudes about marriage are significantly more likely to marry and favorable assessments of marriage accentuate the positive effects of economic attributes on marriage odds. However structural not cultural differences account for the large racial differences in marriage rates. This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America. (EXCERPT)

Sex-Specialized or Collaborative Mate Selection? Union Transitions among Cohabitors

Using couple-level, panel data, we examine how cohabitors' economic circumstances, domestic contributions, gender attitudes, and feelings about domestic equity affect whether they continue to cohabit, separate, or marry. We address whether the contemporary trend toward delayed marriage may be influenced by women's and men's preferences for a marital partner who will share parallel employment and homemaking duties, the difficulty in fulfilling that preference, and uncertainty about gender roles and personal relationship entitlements. Thus, we test two competing models of mate selection, traditional (sex-specialized) and egalitarian (collaborative), and evaluate whether couples' attitudes about gender equity complicate these two models. Our findings primarily support the sex-specialized model, with women's housework and men's earnings associated with higher odds of marriage, and cohabiting men's mate selection strategies seemingly consistent with an exchange of breadwinning for homemaking. Partial support for the collaborative model shows that men's egalitarian attitudes are associated with higher odds of marriage, while the interaction between women's time spent in housework and earnings is associated with higher odds of separation. Given that cohabitors have higher odds of separation if the female partner is more egalitarian than the male partner and that women's perceptions of unfairness to self about housework do not affect union outcomes, we conclude that cohabitors generally use a breadwinner–homemaker framework for evaluating partners' economic and domestic contributions as mate selection criteria.

Why Marry? Race and the Transition to Marriage among Cohabitors

Our study investigates the transition to first marriage among cohabiting black and white men and women, drawing on data from the National Survey of Families and Households. Our results underscore the importance of economic factors on the transition to marriage for both black and white cohabitors. We also find that for black cohabitors, but not for whites, socioeconomic disadvantage during childhood reduces the odds of marriage. The presence of children in cohabiting unions tends to increase the chances of marrying a cohabiting partner for both blacks and whites. Our results demonstrate the importance of including cohabitation in research on the marriage process.

Adolescent Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa

The author considers elements of National Research Council reports on adolescent fertility and economic reversals in sub-Saharan Africa. The fertility report published findings drawn from new Demographic and Health Survey data and related literature to note a change in the social context of adolescent childbearing as a result of increasing secondary school enrollments and later ages at marriage. Overall fertility among adolescents is falling in at least some countries although births to the unmarried are increasing as a proportion of total births to adolescents especially in urban areas. The report describes the social incompatibility of school enrollment and pregnancy or motherhood and the expectation that men assume the responsibilities of fatherhood. Relaxed restrictions on the sexual expression of young men have however increased the weight of sexual demands upon adolescent females. The report on economic reversals was based upon limited data. Its working groups therefore focused mainly upon the income effects of economic reversals as they relate to fertility. Overall economic reversals produce declines in income which delay marriage and first birth. The author also notes a study finding that marriage odds seem to respond favorably to short-run improvements in economic conditions with such effects being most apparent in Botswana Senegal and Togo. In closing the need for coordination and collaboration between working groups is stressed. Had working groups for the two reports shared and discussed their respective data and analytic perspectives before formulating and publishing key findings mutual benefits would have accrued.

Unobserved variables and marital status: the schooling connection.

"This study focuses on the effect of schooling on marital status. A Hausman-type test shows that schooling cannot be legitimately treated as an exogenous determinant of marriage and divorce. It is shown that if schooling is treated as an exogenous variable, the negative effect of schooling on the odds of marriage is underestimated. Further, the results indicate that schooling has a significant negative effect on divorce if it is treated as an exogenous variable; the coefficient for schooling is positive if it is treated as an endogenous variable." The data, which concern the United States, are from the General Social Survey and cover the period 1986-1990.

Parental history of alcoholism and probability of marriage.

Personal interview data for 16,795 U.S. adults 18-39 years of age were analyzed to assess the effect of positive parental history of alcoholism on the probability of ever having been married. The data were collected as part of the 1988 National Health Interview Survey. The effects of parental history were estimated using logistic regression models that adjusted for age, race, gender, and respondent history of alcohol problems. Nonblack adults who lived with one or more alcoholic parents when growing up were 50% more likely ever to have been married than those with no parental history. The effect was of the same magnitude regardless of whether the alcoholic parent was the mother or the father, but was larger if both parents were reported to be alcoholics. Among blacks, positive parental history of alcoholism did not affect the odds of marriage. The greater likelihood of early marriage among children of alcoholics may help explain their excess risk of marital disruption.