Ocean Mixed Layer Research Articles

Impact of a Mixed Ocean Layer and the Diurnal Cycle on Convective Aggregation.

We investigate how ocean feedbacks and the diurnal cycle impact convective aggregation using a slab ocean coupled to a cloud resolving model. With a 20 m mixed layer ocean, aggregation occurs after 25 days. Thinner ocean layers slow the onset of clustering, with a 1 m ocean layer needing around 43 days. The delay is due to anomalous solar radiation in clear sky regions, causing a relative surface warming balanced by a matching cooling in cloudy areas. The resulting gradient in surface heat fluxes opposes low level convergence into convecting regions. On aggregation, the convective regions are surrounded by moist, clear sky regions with the hottest SSTs, toward which convection migrates, while a cold SST patch forms under dry suppressed regions due to enhanced latent heat fluxes and longwave radiation. The next experiment allows a diurnal cycle of 2.5°C in the domain mean SST. This causes convective rainfall to shift from a weak morning maximum to a sharper evening peak, reminiscent of undisturbed tropical observations. However, convection reverts to a weak early morning maximum once aggregation starts due to spatially heterogeneous radiative forcing. This implies thin mixed ocean layers are a necessary but non‐sufficient condition for an afternoon maximum of convection; limited spatial water vapor variability is also necessary. The imposition of the mean diurnal cycle has no statistically significant impact on the mean timing of clustering onset.

Modelling landfast sea ice and its influence on ocean–ice interactions in the area of the Totten Glacier, East Antarctica

The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica is of major climate interest because of the large fluctuation of its grounding line and of its potential vulnerability to climate change. The ocean above the continental shelf in front of the Totten ice shelf exhibits large extents of landfast sea ice with low interannual variability. Landfast sea ice is either crudely or not at all represented in current climate models. These models are potentially omitting or misrepresenting important effects related to this type of sea ice, such as its influence on coastal polynya locations. Yet, the impact of the landfast sea ice on the ocean–ice shelf interactions is poorly understood. Using a series of high-resolution, regional NEMO-LIM-based experiments, including an explicit treatment of ocean–ice shelf interactions, over the years 2001–2010, we simulate a realistic landfast sea ice extent in the area of Totten Glacier through a combination of a sea ice tensile strength parameterisation and a grounded iceberg representation. We show that the presence of landfast sea ice impacts seriously both the location of coastal polynyas and the ocean mixed layer depth along the coast, in addition to favouring the intrusion of mixed Circumpolar Deep Water into the ice shelf cavities. Depending on the local bathymetry and the landfast sea ice distribution, landfast sea ice affects ice shelf cavities differently. The Totten ice shelf melt rate is increased by 16% on average and its variance decreased by 38%, while the Moscow University ice shelf melt rate is increased by +54% in winter. This highlights the importance of including an accurate landfast sea ice representation in regional and eventually global climate models.

Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes

It has been challenging to detect trends of tropical cyclone (TC) properties due to temporal heterogeneities and short duration of the direct observations. TCs impact the ocean surface temperature by creating cold wakes as a “fingerprint”. Here we infer changes of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), size and integrated kinetic energy from the cold wakes for the period 1982–2019. We find a globally enhanced local cold wake amplitude 3 days after the LMI of − 0.12 ± 0.04 °C per decade whereas the cold wake size does not show any significant change. Multivariate regression models based on the observed ocean cooling, the TC translation speed and the ocean mixed layer depth are applied to infer LMI and TC size. The inferred annual mean global LMI has increased by 1.0 ± 0.7 m s−1 per decade. This inferred trend is between that found for two directly observed data sets. However, the TC size and the TC destructive potential measured by the integrated kinetic energy, have not altered significantly. This analysis provides new independent and indirect evidence of recent TC LMI increases, but a stable size and integrated kinetic energy.

Influence of temperature-salinity-depth structure of the upper-ocean on the frequency shift of Brillouin LiDAR.

Brillouin-based LiDAR is an alternative remote sensing technique for measuring the distribution profiles of temperature, salinity, and sound speed in the upper ocean mixed layer. Its principle is based on the dependence of Brillouin frequency shift on the temperature, salinity, and depth of ocean. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the effect of various seawater parameters on Brillouin frequency shift for ocean remote sensing by using the Brillouin LiDAR. Here we theoretically and experimentally investigate the influence of temperature, salinity, and pressure (depth) of seawater on Brillouin frequency shift in the upper ocean for the first time. Numerical simulations of the distribution profiles of temperature, salinity, and Brillouin frequency shift in the upper-ocean mixed layers of East China Sea and South China Sea were performed, respectively, by employing the Brillouin equations and the World Ocean Atlas 2018 (WOA18). A special ocean simulation system was designed to carry out the stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) experiments for validating the numerical simulations. The results show that the seawater temperature is the most important factor for the Brillouin frequency shift in the upper-ocean mixed layer compared with the salinity and pressure. At the same salinity and pressure, the frequency shift increases by more than 10 MHz for every 1 °C increase in temperature. Also, the differences of Brillouin frequency shift between experimental and theoretical values at the same parameter conditions were analyzed. The experimental results coincide well with the theoretical simulations. This work is essential to future applications of Brillouin LiDAR in remote sensing of the temperature, salinity, or sound velocity profiles of ocean.

The Dynamical Coupling of Wind-Waves and Atmospheric Turbulence: A Review of Theoretical and Phenomenological Models

When wind blows over the ocean, short wind-waves (of wavelength smaller than 10 m) are generated, rapidly reaching an equilibrium with the overlying turbulence (at heights lower than 10 m). Understanding this equilibrium is key to many applications since it determines (i) air–sea fluxes of heat, momentum and gas, essential for numerical models; (ii) energy loss from wind to waves, which regulates how swell is generated and how energy is transferred to the ocean mixed layer and; (iii) the ocean surface roughness, visible from remote sensing measurements. Here we review phenomenological models describing this equilibrium: these models couple a turbulence kinetic energy and wave action budget through several wave-growth processes, including airflow separation events induced by breaking waves. Even though the models aim at reproducing measurements of air–sea fluxes and wave growth, some of the observed variability is still unexplained. Hence, after reviewing several state-of-the-art phenomenological models, we discuss recent numerical experiments in order to provide hints about future improvements. We suggest three main directions, which should be addressed both through dedicated experiments and theory: (i) a better quantification of the variability wind-wave growth and of the role played by the modulation of short and breaking wind-waves by long wind-waves; (ii) an improved understanding of the imprint of wind-waves on turbulent coherent structures and; (iii) a quantification of the interscale interactions for a realistic wind-wave sea, where wind-and-wave coupling processes coexist at multiple time and space scales.

Extended shallow-water theories with thermodynamics and geometry

Driven by growing momentum in two-dimensional geophysical flow modeling, this paper introduces a general family of “thermal” rotating shallow-water models. The models are capable of accommodating thermodynamic processes, such as those acting in the ocean mixed layer, by allowing buoyancy to vary in horizontal position and time as well as with depth, in a polynomial fashion up to an arbitrary degree. Moreover, the models admit Euler–Poincaré variational formulation and possess Lie–Poisson Hamiltonian structure. Such a geometric property provides solid fundamental support to the theories described with consequences for numerical implementation and the construction of unresolved motion parametrizations. In particular, it is found that stratification halts the development of small-scale filament rollups recently observed in a popular model, which, having vertically homogeneous density, represents a special case of the models presented here.

Bay of Bengal Intraseasonal Oscillations and the 2018 Monsoon Onset

AbstractIn the Bay of Bengal, the warm, dry boreal spring concludes with the onset of the summer monsoon and accompanying southwesterly winds, heavy rains, and variable air–sea fluxes. Here, we summarize the 2018 monsoon onset using observations collected through the multinational Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BoB) program between the United States, India, and Sri Lanka. MISO-BoB aims to improve understanding of monsoon intraseasonal variability, and the 2018 field effort captured the coupled air–sea response during a transition from active-to-break conditions in the central BoB. The active phase of the ∼20-day research cruise was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST > 30°C), cold atmospheric outflows with intermittent heavy rainfall, and increasing winds (from 2 to 15 m s−1). Accumulated rainfall exceeded 200 mm with 90% of precipitation occurring during the first week. The following break period was both dry and clear, with persistent 10–12 m s−1 wind and evaporation of 0.2 mm h−1. The evolving environmental state included a deepening ocean mixed layer (from ∼20 to 50 m), cooling SST (by ∼1°C), and warming/drying of the lower to midtroposphere. Local atmospheric development was consistent with phasing of the large-scale intraseasonal oscillation. The upper ocean stores significant heat in the BoB, enough to maintain SST above 29°C despite cooling by surface fluxes and ocean mixing. Comparison with reanalysis indicates biases in air–sea fluxes, which may be related to overly cool prescribed SST. Resolution of such biases offers a path toward improved forecasting of transition periods in the monsoon.

Mixed layer acoustic propagation with small scale ocean dynamics

The effects of dynamic oceanographic processes in the upper ocean mixed layer on acoustic propagation are investigated using at-sea sound speed observations and acoustic transmission simulations. The sound speed environment is based on a 400 m deep and 1000 km long East-West salinity and temperature transect that was collected during April of 2005 in the North Pacific where there is a mixed layer acoustic duct with a mean depth of 89 m. The deterministic baseline of this sound speed measurement is first estimated from the observations using a spatial lowpass filter with a cut off length scale of 50-km. The remaining small length scale variations in sound speed are assumed to have two physically distinct contributions: one due to the vertical displacement of isopycnals caused by eddies and internal waves and another due to compensating temperature and salinity anomalies along isopycnals termed spice. These two contributions can be separated yielding three distinct sound speed fields: i(1) the deterministic background; (2) thedisplacement field; and (3) the spice field. Acoustic transmission loss calculations are carried out on these three fields for frequencies of 400 and 1000 Hz for sources both in and below the mixed layer duct. Statistical and deterministic results for acoustic normal modes and full field transmission loss are presented, which quantify the relative importance of displacement and spice for acoustic propagation in the upper ocean.

Seasonal cycle of surface ocean pCO2 and pH in the northern Indian Ocean and their controlling factors

This paper examines the seasonal variability of surface ocean pCO2and pH in the northern Indian Ocean. It aims to identify their controlling factors using a high-resolution, regional ocean-ecosystem model simulation and available surface ocean carbon observations. The seasonal variability of pCO2 and pH of the northern Indian Ocean is attributed to the changes in surface temperature (T), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (ALK), and salinity (S). The western Arabian Sea has an enormous seasonal variance of pCO2 due to coastal upwelling dynamics. In contrast, the seasonal variance of pCO2 in the Bay of Bengal is governed by the upper ocean mixed layer dynamics, albeit with smaller amplitudes. The contribution of T (DIC) in the seasonal variance of pCO2 and pH at the western Arabian Sea is ±90 (∓100) μatm and ±0.18 (∓0.20) pH units, respectively. The contribution of ALK and S is complementary to each other in inducing seasonal variances of pCO2 and pH in the southeastern Arabian Sea with a magnitude of ±5∼10 μatm and ±0.02 pH units, respectively. In the northern Bay of Bengal, salinity plays a significant role in controlling seasonal variability of pCO2 and pH with amplitudes of roughly ±20 µatm and ±0.18 pH units, respectively, along the pathways of freshwater spreading. The maxima of seasonal amplitudes of pCO2 and pH occur during April-May and August-September for both basins. This study highlights the hotspots of pCO2 and pH in the northern Indian Ocean, where observational efforts to monitor pCO2 and pHbecome an essential requirement.

Sensitivity of the Short-Range Precipitation Forecast in South China Region to Sea Surface Temperature Variations

Ocean variability plays an essential role in the climate system at different time scales through air–sea interactions. Recent studies have addressed the importance of the ocean mixed layer in cooling feedback to tropical cyclones (TCs). However, using constant sea surface temperature (SST) in short-range weather forecasts remains common, especially in high-resolution regional models. This study investigates the role of subsurface ocean mixing in the short-range forecast of non-TC extreme rainfall with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. In the simulations of 26 heavy rainfall cases, we found that using a one-dimensional mixed layer model leads to a 15% enhancement (reduction) of rainfall maximum in six (two) cases compared to using constant SST. When the initial depth of the mixed layer model is perturbed by the amount of daily variability, 13 cases exhibit larger than 15% increases or decreases. A detailed analysis of one case suggests that the radiative process dominates the overall response of SST. The warming and moistening of boundary layer air cause significant strengthening of updrafts in convection. Although the SST change in most cases due to varying mixed layer model setups is less than 0.5 K, convective motions in some cases are surprisingly sensitive to small changes.

CICE-LETKF Ensemble Analysis System with Application to Arctic Sea Ice Initialization

To study the effectiveness of methods to reduce errors for Arctic Sea ice initialization due to underestimation of background error covariance, an advanced ensemble analysis system has been developed. The system integrates the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with the community ice code (CICE). With a mixed layer ocean model used to compute the sea surface temperature (SST), the experiments on assimilation of observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) have been carried out. Assimilation experiments were performed over a 3-month period from January to March in 1997. The model was sequentially constrained with daily observation data. The effects of observation density, amplification factor for analysis error covariance, and relaxation of disturbance and spread on the results of SIC initialization were studied. It is shown that doubling the density of observation of SIC does not bring significant further improvement on the analysis result; when the ensemble size is doubled, most severe SIC biases in the Labrador, Greenland, Norwegian, and Barents seas are reduced; amplifying the analysis error covariance, relaxing disturbance, and relaxing spread all contribute to improving the reproduction of SIC with amplifying covariance with the largest magnitude.

Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere climate to ice–ocean interface heat flux parameterizations

Abstract. We investigate the impact of three different parameterizations of ice–ocean heat exchange on modeled sea ice thickness, sea ice concentration, and water masses. These three parameterizations are (1) an ice bath assumption with the ocean temperature fixed at the freezing temperature; (2) a two-equation turbulent heat flux parameterization with ice–ocean heat exchange depending linearly on the temperature difference between the underlying ocean and the ice–ocean interface, whose temperature is kept at the freezing point of the seawater; and (3) a three-equation turbulent heat flux approach in which the ice–ocean heat flux depends on the temperature difference between the underlying ocean and the ice–ocean interface, whose temperature is calculated based on the local salinity set by the ice ablation rate. Based on model simulations with the stand-alone sea ice model CICE, the ice–ocean model MPIOM, and the climate model COSMOS, we find that compared to the most complex parameterization (3), the approaches (1) and (2) result in thinner Arctic sea ice, cooler water beneath high-concentration ice and warmer water towards the ice edge, and a lower salinity in the Arctic Ocean mixed layer. In particular, parameterization (1) results in the smallest sea ice thickness among the three parameterizations, as in this parameterization all potential heat in the underlying ocean is used for the melting of the sea ice above. For the same reason, the upper ocean layer of the central Arctic is cooler when using parameterization (1) compared to (2) and (3). Finally, in the fully coupled climate model COSMOS, parameterizations (1) and (2) result in a fairly similar oceanic or atmospheric circulation. In contrast, the most realistic parameterization (3) leads to an enhanced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode and a weakened Aleutian Low.

Stochastic effects of waves on currents in the ocean mixed layer

This paper introduces an energy-preserving stochastic model for studying wave effects on currents in the ocean mixing layer. The model is called stochastic forcing by Lie transport (SFLT). The SFLT model is derived here from a stochastic constrained variational principle, so it has a Kelvin circulation theorem. The examples of SFLT given here treat 3D Euler fluid flow, rotating shallow water dynamics, and the Euler–Boussinesq equations. In each example, one sees the effect of stochastic Stokes drift and material entrainment in the generation of fluid circulation. We also present an Eulerian averaged SFLT model based on decomposing the Eulerian solutions of the energy-conserving SFLT model into sums of their expectations and fluctuations.

Linking ocean colour features in the Western Iberian margin to wave-induced sediment resuspension and coccolithophore patches

Two ocean colour features in the western Iberian margin (western Europe) were described in present work. They were identified in 10 years (2002–2012) of MODIS-AQUA normalized water-leaving radiance (nLw) at 555 nm and their causes were investigated using complementary satellite, in-situ and model data. One feature was a band of high nLw555 (>0.8 mW cm−2 μm−1 sr−1) with exceptionally large widths (>20 km) along the coast. Over the 10-year period, this wide coastal band of high nLw555 only occurred during winter, following better the increases in wave height, than the increases in precipitation and river discharge. The band seemed particularly associated with episodes of large wave heights (>6 m), under weak thermal stratification and northerly winds. Findings suggest that the band is the signature of exceptional offshore extensions of the more reflective turbid coastal waters, as a result of wave-induced sediment resuspension along the coast. The other feature consisted in areas of equally high nLw555, but separated from the coast by more than 40 km. These offshore areas of high nLw555 shared spectral signatures of phytoplankton, namely coccolithophores, typically formed during spring following water column re-stratification and reached larger areas after winters with deeper oceanic mixed layers. Less commonly, they also occurred from summer to autumn. Results indicate they are mainly the signature of enhanced coccolithophore abundances that also create turbid reflective waters due to their calcite plates. The used methodology separated the two features in time and therefore seems to allow for satellite monitoring of sediment resuspension and coccolithophore blooms off west Iberia and similar coastal environments, which is particularly relevant for detecting events of sediment transport, potentially linked to water quality problems, and long-term changes in phytoplankton composition.

The Mixed Layer Salinity Budget in the Central Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractThe oceanic surface mixed layer salinity (MLS) budget of the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during boreal fall and winter is studied using in situ and remote sensing measurements. Budgets on roughly 100 km scale were constructed using data from two DYNAmics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and two Research Moored Array for African‐Asian‐Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction moorings near 79°E during September 2011 to January 2012. The horizontal advective salinity flux plays a significant role in the seasonal variation of equatorial MLS. In boreal fall, the equatorial and 1.5°S MLS increases due to horizontal advection and turbulent mixing, despite the freshening surface flux associated with MJOs. In boreal winter, with larger sub‐monthly variation and uncertainties, the decreasing of equatorial MLS is accounted by freshening zonal advection and surface flux, abated by salty meridional advection; the 1.5°S MLS is explained by the combination of freshening meridional advection and surface flux, and salty zonal advection. Budgets between 2011 and 2015 are investigated using data products from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, Aquarius, Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real‐time, Objectively Analyzed air‐sea Fluxes, and Argo mixed layers over a wider region. The eastward development of the equatorial salinity tongue in the central to eastern Indian Ocean in boreal fall and the westward retreat in boreal winter are largely determined by the equatorial zonal current. The meridional migration of ITCZ rainfall plays a secondary role. In order to improve model prediction skills of MLS changes in the equatorial Indian Ocean, both zonal and meridional salinity advective fluxes, at a spatial scale of 1° longitude and latitude and a timescale less than days, need to be properly simulated.

Role of Surface Gravity Waves in Aquaplanet Ocean Climates.

We present a set of idealized numerical experiments of a solstitial aquaplanet ocean and examine the thermodynamic and dynamic implications of surface gravity waves (SGWs) upon its mean state. The aquaplanet's oceanic circulation is dominated by an equatorial zonal jet and four Ekman driven meridional overturning circulation (MOC) cells aligned with the westerly atmospheric jet streams and easterly trade winds in both hemispheres. Including SGW parameterization (representing modulations of air‐sea momentum fluxes, Langmuir circulation, and Stokes‐Coriolis force) increases mixed layer vertical momentum diffusivity by ∼40% and dampens surface momentum fluxes by ∼4%. The correspondingly dampened MOC impacts the oceanic density structure to 1 km depth by lessening the large‐scale advective transports of heat and salt, freshening the equatorial latitudes (where evaporation minus precipitation [E − P] is negative) and increasing salinity in the subtropics (where E − P is positive) by ∼1%. The midlatitude pycnocline in both hemispheres is deepened by the inclusion of SGWs. Including SGWs into the aquaplanet ocean model acts to increase mixed layer depth by ∼10% (up to 20% in the wintertime in midlatitudes), decrease vertical shear in the upper 200 m and alter local midlatitude buoyancy frequency. Generally, the impacts of SGWs upon the aquaplanet ocean are found to be consistent across cooler and warmer climates. We suggest that the implications of these simulations could be relevant to understanding future projections of SGW climate, exoplanetary oceans, and the dynamics of the Southern Ocean mixed layer.

Reducing Systematic Biases Over the Indian Region in CFS V2 by Dynamical Downscaling

AbstractThe usefulness of dynamical downscaling of seasonal reforecasts of Indian Monsoon is explored to address the seasonal mean biases in the reforecasts. Almost all the current generation global coupled models, including the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2, T126 ∼110 km), exhibit systematic mean dry bias over the central Indian region during the summer monsoon season. Cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the Indian Ocean and a weak monsoon circulation due to a colder tropospheric temperature contribute to this dry bias. Such systematic biases restrict the use of skillful forecasts from these models in climate applications (such as agriculture or hydrology). Dynamical downscaling of seasonal forecasts (∼110 km resolution) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to a simple ocean mixed layer model (OML; WRFOML) at 38 km resolution significantly reduces the majority of the systematic biases reported earlier. The seasonal mean dry bias reduces to 16% in WRFOML as compared to 44% (33%) in the CFSv2‐T126 (WRFCTL) over the Indian land region. Warmer SSTs in the Indian Ocean and a more robust monsoon circulation emanating from a realistic simulation of the tropospheric temperature reduced the systematic biases in WRFOML compared to CFSv2‐T126 and WRFCTL. Additionally, category‐wise rainfall distributions are also improved drastically in the downscaled simulations (WRFOML). Downscaled reforecasts with reduced systematic biases have better suitability for climate applications.

Large-Scale State and Evolution of the Atmosphere and Ocean during PISTON 2018

AbstractThe Propagation of Intraseasonal Tropical Oscillations (PISTON) experiment conducted a field campaign in August–October 2018. The R/V Thomas G. Thompson made two cruises in the western North Pacific region north of Palau and east of the Philippines. Using select field observations and global observational and reanalysis datasets, this study describes the large-scale state and evolution of the atmosphere and ocean during these cruises. Intraseasonal variability was weak during the field program, except for a period of suppressed convection in October. Tropical cyclone activity, on the other hand, was strong. Variability at the ship location was characterized by periods of low-level easterly atmospheric flow with embedded westward propagating synoptic-scale atmospheric disturbances, punctuated by periods of strong low-level westerly winds that were both connected to the Asian monsoon westerlies and associated with tropical cyclones. In the most dramatic case, westerlies persisted for days during and after tropical cyclone Jebi had passed to the north of the ship. In these periods, the sea surface temperature was reduced by a couple of degrees by both wind mixing and net surface heat fluxes that were strongly (~200 W m−2) out of the ocean, due to both large latent heat flux and cloud shading associated with widespread deep convection. Underway conductivity–temperature transects showed dramatic cooling and deepening of the ocean mixed layer and erosion of the barrier layer after the passage of Typhoon Mangkhut due to entrainment of cooler water from below. Strong zonal currents observed over at least the upper 400 m were likely related to the generation and propagation of near-inertial currents.

The Effect of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on the Structure and Intensity of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa in the Southwest Indian Ocean

A set of numerical simulations is relied upon to evaluate the impact of air-sea interactions on the behaviour of tropical cyclone (TC) Bejisa (2014), using various configurations of the coupled ocean-atmosphere numerical system Meso-NH-NEMO. Uncoupled (SST constant) as well as 1D (use of a 1D ocean mixed layer) and 3D (full 3D ocean) coupled experiments are conducted to evaluate the impact of the oceanic response and dynamic processes, with emphasis on the simulated structure and intensity of TC Bejisa. Although the three experiments are shown to properly capture the track of the tropical cyclone, the intensity and the spatial distribution of the sea surface cooling show strong differences from one coupled experiment to another. In the 1D experiment, sea surface cooling (∼1 °C) is reduced by a factor 2 with respect to observations and appears restricted to the depth of the ocean mixed layer. Cooling is maximized along the right-hand side of the TC track, in apparent disagreement with satellite-derived sea surface temperature observations. In the 3D experiment, surface cooling of up to 2.5 °C is simulated along the left hand side of the TC track, which shows more consistency with observations both in terms of intensity and spatial structure. In-depth cooling is also shown to extend to a much deeper depth, with a secondary maximum of nearly 1.5 °C simulated near 250 m. With respect to the uncoupled experiment, heat fluxes are reduced from about 20% in both 1D and 3D coupling configurations. The tropical cyclone intensity in terms of occurrence of 10-m TC wind is globally reduced in both cases by about 10%. 3D-coupling tends to asymmetrize winds aloft with little impact on intensity but rather a modification of the secondary circulation, resulting in a slight change in structure.

Impact of larval behaviors on dispersal and connectivity of sea scallop larvae over the northeast U.S. shelf

Sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus) are a highly fecund species that supports one of the most commercially valuable fisheries in the northeast U.S. continental shelf region. Scallop landings exhibit significant interannual variability, with abundances widely varied due to a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors. By coupling a pelagic-stage Individual-Based scallop population dynamics Model (hereafter referred to as Scallop-IBM) with the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) and considering the persistent aggregations over Georges Bank (GB)/Great South Channel (GSC) as source beds, we have examined the dispersion and settlement of scallop larvae over 1978–2016. The results demonstrated that the significant interannual variability of larval dispersal was driven by biophysical interactions associated with scallop larval swimming behaviors in their early stages. The duration, frequency, and stimulus of larval vertical migration in the ocean mixed layer (OML) affected the residence time of larvae in the water column over GB. It thus sustained the persistent aggregations of scallops in the GB/GSC and Southern New England region. In addition to larval behavior in the OML, the larval transport to the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) was also closely related to the intensity and duration of northeasterly wind in autumn. There was no conspicuous connectivity of scallop larvae between GB/GSC and MAB in the past 39 years except in the autumn of 2009. In 2009, the significant larval transport to the MAB was produced by unusually strong northeasterly winds. Ignoring larval behavior in the OML could overestimate the scallop population’s connectivity between GB and the MAB and thus provide an unrealistic prediction of scallop larval recruitment in the region. Both satellite-derived SST and NECOFS show that the northeast U.S. shelf experienced climate change-induced warming. The extreme warming at the shelfbreak off GB tends to intensify the cross-isobath water temperature gradient and enhance the clockwise subtidal gyre over GB. This change can increase the larval retention rate over GB/GSC, facilitating enhanced productivity on GB.